Passan: Buxton Willing To Waive No-Trade Clause

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That is a wildly high price to pay. Juan Soto (and Josh Bell) returned Luke Voit, C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell, James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, and Jarlin Susana. 

Voit and Bell are essentially a wash, I think, so I'd call it Soto for Abrams, Hassell, Wood, Gore, and Susana. Gore and Abrams had already graduated so they're a little tough to gage in terms of prospect rankings, but the shine had come off Gore to where he was off most top 100 lists all together before his debut, but Abrams was a top 10-15 global prospect going into that 2022 season. Hassell was a top 50 guy then and Wood was a top 100 guy. Susana was a very low-level flier (looking quite good these days). 

So, I'd say 23-year-old Juan Soto didn't even bring back 3 top 50 guys. He brough back 3 top 100 guys and 2 other very well thought of guys, but not 3 top 50. 

Getting three top 50 prospects for Byron Buxton should win Falvey the executive of the year award the second that deal is approved by the league.

that was my thought.......

[Riverbrian]

With that said. Seriously... I don't care what his age 35 season looks like. He's one of us. 

Message to Byron. Please Stay!

Message to the Twins front office. Don't do it just tell Buck that you'll listen but you belong in Minnesota and I wouldn't expect a deal. There will be Byron Buxton events at Target Field until he is 100 years old. 

In this day in age... Players who play for one team is so rare. Buxton needs to be one of those rare guys. One of the very few. He gets traded. He won't be rare. He will just be a run of the mill good player like the many in the history of the sport.   

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Off the top of my head.

Johan Santana had a NTC

The Mets had to negotiate a 6 year deal prior to the trade or something like that? 150 million or so. I don't remember exactly and I don't remember what he was making with the Twins but it was nowhere near the 20 plus million AAV with the Mets. 

I see the Buxton news (if you call it that) differently.

I've said this before.

If I was in Buxton's shoes. I've been a Twins fan since before I was born in 1965. I wouldn't want to play for any other team. That's how big a Twins fan I am and I am a loyal guy... have always been.

However... despite all of that... I would let the club know that I would... Yeah... Of course consider waiving my NTC if the team was willing to blow my doors off.

It will be the only chance for Buxton to renegotiate his (what many call) team friendly deal. He's coming off his only healthy season. It would kind of naive to not at least consider waiving it without hearing what other teams are willing to offer you to waive it and play for them.    

Being inflexible would be a mistake. I can only guess but if the Mets are willing to increase his AAV and add an extra year... what you really turn down 55 million for Minnesota loyalty? He's certainly not getting anything like that with his next contract. 

Now... the other side of this is the Twins. If the Mets or Phillies agreed to add an extra year and increase his AAV significantly. They won't give the Twins the talent back in return for a trade.

So if I'm the Twins... I won't take the trade. You are better off with Buxton remaining and hopefully retiring a Twin. 

All we can do as fans is endure the rumors until something happens. Buxton will have to express to the Twins what he would require so they can negotiate a trade with the new parameters but the negotation hasn't happened yet and those agents might turn around and say... Yeah... that's what I told the Twins but to live in New York... I'm going to need more and now the Mets don't like the trade.  

In the end... if he leaves... he leaves. The franchise will go on. But... a lot of things have to be sorted out and yeah... he probably won't get that statue in the plaza. 

One more thing... in regards to his NTC rights. If he waives it... he is unprotected for the next two years. He can list 5 teams and that's it. He might take that deal with the Dodgers but the Dodgers can turn around and trade him to Pittsburgh. 

 

Santana was on an expiring deal. That's not the same thing as adding 10 mil a year to an existing deal. I don't doubt Buxton could ask for something, I just don't see him going from pounding the table that he won't waive the no trade to then turning it into a straight up cash grab. 

And I'm not saying he'll be traded or that this report is any kind of proof of anything. I'm just speaking in what I think it looks like if he were to waive it. I think he only waives it if he's convinced this team is going to be a complete joke and then he wants to go chase a ring. If that's the situation I don't see him making it harder to trade him. 

