Week in Review: Falling Short

[Nick Nelson]

The streaky offense continues to frustrate, and the highly touted Twins pitching staff is off to a gravely disappointing start. While Minnesota managed to find its way into the win column and stabilize a bit over the past week, this team still isn't doing much to inspire.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

The Nutshell
This leadoff section is a new one for the column, and it'll appear at the top each week, followed by the Week in Review content you're accustomed to: weekly snapshot, game results, highlights, lowlights, trending storylines and what's next. In the spirit of delivering an easy-to-digest rundown of key info from the past week, I'm adding this "Nutshell" as a ~100 word executive summary leading into the more detailed breakdowns and analysis. 

Over the past week, the focus for the Twins was on stopping the bleeding, and they were able to do so ... to some extent. They got their first three wins, and certainly a 3-6 record looks a lot better than 0-3, but the Twins also mixed in some really bad and concerning losses, including on Sunday when they blew a six-run lead to close the week on a very sour note.

Read on for full details and reflections on the first full week of the season.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 3/31 through Sun, 4/6
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 3-6)
Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: -12)
Standing: T-3rd Place in AL Central (2.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 4 | CWS 9, MIN 0: Twins Unravel on All Fronts in Utter Debacle

• Paddack: 3.1 IP, 9 ER, 4 BB, 3 HR

Game 5 | MIN 8, CWS 3: Floodgates Finally Open in First Win of Season

• Bullpen: 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 K

Game 6 | MIN 6, CWS 1: Twins Take Series Behind Strong Pablo Start

• Lopez: 7 IP, 1 ER; Buxton 2/4, HR

Game 7 | HOU 5, MIN 2: Bats Cool Off in Chilly Home-Opening Loss

• Twins lineup: 11 K, 0 BB

Game 8 | MIN 6, HOU 1: Another Sudden Mid-Game Surge Lifts Twins

• Miranda: 3-R HR

Game 9 | HOU 9, MIN 7: Big Early Lead Evaporates as Pitching Flounders 

• Jax: Allowed game-tying 2-R HR in 9th

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NEWS & NOTES
Among the four players who opened the season on the injured list for the Twins, Brooks Lee looks to be on the fastest track to returning. When he started experiencing back soreness toward the end of spring training, Lee and team officials expressed hope and optimism that this bout wasn't as severe as what he dealt with last year, when he was sidelined into June. So far, so good: Lee started a rehab assignment with Class-A Fort Myers on Sunday, playing seven innings at shortstop and finishing 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts.

He'll likely need a little time to get himself into the groove after having his spring camp cut short by the injury, but it's quite promising to see Lee back in action already. He could be poised to rejoin the Twins around the midpoint of April.

HIGHLIGHTS
The biggest bright spot of this young season for me, without question, has been watching a genuinely healthy Byron Buxton play baseball. I cannot remember the last time he looked as comfortable and uninhibited on the field as he has through this first handful of games. He shook off a quiet first series to go 6-for-21 with two doubles and a home run, and stole two bases. Buxton has started all nine games in center field and appears to be playing without limitation.

Like Buxton, Matt Wallner put his forgettable first series behind him and turned it on over the past week, posting a 7-for-19 line that included four hits on Sunday. The big power hasn't quite shown up yet but Wallner has a .371 on-base percentage through nine games and that's what you like to see from your leadoff man. Wallner has struck out just eight times with five walks through 35 plate appearances; last year he was demoted to Triple-A after striking out 17 times in his first 33 plate appearances.

Pablo López rebounded from his shaky Opening Day start with a much-improved performance on Wednesday, tossing seven innings of one-run ball. Granted, it came against the lowly White Sox, but the level of competition didn't prevent other starters from struggling in the series. I would say López is one of the only pitchers on the staff who has looked unequivocally "good" to me on the mound so far – even in his first outing, he was bitten more by bad luck and bad defensive execution than bad pitching.

LOWLIGHTS
Over the 12-31 stretch of games that saw the Twins implode at the end of last year and stumble into this one, we saw a lot of ugly losses. Monday's game in Chicago might take the cake. It was maybe the worst Twins performance I have ever witnessed, when you consider the context of it: a down-bad Minnesota squad desperately looking to get on track, going against literally the worst team in baseball.

Chris Paddack completely melted down against a horrid lineup, surrending nine earned runs. Meanwhile Martín Pérez struck out nine over six no-hit innings, combining with two no-name White Sox relievers for a shutout. Buxton and Correa came out before the game was halfway over in a white-flag move. Willi Castro pitched. Mickey Gasper played left field and Edouard Julien played shortstop. It was disgraceful. Things thankfully got better from that point forward, but I would be remiss not to lead with this game as the lowlight of the week and hopefully the season.

