Wait. Could Bailey Ober Really Win the 2025 AL Cy Young?

[USAFChief]

Whoops...

[LeatherAntenna]

24 minutes ago, LeatherAntenna said:

Watching Ober today through 40 pitches and I’m thinking this story needs some serious editing.

My bad, I need to edit my comment—…Through 64 pitches…..

[exeoud]

I don't think you're qualified for any type of baseball analysis.

[FanFromPhilly]

Just dropped by to join in the heckling!  Of course, one start isn't a season but it's not an impressive beginning.

[Eric Blonigen]

36 minutes ago, LeatherAntenna said:

My bad, I need to edit my comment—…Through 64 pitches…..

Yep. This is exactly the sort of clunker start I referenced. Similar to his first two starts against the royals last season. I stand by the premise, although the timing is unfortunate.

[Eric Blonigen]

27 minutes ago, exeoud said:

I don't think you're qualified for any type of baseball analysis.

Good addition to the discussion!

[exeoud]

5 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Yep. This is exactly the sort of clunker start I referenced. Similar to his first two starts against the royals last season. I stand by the premise, although the timing is unfortunate.

Cy Young candidates do not have clunker starts on the level Ober does (Royals/Braves last year, and today). Having a single 8 ER short start turns a 3 ERA over 200 innings into around a 3.30, practically takes you out of the running already. There's the answer to your headline.

[David Maro]

Yep a 27.00 era will put you in the running for a CY.

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, old nurse said:

Robbie Ray, Porchello, R.A Dickey were one year wonders, Juechel and Arrietta had 2 great years in a row. My post had nothing to do with career years. It was a simple statement of fact that to get to the elite levels Ober and Ryan have to lower the HR/9, BB%, and increase K%. I would also contend that they would have to be a lot better than the pedigree pitchers as the career years might be construed as luck 

And yet you just cited 5 examples of how it COULD happen.

[old nurse]

17 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

And yet you just cited 5 examples of how it COULD happen.

I also stated what he would have to do to get there. That is quite a leap in performance to do from a solid starter to an elite one.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

I also stated what he would have to do to get there. That is quite a leap in performance to do from a solid starter to an elite one.

He is one of the top dozen starters in the AL.  The leap is not as dramatic as you believe.

 

[Vanimal46]

Dang it - meant to post in another thread 

[Rigby]

The "sigh" Young.....

[old nurse]

On 3/30/2025 at 7:19 PM, dxpavelka said:

He is one of the top dozen starters in the AL.  The leap is not as dramatic as you believe.

 

One could hardly tell the difference last year between Skubal or Sale pitching versus what Ober was doing. Sure thing 

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

One could hardly tell the difference last year between Skubal or Sale pitching versus what Ober was doing. Sure thing 

Pretty sure LAST year will have little to do with THIS year.  Interesting that you brought up Sale, who maybe more than any other pitcher in the game is walking proof that one year as absolutely NO bearing on the next.  His combined WAR from 2018 thru 2023 is less than his 2018 or 2024

 

 

[notoriousgod71]

No 😁

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

No 😁

Betteridge's Law of Headlines strikes again.  Any headline ending in a question mark can typically be answered with "no."

Not sure it really required the full 4 months to reach this conclusion, either.