2013 Trade Deadline

[TheLeviathan]

Veras to Detroit for Danry Vasquez and PTBNL.

[cmb0252]

From mlbtraderumors:

 

The Royals scouted the Twins in their recent series against the Mariners, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (

Twitter link). Berardino doesn't list specific names, but remember that Twins GM Terry Ryan didn't mind dealing within the division last summer when he sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.

[Smcginnity]

Hmm...well, this could solve problems for them such as...hmm...not really sure. I live in KC and hear the radio all the time on what they would "need" and really, they don't need much (other than offense). Which, of course, we don't have much offense. I could see Doumit potentially being a fit. Or maybe Plouffe in the right deal (since Moustakas has been awful). We'll see...

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Pure speculation:

 

Has anyone else thought about a potential Perkins-to-Pittsburgh trade now that their closer, Jason Grilli, is on the DL with elbow/forearm pain? It seems like this could be win-win situation for both clubs.

 

From the Twins perspective, the Pirates have 3 or 4 blue-chip prospects that could headline a deal for Perkins, as well as a deep farm system in general, particularly with pitching. The Pirates have had 20+ years of futility, including two recent late-season collapses. They may be desperate enough to break that streak and make the playoffs that they will be willing to overpay a little for bullpen help.

 

From the Pirates perspective, they have a very deep farm system with multiple blue-chip prospects, so they wouldn't leave themselves barren after a trade. Adding Perkins would help offset Grilli's injury, prevent him from rushing back too soon, and once he is back provide an rock solid 8th and 9th inning combination for the playoffs and next season. And if Grilli is out for a lot longer, Perkins is valid replacement. Also, their window of competitiveness is starting right now, so having 3 additional years on Perkins's contract is a positive. Finally, it will send a message from the front office that they are doing whatever they can to avoid another late-season collapse.

 

You forgot possibly one of the biggest reasons that he makes sense for Pittsburgh. He would be pitching in the NL FAARRR away from the Twins. We've rarely played Pittsburgh in the new millenium as well.

[Alex]

If the Twins trade Perkins it has to be for a SS or SP that is going to be in the bigs no later than May. Anything else and I wouldn't be interested.

 

So, you probably don't want to trade Perkins then. Hey, I don't either, but I doubt even the Twins don't value a pitcher who is going to throw 60-70 IP as highly as a pitcher who will throw around 200IP or a one of the most valuable positions in the field.

 

I'd assume that the best type of starting pitcher you could get for Perk is a #4, especially if he is young and under team control. And we have plenty of those.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So, you probably don't want to trade Perkins then. Hey, I don't either, but I doubt even the Twins don't value a pitcher who is going to throw 60-70 IP as highly as a pitcher who will throw around 200IP or a one of the most valuable positions in the field.

 

I'd assume that the best type of starting pitcher you could get for Perk is a #4, especially if he is young and under team control. And we have plenty of those.

 

You can get better than a 4 for Perk. I wouldn't trade him for a 4, the Twins have plenty of 4s.

[drjim]

So, you probably don't want to trade Perkins then. Hey, I don't either, but I doubt even the Twins don't value a pitcher who is going to throw 60-70 IP as highly as a pitcher who will throw around 200IP or a one of the most valuable positions in the field.

 

I'd assume that the best type of starting pitcher you could get for Perk is a #4, especially if he is young and under team control. And we have plenty of those.

 

I don't see the need to trade for merely fair value. Twins need to be overwhelmed - which probably won't happen.

[Smcginnity]

I don't see the need to trade for merely fair value. Twins need to be overwhelmed - which probably won't happen.

 

Disagree. They don't need to be overwhelmed. They need an Alex Meyer type player and another player. Something like a Tyler Duffey or Berrios type player. I don't think that's being overwhelmed but it's fair. And, trading him now is the best time because his value is so high. Relievers are replaceable. Guardado used to be "irreplaceable", then we found Nathan. Nathan used to be "irreplaceable" then we found Perkins (or Capps I guess...). Aguilera used to be "irreplaceable" then we found Guardado. You get the point...

[drjim]

Disagree. They don't need to be overwhelmed. They need an Alex Meyer type player and another player. Something like a Tyler Duffey or Berrios type player. I don't think that's being overwhelmed but it's fair. And, trading him now is the best time because his value is so high. Relievers are replaceable. Guardado used to be "irreplaceable", then we found Nathan. Nathan used to be "irreplaceable" then we found Perkins (or Capps I guess...). Aguilera used to be "irreplaceable" then we found Guardado. You get the point...

 

I would do the trade you proposed, I'm not sure that offer is out there. Maybe the disagreement we have is the definition of "fair".

[Oldgoat_MN]

I'm going to the game tonight.

I expect Morneau and Doumit to be in the lineup.

 

If the Twins are leading by a run or two in the ninth, I expect to see Perkins.

 

And I guess that's OK. It would just mean we didn't get a really good offer for any of them. Alas....

