The Top Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2026: Part 3 (6-10)

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

...The potential for "bust" is pretty high.  And yet, would I trade him, on the theory that he's at peak value?  Um, no.  I want to watch what happens with him because he's so unique, and I want it to happen with my team.

 

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Erod is an example that I would like to sell high on, as I think he has a greater shot at being a bust then a star.   Not sure who to target, but he should be at the top of list of prospects if we make a trade to compete and not rebuild

 

Emmanuel Rodriguez will need to do something pretty special this year to regain peak value. I think the Twins might be able to get a 4th option year on him based on how much time he's missed with injuries, and that could really help.

While I'm not a believer, Emma did make substantial strides in K rate at AAA this year. It's still way too high, but he was able to get the rate down from 37% to 31%. He just doesn't show a lot of game power in AAA, though. An ISO of .166 (average-ish) this year and .130 (pretty light hitting) the year prior. Emma's not a super young prospect anymore, either coming into his age 23 season with 5 years of professional MiLB experience under his belt. We'll see what ST has in store. He's averaged an over 50% K rate in previous invites. That really needs to get down to 30%-ish to show the needed progress.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's circumstantial, but there are what I consider to be supportive of my position. 

First is in regard to his conditioning. SWR has demonstrated his endurance is lacking. He gets pulled after 4-5 innings regularly, often with a velocity drop corresponding with about 80 pitches thrown. It's often cited how SWR wore down late in the year in 2024 after 112.1 innings in the big show (125.2 IP on the season including MiLB) with a 2mph drop off for his average FB in his final 5 starts vs his previous 5. Last season, he also showed reduced velocity at the tail end. His 6 starts prior to his demotion to AAA in July averaged 93.7mph on the fastball. Despite the sparkly ERA, his velo was down to 92.8mph over his last 6 starts coming back to the big show to finish the season out.

Second is his coachability. The Twins coaches had apparently given up on him in 2023. For 2 years there were comments from the front office and coaches about SWR's inability to repeat his mechanics and adjust. He looked absolutely cooked and he was down to his last chance coming into 2024. SWR had to go to the coaches to seek help and almost overnight, once he finally was willing to listen, his mechanics got better and he picked up 3-4mph of velo going from wash out to legitimate rotation prospect. SWR continued to struggle a bit with repeating his mechanics throughout the 2024 campaign, but that's only natural considering the lack of experience with the effort.

Barely adequate. A 4.55 xFIP in 2024, 2 demotions to AAA due to performance problems last year (5/14, 7/28) and a 4.71 xFIP on the 2025 season while averaging just 4.2 IP per start. That's barely adequate in my book.

I don't see him as a legit desired rotation option for a playoff caliber team going forward. Do other teams have worse pitchers in their rotation? Sure. Do they WANT those worse pitchers in the rotation? Absolutely not.

I still consider Richardson as no more than a 5th starter. The big reason being those 4.2 IP per start. What is rarely mentioned is the taxation this does to your BP. That is huge. And no many clubs would not covet Richardson in its rotation. I mean look at the Cubs. Horton, Boyd, Imanga, Taillon and today quite possibly Cabrrera from the Marlins. Then in May/June Steele comes back. Not to mention the have Rea who will end up BP. Again with Richardson being our 6th greatest asset shows me how far the fortunes of this organization have fallen. And to be totally honest I don't think Nick is that far off on this one. Going through these rankings is frankly depressing. Competing in 2026? Forget about it. Ha ha Tom. 

[Nick Nelson]

26 minutes ago, jccracraft said:

Your take on Bux is too low. I kinda get your logic, but if you look at his WAR over the past 5 years, it's been pretty solid. 11th in MVP voting last year. Yes he's 32, but would you trade him for any of the prospects on this list? 

Fair points. I've said in the past that I'm a huge Buxton fan so it's always tempting to rank him higher, but given that this is meant to be a vibes-neutral exercise, I try to push back on that compulsion. Maybe a little too hard. When I think about his value as an asset, the age and injury history are hard to ignore, despite how great he looked last year. 

