The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild

[bean5302]

As noted above, the Twins are not a small market team, and they haven't been run like a small market team since the opening of Target Field. For all the bellyaching from fans about the cheap Pohlads, the team hasn't run an opening day total payroll under $100MM in the last decade.
https://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

The Astros are a large market team who committed to a multi-year complete overhaul and rebuild, and it paid massive dividends, but they have enormous revenue capabilities to sustain long term success with minimal rebuilding now that they've righted the ship. They're not a good comp for Minnesota.

I think it remains to be seen how the true welfare franchises like Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay will strategize into the future as the larger market profitable teams like the Yankees and Dodgers get more and more agitated. 

If we look back at World Series rebuild teams and their successes (last rebuild):
2025 Toronto Blue Jays (2019)
2024 No Rebuild Teams
2023 Arizona Diamondbacks (2022), Texas Rangers (2021)
2022 Philadelphia Phillies (2018), Houston Astros (2016)
2021 Atlanta Braves (2019), Houston Astros (2016)

It's pretty clear a non-large market team almost certainly needs to have a rebuild if they want to aim for the World Series. How big the rebuild/retool needs to be is pretty much going to be determined based on the market size of the team. Probably something like:

Huge market (Dodgers, Yankees, etc) no rebuild needed
Large market (1-2 years)
Mid market (2-3 years)
Small market (3-5 years)

The competitive window once the build process starts is shorter for smaller market teams as well. Something like:
Large market (5+ years)
Mid market (3-4 years)
Small market (2-3 years)

 

[weitz41]

The draft isn't what it was then, so those teams don't necessarily fit anymore. The Astro's hit on enough picks to get there. you could also add the Cubs to the Astro's tank to win later. The Orioles didn't take the plunge on spending. Their pitching they drafted either didn't work out or got injured. Add say DeGrom and Verlander to their 101-win 2023 team.

Unfortunately, due to the way baseball and revenue works we are cursed to root for a team that will go through these cycles of bad for too long and good for not long enough. This "core" just wasn't good enough to get there and stay.

They can stay in the mediocre (75-85 wins) range for a few more years if the FO spends on free agents and a few guys have good to great years. 

OR, they can punt and try again. 

Should this FO get another shot at it? Not IMO but they are what we're stuck with...

[DocBauer]

The hardest thing to find in MLB is quality SP. As Twins fans, we know this all to well. With any positive assumption that a not old Ober's hip injury will be corrected with offseason rest and normal rehab, the Twins have 3 SP that I would classify as playoff SP. Between SWR, Bradley, Matthews, Abel. Morris, and a few other contenders, there's tremendous opportunity for depth.

Any sort of rebound and improvement of position players/lineup PLUS 4 of the Twins top 10 offerings in regard to Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Culpepper really close to debuting in 2026, I seriously have to question any sort of re-build.

YES, the pen is a mess. And a good pen is VERY important. But between QUALITY SP, and a QUALITY lineup, and a QUALITY bullpen, which is the "easiest" to build?

And this ALL comes down to ownership and payroll. I think we understand that. But IF the Pohlads don't go crazy, there's an OPPORTUNITY to add a decent 1B, backup catcher, and the addition of perhaps 3 FA veteran arms that aren't great, but solid. Add those to what little is on hand, add a couple conversion candidates, and a handful of MILB pen options that are a welcome surprise in the system that might be about ready, and maybe a MILB steal like Thielbar and Stewart and others were in the past, it's not that crazy to think the Twins might put together a "competent" pen for 2026.

I understand the merits of a full blown re-build. But I've seen too many attempts at doing so crater as well. And I don't believe in "giving in" unless that seems to be the only path presented.

I see avenues with the Twins that are good enough, strong enough, that "giving in" just doesn't make sense. 

Do we have some SP that have great potential? Yes. Some are at the ML and AAA level, and some are further down. Do we have offensive potential at the ML and AAA level? Yes. Some need to rebound and some need to prove themselves.

