2025 AL Central Preview: Chicago White Sox

[Eric Blonigen]

The good thing about hitting rock bottom is there’s only one direction to go. For the Chicago White Sox, this is great news, coming off of the worst season in modern major-league history. What’s their outlook heading into the 2025 season?

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Each year, The Athletic conducts a fan survey to capture the vibes for all 30 teams in baseball. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the White Sox fanbase has the lowest levels of optimism about the franchise of any team, with just 8.7% of respondents expressing hope for 2025. One fan, “Pessimist John”, said of the team: “Rooting for the White Sox is like missing a tooth. Your tongue knows it’ll hurt, but it keeps going back to it again and again. It hurts every time, and you tell your tongue to find somewhere — anywhere — else in your mouth to go, but it keeps coming back to that pit of pain and misery.”

Last Year
Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. The 2024 White Sox lost 21 games in a row, a franchise record, en route to losing 121 games, the most in baseball history. They fired their manager, Pedro Grifol, during the season. After letting Grady Sizemore finish out the campaign as an interim skipper, they then hired Will Venable in his place. They traded away stud starting pitchers Dylan Cease (in March) and Garrett Crochet (in December), as well as Erick Fedde, Michael Kopeck, Eloy Jiménez, and Tommy Pham in July, netting a haul of prospects that help make their farm system the fourth-best in baseball, per Baseball America.

Other losses

• Yoan Moncada - was a free agent following the 2024 season, and is expected to be the Angels' everyday third baseman (er, every day that he's healthy; he's going to start the season on the injured list)
• Michael Soroka - became a free agent following the 2024 season and signed a one-year, $9-million deal with the Nationals
• Chris Flexen - signed a minor-league deal with the Cubs
• Nicky Lopez - was a 3/4-time player last year; signed a minor-league deal with the Cubs but didn't make the team
• Gavin Sheets - got 501 ABs with the Sox last season and was then designated for assignment; signed a minor-league deal with the Padres and is having a good camp

Looking ahead to 2025

PECOTA projects the White Sox to go 61.5-100.5 in 2025. To be clear, projection systems are designed to regress players and teams toward the mean level of performance. Typically, projections are run thousands of times, and the results are averaged. When a team is projected to lose over 100 games, the outcome is often even worse. Will the 2025 White Sox actually challenge their own record from last season? Probably not. But they most assuredly won’t be good. Let’s look at their offseason additions, and remember some guys.

Key signings

• Martín Pérez - the staff ace for the 2025 White Sox, Pérez’s best days are likely behind him, as he has posted just one season with more than 0.7 fWAR over the past five years. After signing him to a $5-million deal, the best-case scenario for the White Sox is probably to hope for a few solid months, then trade him for a mid-level prospect.
• Austin Slater - a weak-side platoon outfield bat. The White Sox signed him to a one-year, $1.75-million contract. He injured his oblique in spring training, and he likely starts the season on the IL.
• Mike Tauchman - will likely be an everyday outfielder in 2025, despite his career 5.1 fWAR across seven seasons.
• Bryse Wilson - signed a one-year, $1.05-million deal. He has been a replacement-level swingman throughout his career, and offers more of the same to a White Sox rotation that fans can’t feel good about.
• Josh Rojas - was the “big” infielder pickup, signing for $3.5 million this offseason to replace Yoan Moncada; he'll also start the season on the shelf
• Michael A Taylor - signed a minor-league deal, but is very likely to be pressed into major-league duty despite a down 2024 season. He's been dealing with elbow soreness and has been getting some scans to determine the cause and treatment.

The 2025 White Sox roster is collectively forecast for 15.9 fWAR. For perspective, just the pitching side of the projected 2025 Twins 26-man roster figures to generate roughly the same value. Digging in, here’s how the different parts of the roster shake out.

Rotation - projected for 5.0 fWAR
It’s a good thing there’s virtually no chance the White Sox make the playoffs, as they just don’t have a playoff-caliber starting pitcher on their likely 26-man roster. Pérez was, at one point, maybe, but not now. Jonathan Cannon and surprise Opening Day starter Sean Burke are at least young and carry a bit of projectability, although mid-rotation work is the likely upside for both. This rotation is going to be lousy, and not even in an interesting way.

• Martín Pérez - 1.2
• Jonathan Cannon - 1.1
• Davis Martin - 1.3
• Sean Burke - 1.0
• Bryse Wilson - 0.4

Bullpen - projected for 0.4 fWAR
It’s rare for an entire bullpen to be comprised of fungible guys. This group is just that, however, with nary an impact arm among them. There’s probably not much to dig into here, from an analysis standpoint. Just know that the team is planning to deploy former starter and contemptible dude Mike Clevinger as the closer, and you understand all you need to about this unit.

• Justin Anderson - 0.1
• Mike Clevinger - -0.2
• Fraser Ellard - 0.1
• Gus Garland - 0.0
• Cam Booser - 0.0
• Tyler Gilbert - 0.0
• Penn Murfee - 0.0
• Shane Smith - 0.4

Lineup - projected for 10.5 fWAR
This group is a mixed bag. For now, at least, Luis Robert Jr. continues to man center. He’s capable of putting up an All-Star season, but is coming off a down year, and will almost certainly be traded once a stretch of health and production leavens his value a bit. Andrew Vaughn has flashed tantalizing potential, but hasn’t put it all together for a full season. Miguel Vargas is fine, but his offense won’t carry a team. Aside from them, there is plenty of youth on the roster that has the potential to take a step forward—but a step forward from what, you have to ask yourself.

