Week in Review: Bucking Into The Break

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Weekly Nutshell:
The final week of the first half served as a strong statement: The Minnesota Twins have put their horrific month of June firmly in the rearview, and are ready to get serious for the stretch run. After going a full month without winning a series, they've now won three straight, including two against likely playoff teams in the Rays and Cubs. 

The Twins did, however, narrowly miss a sweep over the Pirates that would have put them back squarely at the .500 mark heading into All-Star break. It's tough to complain about a 6-3 home stand, but this team has eroded so much margin for error that the missed opportunities like Sunday's 2-1 loss sting all the more. Minnesota is only a few games back in the wild-card race, but there are three teams standing between them and the final spot. They've got their work cut out for them. 

That said, the Twins are undoubtedly in a much better place than they were couple of weeks ago. Their pitching staff is fully back on track, with reinforcements on the way, and Minnesota's two All-Stars are shining brightly along with a lockdown bullpen. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/7 through Sun, 7/13
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 47-49)
Run Differential Last Week: +10 (Overall: -8)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (11.5 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 91 | MIN 8, CHC 1: Twins Ride Lights-Out Pitching, Late Power Outburst to Victory

• Jeffers, Castro, Bader: HRs in 8th inning

Game 92 | MIN 4, CHC 2: Early Lead Holds Up Behind Strong Work from Festa, Bullpen

• Twins bullpen: 3.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K

Game 93 | CHC 8, MIN 1: Cubs Rebound with Dominant Effort to Evade Sweep in Finale

• Paddack: 5 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 2 K

Game 94 | MIN 2, PIT 1: Ryan Outduels Skenes, Bullpen Fires Four Scoreless to Seal Win

• Ryan: 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Game 95 | MIN 12, PIT 4: Buxton Hits for Cycle, Twins Blast Four Homers in Blowout Victory

• Buxton: 5-5, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI

Game 96 | PIT 2, MIN 1: Keller Shut Downs Lineup as Twins Again Fail to Complete Sweep

• Twins hitters: 1-8 RISP

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NEWS & NOTES

The Twins had a couple of scary close calls on the injury front but were fortunately able to avoid anything serious in both cases. On Wednesday, Byron Buxton got hit on the hand by a 98-MPH fastball from Cade Horton and had to exit the game. X-rays came back negative and he was able to return for a big weekend against the Pirates. On Friday, Carlos Correa rolled his ankle and went down in a heap during a tag attempt at second base. He needed to be helped off the field and didn't play Saturday, but Correa was back in the lineup for Sunday's series finale and looked no worse for the wear. Whew.

Another relief: Our long Joey Wentz nightmare has reached an end. Wentz posted a 15.75 ERA and 3.25 WHIP in eight innings for the Twins spread across six appearances, repeatedly getting shelled in mop-up duty, before being designated for assignment on Wednesday. He was claimed off waivers two days later by the Braves, who are the latest team to take a gamble on Wentz's premium velo from the left side. The Twins replaced him with another marginal major-league lefty reliever in Anthony Misiewicz, who allowed three runs in 3 ⅓ innings across two low-leverage appearances.

An exciting piece of news heading into the break: Zebby Matthews appears ready to return. After throwing live batting practice at Target Field earlier in the week, Matthews went to St. Paul to kick off a rehab assignment on Sunday. He was absolutely dominant, throwing four shutout innings with just one hit allowed and nine strikeouts. Assuming everything checks out physically in the coming days, there's a fair likelihood Matthews will rejoin the Twins rotation on the other side of the break.

HIGHLIGHTS

In the span of one week, Buxton was named to the All-Star team, selected to the Home Run Derby, and hit for the cycle for the first time in Target Field history. He accomplished the feat on Saturday night — his own bobblehead giveaway game. Buxton tallied five hits and sealed the deal with a seventh-inning home run, his 21st of the season. The spectacular effort left Buxton with a .921 OPS, ranking third-best in the American League behind MVP front-runners Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. 

Saturday's impressive win over Pittsburgh saw Willi Castro chip in three hits, including his second homer of the week. He wraps the first half with an excellent .791 OPS. Kody Clemens also launched his second long ball of the week on Saturday — a three-run bomb that staked Minnesota a big early lead. He's working his way into regular duty at first base against right-handers, which is great news for him but less so for Ty France. 