But in NO WAY do I see enough questions to tear the whole thing down and start from scratch. Maybe I'm greedy as a fan, but I don't want to "give up" this soon.

I don't care...somewhat...if the 2026 Twins can't beat SOMEONE in the WS. I want a team that can be fun to watch and root for. I want a team built to win 85 games and compete for a division and a playoff spot and see what happens from there. And I want a team that might lose a player or two to FA in a couple of years, but we've got a solid system in place to help replace at least some of those players. FA and trades still apply.

I DON'T want a re-build. I don't think this team needs a complete re-build. But only the Pohlads stand in the way of that.

[rv78]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

IMO  the near future looks quite bleak.  I hope it all works out but I doubt it.. I think the Twins under Falvey have done a poor job of developing their cant miss prospects.  Almost all of them have missed.  People just assuming.prospects like Jenkins, Gonzales are going to step in and be immediate superstars are just like management.. wishful thinking and over hype.

There is always the chance that they don't turn into the type of players we want, hope for, been told they will become. That's the way it is with prospects. What we don't need are older washed up veterans blocking, first their chance to play, and second their playing time once they get here. Take Larnach for example. He's been in the majors for 5 years and it took until his 5th season before he got over 500 plate appearances in a season. In the 2021-2024 seasons he was platooned to the point of never getting consistant at bats due to the analytics of Falvey and Rocco. Does anyone really know if he has reached his peak as a MLB player? With his limited playing time it's very likely.... THEY STILL DON'T KNOW. When it takes 5 seasons plus, to find out what you have in a young player it puts you on the slow road to a championship that will likely never happen. Filling the roster with 1 year floor type veterans to keep your team at the status quo, (which is all they have done) hinders your development of your younger players. It gets you where they are today..... Hoping players like Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Martin can become difference makers instead of already knowing by now if they are or are capable of being so. Sorry, it shouldn't take 5 seasons to find out what a player can do for you. 

Hrbek came up in 1981 and in 1982 he had almost 600 Plate Appearances at the age of 22. Gaetti was exactly the same. Brunansky started for the Angels in 1981 with 41 PA's and came over to the Twins and had 545 PA's for the Twins at age 21. Puckett in his rookie season got 583 PA's. If you want your young players to develop and find out what you have, you gotta let 'em play. 

[lukeduke1980]

Hope that this team can be competitive in the Central?  Sure I can see that by 27, 28.  Compete for a Pennant?  That's so far away even if things go right.

[jorgenswest]

What is the definition for a rebuild?

Is part of it trading off multiyear assets during the winter? Is it noticeable in a drastic change in the payroll? Is it evident by no free agent signings in the winter? Would that rebuild team have the near youngest average batter and pitcher? Would it start the season with near the highest ratio of pre-arb players?

All teams out of it at the deadline are going to trade off expiring and even near expiring assets like Berrios. They are going to trade off big contracts if they can find a taker. I wouldn’t see that as an indicator of a rebuild.

 

[Lasorda_This_Out]

After watching all the Trade Deadline ex-Twins enjoying success and fun in the Post-Season, you have to wonder if Lopez, Ryan and Buxton are thinking: Get Me Off This Roster?

[Sjoski]

In MLB there are only two real divisions:

1. Rich vs. Poor (Small Market)
2. Smart vs. Not-So-Smart

That creates only four possible outcomes — and here’s how they play out:

Smart + Rich = Dodgers
They build well, spend wisely, and reload every year.

Rich + Not Smart = Mets
They throw money at problems but never seem to solve them.

Smart + Not Rich = Astros
They outthink teams that outspend them.

Not Smart + Not Rich = Twins
Forever rebuilding, forever surprised when it doesn’t work.

 

 

 

[NYCTK]

On 10/27/2025 at 8:21 AM, Riverbrian said:

If they sign a bunch of IKF types to fill space.

IKF is playing in the World Series. Why are you ****ing on him? 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

IKF is playing in the World Series. Why are you ****ing on him? 

By all means sign him. Lee can take a backseat.   

