BREAKING: Twins Win Third Overall Pick in 2026 MLB Draft Lottery

[weitz41]

The draft is so far off the top guy today may not be a top 10 pick by the draft. The bonus pool money is probably the biggest loss right now and still by the old system we moved up one slot.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, rv78 said:

I predict Falvey will draft a shortstop that will not be capable of playing shortstop at the major league level. Why? Because that is what Falvey does. For me, it's next to impossible to get excited about anything in this organization because Falvey has proven himself to be incompetent at just about everything he does and the Owners still believe in him. That's not a winning combination. They are not trading away the big 3 (Ryan, Lopez, Buxton) and will be adding to contend in 2026. Anyone here who thinks that the players they add, will make this team successful to the point of contending, is a fool. Okay, Falvey and the Owners.......... make me eat my words. I don't think you have a clue of knowing what you need to do.

What percentage of players that make it to the big league that were drafted as a SS become stick at SS?  Anyone know?  My guess would be 15% and that might be high.

[rv78]

19 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What percentage of players that make it to the big league that were drafted as a SS become stick at SS?  Anyone know?  My guess would be 15% and that might be high.

What is the percentage for Falvey? So far it is zero. Lewis failed and Lee hasn't proven himself there yet with many people seriously questioning his ability to succeed there. I guess if you keep trying, your odds of someone actually making it there eventually improve. Like throwing darts or horseshoes. Close most of the time with a rare bullseye or ringer if you get to play long enough. Maybe in another 7 or 8 years he'll get lucky.

[The Great Hambino]

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What percentage of players that make it to the big league that were drafted as a SS become stick at SS?  Anyone know?  My guess would be 15% and that might be high.

I did a quick once-over of the first rounds (excluding comp rounds) from the 2015-2019 drafts, figuring that anyone that was going to get to MLB would have probably debuted by now, and I didn't feel like doing more than five years.

In that time, 23 picks were labeled a shortstop.  By my rough count, 15 of them were eventually moved off of shortstop either in the minors or the majors.  And there's some quality players in that group too, including Alex Bregman, Brice Turang, Nico Hoerner, and Bryson Stott (also, some guy named Royce).  And that's just the first round, where I'd figure you see more elite talent that's more likely to stick at short than in later rounds.

In that same time period, there were a grand total of two players taken with the label of second basemen.  There's a decent argument to be made that they should just be labeled infielder or middle infielder for draft purposes.

Any hand-wringing over taking too many shortstops is pointless.  Anyone with a middle infielder-type profile with the talent to be a high draft pick is very likely the best player on their team at the college or high school level, and shortstop is where amateur coaches put their best (right-handed) players.  The same way most outfielders were likely their high school team's center fielder.  They're not moving them over to second or third because they might not profile as a shortstop at the major league level

[Major League Ready]

11 minutes ago, rv78 said:

What is the percentage for Falvey? So far it is zero. Lewis failed and Lee hasn't proven himself there yet with many people seriously questioning his ability to succeed there. I guess if you keep trying, your odds of someone actually making it there eventually improve. Like throwing darts or horseshoes. Close most of the time with a rare bullseye or ringer if you get to play long enough. Maybe in another 7 or 8 years he'll get lucky.

I don't think they ever believed Lee would was a SS.  However, if the odds of one of them being a SS is 10%, why would you be surprised that 2 attempts did not produce a SS.  Seems the problem is your math.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Kirby -  

Point 1 - Money allocated-  There was a 4 million difference between the 1st pick and the 8th pick in last years draft,   the 3rd pick is 1.5 million less than the 1st pick.   The Twins will have a much larger budge.  Lets say they think Emerson or Lebron are really good prospects,  but they like Boleman just as much and feel comfortable with the SS they have in the system and they can sign him for $1.5 million less than the allotted amount.  They can effectively pick up a really good prep player with there compensatory pick in the second round for $2.5 million.  

Point 2 - A lot of variability can occur between now and draft time.  Injuries, underperformance overperformance.  If you are going to put a lot of your eggs into 1 draft - you A.  want some elite players likely available if that is the plan B.  You want a lot of solid depth if there is underperformance or injuries.  

The Twins had the 11th or 12th worst record at the trade deadline.   

The difference in a 60 level prospect and 55 level prospect or even a 50 level prospect is immense Kirby.   25-30 million of value potentially between those levels.  If we had continued to just play the year,  and the way the draft broke, didn't get a top 6 pick and then all the other spots got filled,  13th might have been the best we could have been this year.  Look at Miami - dropped from 9th to 13th.    