Coming off a weekend of heroics against Tampa, Harrison Bader stayed hot with another home run on Tuesday. He notched four more hits and a stolen base over the course of the week. Those four names we just covered — Buxton, Bader, Castro, Clemens — were Minnesota's four most valuable position players in the first half, and the only ones worth more than one win above replacement, per FanGraphs. It's fitting they all ended on high notes, with Buxton's the highest of all.

On the pitching side, Joe Ryan has been far-and-away the top performer on the staff. He too put an appropriate final touch on his first half, going toe to toe with young phenom Paul Skenes on Friday night and picking up his ninth win with five innings of one-run ball. Earlier in the week, Ryan got some much deserved recognition when he was named to the All-Star team as an injury replacement, joining Buxton. 

Simeon Woods Richardson is going to set up a tough decision for the Twins front office as sidelined starters begin returning to the mix. In two starts last week, SWR allowed just one run over 9 ⅔ innings, lowering his ERA to 1.46 in his past six turns. He isn't missing many bats and has had to dance out of danger at times, but still it's hard to argue with the results. The good, efficient innings are piling up. Wood Richardson is doing everything the Twins are asking of him, and then some. 

Minnesota's back-end relievers also finished the first half in top form: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Danny Coulombe, Brock Stewart and Cole Sands combined to allow one run in 17 innings of work, and it didn't come until the final inning of the week when Durán gave up an infield RBI single that ultimately tagged him with the loss. These guys worked in a lot of close games and they were brilliant. 

Teams will surely come calling on some or all of these names as the trade deadline approaches, and there is arguably some wisdom in listening to those offers, even if not acting as a full-on "seller." At the same time, the Twins' depth of high-caliber late-inning arms is one of the biggest reasons to believe they could surge in the second half, and would make them a very imposing postseason opponent. Minnesota's bullpen leads the major leagues in fWAR at the All-Star break.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins offense is maddeningly inconsistent, which is at least a step up over consistently bad. The lineup had a few nice showings, including an eight-run outburst against Chicago on Tuesday night and the 12-run stomping of Pittsburgh on Saturday. But Minnesota also scored two or fewer runs in three of the six games, and they were very lucky to come away with a win in one of them.

The final game of the first half was a microcosm of this team's shortcomings: Buxton came through with an early game-tying RBI single, and the rest of the offense could do nothing all day. Mitch Keller combined with three relievers to hold Minnesota off the board outside of that swing, wasting another stellar effort from the pitching staff.

Trevor Larnach went 0-for-4 in that game to finish the week 1-for-17. (His one hit was a big one though: a two-run homer off Skenes that was the difference in Friday night's 2-1 victory.) France went 1-for-12 in five games (only three of them starts) and has a sub-.500 OPS in his past 25 games. 

Brooks Lee was 3-for-21 with one double, one RBI and no walks. He's batting .132 in July after an outstanding month of June. The swing decisions just aren't there and he's not a guy who can produce while hacking at slop. If Lee can't get the bat revved up in the second half, it's possible Luke Keaschall could return and start eating into playing time at second base, although clearly Rocco Baldelli has a great deal of confidence in Lee. Maybe too much?

Slumps like the ones we've seen from Larnach, France and Lee are tougher to swallow due to the presence of Christian Vázquez, who is bound to start almost every other day while contributing nothing at the plate. He managed two singles in his 10-bats last week, and hasn't had a multi-hit game since the middle of May. (He's batting .140 with two extra-base hits in 93 plate appearances since then.) On the season, his .493 OPS is fourth-worst out of 302 major-league hitters with 150-plus PAs. 

There's no reason to believe Vázquez will turn around his struggles at this stage, and no reason to expect he'll stop seeing substantial playing time in the second half. This adds urgency for the rest of the lineup to pick up the slack. Minnesota's ability to emerge as a true contender in the stretch run will be contingent on guys like Larnach, Lee, Correa, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner finding their swings and powering up the middle of the Twins lineup. 

It feels like none of those guys are clicking fully, but most have at least shown flashes, and any one of them has the ability to drastically alter the club's offensive outlook if they do. And if multiple players from that group and find the groove while Buxton continues to play at an MVP-caliber level, the Twins would really be in business.