• Catcher - Korey Lee - 0.2
• First base - Andrew Vaughn - 1.3
• Second Base - Lenyn Sosa - 0.8
• Shortstop  - Josh Rojas - 1.2
• Third Base - Miguel Vargas - 1.7
• Left Field - Travis Jankowski - 0.0
• Center Field - Luis Robert - 3.0
• Right Field - Mike Tauchman - 1.3
• DH - Brandon Drury - 0.2
• Fourth Outfielder - Michael A. Taylor - 0.4
• Utility Infield - Jacob Amaya - 0.1
• Backup Catcher - Matt Thaiss - 0.2
• 26th Man - Nick Maton - 0.1

Prospects likely to debut
The White Sox have several top-100 prospects in the high minors, and four of them have the potential to impact the 2025 club.

• Kyle Teel, the headline in the Crochet return, is probably the best catcher in the White Sox system. With just 28 games at Triple A, he likely benefits from some additional seasoning, but he’s a global top-30 prospect and looks the part of a solid everyday catcher.
• Colson Montgomery, a top shortstop prospect. He was just optioned and will not begin the season with the White Sox, but will almost certainly be up at some point.
• Edgar Quero is another strong catching prospect on top-100 lists. He’s ready, putting up strong offensive numbers in the high minors, and at some point in 2025, he likely joins Teel as part of the new catching tandem, replacing both Lee and Thaiss.
• Hagen Smith was drafted fifth overall in 2024. He has a good starter’s mix, is expected to start the year at Double A, and could reach the majors this season. He has the potential to be the White Sox’s best starting pitcher.
• Noah Schultz is the team's other top pitching prospect, and also has a chance to spend a chunk of the late summer on the South Side.

Recap and Wild Cards
The White Sox franchise is in a place reminiscent of the Twins in their Total System Failure years. They will almost certainly be really bad in 2025, but they should see at least a few exciting prospects make their debuts. The wild card is knowing that the Ishbia brothers expanded their minority stake in the team, with the unofficial but apparent intention to purchase the team outright whenever Jerry Reinsdorf or his family decides to sell. It’s safe to assume that the White Sox will be cellar-dwellers for the next couple of seasons, but beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. The good news for Twins fans is that while the other three teams are looking to compete, there should be plenty of easy wins against the White Sox to go around.

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[Karbo]

Yep, reminds me of some of the darker days of Twins baseball. I hope Ishbia eats sh#%t and barks at the moon!

[bean5302]

White Sox could help the Twins into a wildcard playoff spot this year. That's the only relevance they have.

[LambchoP]

Hopefully the Twins can pad their win-loss record again by playing these guys. I don't think the AL Central will be as easy as some people are thinking. 

[Muppet]

The fun thing about baseball is that anything can happen. Last year, as great as the Twins started out,  both the White Sox and the Twins were 10-20 for their last 30 games. Ok, the White Sox will not win the division in 2025. Almost anything can happen, but not that. 

[RpR]

White Sox can be a burr under the Twins saddle.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

They will undoubtedly be pretty bad but they are still good enough to beat you once in a while.  Last year, the ineptitude of the White Sox boosted the records of the other teams in the division enough to get three teams in the playoffs and a fourth close behind.  Let's hope that pattern continues.  Gotta fatten up on the poor teams so you don't have to beat the excellent ones as often. 

[IndianaTwin]

The perception among White Sox fans was that Grifol was horrible, so replacing him should help. But overall, the MLB version of the team actually looks worse than it did last year, particularly if Robert is traded. 

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

The perception among White Sox fans was that Grifol was horrible, so replacing him should help. But overall, the MLB version of the team actually looks worse than it did last year, particularly if Robert is traded. 

They'll try very hard to trade Robert, eventually IMO they will. That'll look even worse on paper. They have a great core that's coming up at key positions. They may not make a great impact this season but they'll be a force to deal with very soon. I am especially envious of them going out & landing Edgar Quero from LAA & Kyle Teal from BOS after landing one of HOU's former top prospects, Kory Lee. They value catching & they could very soon become the league's top-catching core.

[Parfigliano]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

White Sox could help the Twins into a wildcard playoff spot this year. That's the only relevance they have.

How much more help can they give over last year and still TC couldn't manage a wildcard.  TC needs to beat several someones other then the ChiSlop if they want a wildcard.

[Blyleven2011]

Chicago who , white Sox  ...

Yes we play Chicago and most likely they will have growing pains but should be better ( Should have a better record than 2024  ) , will the twins beat them single handedly again this year , that depends on our lineup producing hits and runs and not leaving men on base with no outs ...

I am not as confident as some on our hitting ,  the front office is banking on the same hitters to have better numbers  , better numbers of what , most of the hitters were around average hitters the past couple of seasons and show no promise of changing  , it would be nice if our hitters are better and can hit against better pitching and better teams ... 

We definitely took a step back last season   , did we even win a game against the Yankees  ???? , the previous year 2023  we played well against them ...

We'll have to wait and see  

[mikelink45]

It is always fascinating to read about a team which has only two players I am really familiar with.  It looks terrible, but the question is - will the prospects all appear in June and will they have the energy to make this into an interesting team.

I do not count on the Twins running all over them.  In the past we often sunk to the level of our competition.  That said I am confident that the White Sox are the one team that we can guarantee will be lower in the standings than we are.