Let's see if we can get France back as well who is also playing in the World Series. I'll book my hotel now so I have space reserved for the 2026 parade in celebration of the 2026 Twins World Series win. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NYCTK]

33 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

By all means sign him. Lee can take a backseat.   

Let's see if we can get France back as well who is also playing in the World Series. I'll book my hotel now so I have space reserved for the 2026 parade in celebration of the 2026 Twins World Series win. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's almost as if veteran role players help fill out good teams and instinctively hating on journeyman veterans is stupid. If only the Twins had signed a veteran, like Bader, that everyone instantly **** on, like Bader, that proved everyone was foolish for hating on the idea of signing a veteran role player. Someone like, I don't know, maybe Harrison Bader? 

Oh well, I'm sure fans here have learned their lesson. 

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, Sjoski said:

In MLB there are only two real divisions:

1. Rich vs. Poor (Small Market)
2. Smart vs. Not-So-Smart

In my ideal world we'd actually see MLB split into two leagues with promotion and relegation. 100% revenue sharing would be easier to enact if you convinced the Cohen's of the world that they don't have to share with teams that are actively in a rebuild or perpetually just trying to milk their investment, like the Pirates or Athletics. 

 

[jorgenswest]

I join the group that want the Twins to stop signing the one year stop gap free agents.

Even the group that would advocate for signing those inexpensive veterans, signing Kiner-Falefa to play him at SS would not be a parallel the signings of Bader and Santana. In every season in which Kiner-Falefa has over 100 innings at SS he has a negative OAA. According to OAA Lee was a better shortstop last year and by wRC+ Lee was the better hitter.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I join the group that want the Twins to stop signing the one year stop gap free agents.

Even the group that would advocate for signing those inexpensive veterans, signing Kiner-Falefa to play him at SS would not be a parallel the signings of Bader and Santana. In every season in which Kiner-Falefa has over 100 innings at SS he has a negative OAA. According to OAA Lee was a better shortstop last year and by wRC+ Lee was the better hitter.

OK, but that's one player out of dozens of possible free agents. Are you claiming there isn't a single veteran free agent that would benefit the Twins in any year, ever? 

And IKF, or any other veteran middle infielder, would ideally be signed as a role player not as the every day starter. Depending on Brooks Lee to play 162 games at SS probably isn't the best idea, no? I didn't seem to hear anyone complaining that Bader was on the roster when presumptive DH Miranda sucked or Lewis was on the IL. 

You can then say you're fine with him starting every single game until Culpepper is ready, but what if that isn't until mid-2027? Development isn't linear and Culpepper has been quite good in AA, but not so great that he's forcing himself onto the major league roster. 

You might also say you're fine with Ryan Fitzgerald (or other AAAA) as the backup SS. But why are so many fans opposed to a 1 year deal for a veteran to improve the team, if only slightly? I keep hearing that these veterans are stealing opportunities and hampering the development of the internal Twins talent, but to that I ask who? Who was hurt with the presence of Harrison Bader? Or even Manuel Margot? Austin Martin? He was arguably worse than Margot in 2024, and he was hurt in 2025. Keirsey? LOL. 

So, who would be hurt by signing the hypothetical IKF? Kody Clemens? Eduoard Julien? 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

OK, but that's one player out of dozens of possible free agents. Are you claiming there isn't a single veteran free agent that would benefit the Twins in any year, ever? 

My answer would have been different following 2019/2020 and even 2023 had they not been right sizing the payroll..

My answer might be different this year if I believed they would be willing to cut loose veterans in May if they are not playing well. That hasn’t been my experience. I would have advocated for Martin over signing Bader last year following the season where Farmer and Margot were rostered all year.

If they are going to have a payroll among the bottom 10 they must develop prearb players. Otherwise they will continue in this cycle of mediocrity or worse.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would have advocated for Martin over signing Bader last year following the season where Farmer and Margot were rostered all year.

OK. And that was very obviously wrong. And you can go back to the day of the signing to read plenty of people saying that sort of thought was wrong. 

