The Darnold Decision

[TheLeviathan]

13 hours ago, RpR said:

As the announcers said last night, where ever Darnold ends up, it will be for less money now.

Unless they fix the offense front line, who ever is quaterback had better learn to scramble , a Lot.

The next QB will hopefully not think 7 second drop backs are doable in the NFL.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6060488/2025/01/14/vikings-playoffs-loss-sam-darnold-kevin-oconnell/

KOC literally told Darnold who to look for on the play, Addison had an easy touchdown, and he even told him the fail safe to throw it away.

Darnold did the hokey pokey and took another sack.

[TheLeviathan]

I was listening to Purple Daily and I thought Zulgad made an interesting statement that might have gotten lost in this season and the catastrophic ending:

We had a lot of delay of games or near penalties this year for the clock running down before the play got off.  It sounds like there was some confirmation, due to media having access to KOC/Darnold communication, that those are happening because KOC was doing the same thing with Darnold that we saw him do with Dobbs in that Atlanta game.  The insinuation was that this had been a year long feature that explains that tendency.

Could be he's speculating, but that's not the way he came off.  More of a "inside media circles" type of comment.  FWIW.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I was listening to Purple Daily and I thought Zulgad made an interesting statement that might have gotten lost in this season and the catastrophic ending:

We had a lot of delay of games or near penalties this year for the clock running down before the play got off.  It sounds like there was some confirmation, due to media having access to KOC/Darnold communication, that those are happening because KOC was doing the same thing with Darnold that we saw him do with Dobbs in that Atlanta game.  The insinuation was that this had been a year long feature that explains that tendency.

Could be he's speculating, but that's not the way he came off.  More of a "inside media circles" type of comment.  FWIW.

The insinuation being that KOC had to hold Darnold's hand through the play calls?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The insinuation being that KOC had to hold Darnold's hand through the play calls?

That seems bad

[TheLeviathan]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The insinuation being that KOC had to hold Darnold's hand through the play calls?

Yup.  That the the situation was much closer to Dobbs than we thought.  It definitely was a regular occurence to run the clock down.  The quote in The Athletic shows KOC laying out the play pretty basically too.

It's also possible that we would see much the same with McCarthy because it's just what KOC does.  Or that he's just a long winded play caller that takes every second he has.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 1/14/2025 at 7:10 PM, RpR said:

As the announcers said last night, where ever Darnold ends up, it will be for less money now.

Unless they fix the offense front line, who ever is quaterback had better learn to scramble , a Lot.

Wasn't the average sack 4.7 seconds? Is there a line in football that holds up that long?

[TwinsDr2021]

If people watched this Vikings season from start to finish the last two weeks it should not have came to much of a surprise. (Didn't to me, made over 1K betting pie in the sky friends that bought into this team)

They had 14 wins, 3 against playoff teams (Texans and Packers), so basically went 3 - 3 against playoff teams.

Got 6 wins against teams drafting in the top 10 and the other 5 wins against the non-playoff teams.

They played a 3 place schedule and the NFC West and AFC South and took advantage of this big time, I get you play the teams on the schedule and Kudos for them for doing that. But watching the games it was fairly obvious this team wasn't anywhere near as good as the top teams in the league.

Compare that to the Lions who blew out the teams drafting at the top of the draft, Titans, Jags, Colts, Cowboys,

The Chiefs kind of did what the Vikings did (winning relatively close games) so don't be surprised of an upset this week, the big difference Mahomes won't be taking 9 sacks and turning the ball over twice.

Viking Wins

#1 pick – by 10

#3 pick – blow out

#5 pick – by 5

#7 pick – by 6

#10(Twice) – by 3 (OT), by 18

#11 pick – by 6

#14 pick – by 8

#15 pick – blow out

#16 pick – by 1

#18 – by 3

Texans

Packers – 2

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If people watched this Vikings season from start to finish the last two weeks it should not have came to much of a surprise. (Didn't to me, made over 1K betting pie in the sky friends that bought into this team)

They had 14 wins, 3 against playoff teams (Texans and Packers), so basically went 3 - 3 against playoff teams.