I will say, per your last question -- there are only three prospects ranking above Buxton on this list (spoiler alert) and they are all of a caliber that, if you were getting them back as the main piece in a Buxton trade, I'd feel a little more okay about it, at least in terms of the value exchange.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's circumstantial, but there are what I consider to be supportive of my position. 

First is in regard to his conditioning. SWR has demonstrated his endurance is lacking. He gets pulled after 4-5 innings regularly, often with a velocity drop corresponding with about 80 pitches thrown. It's often cited how SWR wore down late in the year in 2024 after 112.1 innings in the big show (125.2 IP on the season including MiLB) with a 2mph drop off for his average FB in his final 5 starts vs his previous 5. Last season, he also showed reduced velocity at the tail end. His 6 starts prior to his demotion to AAA in July averaged 93.7mph on the fastball. Despite the sparkly ERA, his velo was down to 92.8mph over his last 6 starts coming back to the big show to finish the season out.

Second is his coachability. The Twins coaches had apparently given up on him in 2023. For 2 years there were comments from the front office and coaches about SWR's inability to repeat his mechanics and adjust. He looked absolutely cooked and he was down to his last chance coming into 2024. SWR had to go to the coaches to seek help and almost overnight, once he finally was willing to listen, his mechanics got better and he picked up 3-4mph of velo going from wash out to legitimate rotation prospect. SWR continued to struggle a bit with repeating his mechanics throughout the 2024 campaign, but that's only natural considering the lack of experience with the effort.

Barely adequate. A 4.55 xFIP in 2024, 2 demotions to AAA due to performance problems last year (5/14, 7/28) and a 4.71 xFIP on the 2025 season while averaging just 4.2 IP per start. That's barely adequate in my book.

I don't see him as a legit desired rotation option for a playoff caliber team going forward. Do other teams have worse pitchers in their rotation? Sure. Do they WANT those worse pitchers in the rotation? Absolutely not.

Lot of speculation here. Thank you.

Twins were pulling SWR after short starts to intentionally keep him from facing a lineup the 3rd time through, weren't they? That's not necessarily anything to do with conditioning. And last season he was coming back from a parasitic infection that caused him to drop a bunch of weight; that's not a conditioning issue, that's after-effects of an injury. 

Would like to see some real evidence that he's not coachable, or that he was on his last chance in 2024. He was a prized prospect who was always super young for his level and promoted aggressively. He struggled in 2023 in his first extended time at AAA (not that unusual) at 22. The Twins have been adjusting his pitches and pitch mix for multiple seasons...that's uncoachable? He's been doing what he was asked.

If you want to argue SWR isn't a frontline, playoff caliber starter...I think you've got some evidence. If you want to argue he's not a 4th or 5th starter on a playoff team, then I think you need to look more closely at the performance of 4th and 5th starters of playoff teams last season. And he just barely turned 25.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

With E-Rod, I thought the question about Walks would have been settled by now, but it still is a giant X-factor. 

In 2025 he walked in 21% of his plate appearances at St Paul. Nobody in the majors walked even 20% of the time, and the two who came closest are bona fide superstar hitters, Judge and Soto.  Is Rodriguez perhaps in their class?  He sure doesn't homer at the rate those two do.  Interestingly, both of these two potential comps walked at a much lower rate when in the minors, so it;'s not as close of a template to follow as one might think.  Rodriguez had even higher walk rates in the lower minors, hard as that is to believe - video game numbers of 29% at single-A Ft Myers.

The guy I know of who did have similar BB% in the minors is our own Edouard Julien. That's a bit of a cautionary tale; Eddie met with success in his first taste of the majors but then pitch selectivity seemed to go haywire for him.

A related X factor for any high-BB prospect is the coming of the challenge system at the major league level.  Maybe Julien will turn things around at the plate if he now has permission to tell the ump, "uh uh, you're squeezing me."  Maybe Rodriguez will benefit from this, from the git-go, and not have to deal with any psychological issues of failure.

