A Bright Future: Why Twins Fans Should Stay Optimistic Despite Offseason Challenges

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, it’s either Lewis moved to 2B or it’s Castro. No way with the limited AB’s through Spring Training that Julien can prove he’s “the guy” at 2B. Lee has to show he can hit as well - they may let him learn in the job more with the bat v. Julien. Lee, to me, should be playing 3B for best use of our potential defensive tools.

Disagree on Castro at 2B. He's the 10th man that most teams would kill to have. Agree that Lee's glovework is excellent, and maybe he's best at 3B with the more athletic Lewis at 2B. I don't think you lose any way you deploy them. Lewis's issue at 3B is a hitch he has throwing. Does he maybe have the better arm? I'm not certain. 

I don't think you lose any way. It's just finding the best comfort zone for each. But you're right about Lee hitting. I think a lot of expectation was placed on Lee as a surprise pick that a lot of people expected an All Star type of player. And who knows, he might be. I think he's going to be a good glove man wherever you place him. I'm not certain he's going to be a 20 HR type of hitter. IMO he's a .280 hitter with a good .340-ish OB with 30+ DBLS and 15-18 HR per season. 

He does better than that, he goes beyond GOOD to All Star status. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, big dog said:

Steers had a very successful first year, no question. Hopefully he can repeat that in year 3. 

Moving him from the infield to the outfield MAY have played a part in his batting stats going down. If he stays in left field all year maybe that help settle his mind and get his batting average back up again. I think his bat will come around. 

[big dog]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Typically, high school draft picks make MLB between 3-4 years after drafting.
Typically, college draft picks make MLB between 2-3 years after drafting.
Top draft picks and elite prospects generally knock a year off that.

I'm not going to agree with you.

Typically?

Typically, high school draft picks don't make MLB at all. If you are going to toss out things as empirical facts, try to define what you mean.

What percentage of high schoolers drafted in the first ten picks make MLB within 4 years of being drafted? What's the answer to that question?

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Moving him from the infield to the outfield MAY have played a part in his batting stats going down. If he stays in left field all year maybe that help settle his mind and get his batting average back up again. I think his bat will come around. 

He played in 73 games at 1B, 47 at 3B, 47 in the OF, 16 at 2B in 2023. 

He played in 102 games in the OF, 63 at 1B, 7 at 2B, 1 at SS in 2024. 

He was closer to a primary position in 2024 and his stats went down. He moved around more in 2023 and his stats were better. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Disagree on Castro at 2B. He's the 10th man that most teams would kill to have. Agree that Lee's glovework is excellent, and maybe he's best at 3B with the more athletic Lewis at 2B. I don't think you lose any way you deploy them. Lewis's issue at 3B is a hitch he has throwing. Does he maybe have the better arm? I'm not certain. 

I don't think you lose any way. It's just finding the best comfort zone for each. But you're right about Lee hitting. I think a lot of expectation was placed on Lee as a surprise pick that a lot of people expected an All Star type of player. And who knows, he might be. I think he's going to be a good glove man wherever you place him. I'm not certain he's going to be a 20 HR type of hitter. IMO he's a .280 hitter with a good .340-ish OB with 30+ DBLS and 15-18 HR per season. 

He does better than that, he goes beyond GOOD to All Star status. 

Right, on Lee. The problem is what we think he could be was only shown in actuality over about 10 days and then it was a. if drift downward. He either needs to plug a spot with his glove (a needed spot) or he should play every day at AAA to develop his bat.

I’m hoping Lee/Julien/Keaschall can play 2B by sometime in May (maybe it’s Lewis & 3B is the hike to fill?) but out of the gate, I think Castro plays there 60-75% of the time for stability early. Not naming him the Team’s 2B going forward but the other 3 guys need to show they have some offensive value.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Moving him from the infield to the outfield MAY have played a part in his batting stats going down. If he stays in left field all year maybe that help settle his mind and get his batting average back up again. I think his bat will come around. 

I know we think Steer’s going to bounce back but for many others here, to be clear, he hit 20 HR - had 34 doubles - had 92 RBI in ‘24. His 1.5 WAR in a “down year” is still respectable - particularly with his second straight season playing 156 games plus.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, big dog said:

Typically?

Typically, high school draft picks don't make MLB at all. If you are going to toss out things as empirical facts, try to define what you mean.

What percentage of high schoolers drafted in the first ten picks make MLB within 4 years of being drafted? What's the answer to that question?

If a player makes MLB, that's how soon they make it. Not sure why you want to bring the guys who don't make it at all into this conversation? 

Internet searches will return various studies on the subject
https://community.fangraphs.com/time-from-draft-until-majors/
or you can just look at the current Twins' roster, etc.
Jeffers 2yrs
Miranda 6yrs
Lee 2yrs
Correa 3yrs
Lewis 5yrs
Larnach 3yrs
Buxton 3yrs
Wallner 3yrs
Vazquez 6yrs
Julien 4yrs
Castro 6yrs signed at age 16 (like Emma)

This will be Emma's 5th year in the minors, and he was signed in 2019. International signings are more difficult to predict. Regardless, Emma has certainly not moved quickly through the Twins system. Maybe you think it's common for players to burn multiple options before making their debut?

