Woods Richardson optioned to St Paul

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, goulik said:

I agree with everything you said here except the last 6 words. He has been good enough to be a 5th starter in most MLB rotations and honestly, good enough to be a 3rd starter on many past seasons of Twins Rotations (I know, real low bar but true). We just happen to have great options at AAA right now so that makes him look worse relatively speaking...

 

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

And SWR's ERA was 4.01 before he had a bad day yesterday.

Since the All Star Game last year, SWR has made 19 starts. His ERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 5.00 over that span, and he only had 3 games during that stint last year where his fastball really deviated from normal. Many pitchers benefit from a lack of scouting reports when they debut, then the scouting reports come out and the wheels fall off.

Across 3 seasons 2022-2024, there were 154 starters who threw at least 200 innings. Of that list, 13 had an ERA of 5.00 or higher, and their contract status (signed/current)
UFA / UFA - Noah Syndergaard
MLB / MLB - Brandon Pfaadt - ARI (4.05 FIP), 5yrs, $45MM
MiLB / MiLB - Adrian Houser - AAA, MiLB Contract, converted to reliever.
MLB / MLB - Trevor Rogers - BAL AAA (4.42 FIP), Arb2 $2.6MM
MLB / MLB - Ryan Feltner - COL (4.35 FIP), Arb1 $2.275MM
UFA / UFA - Zack Davies
MiLB / MiLB - Dakota Hudson - AAA, MiLB contract, spot starter
MiLB / MLB - Chris Flexen - CHC, MiLB contract, made the team at 1yr $1.25MM, converted to reliever.
MiLB / UFA - Carlos Corrasco - MiLB contract, released by NYY.
MLB / MLB - Austin Gomber - COL, Arb3, $6.35MM
UFA / UFA - Alex Wood
UFA / UFA - Jordan Lyles
MiLB / MLB - Patrick Corbin - TEX, MiLB contract, this is hard to even fathom, but he's starting again.

The track record isn't great for those guys to stick in an MLB rotation, unless you're pitching for the Colorado Rockies.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

 

Since the All Star Game last year, SWR has made 19 starts. His ERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 5.00 over that span, and he only had 3 games during that stint last year where his fastball really deviated from normal. Many pitchers benefit from a lack of scouting reports when they debut, then the scouting reports come out and the wheels fall off.

Across 3 seasons 2022-2024, there were 154 starters who threw at least 200 innings. Of that list, 13 had an ERA of 5.00 or higher, and their contract status (signed/current)
UFA / UFA - Noah Syndergaard
MLB / MLB - Brandon Pfaadt - ARI (4.05 FIP), 5yrs, $45MM
MiLB / MiLB - Adrian Houser - AAA, MiLB Contract, converted to reliever.
MLB / MLB - Trevor Rogers - BAL AAA (4.42 FIP), Arb2 $2.6MM
MLB / MLB - Ryan Feltner - COL (4.35 FIP), Arb1 $2.275MM
UFA / UFA - Zack Davies
MiLB / MiLB - Dakota Hudson - AAA, MiLB contract, spot starter
MiLB / MLB - Chris Flexen - CHC, MiLB contract, made the team at 1yr $1.25MM, converted to reliever.
MiLB / UFA - Carlos Corrasco - MiLB contract, released by NYY.
MLB / MLB - Austin Gomber - COL, Arb3, $6.35MM
UFA / UFA - Alex Wood
UFA / UFA - Jordan Lyles
MiLB / MLB - Patrick Corbin - TEX, MiLB contract, this is hard to even fathom, but he's starting again.

The track record isn't great for those guys to stick in an MLB rotation, unless you're pitching for the Colorado Rockies.

I remember when Snydergaard was greased lightning with the Mets.  Used to leave work early for days he pitched.

Ditto DeGrom.

[jorgenswest]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I figured you'd have to go SWR and something for a top guy.....but that ship is long gone as far as I can see. Not getting Teel before CWS did was an ooops. But I'm told Jenkins is 10000000x the player.....

I'd happily take a good SS prospect that is a few years away instead, plus a flyer.

It took Garret Crochet to get Teel. The Twins don’t have anyone that can match Crochet. I don’t see an oops here. 

[jorgenswest]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Since the All Star Game last year, SWR has made 19 starts. His ERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 5.00 over that span, and he only had 3 games during that stint last year where his fastball really deviated from normal. Many pitchers benefit from a lack of scouting reports when they debut, then the scouting reports come out and the wheels fall off.