Got 6 wins against teams drafting in the top 10 and the other 5 wins against the non-playoff teams.

They played a 3 place schedule and the NFC West and AFC South and took advantage of this big time, I get you play the teams on the schedule and Kudos for them for doing that. But watching the games it was fairly obvious this team wasn't anywhere near as good as the top teams in the league.

Compare that to the Lions who blew out the teams drafting at the top of the draft, Titans, Jags, Colts, Cowboys,

The Chiefs kind of did what the Vikings did (winning relatively close games) so don't be surprised of an upset this week, the big difference Mahomes won't be taking 9 sacks and turning the ball over twice.

Viking Wins

#1 pick – by 10

#3 pick – blow out

#5 pick – by 5

#7 pick – by 6

#10(Twice) – by 3 (OT), by 18

#11 pick – by 6

#14 pick – by 8

#15 pick – blow out

#16 pick – by 1

#18 – by 3

Texans

Packers – 2

Yeah, I'm much more of a casual football fan, but I looked at the schedule after their bye and said that they should win every game until they played Green Bay (and that was a home game). Because their weaknesses weren't glaring, they ended up being in the second tier (below elite) but still winning a surprising 14 games and just missing the payoff of having home field in the playoffs. 

Looking forward, it would appear that they will have the basis for a good offense if they have a decent QB, but I wonder if the defense might take a step or two back.

[gunnarthor]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If people watched this Vikings season from start to finish the last two weeks it should not have came to much of a surprise. (Didn't to me, made over 1K betting pie in the sky friends that bought into this team)

They had 14 wins, 3 against playoff teams (Texans and Packers), so basically went 3 - 3 against playoff teams.

Got 6 wins against teams drafting in the top 10 and the other 5 wins against the non-playoff teams.

They played a 3 place schedule and the NFC West and AFC South and took advantage of this big time, I get you play the teams on the schedule and Kudos for them for doing that. But watching the games it was fairly obvious this team wasn't anywhere near as good as the top teams in the league.

Compare that to the Lions who blew out the teams drafting at the top of the draft, Titans, Jags, Colts, Cowboys,

The Chiefs kind of did what the Vikings did (winning relatively close games) so don't be surprised of an upset this week, the big difference Mahomes won't be taking 9 sacks and turning the ball over twice.

Viking Wins

#1 pick – by 10

#3 pick – blow out

#5 pick – by 5

#7 pick – by 6

#10(Twice) – by 3 (OT), by 18

#11 pick – by 6

#14 pick – by 8

#15 pick – blow out

#16 pick – by 1

#18 – by 3

Texans

Packers – 2

It's always fun reading the "i knew it along" posts after the results come out.

The big difference between the 3rd place schedule and 1st place schedule was Lions got Bills, Bucs, Cowboys and we got Falcons, Giants, Jets. The Lions went 1-2 against those three while we went 3-0 against our three.

Even if you assume the Vikings would have gone 1-2 against those three, we would still have been 12-5 and had the 5th seed. The reality is most teams have skewed records against playoff teams. Here's the NFC playoff teams record against other playoff teams

Detroit 5-2
Philly 5-2
Rams 2-3
Bucs 4-3
Vikings 3-3
Commanders 1-4
Packers 3-5

I don't really know or care why you think running up the score against cruddy teams is relevant but, whatever. Our +100 point differentiable was 5th in the conference and 9th in the league. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

It's always fun reading the "i knew it along" posts after the results come out.

The big difference between the 3rd place schedule and 1st place schedule was Lions got Bills, Bucs, Cowboys and we got Falcons, Giants, Jets. The Lions went 1-2 against those three while we went 3-0 against our three.

Even if you assume the Vikings would have gone 1-2 against those three, we would still have been 12-5 and had the 5th seed. The reality is most teams have skewed records against playoff teams. Here's the NFC playoff teams record against other playoff teams

Detroit 5-2
Philly 5-2
Rams 2-3
Bucs 4-3
Vikings 3-3
Commanders 1-4
Packers 3-5

I don't really know or care why you think running up the score against cruddy teams is relevant but, whatever. Our +100 point differentiable was 5th in the conference and 9th in the league. 