So now it's the allotment? They allegedly blew up their bullpen in 2025 for a draft class that's highly variable, but the real value is the extra spending power they'll have to overpay for a comp pick they have zero idea will be there when it's their turn to make another selection? Wow. 

Colorado and Washington were disqualified from the lottery. The Twins were basically tied with AZ for the 6th worse record on the day of the trade deadline. If the season ended that day, the worst they could've picked was 7th, which would've netted them a FV 60 prospect (same as picking at 3) if that's what they wanted. The Twins had already sold 4 rentals + Correa, all of whom were seeing regular playing time. They were going to maintain their disappointing level of play (up to that point) for the remainder of the season after selling 20% of the roster? Doubtful. Finishing 13th is/was a worst case scenario; they could've won the 1st pick with a 2% chance too if we want to argue extremes. Miami dropping from 9th to 13th is meaningless. 

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So now it's the allotment? They allegedly blew up their bullpen in 2025 for a draft class that's highly variable, but the real value is the extra spending power they'll have to overpay for a comp pick they have zero idea will be there when it's their turn to make another selection? Wow. 

Colorado and Washington were disqualified from the lottery. The Twins were basically tied with AZ for the 6th worse record on the day of the trade deadline. If the season ended that day, the worst they could've picked was 7th, which would've netted them a FV 60 prospect (same as picking at 3) if that's what they wanted. The Twins had already sold 4 rentals + Correa, all of whom were seeing regular playing time. They were going to maintain their disappointing level of play (up to that point) for the remainder of the season after selling 20% of the roster? Doubtful. Finishing 13th is/was a worst case scenario; they could've won the 1st pick with a 2% chance too if we want to argue extremes. Miami dropping from 9th to 13th is meaningless. 

Colorado and Washington were disallowed but were guaranteed the 10th and 11th pick.  They were not tied for 6th.  There was no less than 12 teams at the time that I was tracking.  Go check my tank thread.  You did have several teams bunched together.  Had we kept the group together and than played solid you very well could have seen a repeat of last year of the 12th best odds but dropping to 16th.  Also had we kept the team together with Keashall coming back yes I could have seen us going on run no different than the May run.  When you have lower teams jump you obviously drop and if enough teams drop you then get bumped below Washington and Colorado who had worst records.  Yes we could have jumped up, but you just don’t know with a lottery. Overall the lottery worked pretty good for the Twins all things considered.  The bad outcomes were eliminated.  Fyi - no one can legitimately say the 8th pick is as good as the 1st pick. Even still you can run into situations like the 2023 draft where they said there were 5 elite talents. That was pretty spot on.  
 

I don’t understand your negative view of the 3rd pick. Go listen to the Geek and Gleeman about the value of a high pick in the draft.Listen to the quote that a high pick is better than any of the prospects we received at  deadline. Secondly stating the total draft allotment is more important than the picks. There can be contact with agents regarding the salaries they want. It’s how you you end up with funky drafts like Texas  3 years ago with effectively 2 elite pitchers with Porter being picked in the 4th round for $3.5 million.     A. It’s a strong draft, the third pick should get you an elite prospect that you can’t acquire through trades, and today the draft is a long ways out so stating today’s rankings is how you will pick would obviously not be a smart strategy. With the 3rd pick it opens up options of taken the elite player or there may be a situation where there aremultiple players you like and you can get a really good player cheaper and bank money for a really good HS prospect.  
 

I stated before the goal was a top 3 pick and that’s what they got.  You had a little over 40% chance of a top 2 pick and around a 60% chance of a top 3.  For the odds probabilities we effectively landed where we should have.  Zoll and Falvey have an entire article about it. Alas you seem to be more upset about the trades, management and ownership more than anything.  All I try to figure out is how the team I cheer for can get better.  

 

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Colorado and Washington were disallowed but were guaranteed the 10th and 11th pick.  They were not tied for 6th.  There was no less than 12 teams at the time that I was tracking.  Go check my tank thread.  You did have several teams bunched together.  Had we kept the group together and than played solid you very well could have seen a repeat of last year of the 12th best odds but dropping to 16th.  When you have lower teams jump you obviously drop and if enough teams drop you then get bumped below Washington and Colorado who had worst records.  Yes we could have jumped up, but you just don’t know with a lottery. Overall the lottery worked pretty good for the Twins all things considered.  The bad outcomes were eliminated.  
 