Across 3 seasons 2022-2024, there were 154 starters who threw at least 200 innings. Of that list, 13 had an ERA of 5.00 or higher, and their contract status (signed/current)
UFA / UFA - Noah Syndergaard
MLB / MLB - Brandon Pfaadt - ARI (4.05 FIP), 5yrs, $45MM
MiLB / MiLB - Adrian Houser - AAA, MiLB Contract, converted to reliever.
MLB / MLB - Trevor Rogers - BAL AAA (4.42 FIP), Arb2 $2.6MM
MLB / MLB - Ryan Feltner - COL (4.35 FIP), Arb1 $2.275MM
UFA / UFA - Zack Davies
MiLB / MiLB - Dakota Hudson - AAA, MiLB contract, spot starter
MiLB / MLB - Chris Flexen - CHC, MiLB contract, made the team at 1yr $1.25MM, converted to reliever.
MiLB / UFA - Carlos Corrasco - MiLB contract, released by NYY.
MLB / MLB - Austin Gomber - COL, Arb3, $6.35MM
UFA / UFA - Alex Wood
UFA / UFA - Jordan Lyles
MiLB / MLB - Patrick Corbin - TEX, MiLB contract, this is hard to even fathom, but he's starting again.

The track record isn't great for those guys to stick in an MLB rotation, unless you're pitching for the Colorado Rockies.

Do you think age matters? Woods Richardson is 24. Rogers and Pfaadt are 26. Did I miss anyone with age and possible upside in their favor? Maybe age is irrelevant.

Do Frank Viola’s occur anymore? In his first two years (age 22 and 23) he had an ERA-of 122 and 128 after 336 innings. I am not saying that Woods Richardson is Viola and a future Cy Young. I am just wondering about whether age is an important factor to consider for his future as a starter.

I am optimistic about Woods Richardson because he is 24. I think he can improve on his career ERA- of 112 over his age 23 and 24 seasons. Perhaps it is blind optimism.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Since the All Star Game last year, SWR has made 19 starts. His ERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 5.00 over that span, and he only had 3 games during that stint last year where his fastball really deviated from normal. Many pitchers benefit from a lack of scouting reports when they debut, then the scouting reports come out and the wheels fall off.

Across 3 seasons 2022-2024, there were 154 starters who threw at least 200 innings. Of that list, 13 had an ERA of 5.00 or higher, and their contract status (signed/current)
UFA / UFA - Noah Syndergaard
MLB / MLB - Brandon Pfaadt - ARI (4.05 FIP), 5yrs, $45MM
MiLB / MiLB - Adrian Houser - AAA, MiLB Contract, converted to reliever.
MLB / MLB - Trevor Rogers - BAL AAA (4.42 FIP), Arb2 $2.6MM
MLB / MLB - Ryan Feltner - COL (4.35 FIP), Arb1 $2.275MM
UFA / UFA - Zack Davies
MiLB / MiLB - Dakota Hudson - AAA, MiLB contract, spot starter
MiLB / MLB - Chris Flexen - CHC, MiLB contract, made the team at 1yr $1.25MM, converted to reliever.
MiLB / UFA - Carlos Corrasco - MiLB contract, released by NYY.
MLB / MLB - Austin Gomber - COL, Arb3, $6.35MM
UFA / UFA - Alex Wood
UFA / UFA - Jordan Lyles
MiLB / MLB - Patrick Corbin - TEX, MiLB contract, this is hard to even fathom, but he's starting again.

The track record isn't great for those guys to stick in an MLB rotation, unless you're pitching for the Colorado Rockies.

I'm not predicting greatness for SWR, far from it.

But when a guy pitches roughly a league-average rookie season while blowing through his innings record by over 30 innings, then follows it up by once again being roughly league-average the following season through six starts, one bad start doesn't change my opinion of him much.

At the very least, I give him more leash to see if he can work through it, especially in a rotation that is rock-solid. Letting one 24-year-old figure it out isn't going to kill the team.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think age matters? Woods Richardson is 24. Rogers and Pfaadt are 26. Did I miss anyone with age and possible upside in their favor? Maybe age is irrelevant.

Do Frank Viola’s occur anymore? In his first two years (age 22 and 23) he had an ERA-of 122 and 128 after 336 innings. I am not saying that Woods Richardson is Viola and a future Cy Young. I am just wondering about whether age is an important factor to consider for his future as a starter.

I am optimistic about Woods Richardson because he is 24. I think he can improve on his career ERA- of 112 over his age 23 and 24 seasons. Perhaps it is blind optimism.

 

Age and team control matter a lot, and so does whether or not a team is competitive or they have time to let a struggling player work through adjustments at the MLB level. It's tough to compare how Viola was viewed to SWR, now 40 years later. I base my expectations on not only SWR's results, but his stuff+ score and the peripherals. Pitchers do reinvent themselves and get better, and Joe Ryan is a good example, but I just don't think it's that common.

[Linus]

I just hope this isn’t because the league has adjusted to him. My impression of him was a guy that mixed four pitches and was not predictable. I recently saw a pitch breakdown and he was throwing primarily fastball and slider. This is just my feeble memory but he isn’t a guy that can say here is my stuff, see if you can hit it. He has to mix things up and fool guys a bit. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not predicting greatness for SWR, far from it.

But when a guy pitches roughly a league-average rookie season while blowing through his innings record by over 30 innings, then follows it up by once again being roughly league-average the following season through six starts, one bad start doesn't change my opinion of him much.

At the very least, I give him more leash to see if he can work through it, especially in a rotation that is rock-solid. Letting one 24-year-old figure it out isn't going to kill the team.