Unfortunately, they don't have a ton of time to wait on these hitters to figure it out. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

In the coming days, eyes will be on Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan at the All-Star Game in Atlanta. If you're into that sort of thing. Following their four-day break in the schedule, the Twins will resume play in Colorado next weekend as they look to make their stand in the second half. 

The roster figures to undergo some change pretty rapidly once the action gets going again. While nothing's official, Matthews will likely be activated from the injured list following his very encouraging rehab outing. That would presumably bump Travis Adams back to Triple-A; he did a solid job taking the ball and throwing strikes in a couple of bulk pitching appearances. If Matthews looks anything like he did on the mound in St. Paul on Sunday, he's going to provide a big boost.

Then things get interesting. Bailey Ober took an anti-inflammatory medication for his ailing hip, and is reportedly feeling better. He has apparently thrown off a mound multiple times so it doesn't appear he went through much of a shutdown. I would guess that the Twins want him to go Triple-A and get in a rehab start or two, putting mechanical adjustments into practice. That is probably not too far off. 

If Ober's ready to return in a couple of weeks and Woods Richardson is still getting the job done, what's the move? Especially knowing that Pablo López should also be back on the scene in a month or so. One potential pivot is that the Twins could increase their openness to flipping Chris Paddack, offloading a few million from the payroll in the process. Paddack hasn't done much to catalyze his trade market lately though — he has an 8.48 ERA in his past six starts and hasn't recorded an out past the fifth inning in any of them.

The bottom line is that the Twins can afford to be somewhat patient and measured in handling the pitching staff reinforcements. I'm not sure the same can be said on the offensive side. These sleepy one-run performances just can't happen anymore or the team's contention hopes will fade. 

Keaschall's progress toward a rehab assignment will be monitored closely. I'm also curious if the Twins might bring Austin Martin back into the fold pretty quickly here. He's looked great since returning to action in St. Paul, slashing .325/.429/.450 in a dozen games. Swapping him in for DaShawn Keirsey Jr. — who has not appeared in the first six innings of a game since June 22nd — seems like a pretty straightforward way to upgrade the talent on the roster. I get that it's nice to have a bench player who you don't mind collecting dust, but at some point the front office has gotta do something to try and jolt this offense. Martin might not do much to lift the ceiling but he can help lift the floor. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins open up the second half with a tour through the worst and best the National League have to offer. The Colorado Rockies are on pace for 125 losses, threatening to overshadow the ineptitude of the 2024 White Sox. Securing a series win or sweep will be critical, because straight afterward the Twins will head to Los Angeles for a road series against a star-studded Dodgers team that's tracking toward 100 wins. The Twins have not yet announced their pitching plans coming out of the break.

TUESDAY, JULY 15: MLB ALL-STAR GAME (ATLANTA)
FRIDAY, JULY 18: TWINS @ ROCKIES — TBD v. LHP Kyle Freeland
SATURDAY, JULY 19: TWINS @ ROCKIES — TBD v. LHP Antonio Senzatela
SUNDAY, JULY 20: TWINS @ ROCKIES — TBD v. RHP German Marquez

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[D.C Twins]

I'm not trying to be negative...buuuuuut...

I hope the 0.500 play does not dissuade the FO from being SELLERS.

 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I hope the 0.500 play does not dissuade the FO from being SELLERS.

That's not negative. Pessimistic maybe, but that's an understandable response to MN sports in general.

The fact is that they're still not a .500 team. They have zero chance to win the division and an awful lot of competition ahead of them for a WC spot. All things considered, selling is the reasonable choice.

It's sad, though, because with even a decent ownership group, a modest payroll push last year likely would have led to a playoff berth, and a willingness to add some salary through trades could maybe lead to one this year. But as Bonnes and Gleeman noted recently, penny wise and pound foolish is the Twins' organizational slogan.

[TheLeviathan]

11 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

That's not negative. Pessimistic maybe, but that's an understandable response to MN sports in general.

The fact is that they're still not a .500 team. They have zero chance to win the division and an awful lot of competition ahead of them for a WC spot. All things considered, selling is the reasonable choice.