That is super funny, having the ability to run up the score on the dreds of the league and barely being able to win the game is the big difference. It wasn't like the Vikings shut it down against these bad teams and coasted.

And FYI I am a huge Viking fan actually the whole NFL, but I have lived though the Vikings for the last 50 plus years and I know to look deeper into how things are going before buying into them making noise in the playoffs. I always think (and hope) hey, with a few breaks here and there maybe they can do some damage (just like 2 years ago, they record was a mirage more than reality. But heck yes I enjoyed the season.

Finally going into the Rams game, I would argue the Rams had the best coach, best QB, best RB, best WR (JJ is amazing but he can't do some of things Puka can do) , and the best OL. Defense was a toss up. Those are games you generally don't win.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That is super funny, having the ability to run up the score on the dreds of the league and barely being able to win the game is the big difference. It wasn't like the Vikings shut it down against these bad teams and coasted.

And FYI I am a huge Viking fan actually the whole NFL, but I have lived though the Vikings for the last 50 plus years and I know to look deeper into how things are going before buying into them making noise in the playoffs. I always think (and hope) hey, with a few breaks here and there maybe they can do some damage (just like 2 years ago, they record was a mirage more than reality. But heck yes I enjoyed the season.

Finally going into the Rams game, I would argue the Rams had the best coach, best QB, best RB, best WR (JJ is amazing but he can't do some of things Puka can do) , and the best OL. Defense was a toss up. Those are games you generally don't win.

You probably could've had a good last paragraph, but putting Puka over JJ really discredits the rest you have to say.  

I've said all season, the NFL rarely has blowouts and that measure is an antiquated way of viewing the game.  The Bills, as good as they look now, have had some really rough stretches.  Some of the Ravens losses are preposterous.  The Eagles looked terrible early.  Teams go through stretches.

I think this team played over their head.  I'm on the record having never taken them seriously as a Super Bowl contender, but the reason here doesn't hold for me.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

You probably could've had a good last paragraph, but putting Puka over JJ really discredits the rest you have to say.  

I think this team played over their head.  I'm on the record having never taken them seriously as a Super Bowl contender, but the reason here doesn't hold for me.

My ranking of top WR's goes Chase, Puka, JJ, St. Brown and Lamb, I am not going to argue that my list is correct because all these guys are amazing. I just like a WR that on 4th and short you know absolutely with out a doubt is going to get open and when you do a WR screen I think Chase and Puka are the best at doing that, JJ can do things further down the field that nobody else in the league can do.

This year

Player A - average 7.18 catches , 90 yards and .27 TD's per game and 42 yards rushing an a TD on the year

Player B - averaged 6.06 catches, 90.18 yards and .59 TD's per game and 3 yards rushing. on the year

Career

Player A - average 6.57 catches, 88.42 yards, .32 TD's per game and 135 yards rushing and a TD total.

Player B - average 6.42 catches, 96.52 yards, .52 TD's per game and 31 yards rushing and a TD total.

IMO, those stats are close enough that somebody could say either is better., depending on the type of WR you like. A-Puka, B- JJ

So after all is said and done we agree this team was never to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender, but just for different reasons?

[TheLeviathan]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

 

So after all is said and done we agree this team was never to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender, but just for different reasons?

Yes, I took them seriously as a good team, but not at the same level as Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Philly, and KC.  But I would never use blow outs or bad losses to make that determination.  If I did, the list of teams that are actually Super Bowl contenders is only Detroit.

If my criteria eliminates all but one team, then my criteria is probably broken.

[gunnarthor]

I don't even know which thread to put this in but I checked and apparently the #1 pick in next years draft is supposed to be Arch Manning. I don't follow college football that much but I assume there are a lot of owners who would love to have a Manning at QB, especially since this draft is a bit shallow at QB.

I'm not sure if this would make a tag and trade for Darnold more likely - get a bridge QB now - or hurt - don't want to win more than 3 games.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't even know which thread to put this in but I checked and apparently the #1 pick in next years draft is supposed to be Arch Manning. I don't follow college football that much but I assume there are a lot of owners who would love to have a Manning at QB, especially since this draft is a bit shallow at QB.