It seems like we have this conversation every other year. He was toast as a prospect prior to last year and then I realized he was only 22.  Many threads trying to put a stake in the Berrios deal at the time. I forgot again today but I distinctly remember arguing for patience then and it still applies here.

It doesn't really change what I think he needs to work on but he still has a ton of value and potential to unlock.

Very few pitchers even see the big leagues at his age, much less have the success that he's had.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

I just hope this isn’t because the league has adjusted to him. My impression of him was a guy that mixed four pitches and was not predictable. I recently saw a pitch breakdown and he was throwing primarily fastball and slider. This is just my feeble memory but he isn’t a guy that can say here is my stuff, see if you can hit it. He has to mix things up and fool guys a bit. 

SWR's pitch splits.
vs. RHB = 50% Four seam, 30% Slider, 15% Curve, 5% Change
vs. LHB = 50% Four seam, 20% Change, 20% Slider, 10% Curve

A couple things to consider.
1. He throws his fastball way too much.
2. His fastball stinks.
3. He's a 3 pitch pitcher against RHB.
4. Adding the changeup to RHB is not an option. They're "slugging" 1.333 on it this year, and .923 on it last year, and the expected slugging is just as bad. The changeup should pretty much never be thrown to a righty.
5. His changeup isn't great against LHB, either.

I was a huge fan of SWR's potential when we got him from Toronto. I have to be honest, all the advanced metrics, the stuff evaluation and how hitters have tee'd off against pretty much everything other than his slider makes me think he's a bullpen guy. Dial up another 1-2mph on the heater, ditch the changeup, and start throwing the curve to lefties.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

It took Garret Crochet to get Teel. The Twins don’t have anyone that can match Crochet. I don’t see an oops here. 

They got more than teel.... It's not an oops by the twins, he was one of the very few they could even try to get. It was a comment, not a criticism. I get that's hard to tell on the Internet, so I should have been more clear. It was also a comment about not drafting him.

[Linus]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

SWR's pitch splits.
vs. RHB = 50% Four seam, 30% Slider, 15% Curve, 5% Change
vs. LHB = 50% Four seam, 20% Change, 20% Slider, 10% Curve

A couple things to consider.
1. He throws his fastball way too much.
2. His fastball stinks.
3. He's a 3 pitch pitcher against RHB.
4. Adding the changeup to RHB is not an option. They're "slugging" 1.333 on it this year, and .923 on it last year, and the expected slugging is just as bad. The changeup should pretty much never be thrown to a righty.
5. His changeup isn't great against LHB, either.

I was a huge fan of SWR's potential when we got him from Toronto. I have to be honest, all the advanced metrics, the stuff evaluation and how hitters have tee'd off against pretty much everything other than his slider makes me think he's a bullpen guy. Dial up another 1-2mph on the heater, ditch the changeup, and start throwing the curve to lefties.

Agreed about the fastball. It either needs to be better ( not sure how that happens) or needs to be thrown less. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

18 hours ago, wabene said:

I'll eat my hat if Sim is traded this year...

 

 

 

Strangely edible looking hat...

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Weird question.

 

If Funderburk had been sent back down, the doubleheader would not have counted against the minimum he has to remain in the minors to be called back up, would it.

 

Does that also count for SWR? even if it is only one day sooner?

[wabene]

45 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Strangely edible looking hat...

Gotta hedge your bets

[laloesch]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

Agreed about the fastball. It either needs to be better ( not sure how that happens) or needs to be thrown less. 

I agree with one of the other posters.  Last season he was an unknown in the first half until his opponents saw him pitch a few times, got tape of him, and then the scouting reports started rolling out.  This season he's not an unknown and now his weaknesses are in those scouting reports, and opponents are making him pay. 

To be 100% honest his changeup is garbage and he throws that fastball far too often and right down the middle much of the time.  The Twins sent him down to try and figure things out, which is the right move IMO. 

All that said, I don't understand why some of the high-profile commenters here are saying "give him a longer leash to work things out, he deserves it."  Really?  Do you want them to win games or not?  Let him work out the kinks in AAA.  He's had a bunch of very short starts this season and labored through most of them, not throwing his best stuff. 

The Twins NEED to keep winning to have any chance at the playoffs this year after the huge hole they dug themselves to start the season.  Makes zero sense to keep him in the rotation when Festa and Matthews having arguably better stuff and appear ready.  The same goes for the guys in the batting order.   

 

 

[laloesch]

On 5/15/2025 at 10:18 AM, mnfireman said:

Festa hasn't gotten through 5 innings in his twins starts this season either, but is the better option going forward.

To be perfectly fair though, Rocco pulled him early in his first two starts in my opinion.  He could have thrown an additional 20 pitches in each of those starts, but Rocco pulled the plug on both for whatever reason.  The last start against the White Sox he was laboring so that one made sense yanking him early.  I'm not sure he's a rotation answer long term either, but I think he has better stuff than SWR.  

[mnfireman]

Looks like Zebby likely to get the call-up, he's not starting for St. Paul tonight, Festa and Morris still probable for their starts tomorrow and Sunday.