[Riverbrian]

48 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

In other article on Twins Daily it was stated he reaches the 10-5 with the beginning of the 2027 season. I will admit I don't know the exact date. In any event I hope Buck stays. He may ask for a trade based on what happens with Ryan and/or Lopez. It is a tough time to be a Twins fan.

I believe it is at the conclusion of 2026.

According to roster resource his current service time sits at 9.160. He will be over the 10 year mark before the year is out. 

I'm pretty sure it's why this NTC nuance was negotiated into the contract at this particular juncture.

Why would the Twins put it there... because if he waives his no trade rights... the no trade clause lowers trade value. It's basically the Twins saying... well if you waive the NTC to leave... we don't need the full NTC hamstringing a potential trade at the end of a contract when talent is typically waning.

And Byron agreed to those terms.   

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

He might actively want to be traded.  He also might just be testing the waters on what his options might be if he were to waive it.  He's not making any firm commitments; he can at any time say "no thanks" to whatever's presented to him.  Plus, the Twins likely aren't going to seriously entertain any offers if they don't think he'd be willing to waive it, so he would need to make his willingness known in order to know what those offers might be.

So I don't think being willing to waive it makes him the Meesta Meesta lady from Happy Gilmore.  It's just a way to make the most informed decision he can.

I also don't think he'd be able to get bumped up to his free agent market price since that would remove any surplus value in obtaining him, unless the market for centerfielders really dries up and a free spender gets desperate.  He would likely accept something below market since it would still represent an increase.  Besides, the contract he signed was pretty unique in that its base value was well below market but still included a full no-trade.  It might be hard to find a historical comp for that kind of a deal.

I agree. I'm not saying this report is a sign he wants out or anything like that. I'm simply saying that if it gets to the point where he's waiving his no trade I believe it's because he actively wants out. I believe he's meant every word he's said publicly about wanting to be here his whole career, but I also believe that if he knows this team is going to be a joke for the rest of his career he'd be willing to reconsider that stance and he'd want to go to a contender. And, if thats the case, I don't think he's then going to turn around and make a bunch of extravagant demands that make it harder to trade him.

I just think that if it gets to the point that he's being traded its because he actively wants out and he'll prefer picking his destination to making demands on a new contract. 

[Riverbrian]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Santana was on an expiring deal. That's not the same thing as adding 10 mil a year to an existing deal. I don't doubt Buxton could ask for something, I just don't see him going from pounding the table that he won't waive the no trade to then turning it into a straight up cash grab. 

And I'm not saying he'll be traded or that this report is any kind of proof of anything. I'm just speaking in what I think it looks like if he were to waive it. I think he only waives it if he's convinced this team is going to be a complete joke and then he wants to go chase a ring. If that's the situation I don't see him making it harder to trade him. 

I can research it tonight and see if I can come up with examples.

Until then... All I can say is that I'm renegotiating and whatever the team is willing to pay will determine if I'm ok with everything I give up. And... I personally believe that he gives up a lot. Beyond his 10-5 status. It would be awesome to be Joe Mauer one club career player.    

In your scenario... the assumption that he is pissed and just wants out. Well Yeah... He isn't going to let a renegotiation block the exit door. He's gone if the Twins comply and that will depend on the return to the Twins.  

I've never met Byron before... but I think he's smart or at least has a smart agent who is going to look out for his best interest.

I'm certainly not going to relive the 2018 Byron Buxton is gone over service time manipulation wildfire that paralyzed Twins daily.   

[tony&rodney]

Cody Christie put up yet another Buxton to NYM post. 

I'm wondering what people see as his value because the BBTV seems to have people convinced that Buxton has relatively low value, which is reall surprising to me. I guess I'm asking to make sense of the value of a Silver Slugger winning All Star centerfielder who is on a pretty reasonable contract for the next three years.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I can research it tonight and see if I can come up with examples.

Until then... All I can say is that I'm renegotiating and whatever the team is willing to pay will determine if I'm ok with everything I give up. And... I personally believe that he gives up a lot. Beyond his 10-5 status. It would be awesome to be Joe Mauer one club career player.    

