Searching For C4: Will The Real Carlos Correa Please Stand Up

[Alex Boxwell]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Carlos Correa has had a fantastic career, grabbing many team and individual awards that all ballplayers would want on their resume. The former number overall pick has been a model of consistency at the plate and has played sterling defense at shortstop throughout his 11 seasons in The Show.

However, this year a lot of the discontent with the Twins offense has been directed his way and the criticism is fair. Correa currently sits at a slash line of .264/.304/.389 with seven homers and an OPS+ of 90 in 322 plate appearances. All this while his fielding metrics are headed in the wrong direction. Not a good look for your superstar that’s banking $35 million on a sub-.500 ballclub.

Let's dive a little deeper into what I’m seeing as a former player (albeit at the Division 1 and independent level) and current coach. 

Correa doesn’t come up short on much in terms of the eye test. He’s physical, the glove skill is as good as anyone I have ever seen, the arm is excellent, the bat speed is great. Overall, not many shortstops have the ability to win a Gold Glove, hit a 475-foot homer, and possess the bat-to-ball skill to hit doubles to both foul lines.

One negative I see is that his actions at the plate lack fluidity, which I think can lead to poor swing decisions. As a 6-foot-4 shortstop I worry about his lack of flexibility; he has legit 30+ homer pop, but a steep swing path limits his ceiling for homers.

The decline of Correa’s swing decisions is evident with your most base stats. His OBP (.304) is the lowest of his career. When players go up to the plate and try and will themselves into hits they start to get the uncomfortable-looking setup at the plate—stiff movements, and you can almost see a player thinking about what to do while they're in the batter's box. Carlos is widely known as a very cerebral player, and we are seeing that play out to a fault right now.

The higher the level you play, the thinner the gap is between bad and really good. Taking expectations, analytics, mechanical changes and all that “between the ears” stuff the plate with you is very poisonous to a hitter. It takes a player out of the flow state where you can slow the game down and makes 93 MPH up and in look like a rocket ship.

Even if you look into his Baseball Savant page and tab through the years there are massive swings in his peripherals as a hitter. The notion he is the model of consistency is a little flawed. If you include this season, he’s had four offensive seasons that have been clunkers. It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride to his career .817 OPS and that’s just on the back of his baseball card.

Tension kills quickness and it also greatly hampers a player's ability to make good swing decisions, especially when they’re seeing 95 MPH+ every night. Every tiny fraction of confidence can move the needle just enough to lay off a slider and get a better pitch to hit. 

Correa is a pro’s pro. He knows he’s better than what’s on the jumbotron and I haven’t seen anything that makes me panic besides some poorer swing decisions happening more often than normal. Second-half Correa is the key for this lineup, as currently constructed. As a fan base it’s fair to be critical of his production but this is not out of the ordinary. He’s had some serious dips in production for extended periods of time over his career and there is a real possibility he has a bad season. However, with the all the reasons to worry, I am very confident we will see the real Carlos Correa for this crucial stretch of games. In a 162-game season sometimes the journey to a .275 batting average with 20 homers is a slump in the first half and tearing it up in the second.

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[Craig Arko]

Hope so.

[D.C Twins]

He is what he is... diminished and managing chronic injuries....

Buckle up for the last 1-2 years of this contract....

[Dman]

I have been pretty hard on him recently, but his swing decision with two strikes had been horrible.  They are pitching him outside where they know he will chase and he had been chasing plenty.  Recently he seems to have tightened that up some taking some close outside pitches.  Still a hitter with this level of experience shouldn't be having those issue's IMO.

He has really only had one good month so far this year and that was May where he managed an .870 OPS which is really, really good and wouldn't you know that streak coincided with the teams 13 game winning streak, which shows just how important his bat can be. Still it's the overall results that really matter because that is the consistency you expect from a veteran player and he just doesn't give it and you can see what that does to this team when he is off.

I do think he seems to be a bit more dialed in right now and his "hot" months with the bat are coming up as well.  It is just that we need better than .600 OPS production out of him the first half of the year. He just kills the lineup when he is this bad.

[Patzky]

35 minutes ago, Dman said:

I have been pretty hard on him recently, but his swing decision with two strikes had been horrible.  They are pitching him outside where they know he will chase and he had been chasing plenty.  Recently he seems to have tightened that up some taking some close outside pitches.  Still a hitter with this level of experience shouldn't be having those issue's IMO.

He has really only had one good month so far this year and that was May where he managed an .870 OPS which is really, really good and wouldn't you know that streak coincided with the teams 13 game winning streak, which shows just how important his bat can be. Still it's the overall results that really matter because that is the consistency you expect from a veteran player and he just doesn't give it and you can see what that does to this team when he is off.

I do think he seems to be a bit more dialed in right now and his "hot" months with the bat are coming up as well.  It is just that we need better than .600 OPS production out of him the first half of the year. He just kills the lineup when he is this bad.

The contract is always going to be part of the equation but isn't it tragic that Correa kills the lineup at the same time that Wallner, Lee, and Lewis do the same. 

[thelanges5]

If he is cooked, the Twins are cooked on this contract. Too many “ifs” on this roster to be very optimistic about the second half.

[Doctor Gast]

It has been said that he's had wrist problems, which explains his poor swing (some days worse than others, depending maybe the pain). I remember that Nellie Cruz also had wrist problems; he kept at it until something went pop & he was fine (I don't understand it). Maybe this is what they are expecting from Correa? If it is. I hope it works.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Other teams were right to be concerned about his right ankle. It has become both feet and ankles now, that are affecting his play, and daily prep from what I’ve heard.

He is a tough SOB and might have one more good season in him at some point. 

[TwinsChupacabra]

He's a cheater and an over-rated player.  His big contract, his lower than expected average, etc, his constantly hitting into double plays... A lot to dislike.   

[Whitey333]

Like many players on this team he is vastly underperforming.   All you hear announcers say is if this player and that player and this pitcher and that pitcher come back and perform the Twins will be great.  Too many ifs on this team and their has been for quite some time.  Something is wrong.  I even heard an announcer say it's still early in the season.  My god we are down to just overb60 games left.  That is not early it's late.

[LambchoP]

EVERYTHING he hits is on the ground. Even when he picks up a hit, it's on a grounder most times. Way too many rollers to the SS for double play. He's becoming more of a liability than a threat for our lineup. There is no way he should still be batting 4rth.

[h2oface]

????

Wake up. This IS the real Correa. He is standing up....... at least until he sits down for the rest of the year, again.