I don’t understand your negative view of the 3rd pick. Go listen to the Geek and Gleeman about the value of a high pick in the draft.Listen to the quote that a high pick is better than any of the prospects we received at  deadline. Secondly stating the total draft allotment is more important than the picks. There can be contact with agents regarding the salaries they want. It’s how you you end up with funky drafts like Texas  3 years ago with effectively 2 elite pitchers.   A. It’s a strong draft, the third pick should get you an elite prospect that you can’t acquire through trades, and today the draft is a long ways out so stating today’s rankings is how you will pick would obviously not be a smart strategy. With the 3rd pick it opens up options of taken the elite player or there may be a situation where there aremultiple players you like and you can get a really good player cheaper and bank money for a really good HS prospect.  
 

I stated before the goal was a top 3 pick and that’s what they got.  Zoll and Falvey have an entire article about it. Alas you seem to be more upset about the trades, management and ownership more than anything.  All I try to figure out is how the team I cheer for can get better.  

 

I said they were DQ'd from the lottery, which they were. I'm looking at Baseball Reference right now. On July 31st, the teams with a worse record than the Twins: AL -Chicago, Sacramento, Baltimore & NL - Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Arizona was 51-58 while Minnesota sat as 51-57 so yes, basically tied. Since Colorado and Washington were ineligible for the lottery, that means the Twins were sitting at 6/7 as far as odds go. I'll ask you again, do you believe that a team that sold it's starting SS, starting LF, starting super utility player + a solid RP and whatever Paddack was competes at the same level moving forward when none of the returns were going to see time at the major league level? I don't. 

If a team that sells 20% of it's roster without adding any viable MLB talent continues to chug along at their post sale pace, and then a bunch of teams with low odds all happen to "win," the lottery and stuff the top 6 picks subsequently sending our Twins spiraling to a pick in the middle of the pack...I mean....what are we doing here? 

I'm not down on having the 3rd pick. I'm down on the idea that it was calculated, at least as far as the upper echelon of the bullpen selloff is concerned. It's a strong class, but hey, if we clear out our best bullpen arms, all of whom have years of control remaining, maybe we can lose enough games in 2025 to maybe get a higher draft pick, to maybe then sign someone under slot and throw the excess $$ at a comp pick that may or may not even be on the board when we pick again. 

Sure, going into the lottery process with the 2nd best odds. That absolutely does not mean their goal on July 31st was to land a top 3 pick in the draft. 

I want the Twins to get better too. I don't believe that gutting a bullpen and attempting to patch a new one together on the fly, with a limited budget, while allegedly "looking to build around the core," achieves that goal. 

[bunsen82]

7 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I said they were DQ'd from the lottery, which they were. I'm looking at Baseball Reference right now. On July 31st, the teams with a worse record than the Twins: AL -Chicago, Sacramento, Baltimore & NL - Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Arizona was 51-58 while Minnesota sat as 51-57 so yes, basically tied. Since Colorado and Washington were ineligible for the lottery, that means the Twins were sitting at 6/7 as far as odds go. I'll ask you again, do you believe that a team that sold it's starting SS, starting LF, starting super utility player + a solid RP and whatever Paddack was competes at the same level moving forward when none of the returns were going to see time at the major league level? I don't. 

If a team that sells 20% of it's roster without adding any viable MLB talent continues to chug along at their post sale pace, and then a bunch of teams with low odds all happen to "win," the lottery and stuff the top 6 picks subsequently sending our Twins spiraling to a pick in the middle of the pack...I mean....what are we doing here? 

I'm not down on having the 3rd pick. I'm down on the idea that it was calculated, at least as far as the upper echelon of the bullpen selloff is concerned. It's a strong class, but hey, if we clear out our best bullpen arms, all of whom have years of control remaining, maybe we can lose enough games in 2025 to maybe get a higher draft pick, to maybe then sign someone under slot and throw the excess $$ at a comp pick that may or may not even be on the board when we pick again. 

Sure, going into the lottery process with the 2nd best odds. That absolutely does not mean their goal on July 31st was to land a top 3 pick in the draft. 

I want the Twins to get better too. I don't believe that gutting a bullpen and attempting to patch a new one together on the fly, with a limited budget, while allegedly "looking to build around the core," achieves that goal. 

You are looking at it wrong. How different were the Twins from the years the Braves won it all.  They were down and out and added to the roster.  Cheap additions but adds none the less. And not selling talent. Last years team had a chance to compete at the highest levels.  After the all star break for whatever reason they melted.  
 

as to teams you are missing Marlins, Diamondbacks, cardinals, Rays, Angels, Giants.  Below them was the A’s, Braves, Orioles, Pittsburg White Sox Colorado and Washington.  They were all bunched within 5 wins on August 15th. So let’s just go with your theory Twins stay pat at 6. They got the Braves lottery balls so they would now have the 9th pick in the MLB draft.  
 