[Kwak]

There is value in keeping a good player! Perkins can be traded next year too--and for the same return as now--and also in 2015! There is no rush to make a deal. As I stated before, trading Perkins now flushes the PR for winning soon, they can wait until 2015 to trade Perkins.

[Smcginnity]

I would do the trade you proposed, I'm not sure that offer is out there. Maybe the disagreement we have is the definition of "fair".

 

Agree. I highly doubt the trade offer is out there. Especially with the recent splurge on trading for relievers/closers. But, I do think a team could get desperate at the last minute today or tomorrow and throw a deal at us like that. Then, I think we need to move on it. But, you are right, highly unlikely at this point

[Badsmerf]

This is the perfect situation for Ryan. He has all the leverage right now. His asking price has to be high.

[AROG]

Here is a trade idea that I haven't heard much on. Justin Morneau to the Rangers. Mitch Moreland is only hitting .240 but does have a fair amount of HR's. Incert Morneau in the lineup at first and let Morland DH against RHP's and someone else against LHP. I see Justin doing great in Texas with the heat and the short porch in right. He is also hitting .290 and can drive in runs. The Rangers aren't getting any good looks at other top hitters and this would be a nice add for them.

 

In return the Twins could get Victor Payano. He is the 5th or 6th best prospect the Rangers have for a starting pitcher. Payano is having a tough year but has all the makings of being a great pitcher. He is 6'6" lefty and throws in the mid 90's. The Twins could take the chance that he learns to repeat his delivery or convert him to bullpen if it doesn't work out as a starter. Either way, it is a good return for Justin and one the Rangers could afford.

[Oxtung]

There is value in keeping a good player! Perkins can be traded next year too--and for the same return as now--and also in 2015! There is no rush to make a deal. As I stated before, trading Perkins now flushes the PR for winning soon, they can wait until 2015 to trade Perkins.

 

Perkins is ripe for regression. It is very rare for relievers to maintain elite levels for many years. So yes, Perkins could be traded in future years, but it would likely be for a lesser package of prospects. Perkins value will never be higher than it currently is.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Perkins is ripe for regression. It is very rare for relievers to maintain elite levels for many years. So yes, Perkins could be traded in future years, but it would likely be for a lesser package of prospects. Perkins value will never be higher than it currently is.

 

Given the return on what relievers have been traded, I'm not sure Perkins should be traded. No thanks if we aren't looking at a top 50 guy.

[Shane Wahl]

Here is a trade idea that I haven't heard much on. Justin Morneau to the Rangers. Mitch Moreland is only hitting .240 but does have a fair amount of HR's. Incert Morneau in the lineup at first and let Morland DH against RHP's and someone else against LHP. I see Justin doing great in Texas with the heat and the short porch in right. He is also hitting .290 and can drive in runs. The Rangers aren't getting any good looks at other top hitters and this would be a nice add for them.

 

In return the Twins could get Victor Payano. He is the 5th or 6th best prospect the Rangers have for a starting pitcher. Payano is having a tough year but has all the makings of being a great pitcher. He is 6'6" lefty and throws in the mid 90's. The Twins could take the chance that he learns to repeat his delivery or convert him to bullpen if it doesn't work out as a starter. Either way, it is a good return for Justin and one the Rangers could afford.

 

I think something like this should be in order. But what "should" be done is rarely was *is* done for the Twins.

[Oxtung]

Given the return on what relievers have been traded, I'm not sure Perkins should be traded. No thanks if we aren't looking at a top 50 guy.

 

When do you think the Twins will have a >30% chance of winning the division?

[nicksaviking]

So Ian Kennedy is available. He's not a free agent until 2016. AZ is trying to move him while he's in a down year which obviously isn't maximizing his value. Normally I'd be suspicious, but with their offseason moves, it's clear AZ is moving guys who don't fit into Kirk Gibson's image. I have no clue if this is true of Kennedy, but I'd be interested. What would it take to land a guy who was once a highly valued pitcher but who currently is in a funk but still has two arb years left? There's likely not a lot of precident for this kind of transaction.

[jorgenswest]

Perkins is ripe for regression. It is very rare for relievers to maintain elite levels for many years. So yes, Perkins could be traded in future years, but it would likely be for a lesser package of prospects. Perkins value will never be higher than it currently is.

 

Let's assume that Ryan is not offered a top starting pitching prospect. Are you saying that Ryan should take the best offer on the table? If the best offer is a B starting pitcher (maybe a Trevor May), should he take it?

 

Which is more likely? Perkins will remain valuable and effective the next three years or a guy like May will have a significant career as a starter under team control.

 

Here is a list of all 30 year old closers since 1992. Many of those that were effective at 30 remained effective the next three years. It is no guarantee. Nor is it a guarantee that a fringe 100 starting pitching prospect will make an impact in the majors.

 

I am not sure which side I stand in this case. A guy like May may not make it as a starter but have a good career as a late inning reliever. On the other hand, maybe that deal or better is still available in the winter.

 

Patience or take the best offer? I am not sure which is better. I am sure that Ryan will criticized whichever direction he selects.

