OOTP Simulation: The Minnesota Twins Can Win The 2025 World Series

[Matthew Lenz]

David Schoenfield of ESPN recently ran 25 simulations of Out Of The Park Baseball to help predict some of the “unexpected stars” of the 2025 season. Not only did the Minnesota Twins have an unexpected star, but the team as a whole accomplished something it hasn't since 1991.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

For those unfamiliar, Out Of The Park Baseball (OOTP) is an in-depth, highly realistic baseball simulation game. Players can put themselves in the shoes of their favorite team’s General Manager and Field Manager making everything from roster decisions, scouting, and overall team strategy all the while managing what's happening on the field. While you can't actually control the players on the field, you can manage the game one pitch at a time controlling your hitter’s plate approach and pitcher’s pitch sequencing.

Schoenfield used the game to simulate the 2025 season 25 times and had two surprising results related to the Twins.

Three World Series Championships
You read that right. In three of the 25 simulated seasons, the Twins were crowned World Series champions. Oddly enough, they won the World Series in the first three simulations before coming up short in the remaining 22.

 

The Twins currently have the 14th-best odds to win the World Series at 25-1, so it's surprising to see them win in 12% of simulated seasons. If anything, it speaks to the talent and depth that the Twins have on their roster and the ceiling this team can reach if everything goes right. Unfortunately (and unsurprisingly), things are already falling apart for the Twins as a myriad of projected contributors are expected to start the season on the injured list or in St. Paul. Most notably, Royce Lewis (hamstring) and Brooks Lee (back) are already on the IL, and Austin Martin was optioned to Triple-A - St. Paul after playing 93 games for the Twins last season.

It's not the start of the season that we hoped for, but you don't win the marathon, which is the Major League Baseball season, in the first month of the season. The Twins have what it takes to prove OOTP right, but they must get and remain healthy to reach the pinnacle. A lot of that falls on the other “unexpected star” projected by the simulation activity.

Byron Buxton Makes An MVP Case
What would be more surprising: a Twins World Series or Byron Buxton playing 150 games? In the eyes of OOTP, both of these things could happen. It's unclear whether the stat line projected by OOTP is Buxton’s best output or an average of all 25 simulations (I assume the former), but across 150 games, he posted a .275 batting average and 34 home runs, accruing 8.0 WAR.

We know that Buxton has the talent not just to reach those numbers but to exceed those numbers. Despite never playing more than 102 games in any season, Buxton has career highs of a .279 batting average set in 2024 and 28 home runs set in 2022. If we were to get a healthy season from Buxton, a .275 batting average and 34 home runs is a very real possibility. Add his centerfield defense (although he'd probably be splitting time between there and DH), and he’d absolutely be in the MVP conversation by the season’s end.

OOTP gives Twins fans something to dream about, and the simulation comes at a time when we need it. OOTP confirms one thing: If the Twins can overcome the injuries they're already facing while keeping their other stars on the field, they have a shot at a magical season. 

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If everything goes right, what do you see as the Twins' ceiling in 2025? If Buxton stays healthy, do you think we can put up a performance worthy of MVP votes? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Karbo]

I wonder how often their predictions actually happen or how close they normally are?

[Guest]

I'll have whatever you're drinking....

[bean5302]

Buxton doesn't have 8 WAR talent. In 150 games, Buxton will produce 5-6 WAR, if he hasn't started his decline.

Let's play the I believe Byron Buxton is an MVP candidate and a prospect game again this year. Let's pretend Byron Buxton plays in 150 games every single year since his rookie season. How much WAR would Buxton have generated?
2015 = 0.3
2016 = 3.1
2017 = 4.8
2018 = (2.7)
2019 = 5.3
2020 = 5.0
2021 = 10.1
2022 = 5.7
2023 = 1.1
2024 = 5.4
I think it's pretty obvious what the outlier seasons are (bolded) where the SSS monster came out to play. In the last 5 believable seasons, Buxton has generated between 4.8-5.7 WAR. That's Buxton. That's his ceiling if he played 150 games (which will never ever ever happen)

Someday... far far far into the future, I hope writers on this site will stop pretending who Buxton might be and accept and enjoy who he is.

[mikelink45]

Did the simulation include the first two games?

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Someday... far far far into the future, I hope writers on this site will stop pretending who Buxton might be and accept and enjoy who he is.

HERESY!!!

Repeat after me…BUCK’S CAREER 244 BA, 304 OBP, AND 29% K-RATE ARE ONLY BECAUSE HE’S NEVER PLAYED A GAME WHILE HEALTHY…BUCK’S CAREER 244 BA, 304 OBP, AND 29% K-RATE ARE ONLY BECAUSE HE’S NEVER PLAYED A GAME WHILE HEALTHY…BUCK’S CAREER 244 BA, 304 OBP, AND 29% K-RATE ARE ONLY BECAUSE HE’S NEVER PLAYED A GAME WHILE HEALTHY…THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT…THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT…THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT.

Those that don’t drinking the kool-aide will be marched out to the airport and shot.

[DocBauer]

Fun!

Not actual. A dream is 120 games from Buxton.

Lewis playing 120 games changes things and offsets Buxton's missing games.

Lee being healthy and improving takes the Twins up a notch.

Rodriguez and Keaschall debuting and taking the Twins up another notch, or two, makes a difference. 

It's fun talk. But it's too few iterations of the season to really mean anything.

[Aerodeliria]

How about winning a game to start....

[FargoFanMan]

As someone who plays OOTP the great thing about the game is that it incorporates a lot of realism. As part of that realism you’ll get the randomness that a guy can put together a monster season when he puts it all together and everything breaks right. In the game with Buxtons skill set in particular having everything work and simulating it 25 times you can have him putting up a monster season. You’ll also have a season where he falls off a cliff as well. In 25 simulations any team in the top half has a chance to put it all together for a run. I wouldn’t be too excited after watching the first two games.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm skeptical of any game because I wonder how close the game can come to the intangibles. But I'll concede that we have a very good core & if they had better player evaluations to better see the needs of the team, make the necessary trades, fire up the team & better manage the team, the team should have finished much better in the postseason last season instead of the measy 4th place in the AL Central.

Management likes to blame injuries (all teams have injuries), the hitting coaches (although they were just following the hitting philosophy they were given), not be able to sign FAs MAT & Rhyse Hoskin because we didn't have the money & now they'll blame the players, saying that they are no good. Heaven forbid that their ineptitude (besides pitching) is to blame.

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, jkcarew said:

HERESY!!!

...ARE ONLY BECAUSE HE’S NEVER PLAYED A GAME WHILE HEALTHY…THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT…THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT…THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT.

Those that don’t drinking the kool-aide will be marched out to the airport and shot.

Replace Buck with "Kirilloff" and you'd have that spot on.