Should the Twins Strike Early for a LHRP option?

[DocBauer]

Based on finances, and the previous history of the FO to move slowly in the offseason, we're probably not going to have much to talk about in regard to 2025's team...other than small signings...until January at the earliest. Waiting, being patient, has often paid dividends for the FO when they've brought in values like Cruz, Gonzalez, and a few others. IIRC, most trades have come in January or later. As have some quality signings. And personally, I believe the changing marketplace that is MLB at this time might have more than a few FA sitting at home in early February looking for a job on bargain deals. Hopefully that will allow a value signing or two to augment the fringe areas of the roster. 

But we all know the financial story of the 2025 Twins, which is to say there is no $ room available to sign anyone until $ is freed up somehow. And barring some MAJOR surprise, we know that means trades involving Vazquez, Paddack, and possibly Castro. (Personally, I really hope it's not Castro). 

While there are reasons to be patient, especially considering what might be a deflated market this year, there is one very serious need for the 2025 Twins makeup that I believe should be addressed aggressively, and that's a LH for the pen. 

I am not here to debate with anyone who doesn't see the depth of talent...or lack of depending on your perspective/opinion...for the Twins to have a good pen next season. But I believe we can all see and agree on the need for ONE quality LH to make the pen really work. We had 3 really good years of Thielbar being that LH option who could be viable against RH batters. But he's gone now. 

IMO, there's a pair of LHRP available on the market today. I think this is the one time where they should strike first, and figure things out later.

Andrew Chafin is well known to the Twins. Even at 34yo in 2024, he turned in a great season. He has almost exact splits for his career and had been highly productive with solid K numbers. He earned a little below $5M in 2024. But would he sign for a 2yr $8M type of deal? Would the Twins want to wait for him to slip through the cracks for a 1yr deal? Based on career numbers and a good 2024, I'd bet on him for 2yrs and get the deal done.

Colin Poche was brought up recently in an OP after being non tendered by the Rays despite his arbitration numbers being about $3.4M. His career OPS against LH batters is surprisingly higher than RH batters due to SLG %, but AVG and OB% are better against LH hitters. That would seem to indicate a few more mistakes against same side hitters. But generally speaking, he's effective to both sides for his career. Is the 30yo as good or better option than Chafin? 

Is this a time where the FO should make an important early move and figure it out later? Should they be patient and see if one of these arms or someone else falls in to their lap later on? Am I missing a target you think is better?

[Vanimal46]

Andrew Chafin's mullet and mustache is elite, so I am in on him. 

[tony&rodney]

For that matter, one wonders whether Caleb Thielbar returns, healthy and ready to pitch?

[Vanimal46]

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

For that matter, one wonders whether Caleb Thielbar returns, healthy and ready to pitch?

Does Thielbar have enough time to grow an elite mustache and mullet before ST? If not, I’m not interested. 

[DJL44]

Bryan Magdaleno is a name to watch in the Rule 5 draft.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO for trades it's best to see what we need & go out there right away before the feeding frenzy that comes after teams don't get what they want. Although Falvey loves FA & wait out everybody until everything is gone & settle for scrapes, IMO it's not a favorable way for a team especially with a budget problem. 

[Otaknam]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bryan Magdaleno is a name to watch in the Rule 5 draft.

Why? What is his upside?

[DJL44]

44 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Why? What is his upside?

Quote

Magdaleno pitched a total of 42.2 innings across three levels of the minor leagues, working to a phenomenal 1.27 ERA, 2.36 FIP, and 0.94 WHIP. The lefty struck out a whopping 40.5% of the opponents he faced. His K% was the second-best among minor league relievers with at least 40 innings pitched. Magdaleno induced a ton of ground balls with a 58.3% GB%, which aided in his 0.21 HR/9 rate.

Madgaleno showed off some powerful stuff in 2024, sitting mid/upper-90s with his four-seamer. Magdaleno’s breaking offering is a sweeper. His third pitch is a sinker. Plus, he throws from a lower arm slot, adding a level of deception to his pitches. But, like many young, hard-throwing pitchers, Madgaleno’s command can get in his way. He walked 12.5% of opponents, but that represented the only blemish in what was a fantastic season overall.

