The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2025: Part 1 (20-16)

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is false. Teams routinely sell off expensive veterans with little team control when they aren't trying to win in the near-term. Value to this team specifically is related to WHEN they are trying to build their championship caliber team. 

And, like I said before, players on teams who aren't trying to win's value is equal to their trade value.

But we were talking about the Twins who at least claim they're trying to win. So, in that case, the odds don't change their relative value to the team.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

And, like I said before, players on teams who aren't trying to win's value is equal to their trade value.

And the value of prospects on teams who are trying to win NOW is equal to their trade value.

I wish I knew when the Twins were going to try to win. It would make an exercise like this make so much more sense. They can't seem to make up their mind about trying to win now or win later.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And the value of prospects on teams who are trying to win NOW is equal to their trade value.

I wish I knew when the Twins were going to try to win. It would make an exercise like this make so much more sense. They can't seem to make up their mind about trying to win now or win later.

Hey, they say they're trying to win! And I believe they're trying to win the central. Well, hoping they're good enough to win the central is probably the right way to say that.

[Nick Nelson]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Starting pitchers are the scarcest commodity in MLB. Objectively bad starting pitchers are getting $12-$15M a season in free agency. Mediocre bats with below average defense are freely available every offseason.

I get that. Are we convinced SWR is a major-league starting pitcher long-term? I'm not. He's been a below-average pitcher so far in the majors and hasn't shown much propensity to be more than that. Julien and Miranda have been above-average hitters and have shown flashes of unique and special ability. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Hey, they say they're trying to win! And I believe they're trying to win the central. Well, hoping they're good enough to win the central is probably the right way to say that.

Talk is cheap.

6 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Julien and Miranda have been above-average hitters and have shown flashes of unique and special ability. 

Julien shouldn't be on the 26-man roster to start the season and Miranda has shown so much unique and special ability that he's the one guy the GM is trying to replace in free agency.

[bean5302]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I would not use that analogy because that wasn't the point I was making in that post. Or any of the subsequent posts. My point is that there's 2 types of values. Value to the team's ability to win and trade value...

Was just trying to find a way to give your position a little credibility. The Twins can acquire another team's controlled pre-arb/arb players any time they want regardless of whether or not the player likes it or utterly despises the Twins. The Twins' projections, player values, etc all depend on other teams and players. You cannot even get the starting value to measure anything in the Twins' organization without considering market value to other organizations, period.

Calling a multi-million dollar organization with a long standing high quality track record of accuracy cited by the largest sources of MLB publishing in the biz a fun little tool is ridiculous.

[D.C Twins]

Raya = Bullpen

Correa = too much cost for self-determined financially strapped team to form a balanced team. Feet will get worse not better with age. Great guy but trade him if possible. 

[Nick Nelson]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Julien shouldn't be on the 26-man roster to start the season and Miranda has shown so much unique and special ability that he's the one guy the GM is trying to replace in free agency.

Part of what I'm attempting to do with these rankings is provide a timely snapshot without overreacting to short-term trends. We're looking for a more comprehensive picture than how things take shape on Opening Day of next year, or what happened in the second half of last year. I expect both Julien and Miranda to be bigger parts of the team going forward than SWR. I could very well be wrong of course! But their overall track records are significantly more impressive.

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I get that. Are we convinced SWR is a major-league starting pitcher long-term? I'm not. He's been a below-average pitcher so far in the majors and hasn't shown much propensity to be more than that. Julien and Miranda have been above-average hitters and have shown flashes of unique and special ability. 

I agree with you on SWR. Lots of red flags on him. The breakdown from BTV is:
36.3 AFV (about 4 WAR over the next 6 years)
17.1 MM Expected Salary
FGDC/Steamer expect a 4.66 ERA next year.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I expect both Julien and Miranda to be bigger parts of the team going forward than SWR. I could very well be wrong of course! But their overall track records are significantly more impressive.

Julien's value is all about 2025-26. He's in the prime of his career and he looked bad last season. Not enough bat or glove to make the roster. 

Raya is a "going forward" kind of player. Miranda and Julien are "now or never".

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Was just trying to find a way to give your position a little credibility. The Twins can acquire another team's controlled pre-arb/arb players any time they want regardless of whether or not the player likes it or utterly despises the Twins. The Twins' projections, player values, etc all depend on other teams and players. You cannot even get the starting value to measure anything in the Twins' organization without considering market value to other organizations, period.