And, no surprise, it's still wrong. 

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, NYCTK said:

It's almost as if veteran role players help fill out good teams and instinctively hating on journeyman veterans is stupid. If only the Twins had signed a veteran, like Bader, that everyone instantly **** on, like Bader, that proved everyone was foolish for hating on the idea of signing a veteran role player. Someone like, I don't know, maybe Harrison Bader? 

Oh well, I'm sure fans here have learned their lesson. 

I don't see a Bader here. Who is going to play CF in 2026? Have you ever worked with a budget... What happens when you run out of money? 

Don't use words like "Stupid". Especially when you are too stupid to understand what stupid means. 

BTW... Don't answer the questions I asked. I'm not interested in anything you have to say. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, NYCTK said:

OK. And that was very obviously wrong. And you can go back to the day of the signing to read plenty of people saying that sort of thought was wrong. 

And, no surprise, it's still wrong. 

That's all you got?

That's all you have. You are nowhere near Jorgenswest level. He's trying to be polite with you. And this is all you have... this... attempted Harrison Bader victory lap. 

Once again... you don't understand the point. BTW... It's not Harrison Bader... It's Henry Mendez. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

That's all you got?

That's all you have. You are nowhere near Jorgenswest level. He's trying to be polite with you. And this is all you have... this... attempted Harrison Bader victory lap. 

Once again... you don't understand the point. BTW... It's not Harrison Bader... It's Henry Mendez. 

Bader is just the example proving why this reflexive hatred of veteran role players is obviously stupid. 

It was wrong last offseason. It's wrong this offseason. And it'll be wrong next offseason. 

This obviously doesn't mean any veteran signing would be good, IKF specifically might very well be a bad idea. It just means it's incredibly stupid to hate the idea of filling out a roster with outside help. 

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Bader is just the example proving why this reflexive hatred of veteran role players is obviously stupid. 

It was wrong last offseason. It's wrong this offseason. And it'll be wrong next offseason. 

This obviously doesn't mean any veteran signing would be good, IKF specifically might very well be a bad idea. It just means it's incredibly stupid to hate the idea of filling out a roster with outside help. 

Again... It's not Harrison Bader.

It's Henry Mendez and Geremy Villoria. The net result of your victory lap. We paid about 3 million for Mendez and Villoria. If either of them pay off in 2027. Take your victory lap. Until then shut up.  

I used to own a 2015 Dodge Dart. Had the car for about 6 years. It was a good car but every winter there were moments that I was stopped at a stop light with about 4 cars behind me. The light would turn green and I would spin my wheels going nowhere while the cars behind me honked.

Eventually I realized that I needed a different vehicle with all wheel drive in order to stop spinning my wheels going nowhere. 

Maybe... Just Maybe... It's not an issue with Bader himself. Maybe it's Winter.

I've tried to tell you that but you are too "incredibly stupid" to get it.  

   

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

It's Henry Mendez and Geremy Villoria.

Oh shoot. I forgot that Harrison Bader didn't play at all for the Twins. He didn't get a single hit that fans cheered for. He didn't make a single catch that got kids excited. 

Maybe the point of players is actually to watch them, enjoy their play, and actually improve the team. Maybe we shouldn't boil down Bader exclusively to what the Twins received upon his exit. 

If you want to completely punt on the season, fine by me. Like, you don't even want the Twins to even try to win 60 games? That's weird as a Twins fan.

See, I'm actually a Twins fan and I'm happy to see the Twins make efforts to improve their team. But I guess that what makes us different. 

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Until then shut up. 

No. 

 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Oh shoot. I forgot that Harrison Bader didn't play at all for the Twins. He didn't get a single hit that fans cheered for. He didn't make a single catch that got kids excited. 

Maybe the point of players is actually to watch them, enjoy their play, and actually improve the team. Maybe we shouldn't boil down Bader exclusively to what the Twins received upon his exit. 

If you want to completely punt on the season, fine by me. Like, you don't even want the Twins to even try to win 60 games? That's weird as a Twins fan.