It's sad, though, because with even a decent ownership group, a modest payroll push last year likely would have led to a playoff berth, and a willingness to add some salary through trades could maybe lead to one this year. But as Bonnes and Gleeman noted recently, penny wise and pound foolish is the Twins' organizational slogan.

I'm 100% with you.  It's nice to see some good baseball played recently, but that doesn't mean I'm confusing this team with a contender.

Going forward....this team has Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Zebby, Festa, SWR and in the wings guys like Raya, Prielepp, Morris, and Culpepper.  Even if they trade Jax or Duran they have proven to be able to keep making relievers work.

Keaschall, Jenkins, E-Rod, Lee, Buxton, Correa, Culpepper, Sabato, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach are the position players.  There are some dudes there....but they need help.  I don't know how else you get that other than by trading.  Selling now gives you lottery tickets to boost this group.

So go trade the 4-6 expiring contracts and get a bunch of young lottery tickets.  If even one becomes a player you turned nothing (other than two months of pretending) into something.

[Nick Nelson]

lol I really don't understand why y'all are so eager to give up on the season. Genuinely. Is selling off expiring contracts for middling prospects actually exciting or interesting to you? Is it worth the message it sends to all players and fans?

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, Nick Nelson said:

lol I really don't understand why y'all are so eager to give up on the season. Genuinely. 

Have you seen this team play?  

[Nick Nelson]

12 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

 

It's sad, though, because with even a decent ownership group, a modest payroll push last year likely would have led to a playoff berth, and a willingness to add some salary through trades could maybe lead to one this year. But as Bonnes and Gleeman noted recently, penny wise and pound foolish is the Twins' organizational slogan.

Not defending ownership but this idea that spending more money = more guaranteed success is just not accurate. In reality, the front office had a very successful offseason: Bader is their second-most valuable position player and Coulombe has been a key member of the bullpen. Those are better acquisitions than a number of teams made with greater resources, and better than the Twins have done in the past when spending considerably more. 

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Is it worth the message it sends to all players and fans?

How would it be in conflict with the message they've been sending the fans for the past 18 months? There's a reason their attendance is their worst since 2000. 

As for the players...I don't care if someone conveys to them they aren't good enough, because they've proven it. 

[D.C Twins]

26 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

lol I really don't understand why y'all are so eager to give up on the season. Genuinely. Is selling off expiring contracts for middling prospects actually exciting or interesting to you? Is it worth the message it sends to all players and fans?

I would not stop with expiring contracts; I would trade high on Duran and Jax

I definitely think we can get more than 'middling prospects' for:

Duran, Jax, and Castro 

I think we could possibly get something of value for

Paddack, Stewart, Coloumbe, Topa 

Bader and France would probably only be sweeteners. 

If a high payroll team has an injury at SS... dump Correa on them for sure if they will take him (even for just a middling prospect!).

Open up spots and let the kids play

[Nick Nelson]

35 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

How would it be in conflict with the message they've been sending the fans for the past 18 months? There's a reason their attendance is their worst since 2000. 

As for the players...I don't care if someone conveys to them they aren't good enough, because they've proven it. 

The goal should be to deviate from the messaging of the past 18 months and reinvigorate the fan base. Fans should be keeping that pressure on, not accepting and embracing apathy.

How have the players "proven" they're not good enough? They won 18 games in May. They are currently a few games out of a postseason spot. There's still almost half a season left. 

I understand the lack of faith given what we saw in June and in the second half of last year. But we've gotta stop glomming onto every negative development as "proof" of some preconceived notion. They've won three straight series! They're playing good ball against good teams!

[Nick Nelson]

23 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

I would not stop with expiring contracts; I would trade high on Duran and Jax

I definitely think we can get more than 'middling prospects' for:

Duran, Jax, and Castro 

I think we could possibly get something of value for

Paddack, Stewart, Coloumbe, Topa 

Bader and France would probably only be sweeteners. 

If a high payroll team has an injury at SS... dump Correa on them for sure if they will take him (even for just a middling prospect!).

Open up spots and let the kids play

The primary value of these moves would be saving money for ownership. FYI. What "kids" are currently being held back who deserve playing time?

[Nick Nelson]

58 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Have you seen this team play?  

I saw them win 13 games in a row

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Fans should be keeping that pressure on, not accepting and embracing apathy.