Calling a multi-million dollar organization with a long standing high quality track record of accuracy cited by the largest sources of MLB publishing in the biz a fun little tool is ridiculous.

My position has plenty of credibility, I don't need your help. Thanks, though. I never said the values aren't related. Things can be related without being the same. In fact, I very much said they are related and it's the front offices job to be able to make decisions based on that relation and know when the lines cross. And, no, the Twins can't acquire another team's controlled players any time they want because the other team gets a say. The player may not, but the other team does. And how that team values its player matters. And how that team values its player may be different than how the trade market values that player. Because players value is different to each team based on numerous factors. Those values are related, but not the same. Thank you for helping prove my point.

No MLB team is going on BTV to figure out if they're making a good trade or not. I provided an example for Correa's trade value using your own belief about the Nats being the only team who'd want him. That example alone shows the shortcomings with a site like BTV. It can't take into account what the actual market is for a player. It's a fun little tool. It does the same thing multiple other sites do in giving you a projection of a player's future performance compared to their contract/team control. Fangraphs does the same thing. It's also nothing more than a fun little tool.

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Julien's value is all about 2025-26. He's in the prime of his career and he looked bad last season. Not enough bat or glove to make the roster. 

Raya is a "going forward" kind of player. Miranda and Julien are "now or never".

Julien's potential and his spot on the roster (or lack of spot) is going to be the easiest call to make. His issues stem from not swinging the bat. All they have to do is see if he's swinging or if he's watching, and we will know before the season starts if there is hope for him, or if he's a lost cause. 

His unique malady will make this really easy.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Julien's potential and his spot on the roster (or lack of spot) is going to be the easiest call to make. His issues stem from not swinging the bat. All they have to do is see if he's swinging or if he's watching, and we will know before the season starts if there is hope for him, or if he's a lost cause. 

His unique malady will make this really easy.

No, as @chpettit19 pointed out elsewhere, Julien can't hit breaking balls. He got away with not swinging at them in the minors but they figured him out in the big leagues.

[Linus]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, as @chpettit19 pointed out elsewhere, Julien can't hit breaking balls. He got away with not swinging at them in the minors but they figured him out in the big leagues.

Julien had a good couple of months his rookie year when the league had never seen him and his babip was 373.  Last year he was really bad for the entire year.  I know which results I’m going to put stock in.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

This article's premise is, what are the Twins' current player values.  If Julien indeed fixes his problems (see, e.g., Matt Wallner), then I expect next year's article will be different.  Today however, absent any evidence Julien has fixed last year's hitting holes (obvious to every MLB club), and become defensively adept and versatile, not just a 2B, then he has negligible trade value.  Hope isn't a strategy.

We obviously disagree on Julien's value, which is just fine.  However, "IF Julien indeed fixes his problems" you are expecting next year's list to be different.  Certainly true.  He could very well rocket quite a ways up the list (development is a marathon, not a sprint) -- perhaps from 20th to the top ten.   The premise of my point was that Julien's problems as manifest so far in his career aren't that different than those of Brooks Lee (who hasn't hit anything at all) and Royce Lewis (who seemed to have forgotten how to hit at the end of the year).  Even though they also had issues, we seem to collectively give them a free pass.  Taking your premise that hope isn't a strategy, does that put the two of them off the list as well?

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't get Correa being rated at #16 at all. imo he should be at #1. We have 120mil invested in him for the next 4 years and if he doesn't perform at that level the team can't recover from that. Yes it would sting if we don't hit on Jenkins, but that wouldn't limit the team like a Correa failure would. That is a very poor placement. 

[Nick Nelson]

50 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Julien's potential and his spot on the roster (or lack of spot) is going to be the easiest call to make. His issues stem from not swinging the bat. All they have to do is see if he's swinging or if he's watching, and we will know before the season starts if there is hope for him, or if he's a lost cause. 

His unique malady will make this really easy.

Is it that simple, though? One could argue that not swinging the bat is actually key to what makes him successful. In 2024, Julien swung more often than in 2023 -- both inside the zone and outside the zone -- and he was much worse. 

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, as @chpettit19 pointed out elsewhere, Julien can't hit breaking balls. He got away with not swinging at them in the minors but they figured him out in the big leagues.