When Zoll and Falvey were talking about at which pick are they breaking stuff, they were obviously counting a return from the draft. They were going to be mad at 5 or higher and disappointed with 4.  They fully calculated losing more games, otherwise there was no point to dismantling the bullpen. Or at the very least Stewart and Varland.  The sell off was strategic. Destroy a part of the team that would tank the season that would be the cheapest and easiest to put back together, even if not the same quality.  
 

The quality of the 2026 draft was already being discussed. Johnson wanted 3 or higher for draft purposes. Meaning as of now he has a clear top 3 in my opinion. Chowolsky, Emerson or a LeBron. LeBron is safer, but for me Emerson is the best talent of the 3.  

[rv78]

16 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think they ever believed Lee would was a SS.  However, if the odds of one of them being a SS is 10%, why would you be surprised that 2 attempts did not produce a SS.  Seems the problem is your math.

Where did I say the odds were 10%? Wasn't me. My Math is fine. Falvey = Zero. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Where did I say the odds were 10%? Wasn't me. My Math is fine. Falvey = Zero. 

Not factually wrong.  Just fails to consider the odds of a player drafted as a SS remaining a short stop.  If two guys have a 15% chance each, the odds of one of them making it is 30%.  You can make the very simplistic conclusion that Falvey has had zero success but that requires you ignore the fact that most players drafted at SS end up playing different positions.  You have to ignore the fact that these players are drafted because SS are generally the best fielders/athletes and it is expected many of them will play a different position if they ever make it to MLB.   

When I look at Lewis and Lee, I certainly don't come to the conclusion Falvey can't pick guys that can play SS because I doubt that was a major consideration when drafting them.  Lee was considered to have slipped to #8 and was considered here and elsewhere to be a good value at 8.  Frankly, I have never liked him and have said so before he ever got to the majors but nobody here was complaining about that pick. 

Should they have picked someone else if they were unsure Lewis could stick at SS.  I don't think so.  I am pretty sure they always had doubts Lewis would stick but his athleticism would allow him to play another position well and everyone believe his bat would play.

If the Falvey sucks conclusion makes you feel good, knock yourself out but it's a very simplistic view.

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So now it's the allotment? They allegedly blew up their bullpen in 2025 for a draft class that's highly variable, but the real value is the extra spending power they'll have to overpay for a comp pick they have zero idea will be there when it's their turn to make another selection? Wow. 

Colorado and Washington were disqualified from the lottery. The Twins were basically tied with AZ for the 6th worse record on the day of the trade deadline. If the season ended that day, the worst they could've picked was 7th, which would've netted them a FV 60 prospect (same as picking at 3) if that's what they wanted. The Twins had already sold 4 rentals + Correa, all of whom were seeing regular playing time. They were going to maintain their disappointing level of play (up to that point) for the remainder of the season after selling 20% of the roster? Doubtful. Finishing 13th is/was a worst case scenario; they could've won the 1st pick with a 2% chance too if we want to argue extremes. Miami dropping from 9th to 13th is meaningless. 

Or....they blew up the bullpen because they think RPs are over rated relative to other players, and are more variable year to year, not to tank. 

In any event, the third pick should be a very exciting player! I'm hoping elite college arm.....

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Not factually wrong.  Just fails to consider the odds of a player drafted as a SS remaining a short stop.  If two guys have a 15% chance each, the odds of one of them making it is 30%.  You can make the very simplistic conclusion that Falvey has had zero success but that requires you ignore the fact that most players drafted at SS end up playing different positions.  You have to ignore the fact that these players are drafted because SS are generally the best fielders/athletes and it is expected many of them will play a different position if they ever make it to MLB.   

When I look at Lewis and Lee, I certainly don't come to the conclusion Falvey can't pick guys that can play SS because I doubt that was a major consideration when drafting them.  Lee was considered to have slipped to #8 and was considered here and elsewhere to be a good value at 8.  Frankly, I have never liked him and have said so before he ever got to the majors but nobody here was complaining about that pick. 

Should they have picked someone else if they were unsure Lewis could stick at SS.  I don't think so.  I am pretty sure they always had doubts Lewis would stick but his athleticism would allow him to play another position well and everyone believe his bat would play.

If the Falvey sucks conclusion makes you feel good, knock yourself out but it's a very simplistic view.