Exactly. No one wants status quo. Many people want to sell fairly aggressively. Not as agrresively as myself but more than just sending away Bader and Coulombe. 

 

23 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

How have the players "proven" they're not good enough?

This roster that's won precisely half of their games while playing in the worst division of baseball the last 18 months? This great window that is wasting the miraculous health and production of Buxton, still showing themselves to be nothing more than fine? Gee, I don't know. 

Fans shouldn't be satisfied with a front office that strives for 84 wins and a crossing of fingers that that's good enough to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

This roster, at its best, appears to be even less than that. Contrary to what many fans will claim, this team has been pretty healthy over the last few seasons relative to other teams. It's not bad luck that's shown their mediocrity. 

[NYCTK]

14 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I saw them win 13 games in a row

Sweet. And then what happened? 

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Not defending ownership but this idea that spending more money = more guaranteed success is just not accurate. In reality, the front office had a very successful offseason: Bader is their second-most valuable position player and Coulombe has been a key member of the bullpen. Those are better acquisitions than a number of teams made with greater resources, and better than the Twins have done in the past when spending considerably more. 

I'm confused. Was cutting (not adding, mind you) payroll after 2023 a defendable position, right after the first taste of playoff success in a generation? No, it wasn't. And it clearly had an impact on that following season.

It's fine to defend ownership, and no one here on TD expects the Twins to spend Mets money. But there's no question in my mind that some additional support in 2024 would have made a difference, and some additional payroll flexibility with regard to trades this year could also make a difference. But this organization has no killer instinct, and ownership would much rather bail out and take the money than hoist a trophy. 

I don't see how that's remotely debatable at this point.

[LastOnePicked]

37 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I saw them win 13 games in a row

Neat. I also saw then have the worst start in franchise history, coupled with a truly dreadful June.

This team is missing a few key ingredients. They don't have it on the farm, they won't trade for it and they won't pay for it in the offseason. They're a sub-.500 team, even with that lovely 13 game win streak.

It's probably time to look ahead to a better future. I'd much rather see them win now, but I've seen enough recent autumn collapses to sober me up.

[Nick Nelson]

33 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This roster that's won precisely half of their games while playing in the worst division of baseball the last 18 months? This great window that is wasting the miraculous health and production of Buxton, still showing themselves to be nothing more than fine? Gee, I don't know. 

Fans shouldn't be satisfied with a front office that strives for 84 wins and a crossing of fingers that that's good enough to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

This roster, at its best, appears to be even less than that. Contrary to what many fans will claim, this team has been pretty healthy over the last few seasons relative to other teams. It's not bad luck that's shown their mediocrity. 

If you admit they're in a "great window" then why are you pushing to tear it apart? 

Your second paragraph is nothing but cynical negativity. The front office is obviously striving for more than 84 wins and losing in the playoffs. They did it in 2023. They were on track at this time last year. And with 65 games left on the schedule, there's plenty of opportunity to exceed it this year. 

As stated in the article, all they need is a couple of Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach etc to turn the corner and things look very different for this team. If you don't have faith in any of those guys, that's okay, but understand that trading them away at low points is not some savvy strategy.

Correa is immovable at this point. With that being the case, "rebuilding" isn't a practical option. So why not try and manufacture a little optimism for a roster that is very much within range of playoff position with two All-Stars and more help coming from the IL?

[Nick Nelson]

35 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm confused. Was cutting (not adding, mind you) payroll after 2023 a defendable position, right after the first taste of playoff success in a generation? No, it wasn't. And it clearly had an impact on that following season.

It's fine to defend ownership, and no one here on TD expects the Twins to spend Mets money. But there's no question in my mind that some additional support in 2024 would have made a difference, and some additional payroll flexibility with regard to trades this year could also make a difference. But this organization has no killer instinct, and ownership would much rather bail out and take the money than hoist a trophy. 

I don't see how that's remotely debatable at this point.

I wasn't trying to debate that. The cut-back in 2023 was disgraceful and definitely had an effect on last year's team. (Especially doing nothing at the deadline.)

I'm only saying that I don't see spending as any major factor in the discussion of this year's team. They maximized the funds they had available. They should be able to win the division with a $147 million payroll. Their highest-paid player is their biggest problem.