Why are we acting like this is some ultra-rare affliction for young hitters, or that it cannot be overcome? Did we not just watch what happened to Trevor Larnach this past season? Players in their mid-20s develop. Julien has succeeded offensively everywhere prior to last year. I don't understand the eagerness to write him off. 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Why are we acting like this is some ultra-rare affliction for young hitters, or that it cannot be overcome? Did we not just watch what happened to Trevor Larnach this past season? Players in their mid-20s develop. Julien has succeeded offensively everywhere prior to last year. I don't understand the eagerness to write him off. 

He's going to burn a half season and his last option making the adjustments, if he can. He's also working his way down the defensive spectrum toward 1B which means he has to really hit to contribute. 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree Julien should be far removed from this list. '24 wasn't just a sophomore slump, it was the league having the book on his style of hitting. So he has to reinvent himself to be less of an HR hitter which doesn't    profile at 1B or like Sano not adjusting at all. Either way, he loses. So far Raya although he has some potential hasn't proved anything yet. It's a shame Miranda isn't higher, if he had been at 1B he'd have been much higher. I'd place SWR & Correa higher but it's hard to put into perspective when you don't see who you placed ahead of them.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Would he? SWR posted a 99 ERA+ in 130 innings with a below-average strikeout rate. Benefited from some favorable periphs. His track record prior to last year was rough. Commenters seem quite a bit higher on him than I am.

He's also really young, just 24 in 2025. There's more room for upside with SWR than there is for Miranda or Julien just due to age.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Julien. Hitting went south, will he recover? Not a 2B, black hole. Call me pessimistic.

SWR spot in the rank I think is fair.

I probably would have left Raya out as well. He's done and proven nothing to warrant tying our wagon to him. 

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I get that. Are we convinced SWR is a major-league starting pitcher long-term? I'm not. He's been a below-average pitcher so far in the majors and hasn't shown much propensity to be more than that. Julien and Miranda have been above-average hitters and have shown flashes of unique and special ability. 

The book is still out on Simeon but he had a decent year in 2024. I wondered if Paddack, Woods Richardson, and a prospect like Billy Amick (maybe add Kala'i Rosario) could bring back Dylan Cease from San Diego? Earlier in the offseason I wondered whether a SWR for Jeferson Quero deal would work? I'm not down on Simeon at all but really like David Festa and also believe that Zebby Matthews will make the adjustments and tweak his pitches to be a very effective #4-5 starting pitcher.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

We obviously disagree on Julien's value, which is just fine.  However, "IF Julien indeed fixes his problems" you are expecting next year's list to be different.  Certainly true.  He could very well rocket quite a ways up the list (development is a marathon, not a sprint) -- perhaps from 20th to the top ten.   The premise of my point was that Julien's problems as manifest so far in his career aren't that different than those of Brooks Lee (who hasn't hit anything at all) and Royce Lewis (who seemed to have forgotten how to hit at the end of the year).  Even though they also had issues, we seem to collectively give them a free pass.  Taking your premise that hope isn't a strategy, does that put the two of them off the list as well?

 

Not yet.  Julien has over 600 ABs and regressed to 70-something OPS+ from the previous season.  Lewis has a higher WAR over fewer ABs, his OPS+ regression left him still above league average.  Lewis has been regarded as one of the top prospects in MLB since he signed; Julien was an over-achiever until, unfortunately, one could predict almost exactly the pitch sequence pitchers would use to strike him out.  No sane GM would regard Lewis in the same tier as Julien (although admittedly there are some insane GMs out there).  Lee hasn't had enough MLB exposure to form any conclusions.  The differentiator for me between Julien, Lee and Lewis is that Julien hasn't shown the ability to learn from his mistakes despite far more of them than Lewis and Lee, and indeed appears so locked into his unsuccessful plate approach that he appears unteachable.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's a decent start for a list like this. I don't think Correa has that much positive value after two injured seasons. I don't think Julien has that much positive value after a season where he wasn't worth a roster spot.

Correa played 86 games and had 3.7 WAR in ‘24. I understand the frustration with injuries but he played decent Shortstop & hit .310 & was on the All-star Team…….stating he doesn’t have much positive value seems not to be very logical. Julien is a completely different story relative to value as he hit .199 and had a -.2 WAR ……also, struck out looking more than anyone else in baseball. Then there’s his defense.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Not yet.  Julien has over 600 ABs and regressed to 70-something OPS+ from the previous season.  Lewis has a higher WAR over fewer ABs, his OPS+ regression left him still above league average.  Lewis has been regarded as one of the top prospects in MLB since he signed; Julien was an over-achiever until, unfortunately, one could predict almost exactly the pitch sequence pitchers would use to strike him out.  No sane GM would regard Lewis in the same tier as Julien (although admittedly there are some insane GMs out there).  Lee hasn't had enough MLB exposure to form any conclusions.  The differentiator for me between Julien, Lee and Lewis is that Julien hasn't shown the ability to learn from his mistakes despite far more of them than Lewis and Lee, and indeed appears so locked into his unsuccessful plate approach that he appears unteachable.