See, I'm actually a Twins fan and I'm happy to see the Twins make efforts to improve their team. But I guess that what makes us different. 

 

 

I repeat... That's all you have to offer? That's it? That's all you got? 

Bader improved from a .622 and .657 to .796 and you pump your chest thinking you are offering something substantial with your powers of player assessment on one player.   

That's all you have to offer? Posters like Jorgenswest and others are way beyond this elementary crap you spew. Yet, you spew it so belligerently.  

 

[SteveLV]

Guys, why is this devolving into a personal attack/counter-attack?

Moderator(s)???

You disagree.  That is expected.  Be civil. 

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I repeat... That's all you have to offer? That's it? That's all you got? 

Bader improved from a .622 and .657 to .796 and you pump your chest thinking you are offering something substantial with your powers of player assessment on one player.   

That's all you have to offer? Posters like Jorgenswest and others are way beyond this elementary crap you spew. Yet, you spew it so belligerently.  

 

Anyone who thinks washed up veterans like Ty France deserve to be on a major league roster is a fool. Now let's turn to the World Series box scores to see the list of people with RBI. 

OH WOW! 

It appears veteran has-beens, and small role players can still be valuable contributors on very good teams. 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Anyone who thinks washed up veterans like Ty France deserve to be on a major league roster is a fool. Now let's turn to the World Series box scores to see the list of people with RBI. 

OH WOW! 

It appears veteran has-beens, and small role players can still be valuable contributors on very good teams. 

Again... Elementary Garbage.

I'd have that discussion with people who don't realize that baseball players placed in a lineup can contribute. 

Is this all you got? You need to step up your game.  

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Again... Elementary Garbage.

I'd have that discussion with people who don't realize that baseball players placed in a lineup can contribute. 

Is this all you got? You need to step up your game.  

I don't know why you're having an entirely different conversation. That's the entire conversation buddy. 

Someone said it'd be wrong for the Twins to hire any veteran, any at all. 

That sort of thought is obviously wrong. And now you've worked yourself into a tizzy over nothing. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I don't know why you're having an entirely different conversation. That's the entire conversation buddy. 

Someone said it'd be wrong for the Twins to hire any veteran, any at all. 

That sort of thought is obviously wrong. And now you've worked yourself into a tizzy over nothing. 

That's what your elementary brain interpreted falsely and you belligerently responded to what your elementary brain could absorb falsely. Now you are grasping at elementary points.   

I'm in no Tizzy... I'm just acting like you. 

 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That's what your elementary brain interpreted falsely and you belligerently responded to what your elementary brain could absorb falsely. Now you are grasping at elementary points.   

I'm in no Tizzy... I'm just acting like you. 

 

You an scroll back and see. It's on this same page, it ain't far. 

Someone shat on the idea of signing IKF. I criticized that someone because reflexively hating the idea of signing a veteran is a stupid thing to do. 

That's the entire conversation. 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

You an scroll back and see. It's on this same page, it ain't far. 

Someone shat on the idea of signing IKF. I criticized that someone because reflexively hating the idea of signing a veteran is a stupid thing to do. 

That's the entire conversation. 

That person was me. And I fully understand what I was saying. You don't understand and your lack of understanding is obvious with every elementary point you make as you consistently prickishly respond with elementary garbage rooted in your lack of understanding.    

Step up your game. If you can't step up your game... I'd learn to post without the insulting adjectives but you don't want to do that.  

You are just an internet bully with nothing to back it up. There are tons of you out there and they all vote on November 4th.

God help us.  

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That person was me. And I fully understand what I was saying. You don't understand and your lack of understanding is obvious with every elementary point you make as you consistently prickishly respond with elementary garbage rooted in your lack of understanding.    

Step up your game. If you can't step up your game... I'd learn to post without the insulting adjectives but you don't want to do that.  

You are just an internet bully with nothing to back it up. There are tons of you out there and they all vote on November 4th.

God help us.  

I'm sorry you're having a bad day. Hope it improves.