In your scenario... the assumption that he is pissed and just wants out. Well Yeah... He isn't going to let a renegotiation block the exit door. He's gone if the Twins comply and that will depend on the return to the Twins.  

I've never met Byron before... but I think he's smart or at least has a smart agent who is going to look out for his best interest.

I'm certainly not going to relive the 2018 Byron Buxton is gone over service time manipulation wildfire that paralyzed Twins daily.   

My point is simply that I don't see there being more than 1 scenario in which Byron Buxton waives his no trade clause. I don't think he has interest in going after a big pay day and using his NTC to make that happen. I don't think there's a scenario other than him simply deciding the Twins are going full on rebuild, trading Lopez, Ryan, whoever, and the team is going to be an absolute disaster around him. That's my point. If that's the only reason he's leaving then he's not demanding anything, he's just trying to get to a place he's happy to be.

My argument is simply that I think if he's waiving his NTC it is telling us that he flat out wants out of Minnesota. I don't think there's any other conversation about it. I don't think the Twins could convince him to be traded if he doesn't want to be. And I don't think they're trying to convince him of that. I'm not trying to predict if he's being traded, if he wants to be traded, where he'd be traded to, or what he'd be traded for with this line of discussion. I am simply saying that I believe that if it comes to the point that Byron Buxton is being traded from the Minnesota Twins it is because he actively wants out and he isn't going to put any contract negotiations in the way of that. I don't believe that he has any desire to use his NTC as leverage for a new deal. I think his only plan with the NTC is to direct where he goes if he ever gets to the point where he's so turned off by this organization that he no longer has any desire to be here.

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

My point is simply that I don't see there being more than 1 scenario in which Byron Buxton waives his no trade clause. I don't think he has interest in going after a big pay day and using his NTC to make that happen. I don't think there's a scenario other than him simply deciding the Twins are going full on rebuild, trading Lopez, Ryan, whoever, and the team is going to be an absolute disaster around him. That's my point. If that's the only reason he's leaving then he's not demanding anything, he's just trying to get to a place he's happy to be.

My argument is simply that I think if he's waiving his NTC it is telling us that he flat out wants out of Minnesota. I don't think there's any other conversation about it. I don't think the Twins could convince him to be traded if he doesn't want to be. And I don't think they're trying to convince him of that. I'm not trying to predict if he's being traded, if he wants to be traded, where he'd be traded to, or what he'd be traded for with this line of discussion. I am simply saying that I believe that if it comes to the point that Byron Buxton is being traded from the Minnesota Twins it is because he actively wants out and he isn't going to put any contract negotiations in the way of that. I don't believe that he has any desire to use his NTC as leverage for a new deal. I think his only plan with the NTC is to direct where he goes if he ever gets to the point where he's so turned off by this organization that he no longer has any desire to be here.

There is no way that I can agree or disagree with you. I simply don't know what Byron thinks or feels. 

I can only assume and what I assume is this. 

1. This may be coming from the Twins telling Byron they would like to consider trades. It may be coming from Byron himself. I assume that I don't know.  

2. If he is making an emotional decision. He probably has a smart adviser to bring him down to earth so everything is considered. 10-5 Rights. Chances of Winning, Taxes, Legacy so the decision is rational. 

3. I assume that the front office would be somewhat transparent with his agent or him directly. At least as much as they can be. He and his agent will have an idea what is about to happen or at least could happen. We are going this direction... would you like to be a part of our plans? If not, we can have conversations with clubs.

4. It's smart to have options presented to you by not closing the door on anything at all. It's smart to be at least willing to listen to what life would be like for him in the Bronx. 

5. If he's going to waive the no-trade clause... he's renegotiating the contract. Not doing that would be... I won't say Stupid... but I'd say not a good move and think stupid in my head.  