Simplistically speaking, based on the amount of time they both played SS in the minors, (more than any other position by a wide margin) suggests they wanted them to be shortstops in the majors. By the time Lee was drafted I think they knew Lewis was not going to make it there. Thus selecting Lee and again crossing their fingers hoping he'd be good enough. Maybe the verdict on Lee at SS is still to be determined, but there are a lot of people doubting his ability there, not just me. Picking players based on overall athleticism instead of positional strength leads to a team that has a roster full of DH types that play poor defense. That's the Twins for the last 3-4 years now and Falvey's the one picking those players. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Simplistically speaking, based on the amount of time they both played SS in the minors, (more than any other position by a wide margin) suggests they wanted them to be shortstops in the majors. By the time Lee was drafted I think they knew Lewis was not going to make it there. Thus selecting Lee and again crossing their fingers hoping he'd be good enough. Maybe the verdict on Lee at SS is still to be determined, but there are a lot of people doubting his ability there, not just me. Picking players based on overall athleticism instead of positional strength leads to a team that has a roster full of DH types that play poor defense. That's the Twins for the last 3-4 years now and Falvey's the one picking those players. 

I agree with some of this for sure.....as almost every prospect reporter said Lewis was destined for 3rd or CF.....almost as the pick was announced. Heck, they kept Martin at SS, when it was 100% clear he'd never play there. I don't get it at all. Doing the same with Winokur, who will never play SS in MN. 

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Simplistically speaking, based on the amount of time they both played SS in the minors, (more than any other position by a wide margin) suggests they wanted them to be shortstops in the majors. By the time Lee was drafted I think they knew Lewis was not going to make it there. Thus selecting Lee and again crossing their fingers hoping he'd be good enough. Maybe the verdict on Lee at SS is still to be determined, but there are a lot of people doubting his ability there, not just me. Picking players based on overall athleticism instead of positional strength leads to a team that has a roster full of DH types that play poor defense. That's the Twins for the last 3-4 years now and Falvey's the one picking those players. 

I have been critical of their lack of focus on athleticism for a long time.  So, I agree with you in part but a lot of guys failing to stick at SS is the norm.  They picked a guy (miller) that could definitely stick and he could not hit.  They guys that are sure to stick and are great defensively is a very small subset.  I think there are a lot of guys picked that every teams hope they can make into a major league SS with the knowledge these same guys with a good bat can play good defense in a different position.  That's a lot better than a guy who can't stick at a corner OF spot because the only spot for him is DH.  Point being there is a good fallback position for a failed SS which is why so many of them are drafted.  It would be interesting to see the number of SS drafted compared to other positions.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You are looking at it wrong. How different were the Twins from the years the Braves won it all.  They were down and out and added to the roster.  Cheap additions but adds none the less. And not selling talent. Last years team had a chance to compete at the highest levels.  After the all star break for whatever reason they melted.  
 

as to teams you are missing Marlins, Diamondbacks, cardinals, Rays, Angels, Giants.  Below them was the A’s, Braves, Orioles, Pittsburg White Sox Colorado and Washington.  They were all bunched within 5 wins on August 15th. So let’s just go with your theory Twins stay pat at 6. They got the Braves lottery balls so they would now have the 9th pick in the MLB draft.  
 

When Zoll and Falvey were talking about at which pick are they breaking stuff, they were obviously counting a return from the draft. They were going to be mad at 5 or higher and disappointed with 4.  They fully calculated losing more games, otherwise there was no point to dismantling the bullpen. Or at the very least Stewart and Varland.  The sell off was strategic. Destroy a part of the team that would tank the season that would be the cheapest and easiest to put back together, even if not the same quality.  
 

The quality of the 2026 draft was already being discussed. Johnson wanted 3 or higher for draft purposes. Meaning as of now he has a clear top 3 in my opinion. Chowolsky, Emerson or a LeBron. LeBron is safer, but for me Emerson is the best talent of the 3.  

Vastly different. Atlanta was a 90+ win team for multiple seasons, with elite young talent leading the charge for years prior to that WS title. They continued to be a good team well after that run and despite a down 2025 they are likely still a very good team next season. The Twins had missed the postseason entirely 3 of the previous 4 seasons and they were playing middling at best baseball even at the ASB. It's apples and oranges. 

Uh huh, and how many of those teams in that group of 13 sold 5 or more MLB players at the deadline? 

Do you have a link to that article where Zoll and Falvey are on record saying they sold off the bullpen because they knew it'd net them a top 3 pick? Lol, yeah, they wanted a top 3 pick when they went in knowing they had the 2nd best odds for #1. If the Twins ended up at 4 we'd be hearing about how top 4 was the goal. I'll say it one last time, sitting here now, and shifting the motivating factor for the teardown to draft position (or allotment?) is just post hoc nonsense. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or....they blew up the bullpen because they think RPs are over rated relative to other players, and are more variable year to year, not to tank. 