When it comes to international prospect signings, let's just look at last year's All Star Roster. 40% of them debuted faster than Emma, but if Emma doesn't have any hiccups (or the Twins are absolutely desperate), and he makes it this year, he'll be in that 40-70% range so I'm probably just being too harsh. It's not fair to call it slow, but it's certainly not fast, either.
Juan Soto a19, Yordan Alvarez a22, Jose Ramirez a20, Salvador Perez a21, Isaac Paredes a21, Willi Castro a22, Anthony Santander a22, Wilson Contrares a24, Teoscar Hernandez a23, Jurickson Profar a19, Luis Arraez a22, Elly De La Cruz a21, Heliot Ramos a22, Marcell Ozuna a22.

[jmlease1]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

When it comes to international prospect signings, let's just look at last year's All Star Roster. 40% of them debuted faster than Emma, but if Emma doesn't have any hiccups (or the Twins are absolutely desperate), and he makes it this year, he'll be in that 40-70% range so I'm probably just being too harsh. It's not fair to call it slow, but it's certainly not fast, either.
Juan Soto a19, Yordan Alvarez a22, Jose Ramirez a20, Salvador Perez a21, Isaac Paredes a21, Willi Castro a22, Anthony Santander a22, Wilson Contrares a24, Teoscar Hernandez a23, Jurickson Profar a19, Luis Arraez a22, Elly De La Cruz a21, Heliot Ramos a22, Marcell Ozuna a22.

8 of the 14 you've listed here made the MLB debut at 22 or later. Emma turns 22 at the end of Feb. Seems to be doing fine, especially for a player with injury histories. I'd be more concerned about him burning an option year if he'd done things like repeat levels on his way up. Those option years are very useful for players when they hit a bump or three acclimating to MLB (Ed Julien, are your ears burning?) but you'd hope that a high-level prospect like Emma isn't going to need to bounce up and down in 3+ seasons.

And not for nothing, but Walker Jenkins is actually moving through the system faster than Joe Mauer did at a similar age, and could easily debut in 2026 in his age 21 season, just like Mauer did. Since Mauer's easily one of the most successful draft picks and players in Twins history, it seems like a good path to be on. I might start to worry if he struggles against AA pitching this season; AA is where prospects can easily hit a wall for the first time.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

you'd hope that a high-level prospect like Emma isn't going to need to bounce up and down in 3+ seasons.

The thing is he isn't really a high level prospect. He's very, very intriguing. But his red flags prevent him from being a top level prospect. 

His strike out propensity actually means he likely WILL have some terrible stretches that get him sent down at some point. 

[big dog]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If a player makes MLB, that's how soon they make it. Not sure why you want to bring the guys who don't make it at all into this conversation? 

When it comes to international prospect signings, let's just look at last year's All Star Roster. 40% of them debuted faster than Emma, but if Emma doesn't have any hiccups (or the Twins are absolutely desperate), and he makes it this year, he'll be in that 40-70% range so I'm probably just being too harsh. It's not fair to call it slow, but it's certainly not fast, either.
Juan Soto a19, Yordan Alvarez a22, Jose Ramirez a20, Salvador Perez a21, Isaac Paredes a21, Willi Castro a22, Anthony Santander a22, Wilson Contrares a24, Teoscar Hernandez a23, Jurickson Profar a19, Luis Arraez a22, Elly De La Cruz a21, Heliot Ramos a22, Marcell Ozuna a22.

Then clarify your terms. Of the MLB draft picks who make the majors...then define your criteria.

You can cherry pick data from current Twins; is that "typical"? I don't know that comparisons to All-Stars in one year are relevant, but if it is, use that as your criteria. Nothing about that seems typical. Is an All-Star a great player, a mediocre player having a great year, a mediocre player having the best year of anyone on his team and someone had to be picked?

If you are going to criticize people's opinions using data, don't just throw out some numerical thing that's based on who knows what and claim it's a real finding, i.e. it's typical.

How many of the top ten draft picks in the last ten years where high school picks, and how long did it take each of them to reach the majors? That would help us give a sense of what might be typical for evaluating our top picks.

 

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, big dog said:

...If you are going to criticize people's opinions using data, don't just throw out some numerical thing that's based on who knows what and claim it's a real finding, i.e. it's typical....

Where's your data, bud? Oh... don't have any. Nevermind.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

8 of the 14 you've listed here made the MLB debut at 22 or later. Emma turns 22 at the end of Feb. Seems to be doing fine, especially for a player with injury histories. I'd be more concerned about him burning an option year if he'd done things like repeat levels on his way up. Those option years are very useful for players when they hit a bump or three acclimating to MLB (Ed Julien, are your ears burning?) but you'd hope that a high-level prospect like Emma isn't going to need to bounce up and down in 3+ seasons.

And not for nothing, but Walker Jenkins is actually moving through the system faster than Joe Mauer did at a similar age, and could easily debut in 2026 in his age 21 season, just like Mauer did. Since Mauer's easily one of the most successful draft picks and players in Twins history, it seems like a good path to be on. I might start to worry if he struggles against AA pitching this season; AA is where prospects can easily hit a wall for the first time.

Did I not state that? Yes. Yes I did.

[big dog]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Where's your data, bud? Oh... don't have any. Nevermind.

Oh for heavens sake. You are the one making a claim. I’m trying to get you to back up your claim. I shouldn’t have to disprove whatever foolishness someone wants to post by looking for counter evidence. You won’t even clarify what you are claiming, much less support it.

Never mind.