Also: the Pohlads could have just not made available the money to sign Bader and Coulombe, who've been two of the best players. They deserve some small level of credit or at least acknowledgement on that front. 

[NYCTK]

46 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The front office is obviously striving for more than 84 wins and losing in the playoffs.

I don't see how that's obvious at all. I give them credit for making an effort after 2019 to try to go for it. But 4 years later they decided to do the opposite. They had one foot out the door and clearly had no interest in building on the moderate success of 2023. 

 

46 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

They were on track at this time last year.

And they proceeded to do nothing at the trade deadline. 

46 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Correa is immovable at this point. With that being the case, "rebuilding" isn't a practical option.

Tigers didn't have that attitude re: Baez, and they have the best record in the AL to show for it. 

 

46 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

So why not try and manufacture a little optimism for a roster that is very much within range of playoff position

I'm not in the business of lying to myself. Especially when that makes the organization worse. 

[mickster]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I would not stop with expiring contracts; I would trade high on Duran and Jax

I definitely think we can get more than 'middling prospects' for:

Duran, Jax, and Castro 

I think we could possibly get something of value for

Paddack, Stewart, Coloumbe, Topa 

Bader and France would probably only be sweeteners. 

If a high payroll team has an injury at SS... dump Correa on them for sure if they will take him (even for just a middling prospect!).

Open up spots and let the kids play

I do not agree.   Bullpens are too valuable, and maybe more so then starters at times.  I don't like it, but that is how baseball is being played now.   Duran and Jax need to stay.   Castro is most likely going to get a bigger contract in the off-season then the Twins will offer, but trading him leaves a huge hole in the lineup with his versatility

No team is giving up anything for Paddack, as he would not be in the rotation in the postseason for anyone right now.   Coloumbe may command a decent prospect.   Stewart and Topa not as much.

Agree on France, but I would love to keep Bader and home he uses his mutual option to stay around next year.

Correa is way to valuable at this time.   He will be our future 3B, with Lee at 2nd and Keachall or Lewis at 2B

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The goal should be to deviate from the messaging of the past 18 months and reinvigorate the fan base. Fans should be keeping that pressure on, not accepting and embracing apathy.

How have the players "proven" they're not good enough? They won 18 games in May. They are currently a few games out of a postseason spot. There's still almost half a season left. 

I understand the lack of faith given what we saw in June and in the second half of last year. But we've gotta stop glomming onto every negative development as "proof" of some preconceived notion. They've won three straight series! They're playing good ball against good teams!

These feel like deliberately unfair arguments. You're over-emphasizing May and underemphasizing June.  Then end with overemphasizing recency bias.  Also inflating the value of a one game playoff game as a measuring stick.  Let's cut to the meat of the problem, though, shall we?

Is ownership going to flood the front office with money to buy at the deadline?  I mean, if that's the argument you're making and you want to tell us all you think the team is truly going to "deviate their messaging" - let's hear you make that case.  But, I should note, they didn't make that decision last year in a significantly better position. They didn't this offseason.  This ownership group has almost never done it in decades of existence.  (Some peanuts for Bader or Columbe better not be the comeback.  C'mon, let's be serious)

So what does a reasonable Twins fan truly have to choose between? They will not be buying in the next three weeks.  To refer to your first paragraph - the messaging isn't going to deviate.  This is still an ownership group half-assing their way through things.  So given that reality....yes...I would rather give up on what looks like an 80ish win season and add cheap talent.  Because we sure as hell know that the only kind of talent we have a chance of adding will have to be cheap.  Or we do nothing, fiddle around .500, lose players for nothing, and continue to spin our wheels.  Exciting....is that what I'm supposed to feel about the alternative?

I'll end with this: I conclude we need to sell not out of some grand idea about the bounty of prospects we'll get.  I conclude this not because it "excites" me to get someone's 12th best prospect.  I conclude this because ownership isn't going to give me, as a fan, any other way of hoping for more. Without more shots at cheap talent in the years ahead, we'll continue this misery of mediocrity.  It is resignation to the reality of the organization.  Frankly, I'm not sure how any avid fan can conclude anything else.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

lol I really don't understand why y'all are so eager to give up on the season. Genuinely. Is selling off expiring contracts for middling prospects actually exciting or interesting to you? Is it worth the message it sends to all players and fans?