Comparing the stat line of Lewis and Julien over the last two months of the season yields a much closer comparison.  Neither of them were hitting a lick and Brooks Lee has yet to demonstrate that he can hit ANY pitches, let alone Major League breaking pitches.  My point here isn’t to demean Lewis or Lee.  My point is that you are being very dismissive of a player who came up and did very well.  Now it’s time to adjust.  Let him do that.  This “unteachable” player has already demonstrated that he could get serious about his fielding and has had some results to show for it.  It seems unlikely that he will be so “unteachable” with regard to hitting that he won’t be able to develop just like players like Larnach and Wallner (and for that matter Buxton a few years ago) didn’t develop.  Oh wait a minute. . . they did.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Correa played 86 games and had 3.7 WAR in ‘24. I understand the frustration with injuries but he played decent Shortstop & hit .310 & was on the All-star Team…….stating he doesn’t have much positive value seems not to be very logical.

Sorry, net positive value. He's worth what he's paid but there's no bonus value on top of that.

[Brandon]

The Twins are clearly in a 3 possibly 4 year window for contention with Buxton and Correa and Lopez under long term contracts and in prime playing years.  We have Ober and Ryan for three more years Jax and Duran for 3 or 4 … I would add more weight to the value of these rankings if the goal is for the player to contribute to playoff pushes.  
 

Also I want to see the whole list before I find fault with these rankings.  Nick usually does a good job on these and I usually have to nitpick so I am just waiting to see the final list.

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Comparing the stat line of Lewis and Julien over the last two months of the season yields a much closer comparison.  Neither of them were hitting a lick and Brooks Lee has yet to demonstrate that he can hit ANY pitches, let alone Major League breaking pitches.  My point here isn’t to demean Lewis or Lee.  My point is that you are being very dismissive of a player who came up and did very well.  Now it’s time to adjust.  Let him do that.  This “unteachable” player has already demonstrated that he could get serious about his fielding and has had some results to show for it.  It seems unlikely that he will be so “unteachable” with regard to hitting that he won’t be able to develop just like players like Larnach and Wallner (and for that matter Buxton a few years ago) didn’t develop.  Oh wait a minute. . . they did.

I respect your view of Julien, but were I the Twins GM and you the GM of another team, we'd be talking trade because my view would be I could get something for nothing.  I thought Julien's 2023 season was remarkable.  However, his regression at the plate in 2024 stunned me.  Mind you, this was the same guy that put in hours of overtime becoming a very respectable 2B.  And yet despite what undoubtedly were countless hitting sequence videos, Julien kept K-ing on breaking balls down and in.  It was laughable:  pitch 1:  breaking ball down and in, swinging or called strike.  Pitch 2: fastball away.  Pitch 3: breaking ball, outside half, called strike.  Pitch 4:  fastball up.  Pitch 5:  breaking ball down and in, swinging strike three.  This went on virtually all of 2024.  Surely Twins hitting coaches were showing Eddie how he was being attacked, all with no results whatsoever.  Wallner is an excellent comparison.  First three weeks of 2024 were brutal.  After a couple months at AAA he returns with an approach that results in one of the highest hard-hit rates in MLB.  All of this happened inside a season.  Similarly, Buxton went back to hitting school and as soon as he dumped the leg-kick results improved.  Surely, Julien's received as much coaching about his offense as his defense and yet the former greatly lags the latter.  Great clubhouse guy, but I'm not confident he has any more tricks left in his hitting bag and certainly doesn't rate among the Twins' top 20 assets anymore.

What will you give me for Julien in a straight-up 1-1 trade?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Since I don’t own a team that’s a tough question.  Assuming we’re both dealing at least a little from slight surplus areas of our roster and that I need an infielder,  I would offer up a #4/5 starter or a young outfielder or possibly even a catcher.  

If we really want a catcher, I would try to package Julien with Paddack.  It won’t get you an all star, but it might get you someone that could split time with Jeffers and enable you to sell Vasquez to the best salary relief you can find.