[TheLeviathan]

So Ian Kennedy is available. He's not a free agent until 2016. AZ is trying to move him while he's in a down year which obviously isn't maximizing his value. Normally I'd be suspicious, but with their offseason moves, it's clear AZ is moving guys who don't fit into Kirk Gibson's image. I have no clue if this is true of Kennedy, but I'd be interested. What would it take to land a guy who was once a highly valued pitcher but who currently is in a funk but still has two arb years left? There's likely not a lot of precident for this kind of transaction.

 

Sign me up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

When do you think the Twins will have a >30% chance of winning the division?

 

2015. Problem I see is that GMs don't appear to be willing to give up for Perk what most of us think he should fetch.... I want a prospect that changes the percentage in your question.

[cmb0252]

2015. Problem I see is that GMs don't appear to be willing to give up for Perk what most of us think he should fetch.... I want a prospect that changes the percentage in your question.

 

What fans want in trades, no matter what fan base, is almost never realistic. Unless you are a Rays fan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So it sounds like Peavy is going to the D'backs and Chicago's asking price (per mlbtr) is a top 50 guy rounding out a 3/4 person trade. Is Perk worth the same as Peavy? I'd think so personally... not sure if other GMs are though.

[big dog]

The funny thing to me is that we're basically talking about trying to improve the worst-hitting team around, by trading to trade some hitters. Hmmmm... I just don't see that as a great marketing scheme.

 

Duensing? I just don't see someone offering much for Duensing. Or Burton, or anyone other than Perkins, for that matter. I think we should trade Doumit to open up space in the outfield, but I would not expect to get much (or demand much). Ditto Morneau, though it would make me sad. Not sorry, really, but sad nonetheless.

[old nurse]

So Ian Kennedy is available. He's not a free agent until 2016. AZ is trying to move him while he's in a down year which obviously isn't maximizing his value. Normally I'd be suspicious, but with their offseason moves, it's clear AZ is moving guys who don't fit into Kirk Gibson's image. I have no clue if this is true of Kennedy, but I'd be interested. What would it take to land a guy who was once a highly valued pitcher but who currently is in a funk but still has two arb years left? There's likely not a lot of precident for this kind of transaction.

 

Do you give up May, Meyer or Rosario plus another decent prospect to get Kennedey

[nicksaviking]

Do you give up May, Meyer or Rosario plus another decent prospect to get Kennedey

 

Yeah, May maybe, (ha) the others, probably not. But how much is the question. He's having a down year and was only average last year, AZ doesn't have a lot to bargain with other than those two arb years. If they already hadn't made some at the time head-scratching trades moving Trevor Bauer and Justin Upton, the alert lights would be flashing.

 

The track record based on those trades tells me the demand is fairly unpredicatable leaning toward buyer friendly.

[jorgenswest]

So it sounds like Peavy is going to the D'backs and Chicago's asking price (per mlbtr) is a top 50 guy rounding out a 3/4 person trade. Is Perk worth the same as Peavy? I'd think so personally... not sure if other GMs are though.

 

The value of a starting pitcher has always exceeded the value of a reliever. A number 3 starter will return more in trade than an elite closer. A number 2 will return far more.

[Oxtung]

Let's assume that Ryan is not offered a top starting pitching prospect. Are you saying that Ryan should take the best offer on the table? If the best offer is a B starting pitcher (maybe a Trevor May), should he take it?

 

Which is more likely? Perkins will remain valuable and effective the next three years or a guy like May will have a significant career as a starter under team control.

 

Here is a list of all 30 year old closers since 1992. Many of those that were effective at 30 remained effective the next three years. It is no guarantee. Nor is it a guarantee that a fringe 100 starting pitching prospect will make an impact in the majors.

 

I am not sure which side I stand in this case. A guy like May may not make it as a starter but have a good career as a late inning reliever. On the other hand, maybe that deal or better is still available in the winter.

 

Patience or take the best offer? I am not sure which is better. I am sure that Ryan will criticized whichever direction he selects.

 

I, just like everyone in this discussion, have made some underlying assumptions based on how I perceive the future playing out. For me I don't see the Twins being competitive in 2014 (another 90 loss season), 2015 I think they'll be around .500 and in 2016 we potentially start our window of contention. Of course this all assumes that the prospects pan out. It is entirely possible that we become the Royals and have to restart the rebuild 4 years from now. As such I don't believe Perkins is as valuable an asset as an everyday player or starting pitcher. Since he is likely to decline in production and his contract will only lose value moving forward I see no reason to keep him. I would trade him for the best offer I could find. I would probably also not limit the return to just pitchers, though it would be preferable. Every prospect added increases the probability of the Twins returning to contention in the future.

[nicksaviking]

Mike Beradino says the Royals were scouting the Twins while in Seattle but no one is sure who they were scouting. Danny Knobler says the Royals have shown interest in Gordon Beckham, Howie Kendrick, Ricky Weeks and Kevin Frandsen.

 

MLBTR caught both of these nuggets but did not draw the obvious correlation that the Royals were possibly scouting Brian Dozier.