The Twins went 3-2 for the rest of the week following that brutal beatdown from the White Sox, and the offense finally showed up thereafter. However, we continued to see the same feast-or-famine routine that frustratingly defined this lineup for much of last season. They started the week with 14 consecutive scoreless innings, then scored five in the sixth on Tuesday. They scored two in the first inning of their home-opening series against Houston, then got blanked for the next 10 straight before putting up a six-spot in the fourth inning on Saturday. Just too many lengthy stretches of nothingness. Is that just what we are inevitably doomed to with this personnel? 

In Sunday's gut-wrenching loss, Minnesota built a 7-1 lead with an early explosion, and then the hitters went kaput, setting the stage for an Astros comeback that flipped the narrative on the week. There have been plenty of contributors in this failure to click offensively, but Carlos Correa is definitely at the head of the list; he went 4-for-21 and is slashing .125/.200/.156 on the young season while batting second everyday. He's setting the tone for an offense that's batting .195 overall.

That said, even if the scoring distribution was funky and the consistency lacking, you can't really fault too much an offense that averaged nearly five runs per game. The pitching staff has been by far the most disappointing part of this team so far. 

Paddack looked terrible once again in his second start on Sunday, and played a key role in blowing Minnesota's early lead by failing to take care of business with a sizable margin, forcing Rocco Baldelli to remove him after just four innings. The right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs on 13 hits and six walks through 7 ⅓ innings, notching only four strikeouts. With top prospects making their case at Triple-A, Paddack's hold on a rotation spot has to be tenuous.

He has definitely looked the worst among Twins pitchers, but no one has looked all that great. Joe Ryan gave up two homers and four earned runs to take a loss in the home opener. Bailey Ober looked better on Saturday than in his first start, but still was not especially sharp, needing 84 pitches to get through four innings. After nearly two full turns in the Twins rotation, López is the only starter to throw into the sixth even once.

The bullpen has also been pretty iffy, and it starts at the top. Griffin Jax, who was expected to lead the unit coming off a breakthrough season, is off to a stunningly poor start, having already allowed two homers through his first three appearances. That includes a back-breaker on Sunday when Jax entered with a two-run lead and immediately coughed it up on a leadoff single followed by a Yordan Alvarez home run. Gonna take a while for Jax's WPA to recover from this one. If he's not the guy we thought he was, then the whole outlook for this bullpen changes.

TRENDING STORYLINE
All of the short outings from the Twins rotation have left the team in a tough spot. The four-inning starts from Ober and Paddack on Saturday and Sunday required Baldelli to lean on his bullpen for 11 innings, and now Minnesota's next scheduled day off isn't until April 17th. Getting through the packed schedule in front of them is going to be a challenge for the Twins, especially with few of their starters demonstrating any ability to work deep into games. 

As you can see above from our bullpen usage tracker above, the relief corps is stretched thin, with Jorge Alcala the only thing resembling a fresh arm as we enter a new week. We'll see how they manage things in the days ahead, but I presume Darren McCaughan is in line for a DFA to bring in another arm – unfortunate since the journeyman has actually looked surprisingly impressive in his opportunities.

LOOKING AHEAD
Get ready for a tour of the AL Central, with the Twins heading to Kansas City for a four-game set against the Royals and then returning home for three against the Tigers. I'm presently in KC and will be in attendance for the Monday and Tuesday games at Kauffman. The latter of those should make for a great matchup, with two contenders for the title of "best pitcher in the division" facing off in López and Cole Ragans.

Are the Twins ready to reassert themselves in the Central after getting passed up in 2024 by three teams, including these two? Time to make a statement and show they can actually win some close games.

MONDAY, APRIL 7: TWINS @ ROYALS — RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Michael Lorenzen
TUESDAY, APRIL 8: TWINS @ ROYALS — RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Cole Ragans
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 9: TWINS @ ROYALS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Seth Lugo
THURSDAY, APRIL 10: TWINS @ ROYALS — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Michael Wacha
FRIDAY, APRIL 11: TIGERS @ TWINS — RHP Reese Olson v. RHP Chris Paddack
SATURDAY, APRIL 12: TIGERS @ TWINS — RHP Jackson Jobe v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
SUNDAY, APRIL 13: TIGERS @ TWINS — RHP Casey Mize v. RHP Pablo Lopez

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[Vanimal46]

Pretty important week of baseball coming up, and the bullpen is gassed. A bad week could bury this team to the point of no return. 

[Peter]

Had they won today I would’ve taken 4-3 road trip but after today-not likely-this was crushing loss ruined whole day for me despite wild/mnufc winning. This type of loss is season ending and I’m not sure if twins can recover from this. I hope I’m wrong but this loss hurts big time and will take long time to get over

[thelanges5]

If they can’t win at least 3 out of 7 they’ll be in trouble. Lucky the central hasn’t been playing that well as whole. That more than likely won’t continue. 

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Pretty important week of baseball coming up, and the bullpen is gassed. A bad week could bury this team to the point of no return. 

Make it not be Funderburk.. please..