In any event, the third pick should be a very exciting player! I'm hoping elite college arm.....

Sub easily replaced for overrated and we're in agreement. 

[bunsen82]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Vastly different. Atlanta was a 90+ win team for multiple seasons, with elite young talent leading the charge for years prior to that WS title. They continued to be a good team well after that run and despite a down 2025 they are likely still a very good team next season. The Twins had missed the postseason entirely 3 of the previous 4 seasons and they were playing middling at best baseball even at the ASB. It's apples and oranges. 

Uh huh, and how many of those teams in that group of 13 sold 5 or more MLB players at the deadline? 

Do you have a link to that article where Zoll and Falvey are on record saying they sold off the bullpen because they knew it'd net them a top 3 pick? Lol, yeah, they wanted a top 3 pick when they went in knowing they had the 2nd best odds for #1. If the Twins ended up at 4 we'd be hearing about how top 4 was the goal. I'll say it one last time, sitting here now, and shifting the motivating factor for the teardown to draft position (or allotment?) is just post hoc nonsense. 

Atlanta's record at the trade deadline was below .500 (51-52).   They had to trade for outfield help due to significant injury- including Soler, our own Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.  Ronald Acuna suffered torn ACL on July 10th, they were down Mike Soroko, Marcell Ozuna who was on administrative leave.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-2021-trade-deadline-moves-world-series-title

It appears you are no longer having a serious discussion or want to look at actual facts or similar scenarios.  You have a gripe and you want it known.  Why you attacked my stance i have no idea.  The more and more I have read there are currently 3 elite prospects,  possible 4 - but there is a lot of solid depth behind it.   

At no point did I say they traded all the bullpen because it would net them a top 3 pick (I said the goal of tanking was to secure a top 5 pick link in 2023 go look at my tank thread). What I have said,  the losing (due to selling off the bullpen) resulted in poor play,  a much lower record and the 2nd odds that resulted in the 3rd pick - for a lottery that in general has a ton of variability.  My initial thoughts at the deadline was they were shooting for a top 5 pick.    The specific scenarios for this year resulted in a team with the 4th worst record getting the 3rd best pick.  All in all in seems to have worked out ok.    Believe what you want - along with the prospects the goal was to get a high pick to get another elite player into the system.  Johnson, Zoll and Falvey have all mentioned they are wanting a high pick to get one of the elite players in the draft.  They won't say they specifically tanked for it - read between the lines buddy.  

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Atlanta's record at the trade deadline was below .500 (51-52).   They had to trade for outfield help due to significant injury- including Soler, our own Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.  Ronald Acuna suffered torn ACL on July 10th, they were down Mike Soroko, Marcell Ozuna who was on administrative leave.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-2021-trade-deadline-moves-world-series-title

It appears you are no longer having a serious discussion or want to look at actual facts or similar scenarios.  You have a gripe and you want it known.  Why you attacked my stance i have no idea.  The more and more I have read there are currently 3 elite prospects,  possible 4 - but there is a lot of solid depth behind it.   

At no point did I say they traded all the bullpen because it would net them a top 3 pick.  What I have said,  the losing (due to selling off the bullpen) resulted in poor play,  a much lower record and the 2nd odds that resulted in the 3rd pick - for a lottery that in general has a ton of variability.  My initial thoughts at the deadline was they were shooting for a top 5 pick.    The specific scenarios for this year resulted in a team with the 4th worst record getting the 3rd best pick.  All in all in seems to have worked out ok.    Believe what you want - along with the prospects the goal was to get a high pick to get another elite player into the system.  Johnson, Zoll and Falvey have all mentioned they are wanting a high pick to get one of the elite players in the draft.  They won't say they specifically tanked for it - read between the lines buddy.  

So an uber talented roster experiences injuries/suspensions and is able to weather the storm via trades and win a WS. What does that have to do with the Twins? Are you trying to argue that they're a similar roster? I hope not.

"I still stand by trading all the relievers was to tank for better draft picks in a really good draft." That's a direct quote from one of your posts in another thread. Look at the bolded, you're contradicting yourself within your own paragraphs at this point. 

Still waiting on that article btw...

[bunsen82]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So an uber talented roster experiences injuries/suspensions and is able to weather the storm via trades and win a WS. What does that have to do with the Twins? Are you trying to argue that they're a similar roster? I hope not.

"I still stand by trading all the relievers was to tank for better draft picks in a really good draft." That's a direct quote from one of your posts in another thread. Look at the bolded, you're contradicting yourself within your own paragraphs at this point. 