I'm interested in actually competing and this sub-.500 team isn't going to go anywhere. I'd much rather build for next year than hope for this year. They have a 10% chance at making the playoffs right now (which means a 90% chance they won't).

Besides, I think they players they are likely to sell (Castro, Paddack, Coulombe, Stewart, Bader, France) are mostly replaceable from within. Paddack is their 7th best starting pitcher. Castro makes boneheaded mistakes regularly. Coulombe doesn't face more than 3 batters in an inning. Stewart can't hold runners on base. These are not critical pieces. Bader is the only guy they'll truly miss, so maybe they hold onto him and hope they can negotiate a new contract.

Their season success, this season and next, rests on Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Ryan, Lopez, Duran, Jax, etc. It's irrelevant if they keep Chris Paddack if Carlos Correa continues to suck at the plate.

[Nick Nelson]

54 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Is ownership going to flood the front office with money to buy at the deadline?  I mean, if that's the argument you're making and you want to tell us all you think the team is truly going to "deviate their messaging" - let's hear you make that case.  But, I should note, they didn't make that decision last year in a significantly better position. They didn't this offseason.  This ownership group has almost never done it in decades of existence.  (Some peanuts for Bader or Columbe better not be the comeback.  C'mon, let's be serious)

This entire post greatly exaggerates the impact of ownership on a baseball team's outcomes. Cleveland has the most miserly, cheap, opportunity-restrictive owner in the universe and they went to the ALCS last year. I'm sorry but it's just a scapegoating cop-out at this point.

And again, let's be very clear: the single biggest source of the Twins' problems right now is the very player that was by far the biggest and boldest and most ambitious splash this ownership group has made in its decades of existence.

I don't think the Twins will buy at the deadline. I don't think they will sell. I think they will do basically nothing and I think they can have a very successful season in spite of it. 

[Nick Nelson]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm interested in actually competing and this sub-.500 team isn't going to go anywhere. I'd much rather build for next year than hope for this year. They have a 10% chance at making the playoffs right now (which means a 90% chance they won't).

Besides, I think they players they are likely to sell (Castro, Paddack, Coulombe, Stewart, Bader, France) are mostly replaceable from within. Paddack is their 7th best starting pitcher. Castro makes boneheaded mistakes regularly. Coulombe doesn't face more than 3 batters in an inning. Stewart can't hold runners on base. These are not critical pieces. Bader is the only guy they'll truly miss, so maybe they hold onto him and hope they can negotiate a new contract.

Their season success, this season and next, rests on Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Ryan, Lopez, Duran, Jax, etc. It's irrelevant if they keep Chris Paddack if Carlos Correa continues to suck at the plate.

If they sweep the worst team in baseball history next weekend, they'll be above .500. Would that change your view? What if by the end of July they are tied for a wild-card spot? These are not outlandish scenarios. 

How many times do we have to watch a team have a big second half and race to the playoffs before we accept that it's pretty dang common? The Twins did it in 2023. The Tigers did it last year. They probably had plenty of fans who, on this date last year when they were 3 games below .500, were saying "screw it, blow it up." 

Castro and Coulombe and Stewart and Bader are "replaceable from within"? Come on. That is absurd. Have you seen the quality of players the Twins have had to turn to when their depth has run out?

[TheLeviathan]

27 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

This entire post greatly exaggerates the impact of ownership on a baseball team's outcomes. Cleveland has the most miserly, cheap, opportunity-restrictive owner in the universe and they went to the ALCS last year. I'm sorry but it's just a scapegoating cop-out at this point.

And again, let's be very clear: the single biggest source of the Twins' problems right now is the very player that was by far the biggest and boldest and most ambitious splash this ownership group has made in its decades of existence.

I don't think the Twins will buy at the deadline. I don't think they will sell. I think they will do basically nothing and I think they can have a very successful season in spite of it. 

You brought in "deviating the message" - there is truth that ownership impacts might be exaggerated in normal circumstances.  But in terms of the "message" the team and fans are getting - there is no overstatement here.  Ownership is THE issue when it comes to that.  It is the reason they won't buy at the deadline.  It's the reason fans are checked out.  I can't imagine it has no impact in the clubhouse.  My emphasis on the ownership is due to your emphasis on changing the message.  Until the team sells....that ain't happening.  Since you didn't make an actual argument againt that, I assume you agree.  But let's not pretend disagreement then and spin the argument.

