Searching For C4: Will The Real Carlos Correa Please Stand Up

Carlos Correa has had a fantastic career, grabbing many team and individual awards that all ballplayers would want on their resume. The former number overall pick has been a model of consistency at the plate and has played sterling defense at shortstop throughout his 11 seasons in The Show.

However, this year a lot of the discontent with the Twins offense has been directed his way and the criticism is fair. Correa currently sits at a slash line of .264/.304/.389 with seven homers and an OPS+ of 90 in 322 plate appearances. All this while his fielding metrics are headed in the wrong direction. Not a good look for your superstar that’s banking $35 million on a sub-.500 ballclub.

Let's dive a little deeper into what I’m seeing as a former player (albeit at the Division 1 and independent level) and current coach. 

Correa doesn’t come up short on much in terms of the eye test. He’s physical, the glove skill is as good as anyone I have ever seen, the arm is excellent, the bat speed is great. Overall, not many shortstops have the ability to win a Gold Glove, hit a 475-foot homer, and possess the bat-to-ball skill to hit doubles to both foul lines.

One negative I see is that his actions at the plate lack fluidity, which I think can lead to poor swing decisions. As a 6-foot-4 shortstop I worry about his lack of flexibility; he has legit 30+ homer pop, but a steep swing path limits his ceiling for homers.

The decline of Correa’s swing decisions is evident with your most base stats. His OBP (.304) is the lowest of his career. When players go up to the plate and try and will themselves into hits they start to get the uncomfortable-looking setup at the plate—stiff movements, and you can almost see a player thinking about what to do while they're in the batter's box. Carlos is widely known as a very cerebral player, and we are seeing that play out to a fault right now.

The higher the level you play, the thinner the gap is between bad and really good. Taking expectations, analytics, mechanical changes and all that “between the ears” stuff the plate with you is very poisonous to a hitter. It takes a player out of the flow state where you can slow the game down and makes 93 MPH up and in look like a rocket ship.

Even if you look into his Baseball Savant page and tab through the years there are massive swings in his peripherals as a hitter. The notion he is the model of consistency is a little flawed. If you include this season, he’s had four offensive seasons that have been clunkers. It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride to his career .817 OPS and that’s just on the back of his baseball card.

Tension kills quickness and it also greatly hampers a player's ability to make good swing decisions, especially when they’re seeing 95 MPH+ every night. Every tiny fraction of confidence can move the needle just enough to lay off a slider and get a better pitch to hit. 

Correa is a pro’s pro. He knows he’s better than what’s on the jumbotron and I haven’t seen anything that makes me panic besides some poorer swing decisions happening more often than normal. Second-half Correa is the key for this lineup, as currently constructed. As a fan base it’s fair to be critical of his production but this is not out of the ordinary. He’s had some serious dips in production for extended periods of time over his career and there is a real possibility he has a bad season. However, with the all the reasons to worry, I am very confident we will see the real Carlos Correa for this crucial stretch of games. In a 162-game season sometimes the journey to a .275 batting average with 20 homers is a slump in the first half and tearing it up in the second.