6. If he is traded... there is no guarantees in life. He could accept a deal to the Mets and watch everything fall apart. If he doesn't get a full trade for the remaining two years. The Mets could trade him to the Pirates. He could get hurt again... He could struggle and watch the Mets trade for Pete Crow Armstrong to replace him. 

7. Ergo Propter Hoc.

I just don't know but I'm not willing to torture myself with a repeat of 2018. 

I hope he stays and I certainly don't read anything into this. 

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Cody Christie put up yet another Buxton to NYM post. 

I'm wondering what people see as his value because the BBTV seems to have people convinced that Buxton has relatively low value, which is reall surprising to me. I guess I'm asking to make sense of the value of a Silver Slugger winning All Star centerfielder who is on a pretty reasonable contract for the next three years.

I think a guy like Buxton breaks the BBTV algorithm.  His talent and health make him super high-risk, high-reward, so his average outcome might fall in the Ober range, but his 90th percentile outcome blows Ober out of the water.  The rich contenders that would be interested in Buxton can afford to make that bet, while the algorithm makes assumes the prospective buyer is as likely to be the Marlins as the Dodgers.  At least that's how I make sense of it in my head

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Cody Christie put up yet another Buxton to NYM post. 

I'm wondering what people see as his value because the BBTV seems to have people convinced that Buxton has relatively low value, which is reall surprising to me. I guess I'm asking to make sense of the value of a Silver Slugger winning All Star centerfielder who is on a pretty reasonable contract for the next three years.

Age and Injury Risk. 

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Age and Injury Risk. 

Byron didn't look very old last season, did he? The injuries may have healed and it is very possible that Buxton has found a way to keep on the field. When I look at the number of prospects who miss a month here and a week there with various injuries, it sure seems like almost everyone is a risk. Years of control and salary then are important. Buxton is not likely to be high on the list for Milwaukee, Kansas City, or Cleveland because of age and injury risk. Unfortunately for those of us that want Buck to remain a Twin, teams that have money can look at Byron for what he can provide next year as compared to others. Teams that need an outfielder will be interested and teams that need a centerfielder will be very interested. So look around MLB and ask yourself a question. Who has the money to risk for an All Star centerfielder who still can run, throw, and hit with just about anyone?

I'll say it again, if the Twins trade Byron Buxton they need to make the teams bid it up, up, up. I don't know the price but 5 WAR players are not sitting on the porches in my neighborhood.

[Riverbrian]

@tony&rodney

I was just answering the question on why BBTV has a lower trade value. 

Every contending team should be interested in Byron Buxton. That isn't even worth debate but how much will they pay to get him is the question. Would the Giants trade Bryce Eldridge for him? Buxton would provide instant impact, the Giants have Devers to handle 1B. But, would you give up a 20 year old Eldridge for that instant impact from a guy over 30 who has had basically one season of decent health. 

If the answer to that is no? Maybe it's a yes... but if the you think the answer is that the Giants wouldn't do that. You have just acknowledged that age and injury risk is a factor because Byron Buxton had the 9th best OPS in baseball last season. If these things are not a factor... the Giants trade Eldridge because they are hoping Eldridge becomes the 9th best OPS in baseball.   

Once you decide it's a factor... the question becomes how much of a factor... while you are doing that calculation... The 45 million owed on the contract has to factored in.  

I can't explain the formula that BBTV uses. I'm not even here to defend it. I've read the components of it without specific information on the formula/weighting. So, I can't even say that BBTV is right or wrong because it doesn't matter. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 

The Phillies and Mets may both decide that Buxton is the perfect addition and nobody else can do what he can do and bid things up while the Giants are watching in disbelief. 

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I thought that was a high price as well. I hope the Twins manage to keep Buxton but there should be some really good offers. Teams are so reluctant to trade prospects and then finish the year short a player or two in the playoffs. Detroit and the New York teams will be calling.

San Diego did give up quite a haul though. Abrams was 60 with all of Hassell, Gore, and Wood at 55 via MLB. Susanna was a 50. By the end of 2022 Fangraphs had Wood at 60 and #9 as a top global prospect. It was an amazing trade. Preller likes to roll the dice. San Diego has been super competitive and fills the stadium too, drawing 3.43 miilion last year.