What I keep coming back to for Rodriguez is following question: given that no one walks at the rate he does in the majors, what happens to the portion of the plate appearances where the walks surely go away?  They turn into something else, but what?  Strikeouts looking because major league pitchers are just better and the risk he takes looking at a close two-strike pitch is no longer a winning bet?  Strikeouts swinging because he gets into unfavorable counts more often than before?  Base hits because the major league pitchers are coming in with strikes more often and his patience actually pays off?  Home runs, same logic?  Or merely weak fly balls and ground outs, where he's trading walks for contact but it's on the pitcher's terms?  

I honestly don't know what to expect from him.  I'll say this, though: the batting average of .258 this past season at AAA doesn't quite line up with what should be an elite eye for spitting on pitches outside the strike zone.  And he already strikes out a lot. 

The potential for "bust" is pretty high.  And yet, would I trade him, on the theory that he's at peak value?  Um, no.  I want to watch what happens with him because he's so unique, and I want it to happen with my team.

This franchise had a player, whose nickname was "The Walking Man" How many of you know who he was? He is 11th all time in total walks. His lifetime batting average is .254, but due to his propensity to draw walks, his lifetime on base percentage is .394. In 1956 his batting average was only .231, but his on base percentage was .412. This is the lowest batting average for a major league player who had over a.400 on base percentage. His 2,356 put outs are 3rd all time for a 3rd baseman, behind Brooks Robinson and Jimmy Collins. Who can be the first to correctly post this famous player's name?

[ashbury]

55 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

This franchise had a player, whose nickname was "The Walking Man" How many of you know who he was? He is 11th all time in total walks. His lifetime batting average is .254, but due to his propensity to draw walks, his lifetime on base percentage is .394. In 1956 his batting average was only .231, but his on base percentage was .412. This is the lowest batting average for a major league player who had over a.400 on base percentage. His 2,356 put outs are 3rd all time for a 3rd baseman, behind Brooks Robinson and Jimmy Collins. Who can be the first to correctly post this famous player's name?

That's true.  I refreshed my memory and he had a career BB% of 17.6, which is amazing on the face of it but particularly given that he had little to no power so opposing pitchers weren't pitching around him per se.  He had a couple of full seasons at 20+%.  He and Harmon dominate the walks-in-a-season category, and it's hard to think of two more-different guys at the plate.  He was a strong asset to some pretty mediocre Senators (erm, Nationals) squads - more b-r.com WAR for the franchise than Torii Hunter for instance - Byron Buxton passed him up only this year.

[Doc Lenz]

I’m not skeptical of any of those mentioned. Hop they all improve and have great years. 

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Apologies, but if you are saying that the Twins only have 3 players that would definitely play on any other MLB team, that is an absurd statement. Any team in baseball would take Jeffers. Outside of LA, any team would take Ober, Wallner, and Sands on their roster. There are strong arguments to be made for others (Bell, Keaschell, SWR, Lewis)

Do not disregard players because they are not upper-tier.

"The Twins only have one position player of absolute certainty, which makes me believe Byron Buxton belongs at the top of the list. Likewise only Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan rate highly among the pitchers. These lists are always interesting and fun with some thoughtful words attached to the players. I have no quibble with the posts or the order. I am just identifying the obvious 3 true MLB players on the roster who would fit in on any club." - my previous post

Apologies for the confusion. Three players that obviously fit in on any club. Merely adding that the lists are worth a look. We know there are clubs that would take any number of guys. Colorado is one team. I was just highlighting the three who fit anywhere. I think you might agree there may be some teams that might not roster the other 23 players. But again, maybe that is off base. Thinking why the Twins cannot draw any interest from other teams in their rostered players, but obviously that is largely unknown by fans. Again, meant to highlight 3 guys.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The first part of the list, 16-20, made me a little queasy and generally unexcited.  Spots 11-15 made me feel a little better.  Now, 6-10 at least make me feel like there is some potential there.  The two pitchers at the back end are unproven but certainly promising.  Buxton, while frustrating at times, is still Buxton. I'm a big E-Rod fan.  I don't know if his act will play in the majors, but it certainly could if he can stay healthy.  He probably has just as good a shot at Rookie of the Year as Walker Jenkins -- who actually scares me a little. 