A southpaw who can touch the upper 90s with a good breaking pitch ending up in the Rule 5 Draft will always get attention.

https://rumbunter.com/3-players-the-pirates-should-keep-an-eye-on-in-the-rule-5-draft/2

[nicksaviking]

Sure to Poche, no to Chaffin. Chaffin is unreliable year-to-year and has a serious walk issue the last two seasons; that doesn't tend to get better with age.

But I really don't care about bullpen splits for lefties any longer. You bring one in to face a left handed hitter and you're almost guaranteeing yourself that he'll then have to face two right handed hitters. Or three or four if he can't get the first two out.

[tony&rodney]

Maybe the pitchers who get batters out (lowest WHIP) is the best idea. Seems pretty worthless to have a roster spot taken up by a LOOGY in 2025. Tanner Scott would work. JK. $.

[Vanimal46]

On 11/29/2024 at 1:27 PM, nicksaviking said:

no to Chaffin. Chaffin is unreliable year-to-year and has a serious walk issue the last two seasons; that doesn't tend to get better with age.

You ready to say that directly to this face? He has some cousins that will mess with your car tires at the very least 

[LambchoP]

Twins know that a lefty reliever is a need. Why wait until all of the halfway decent players are signed elsewhere. Go out and get someone who should be able to hold down our number 1 LHRP. Then let Moran, Headrick, Prelipp and most likely a few minor league players duke it out for the second lefty job. We all know dealing away Vasquez's and or Paddacks salary is what is going to allow us to make any of the moves we need to make. They should get on that. Sure, they want to get the best deal possible, but the longer we wait, the less players are going to be available, especially at our bargain bin prices.

[Doctor Wu]

22 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Twins know that a lefty reliever is a need. Why wait until all of the halfway decent players are signed elsewhere.

Because that is what they do every year! The front office seems to love the play the waiting game (hoping for bargains?) and then pick up scraps just before the season starts. 

[LambchoP]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Because that is what they do every year! The front office seems to love the play the waiting game (hoping for bargains?) and then pick up scraps just before the season starts. 

And then once there is nobody left to sign, they claim that nobody wanted to come here or nothing came together. Of course it had nothing to do with the complete lack of interest on the twins part lol

[DocBauer]

On 11/29/2024 at 1:27 PM, nicksaviking said:

Sure to Poche, no to Chaffin. Chaffin is unreliable year-to-year and has a serious walk issue the last two seasons; that doesn't tend to get better with age.

But I really don't care about bullpen splits for lefties any longer. You bring one in to face a left handed hitter and you're almost guaranteeing yourself that he'll then have to face two right handed hitters. Or three or four if he can't get the first two out.

But Poche and Chaffin are exactly why you SHOULD care about bullpen splits. What we DON'T need is another Okert who does exactly what you mentioned, which is come in for a LH bat and then get stuck facing a RH or two who might destroy him. That very thing happened at least a couple times last year.

It's OK if you don't like Chaffin. But I'm targeting one of him or Poche because they shouldn't cost big $ and have really solid career splits. The Twins need ONE LH who can come in to the 7th or 8th to face a LH bat, or two, but still have a reasonable chance of getting that RH out. Thielbar could usually do that before last year. There's little room for a LOOGY any longer in today's game. Heck, I'd be inclined to offer Poche a 2yr deal for $6-7M based on his career so far. I'm really surprised the Rays cut him loose.

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But Poche and Chaffin are exactly why you SHOULD care about bullpen splits. What we DON'T need is another Okert who does exactly what you mentioned, which is come in for a LH bat and then get stuck facing a RH or two who might destroy him. That very thing happened at least a couple times last year.

It's OK if you don't like Chaffin. But I'm targeting one of him or Poche because they shouldn't cost big $ and have really solid career splits. The Twins need ONE LH who can come in to the 7th or 8th to face a LH bat, or two, but still have a reasonable chance of getting that RH out. Thielbar could usually do that before last year. There's little room for a LOOGY any longer in today's game. Heck, I'd be inclined to offer Poche a 2yr deal for $6-7M based on his career so far. I'm really surprised the Rays cut him loose.

Chafifin is name that seems to be mentioned, or on the Twjns' radar almost every off-season. He has put up consistently good numbers over the past few years, and I'm not concerned about his age so much.