I'm not sure if this would make a tag and trade for Darnold more likely - get a bridge QB now - or hurt - don't want to win more than 3 games.

They're really going to have to work to figure out if a tag will scare away trade interest.  If it doesn't, and you can get something, it's worth it.  But it's a dicey gamble.

[DocBauer]

Win probability for the Vikings in 2024 was around 7.5. I never quite bought in to that. There were questions about depth, and MOSTLY about QB. And we can blame Darnold all we want to, but OL play had a major impact in how things ended.

But to simply ignore what Darnold did this season is a dismissal of his talent, and what KOC has done as a coach building a system and a team. Its also why I was surprised just how good this season was with questions at QB, the OL, and a sudden rebuild at CB due to injury and death.

I've stated in the preseason where holes were, and have repeatedly stated the same. FA and the next 2 drafts have the potential to fill those holes and actually make this a team who could be a legitimate SB contender. 

You play who you play. And from year to year, you never take any team for granted. The Vikings had a great season and rose above expectations despite some holes, and some quick fixes by the FO.

The next chapter is McCarthy leading the team and FA $ and the draft fixing the holes in the team to rise to another level. And I think it's time to let go a fun and expired season and get ready for 2025 and beyond. 

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

They're really going to have to work to figure out if a tag will scare away trade interest.  If it doesn't, and you can get something, it's worth it.  But it's a dicey gamble.

I don't think they can take that gamble. He's probably the top free agent QB available, but unlike most years, it appears there will be others who actually can start. Wilson for sure, plus Rodgers, Cousins and Carr most likely. What do those guys get? 20M max on a 1-2 year deal? So does a team pay Darnold 41M instead of picking one of those guys for half the price? They'd have to view Darnold as a long term answer or a short term championship run answer, and I'm not sure any team would.

I think the Vikings went from lotto ticket to parking ticket real fast with him.

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think they can take that gamble. He's probably the top free agent QB available, but unlike most years, it appears there will be others who actually can start. Wilson for sure, plus Rodgers, Cousins and Carr most likely. What do those guys get? 20M max on a 1-2 year deal? So does a team pay Darnold 41M instead of picking one of those guys for half the price? They'd have to view Darnold as a long term answer or a short term championship run answer, and I'm not sure any team would.

I think the Vikings went from lotto ticket to parking ticket real fast with him.

I tend to agree. I remain ever so slightly hopeful though. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think they can take that gamble. He's probably the top free agent QB available, but unlike most years, it appears there will be others who actually can start. Wilson for sure, plus Rodgers, Cousins and Carr most likely. What do those guys get? 20M max on a 1-2 year deal? So does a team pay Darnold 41M instead of picking one of those guys for half the price? They'd have to view Darnold as a long term answer or a short term championship run answer, and I'm not sure any team would.

I think the Vikings went from lotto ticket to parking ticket real fast with him.

I think I'm with you, but they may be able to source some information from the Giants/Steelers/Titans/Saints/Raiders/Browns that they're willing to acquire him at the tag price.

Given our dire need for picks, even getting a 3rd for him might be worth the risk if you think the interest is there.

[nicksaviking]

I will say that if news breaks that the Vikings tagged him, there better be follow up news that they have a trade in place within the hour. They can't sweat this out for weeks or months.

I don't want the Vikings to miss out on early free agency because they're unsure how much cap space they'll have.

[gunnarthor]

ESPN article on it. Doesn't really say much. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/43507710/nfl-vikings-jj-mccarthy-sam-darnold-daniel-jones-qb

[Vanimal46]

I don’t know all of the fine print, but there’s a certain type of franchise tag, I believe it’s a “non-exclusive” tag, to keep Darnold’s rights while they negotiate a trade partner. KC did that with their former CB Sneed who was traded to the Titans. And Carolina did that with Brian Burns who was traded to the Giants. That’s the route I’d take. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t know all of the fine print, but there’s a certain type of franchise tag, I believe it’s a “non-exclusive” tag, to keep Darnold’s rights while they negotiate a trade partner. KC did that with their former CB Sneed who was traded to the Titans. And Carolina did that with Brian Burns who was traded to the Giants. That’s the route I’d take. 