I honestly like your take on SWR.  He gets absolutely no love from anyone but still has managed to be a mostly productive pitcher that keeps the back of the rotation from being a big mess.  If he's our #4/5, I'm pleased because it means we've got a pretty good #1-3 (come on Ober!).  He feels like the opposite of Brooks Lee, the guy who everyone "just knew" would be a star who "can't miss" and has proven nothing.  SWR, on the other hand, (and I know he had a good pedigree coming over from Toronto), everyone seems to want to write off as a mere placeholder, and yet, here he is, still holding down a spot in the rotation.  Barring injury, he'll still be in the rotation in 2027 as well, and that's what makes him valuable. 

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Lot of speculation here. Thank you.

Twins were pulling SWR after short starts to intentionally keep him from facing a lineup the 3rd time through, weren't they? That's not necessarily anything to do with conditioning. And last season he was coming back from a parasitic infection that caused him to drop a bunch of weight; that's not a conditioning issue, that's after-effects of an injury. 

Would like to see some real evidence that he's not coachable, or that he was on his last chance in 2024. He was a prized prospect who was always super young for his level and promoted aggressively. He struggled in 2023 in his first extended time at AAA (not that unusual) at 22. The Twins have been adjusting his pitches and pitch mix for multiple seasons...that's uncoachable? He's been doing what he was asked.

If you want to argue SWR isn't a frontline, playoff caliber starter...I think you've got some evidence. If you want to argue he's not a 4th or 5th starter on a playoff team, then I think you need to look more closely at the performance of 4th and 5th starters of playoff teams last season. And he just barely turned 25.

Well, I think I'm in a pretty good position with the evidence I presented vs. you just not wanting it to be true, haha.

[jmlease1]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Well, I think I'm in a pretty good position with the evidence I presented vs. you just not wanting it to be true, haha.

SWR has been a 2+ bWAR pitcher in MLB for 2 consecutive seasons. If you don't think that's a quality backend starter, then I really don't know what to tell you. You can talk about his velocity, conditioning, and xFIP all you want, but at the end of the day teams that finished ahead of us in the standings would have been thrilled to have him take the ball every 5th day because starting pitching is in short supply and a guy that can give you 20+ starts at a league average or better ERA+ is more than most of them get in the 5th slot of the rotation.

But please, keep telling me how it's all in my head.

[Met Stadium Usher]

Hmmm.... the Walking Man.  I yost can't think of his name. (Said in a Scandinavian accent.  😉 )

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

SWR, front line starter! I don't think I've ever heard such a bullish take on the pitcher. Certainly not since he reached AAA several years ago. While SWR did have a great finish to the season, it came with an average exit velocity against him of 92mph (terrible), a 9% barrel rate (terrible) and a 40% hard hit rate (from Statcast, terrible) yet with a miserly .152 BABIP against. He did dramatically increase his K rates, and that's a positive, but he's flashed K rates before. With a track record of over 50 starts as a barely adequate #5 with uninspiring peripherals under his belt, it'll take a lot more than 3-4 lucky games chained together to get me on board. Especially given his history of seemingly having conditioning issues and being difficult to coach.

Emma is a reach in the top 10 at this point as well.

To me, SWR’s stuff doesn’t warrant #2 starter talk. He’ll be age 25 through the ‘26 season, so still young. He’s had steady improvement though and if he can continue to refine his control “in the zone”, he is the #4 starter this year and forward. 2.2 WAR in ‘25 with only 111 innings pitched …….. 2.0 WAR in ‘24 in 133 innings. If the #4 starter can get to 150-160 innings & gives a 2.5 plus WAR it’s a good rotation!

Emma “needs to play” at AAA and show he can remain healthy and productive for more than 4-6 weeks at a time! Moving or demoting a currently similar veteran bat to make room for Emma, & then to have him be hurt 15 days later doesn’t work!