Still waiting on that article btw...

My stance was I didn’t want them to trade. That was a roster that could win a WS. You had the pitching. You needed hitting to get hot. I would argue the roster they had was not much different than ours, go look at their WS roster, their outfield they got for peanuts, other teams effectively gave them away. At this point you don’t understand facts.  You can’t acknowledge Atlanta was under .500 when they won the World Series.  If you aren’t going to get in the playoffs and you decide to sell there is an advantage to tanking the second half and getting a better pick which they did. It helps your long term outlook of trying to be successful, I’m done arguing with someone who wants to be blatantly ignorant.  It’s a good thing you don’t run an organization. 
 

If you and USAchief don’t think the second half was tanking then what the hell do you call it.  Falvey said it improved the team in the short term. Now that was a load of BS. 

[bunsen82]

https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/10/23/16517230/the-astros-are-proof-that-tanking-works

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

My stance was I didn’t want them to trade. That was a roster that could win a WS. You had the pitching. You needed hitting to get hot. I would argue the roster they had was not much different than ours, go look at their WS roster, their outfield they got for peanuts, other teams effectively gave them away. At this point you don’t understand facts.  You can’t acknowledge Atlanta was under .500 when they won the World Series.  If you aren’t going to get in the playoffs and you decide to sell there is an advantage to tanking the second half and getting a better pick which they did. It helps your long term outlook of trying to be successful, I’m done arguing with someone who wants to be blatantly ignorant.  It’s a good thing you don’t run an organization. 
 

If you and USAchief don’t think the second half was tanking then what the hell do you call it.  Falvey said it improved the team in the short term. Now that was a load of BS. 

The Braves had 3 guys (would've been 4 if Acuna didn't get hurt) post the type of season for which Twins fans want to immortalize Buxton. Dansby Swanson wasn't among that trio, and he still posted as much WAR as Jeffers, Lewis, and Wallner combined. Do we really need to continue down this path? Acuna getting hurt and Atlanta winning the WS is a testament to HOW GOOD THEIR ROSTER WAS.

So this FO just blew up a WS caliber roster, but it's ok because they weren't going to make the playoffs last season? Somebody should've told Atlanta about that strategy, it's about time they start unloading some of those guys with years of team control left.

I don't think selling rentals at the deadline during a lost season constitues tanking. Putting a position player on the mound in the 8th inning down 10 runs isn't the same thing as putting that player on the mound to start a game. As for the arms with team control, I think it was a combo of cost savings and an area they (Falvey) felt they could rebuild on the fly. 

[bunsen82]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 Acuna getting hurt and Atlanta winning the WS is a testament to HOW GOOD THEIR ROSTER WAS.

 

Pitchers - Ian Anderson, Jesse Chavez, Max Fried, Luke Jackson, Dylan Lee, Chris Martin, Matzek, Minter, Morton, Smith, Smyly,  Right

I don't think you realize how similar that is to the Twins - 2 really good starting pitchers a 3rd ok,  a good back in bullpen - the rest meh.   

Infielders - Adrianza, Albies, Arcia, Freeman, Riley Swanson

Twins most likely infield - Keaschall, Correa, France Lewis  

France is the weakspot - had I been a manager I would have picked up a more legit 1st base

Outfield -Duvall, Gore, Heredia, Pederson,  Rosario, Soler -  Duvall (the best a 1.7 WAR before being traded - for wait for it  Alex Jackson), Rosario (.4 WAR Cleveland traded him for Sandoval who they cut and cash),  Soler was hitting .192 for Kansas City,  Joc Pederson from the cubs for Bryce Ball.  

Twins - Buxton, Bader,  Wallner/Larnach 

Twins win this hands down with quality defense  

Catcher - Contreras D"Arnaud

Twins - Jeffers Vazquez

Advantage Braves

[bunsen82]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 

So this FO just blew up a WS caliber roster, but it's ok because they weren't going to make the playoffs last season? Somebody should've told Atlanta about that strategy, it's about time they start unloading some of those guys with years of team control left.

I don't think selling rentals at the deadline during a lost season constitues tanking. Putting a position player on the mound in the 8th inning down 10 runs isn't the same thing as putting that player on the mound to start a game. As for the arms with team control, I think it was a combo of cost savings and an area they (Falvey) felt they could rebuild on the fly. 

1.  What the Braves did was historic.  The Braves odds to win the WS at the start of the playoffs was +1400. 

There odds on July 31st  to win the WS was .008% .  They only had an 11.9% chance to get to the playoffs.  There was massive calls for the Braves to sell their rentals.  The fact they completely defied the odds was crazy.  