That would be great, but I'm pretty sure the team signing the non-exlcusive tagged player has to give up two 1st round picks.

If a team is willing to give up two 1sts for Darnold the Vikings would be like Scrooge McDuck diving into their silo of coins. Ah, all the dreams we had prior to Week 18.......

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That would be great, but I'm pretty sure the team signing the non-exlcusive tagged player has to give up two 1st round picks.

If a team is willing to give up two 1sts for Darnold the Vikings would be like Scrooge McDuck diving into their silo of coins. Ah, all the dreams we had prior to Week 18.......

Maybe I’m thinking of a different tag, I don’t claim to be an expert. But Sneed was traded for a 2025 3rd and pick swaps in the 2024 draft. Burns was traded for the #39 overall pick last draft and swap of 5th rounders. 

That’s about what I’d expect from a Darnold tag and trade. Darnold to the Raiders for their 2nd or 3rd round pick and swap 5th round picks. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Maybe I’m thinking of a different tag, I don’t claim to be an expert. But Sneed was traded for a 2025 3rd and pick swaps in the 2024 draft. Burns was traded for the #39 overall pick last draft and swap of 5th rounders. 

That’s about what I’d expect from a Darnold tag and trade. Darnold to the Raiders for their 2nd or 3rd round pick and swap 5th round picks. 

My understanding is that there are three tags: Transition, Exclusive, and Non-Exclusive.  Exclusive means you pretty much tag them for a top 5 salary and it's over.  Non-exclusive allows them to go out and seek other offers, but at the cost of 2 first round picks.  No player under that tag has signed a deal since Joey Galloway in 2000.  In other words - that ain't happening for Darnold.  Transition has no draft compensation, but teams can match a deal.

The other downside is that the player will be on your cap if you put that tag on them, limiting your cap space.  (But there are ways around that)

I would bet they tag Darnold and end up getting something like a 3rd and a 4th for him.

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Maybe I’m thinking of a different tag, I don’t claim to be an expert. But Sneed was traded for a 2025 3rd and pick swaps in the 2024 draft. Burns was traded for the #39 overall pick last draft and swap of 5th rounders. 

That’s about what I’d expect from a Darnold tag and trade. Darnold to the Raiders for their 2nd or 3rd round pick and swap 5th round picks. 

It looks like Sneed and Burns both got the exclusive tag and then their teams traded them. This link explains the different tags and toward the bottom it shows who go the exclusive tags and who go the non-exclusive tags (just one guy, Kyle Duggar)

https://operations.nfl.com/updates/the-players/2024-franchise-and-transition-players-named/

But that makes sense, because the Giants and the Titans were willing to pay Burns and Sneed the franchise tender amount, but in the end just negotiated a long term deal instead. So the Vikings might be able to find a trade partner who doesn't want to pay him 41M, but is willing to negotiate a long term deal, but will they be able to get Darnold to play ball? He probably shouldn't play ball and refuse to negotiate with the team of the Vikings choice, because if the Vikings are forced to let him walk free, he can negotiate with any team, picking his own destination and likely getting more money.

I think the transition tag is the same thing as the non-exclusive tag.

[Vanimal46]

Tom P is back pedaling a little bit with his take today instead of his last couple appearances on KFAN. Previously he was more confident about Darnold coming back on potentially a multi year deal. The franchise tag and trade is still my preferred method to get something in return vs. him going to FA for nothing in return. 

[Vanimal46]

I heard a line on the Purple Insider podcast tonight and it’s so true. Players #2-53 are determined by the GM and HC. Player #1 is determined by ownership and that’s the starting QB. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think the Raiders going so hard (and publicly, without much shame) means we might be able to tag him and deliver him to the Raiders for some draft picks.  Even if we get their two third round picks for him I'd be happy.

[Vanimal46]

Deadline is tomorrow to issue franchise tags. My confidence in Kwesi will take a massive hit if he can’t figure out a way to tag and trade the top QB on the market in a horrible QB draft class year.