We might be surprised by what Buxton returns. I just don't have any feel for his value. I do know he has more value than both Wallner and Ober, who are valued higher via BBTV.

What do you think Buxton has in the way of value for another team?

My guess would be he can return a top 100 guy plus another highly thought of guy that isn't on the top 100. Probably a top 100 guy and somebody in the lower levels. Buxton is clearly talented, but other teams are aware of his injury history and aren't going to just completely ignore that.

[mnfireman]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

In other article on Twins Daily it was stated he reaches the 10-5 with the beginning of the 2027 season. I will admit I don't know the exact date. In any event I hope Buck stays. He may ask for a trade based on what happens with Ryan and/or Lopez. It is a tough time to be a Twins fan.

Buxton reaches 10/5 status in the first month of the 2026 season...

[mnfireman]

I may be in the minority here, but could the moderators/authors/contributors of TD please start a BBTV thread so the rest of us don't have to deal with this stupidity?? Thank you!!

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I may be in the minority here, but could the moderators/authors/contributors of TD please start a BBTV thread so the rest of us don't have to deal with this stupidity?? Thank you!!

For every statistic created there are an absurdly high number of people who will use it not as intended. There are also people who will never understand context and statistics. 

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I may be in the minority here, but could the moderators/authors/contributors of TD please start a BBTV thread so the rest of us don't have to deal with this stupidity?? Thank you!!

What does this request have to do with Buxton waiving his NTC?

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What does this request have to do with Buxton waiving his NTC?

My personal opinion is all. When I look at a thread and see BBTV in someone's post, I skip it, no matter how much good information may be contained in the post. My opinion is that there should be a thread dedicated to potential trades for posters wanting to throw out BBTV values when proposing trades.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

My personal opinion is all. When I look at a thread and see BBTV in someone's post, I skip it, no matter how much good information may be contained in the post. My opinion is that there should be a thread dedicated to potential trades for posters wanting to throw out BBTV values when proposing trades.

Ok, I see now. I'm not a fan of BBTV really myself but I can see where people use it. It is something concocted to show relative value. As such it isn't any different than numbers used for prospects, such as a 55 value guy or for that matter the other analytic numbers that are now common in either fielding (outs above average) or batting (WAR). One can glide over these numbers pretty easily taking each with a grain of salt. Then again, too much salt isn't good for a person.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I may be in the minority here, but could the moderators/authors/contributors of TD please start a BBTV thread so the rest of us don't have to deal with this stupidity?? Thank you!!

Wow

I understand it's limitations. But this is a bit extreme.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

My personal opinion is all. When I look at a thread and see BBTV in someone's post, I skip it, no matter how much good information may be contained in the post. My opinion is that there should be a thread dedicated to potential trades for posters wanting to throw out BBTV values when proposing trades.

BBTV basic use is a guide and by no way should be taken as gospel.  When trades occur I model them in BBTV to see what the likelihood of an acceptance would be.  A few examples:

1. Grayson Rodriguez/Taylor Ward would be rejected by BBTV.

2. Sonny Gray trade would be rejected by BBTV, even after adding $20M cash

3.  The Garcia/Oviedo trade would be accepted by BBTV.

What really bothers me about BBTV is the people that propose trades of 8 minor leaguers, all in the 2-4 BBTV range for 1 MLB guy.  No MLB executive would ever accept a trade like that.  In all reality, we don't have any other way of evaluating a trade.  Most of us know and understand it's limitations. It's really just a tool. 

In Buxton's case, his BBTV doesn't reflect his actual value.  If you remember back to the player votes for the All-Star game.  Buxton had the 4th most votes in MLB behind Judge, Raleigh, and Jose Ramirez.  He had more player votes than Skubal, Ohtani, Schwarber, PCA, etc...I am not saying he is better than those guys, but it shows you how he is viewed in MLB.  A perennial all-star, top 15-20 player in all of MLB when healthy.   Those types of guys are valued very highly.