[DocBauer]

To be honest, I'm really disappointed in the early results so far. I can understand and forgive a cold start from a few players, but it's almost as if everyone has suffered from the flu bug that hit Ober and Julien hard. Maybe it has and we don't know?

But for the most part, this team is still too good, IMO, even with Lewis, Lee, and Stewart out to be playing this poorly. But it's had a handful of weird and close plays that have changed the course of a couple games that have been frustrating. How do we have 3 balks already when we had something like 10 all of last season? (Though a couple are very debatable). How does such a smart player like Lopez mess up twice? How does a GG defender and veteran like Bader not throw the ball to Correa Sunday to prevent a tag to home? 

It hasn't been pretty for sure. It could be worse, but it should be better. But after only 9 games, I'm still tempered by SSSS in a 162 game season. I mean, the Giants are the dominate team in the NL West and the Braves are 1-8 through 9 games in the NL East. And Detroit leads the ALC and the Angels are in 2nd place in the ALW at 6-3. 

Frankly, I'm p*issed about today's blow game and a loss that should have been an easy win. But even in SSSS the pen has been solid. Who would ever guess that Jax might be an early outlier in poor performance? Crap happens! Would anyone bet against Jax for the remainder of the season?

The offense isn't close to consistent yet, but Wallner, Correa, and Buxton are heating up. Larnach and Castro have been solid. Jeffers has been OK. Bader has surprised so far. They need more from the supporting cast. France has looked solid at 1B. (I wish he had played today because the close play at 1B would have been an out). After the HR he hit Saturday, I would have had Miranda in the lineup feeling, potentially, more confident. 

Lee should be back fairly soon. That could help. Lewis is further along, hopefully May 1st. And at some point later on, Keaschall and then Rodriguez will be up as quality additions. But it's time for France...despite a couple good games...and Miranda and Julien to put up or be shut out. Even still, there's enough talent to be more productive than they have been. But at least we are seeing life from the offense.

I don't want to be overly positive, but Paddack was solid for 4 IP today, which is a hell of a lot better than his first start. There's still some upside with him healthy. And he's going to get another turn or two to see what he's got. And that makes sense to me. But if he doesn't extend his effectiveness, it will be time to move him to the pen. And he should swallow some pride and realize that might be best for his career.

The pen has been largely solid before today. We've seen the potential. When the 12th/13th option has a bad game after a couple good appearances and one of your BP ACES has a bad appearance, it's still really hard for me to have a negative feeling about the pen.

I'm not trying to put lipstick on a pig for a disappointing start to the season. We have given away at least 2 games so far that would make us 5-4 and tied for the ALC. But I'm not ready to panic after 9 games. 

I'm disappointed because I thought there was enough talent and strength, despite a couple injuries, for this team to at least be .500 for the first few series. I'm disappointed in the production of the offense, can understand a flu affecting certain players, as well as the human imperfection quantity. But it doesn't fully excuse my initial disappointment. 

Even still, we're talking about 9 games in a 162 game marathon. 

There's a very long season still ahead of us.

 

[RpR]

Too bad we do not play Atlanta next week.

[Blyleven2011]

Week in review  ...

Really there is not anything more to say about the start of the season  that our eyes haven't seen ...

The team has played inconsistent baseball and the only place to go is up , let's play some better competitive exciting baseball boys of summer ...

[Doctor Gast]

The narrative is that the BP is gassed? The 2 pitchers to blame are Paddack who hasn't pitched that much but gave up 4 runs & Jax, who gave up 2 runs and has pitched the least in the BP. Varland, until recently, has been an SP, he also gave up 2 runs, but I don't think he was gassed. IMO, the problem was throwing him into the high-leverage dreaded extra innings "ghost runner" situation when he just started to be a RP, where he had no right of being.

Could the BP be gassed in the near future & be the cause for a loss? Yes, but not this one. IMO, it'd be prudish if they bring up a couple of long RPs (Mathews & or Festa) to preserve the BP if the SPs can't even make it to 5 innings. Also Paddack should be considered for that role in the BP until he can show that he can go more than 3 quality innings. 

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, RpR said:

Too bad we do not play Atlanta next week.

Ugh, with our luck that's when the Braves would start scoring runs again!

[Doctor Wu]

Hoping for a quality SWR start tomorrow, but I honestly can't see him pitching more than 6 innings at the very most. Gassed they may be, but we are going to need someone in the bullpen to pitch a few innings.

[LambchoP]

What's most worrying is that it's not one thing, it's everything. The pitching, the offense, the little league defense. I'd give Paddack one more start, if he can't throw a quality start then demote him to long man in the pen and call up Zebby. Gasper and Julien need to go. Not sure what's up with Brock Stewart, I thought he was still throwing even when placed on the IL, why isn't he on a rehab assignment? At least Lee is playing again, even though he went 0-3 with 2 strikeouts against A ball pitching:(. Team needs to figure things out, and quick ..