The only thing I will say about the Twins last year was team chemistry.  It was an absolute mess.  Between Correa, Jax, ect I am not sure you could have gotten everyone on the same page to win.  Just look at Paddacks comment once being traded to Detroit.  

Selling off rentals when not expected to make the playoffs is fine.  Trading the entire bullpen that you possibly could - is a more sinister plot and manipulation.   They didn't trade Topa because he was on the injury list.  I can't remember the reasoning on Sands.  Even if you can get cost savings for the rest of the year and rebuild on the fly - you are still doing it for a reason and money isn't the primary issue.  

If you followed the Houston Astros or even the Philedalphia 76ers,  this is almost exactly out of their playbook for tanking.  We just did it for the last part of the season rather than the entire season.  It really doesn't change the math much. 

We obviously won't agree so both of us probably just need to move on.  

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Pitchers - Ian Anderson, Jesse Chavez, Max Fried, Luke Jackson, Dylan Lee, Chris Martin, Matzek, Minter, Morton, Smith, Smyly,  Right

I don't think you realize how similar that is to the Twins - 2 really good starting pitchers a 3rd ok,  a good back in bullpen - the rest meh.   

Infielders - Adrianza, Albies, Arcia, Freeman, Riley Swanson

Twins most likely infield - Keaschall, Correa, France Lewis  

France is the weakspot - had I been a manager I would have picked up a more legit 1st base

Outfield -Duvall, Gore, Heredia, Pederson,  Rosario, Soler -  Duvall (the best a 1.7 WAR before being traded - for wait for it  Alex Jackson), Rosario (.4 WAR Cleveland traded him for Sandoval who they cut and cash),  Soler was hitting .192 for Kansas City,  Joc Pederson from the cubs for Bryce Ball.  

Twins - Buxton, Bader,  Wallner/Larnach 

Twins win this hands down with quality defense  

Catcher - Contreras D"Arnaud

Twins - Jeffers Vazquez

Advantage Braves

Austin Riley posted more WAR by HIMSELF than the Twins entire starting IF, including C. Of the top five WAR producers amongst the two teams, 4 of them were Braves, and Acuna didn't even play the 2nd half. I don't care enough to compare how similar the pitching situation was, because I don't have to when the gap between position players is this wide. The position player talent isn't even in the same stratosphere. I'm embarrassed for you at this point...

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

1.  What the Braves did was historic.  The Braves odds to win the WS at the start of the playoffs was +1400. 

There odds on July 31st  to win the WS was .008% .  They only had an 11.9% chance to get to the playoffs.  There was massive calls for the Braves to sell their rentals.  The fact they completely defied the odds was crazy.  

The only thing I will say about the Twins last year was team chemistry.  It was an absolute mess.  Between Correa, Jax, ect I am not sure you could have gotten everyone on the same page to win.  Just look at Paddacks comment once being traded to Detroit.  

Selling off rentals when not expected to make the playoffs is fine.  Trading the entire bullpen that you possibly could - is a more sinister plot and manipulation.   They didn't trade Topa because he was on the injury list.  I can't remember the reasoning on Sands.  Even if you can get cost savings for the rest of the year and rebuild on the fly - you are still doing it for a reason and money isn't the primary issue.  

If you followed the Houston Astros or even the Philedalphia 76ers,  this is almost exactly out of their playbook for tanking.  We just did it for the last part of the season rather than the entire season.  It really doesn't change the math much. 

We obviously won't agree so both of us probably just need to move on.  

A team that had played at a 90+ win pace the previous 3 seasons breaking through and winning the WS was historic. Ok...

Oh, a shrinking budget isn't the motivating factor for selling Jax or Duran? Falvey just couldn't resist the chance to gamble on a high 1st round pick in next years draft? C'mon. 

Yeah, go ask 76ers fans about the process, Ben Simmons, Embiid, ect. Lots of good vibes there. Hey look at Houston, now go look at Pittsburgh. They should be loaded right? All that losing, they should have a treasure trove of young talent. Is "tank like Houston," the new "be the Rays," on this board? Are the Twins going to develop all this young talent after tanking? This FO has a pretty poor track record of identifying and developing talent. Is ownership going to spend, not only to keep that home grown talent around, but to supplement around that group? This part gets conveniently left out of the conversation all the time. Houston went from a bottom 3 payroll to being consistently in the top 10, sometimes top 5. 

[Mike Sixel]

Draft Man: How does the top of this draft class compare to last year’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel like the top tier is two or three players deep. I bet a couple pitchers emerge in the spring and will join them. Probably a little shallower right now than average.