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

SWR has been a 2+ bWAR pitcher in MLB for 2 consecutive seasons...

I can't argue with "scoreboard!" so you've definitely got a solid point on real production by bWAR levels. I have a major issue with bWAR these days. I used to like it way more than fWAR until I looked at Jose Berrios for the Jays vs. Aaron Nola in 2024.

Berrios = 2.3 bWAR on the back of 192.1 IP, 3.60 ERA, 114 ERA+
Nola = 3.7 bWAR on the back of 199.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 117 ERA+

The disconnect makes no sense, and I've run into Baseball Reference broken logic before. Even so, you've got a stronger argument than me saying, I don't like bWAR.

 

[Jeff K]

On 1/7/2026 at 10:19 AM, jmlease1 said:

Can you cite something on SWR having conditioning issues or being hard to coach? Because I don't recall that. 

And if SWR is "barely adequate" as a #5 after his actual performance the last 2 seasons, I would like to know what your standard is for a #5? Cle & Det would have killed to have SWR as their #5 last season.

To quote Meatloaf, "You took the words right out of my mouth".

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I can't argue with "scoreboard!" so you've definitely got a solid point on real production by bWAR levels. I have a major issue with bWAR these days. I used to like it way more than fWAR until I looked at Jose Berrios for the Jays vs. Aaron Nola in 2024.

Berrios = 2.3 bWAR on the back of 192.1 IP, 3.60 ERA, 114 ERA+
Nola = 3.7 bWAR on the back of 199.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 117 ERA+

The disconnect makes no sense, and I've run into Baseball Reference broken logic before. Even so, you've got a stronger argument than me saying, I don't like bWAR.

 

neither WAR metric is perfect, that's for sure. And SWR definitely may have been "lucky"...but at the end of the day, what happened, happened? But it's why a lot of times for pitchers I look at bWAR when I'm trying to describe what happened in a season for a player, and fWAR when I'm trying to project what they might be in the future? There's always a few guys that consistently overperform their xFIP, etc too. I wonder if SWR could end up being one of those guys? (That's a risky thing to bet on, of course) I do think it's interesting that while SWR has overperformed against his xFIP, he's under performed his xERA according to FanGraphs.

Their projection systems have him being above the same or slightly better than last season, which again...seems to be a very solid 4th or 5th starter?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

"The Twins only have one position player of absolute certainty, which makes me believe Byron Buxton belongs at the top of the list. Likewise only Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan rate highly among the pitchers. These lists are always interesting and fun with some thoughtful words attached to the players. I have no quibble with the posts or the order. I am just identifying the obvious 3 true MLB players on the roster who would fit in on any club." - my previous post

Apologies for the confusion. Three players that obviously fit in on any club. Merely adding that the lists are worth a look. We know there are clubs that would take any number of guys. Colorado is one team. I was just highlighting the three who fit anywhere. I think you might agree there may be some teams that might not roster the other 23 players. But again, maybe that is off base. Thinking why the Twins cannot draw any interest from other teams in their rostered players, but obviously that is largely unknown by fans. Again, meant to highlight 3 guys.

Thank you for the clarification, but I think I still disagree with your premise. All of the players I mentioned would be coveted by any other team in baseball (again, excusing LAD from this discussion). Jeffers is probably a top 10-15 catcher in this league, at worst he is somebody's #2. Ober would be (at worst) the 4/5 starter an any other team. Sands would be the (again at worst) the 2nd setup or coveted long-man in any bullpen. Arguments for SWR (again a 4/5 in any rotation), Lewis (top backup), Bell (top backup) could also easily be made.

I do not think that there is a lack of interest from other teams, but they have not been moved for a multitude of other reasons, current public feelings towards the team and ownership being at the top, followed by an internal belief they are closer to competing than the general public feels. A strong argument can be made that the Twins should completely blow this team up and move everyone of value,  but doing so would 100% destroy this already beleaguered fanbase for the next 3-5 years.