Now, that out of the way.....Is this where I get to take your conclusion (which might be right - they may do nothing.  The worst of all possible outcomes IMO, but absolutely on brand) and ask how it "excites" you?  You know, frame your conclusion as if that's what you want your team's July plan to be every year?

I don't want to sell because it excites me.  I want to sell because having enough talent for what I actually want (a legit contender) is going to require adding more cheap talent.  A middling, go-nowhere season seems like a good time to try that.  Doing nothing literally does nothing to help that.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

If they sweep the worst team in baseball history next weekend, they'll be above .500. Would that change your view? What if by the end of July they are tied for a wild-card spot? These are not outlandish scenarios. 

No, neither one would change my mind that this team is not built for the playoffs. The bats are not good enough. They're trying to patch over both 1B and 2B with Kody Clemens.

53 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

How many times do we have to watch a team have a big second half and race to the playoffs before we accept that it's pretty dang common?

That's already figured into their 9.6% chance at a playoff spot and 0.1% chance to win the World Series. I'm not someone who bets with less than 10% odds of success.

55 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Tigers did it last year. They probably had plenty of fans who, on this date last year when they were 3 games below .500, were saying "screw it, blow it up." 

That's ironic. The Tigers succeeded because they sold the veterans at the deadline and went with their younger talent.

If the Twins make the playoffs, it will mean Correa and Lewis started playing like All-Stars, not because they hung onto Willi Castro, Brock Stewart and Chris Paddack.

[Nick Nelson]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If the Twins make the playoffs, it will mean Correa and Lewis started playing like All-Stars, not because they hung onto Willi Castro, Brock Stewart and Chris Paddack.

I mean, it'll probably be because both. Why is there a need to speak in absolutes like this? 

Imagine if Correa and Lewis started playing like All-Stars and the Twins missed the playoffs by a game because they traded one of their best hitters and relievers. That's what you're advocating for.

BTW, Twins' odds to make the postseason are 23% per FanGraphs and I'm buying on that estimate over whatever you're putting forth. It's a good team with an elite bullpen, about to get Pablo and Zebby and Keaschall back.

[D.C Twins]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

If they sweep the worst team in baseball history next weekend, they'll be above .500. Would that change your view? What if by the end of July they are tied for a wild-card spot? These are not outlandish scenarios. 

How many times do we have to watch a team have a big second half and race to the playoffs before we accept that it's pretty dang common? The Twins did it in 2023. The Tigers did it last year. They probably had plenty of fans who, on this date last year when they were 3 games below .500, were saying "screw it, blow it up." 

Castro and Coulombe and Stewart and Bader are "replaceable from within"? Come on. That is absurd. Have you seen the quality of players the Twins have had to turn to when their depth has run out?

Nick... you are essentially advocating for prolonged mediocrity.... which for me is the worst place to be in sports. 

Keep everyone under 26 and controllable SP. Trade the rest and build toward being great in 2027-8. 

The second half of this season and next can be like the 1984-1986 Twins.... getting young talent experience and seeing what we have and what we need. 

We do not need to cling to elite bullpen arms until 2027..... 

[D.C Twins]

12 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean, it'll probably be because both. Why is there a need to speak in absolutes like this? 

Imagine if Correa and Lewis started playing like All-Stars and the Twins missed the playoffs by a game because they traded one of their best hitters and relievers. That's what you're advocating for.

BTW, Twins' odds to make the postseason are 23% per FanGraphs and I'm buying on that estimate over whatever you're putting forth. It's a good team with an elite bullpen, about to get Pablo and Zebby and Keaschall back.

Good Correa is never coming back.... he is far more likely to break down in the second half of the season than magically recapture his Houston days.... 

Lewis cannot be part of any plan going forward.... just a pleasant surprise during the brief periods that he is healthy and hitting

[Nick Nelson]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Good Correa is never coming back.... he is far more likely to break down in the second half of the season than magically recapture his Houston days.... 

Lewis cannot be part of any plan going forward.... just a pleasant surprise during the brief periods that he is healthy and hitting

Okay. Then what's your plan with these guys?