Emmanuel Rodriguez Is Coming In Hot

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm not sure why everyone can't see a future for keirsey  Jr  and are down on him ( because hes older , been in minors to long ???? ),

His performance in AAA and his age. He looks like a 700 OPS ceiling on offense.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

No way they are going to burn a year (both of development and control) to have Emma as a fourth outfielder. If/when he comes up, he's going to play every day. Granted, Buxton's health is always an issue, and there is also the DH spot - but I also doubt they want to turn a 21 year old into a regular DHer.

I suspect that in the interest of resting Buxton etc if Emma were the "4th" OF he'd be getting plenty of playing time. Wallner, Larnach, and Buxton would see more time at DH, Castro would play less in the OF, etc. Performance and injuries have a way of shaking these things out fairly well.

If the Twins don't sign a veteran, there will be an opportunity for Rodriguez to push his way onto this roster. I'm good with it.

[Linus]

Let the guy prove himself at AAA first. If he is hitting there he will certainly get a chance with the Twins due to injury.  He has the potential to be a difference maker for the Twins because he would inject some speed and plus defense which they badly need. However the hitting profile has me a bit nervous. Uber patient with a lot of swing and miss. Does that remind you of anyone?

[Riverbrian]

On 10/30/2024 at 9:41 AM, tony&rodney said:

The fact that he hits from the left side is irrelevant because he doesn't have a weakness versus LH pitching.

I hope you are right on this but this is one place where I'll have to see it to believe it from a team operational standpoint. 

I agree with you...  his minor league stats don't suggest a need to platoon however Matt Wallner stats in 2022 didn't suggest a need to platoon either.

Unless they change philosophy this offseason. I fully expect the Twins to roster a couple of Refsnyder type players to cover for Wallner, Larnach and Julien. Those Refsnyder types will take roster spots that could go to someone like Erod so he will certainly not break camp with the Twins (not a surprise... he probably wouldn't under any circumstance).

Erod would then wait for an injury to occur to Wallner or Larnach to get his opportunity. Which will happen. At that point he would assume the role of Larnach or Wallner with the Refsnyder types attached to their role. 

Again... Man... I hope you are right. 

[RpR]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Unless they change philosophy this offseason. I fully expect the Twins to roster a couple of Refsnyder type players to cover for Wallner, Larnach and Julien.

 

Refsnyder types, hmm:

We should be so fortunate.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Refsnyder types, hmm:

We should be so fortunate.

Interesting... You even got a couple of likes for this response. I don't know how this is so hard for others to see but when Buxton, Lewis and Correa get hurt and they will get hurt. This is what will be facing those right handers that comprise 75% of the league.

Platoon Splits

 

I	Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
	vs RHP	307		688	611	79	141	30	2	9	54	11	5	56	170	.231	.304	.331	.635	202	21	11	1	6	0	6	.301	78
	vs LHP	318		653	552	80	153	31	1	15	70	8	4	86	132	.277	.380	.419	.799	231	13	8	0	4	6	4	.337	124
	vs RHP as RHB	307		688	611		141	30	2	9	54	0	0	56	170	.231	.304	.331	.635	202	21	11	1	6	0	6	.301	78
	vs LHP as RHB	318		653	552		153	31	1	15	70	0	0	86	132	.277	.380	.419	.799	231	13	8	0	4	6	4	.337	124
	vs RH Starter	281	125	664	583	69	135	28	2	9	53	11	5	62	161	.232	.315	.333	.648	194	17	11	1	5	4	7	.301	82
	vs LH Starter	190	173	677	580	90	159	33	1	15	71	8	4	80	141	.274	.367	.412	.779	239	17	8	0	5	2	3	.336	118

These short siders will face more right handed pitching than left handed pitching. They will absolutely without a doubt face more right handed pitching if the roster around them has a propensity to be hurt or require maintenance days like the Twins have experienced consistently with Buxton, Lewis and Correa. Or if nobody goes in the tank like Miranda has gone in the tank and requires a trip to the minors. If Castro decides to hit .160 next year. If Brooks Lee needs more minor league seasoning. If Larnach get hurt?, Wallner gets hurt?  

A short sider is fine on the roster if nobody ever gets hurt on the roster or if nobody needs a maintenance day or nobody plays below expectation. This never happens. No disrespect to Refsnyder but Rob and his short side ilk will be a problem to overcome in some form or fashion because they are the next man up when a man goes down.  

[beckmt]

17 hours ago, arby58 said:

Larnach has had 958 career AB and produced a 3.2 cumulative WAR with 35 HR and an OPS of .726. Wallner has about half as many ABs (490), has produced a 4.2 WAR with 29 HR and an OPS of .866. Wallner is also a better outfielder and runner. Yes, he strikes out a lot, but he also crushes the ball when he makes contact. I'll take that over a spray hitter, especially considering the other factors.

My point is to get something good you have to give something.  Pittsburg is cheap, therefore Wallner is the better fit for a very good return.  Yes, it may not work out, but you can't have enough pitching.  Twins have EROD and Jenkins coming, and I am tired out not being able to score runs from third and less than 2 outs, by strikeouts by too many Twins hitters.

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Interesting... You even got a couple of likes for this response. I don't know how this is so hard for others to see but when Buxton, Lewis and Correa get hurt and they will get hurt. This is what will be facing those right handers that comprise 75% of the league.

Platoon Splits

 

I	Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
	vs RHP	307		688	611	79	141	30	2	9	54	11	5	56	170	.231	.304	.331	.635	202	21	11	1	6	0	6	.301	78
	vs LHP	318		653	552	80	153	31	1	15	70	8	4	86	132	.277	.380	.419	.799	231	13	8	0	4	6	4	.337	124
	vs RHP as RHB	307		688	611		141	30	2	9	54	0	0	56	170	.231	.304	.331	.635	202	21	11	1	6	0	6	.301	78
	vs LHP as RHB	318		653	552		153	31	1	15	70	0	0	86	132	.277	.380	.419	.799	231	13	8	0	4	6	4	.337	124
	vs RH Starter	281	125	664	583	69	135	28	2	9	53	11	5	62	161	.232	.315	.333	.648	194	17	11	1	5	4	7	.301	82
	vs LH Starter	190	173	677	580	90	159	33	1	15	71	8	4	80	141	.274	.367	.412	.779	239	17	8	0	5	2	3	.336	118

These short siders will face more right handed pitching than left handed pitching. They will absolutely without a doubt face more right handed pitching if the roster around them has a propensity to be hurt or require maintenance days like the Twins have experienced consistently with Buxton, Lewis and Correa. Or if nobody goes in the tank like Miranda has gone in the tank and requires a trip to the minors. If Castro decides to hit .160 next year. If Brooks Lee needs more minor league seasoning. If Larnach get hurt?, Wallner gets hurt?  

A short sider is fine on the roster if nobody ever gets hurt on the roster or if nobody needs a maintenance day or nobody plays below expectation. This never happens. No disrespect to Refsnyder but Rob and his short side ilk will be a problem to overcome in some form or fashion because they are the next man up when a man goes down.  

Sure, Refsnyder has faced as many RH as LH pitchers.  Over the last 3 years his combined wRC+ is 122. I will take 22% above average when replacing a "full-time" starter in a heartbeat.  Then, come playoffs, that ability to start the guy that punishes LH pitching will be a huge advantage.  

[mrcharlie]

On 10/30/2024 at 12:04 PM, jmlease1 said:

I'm baffled that people would be jumping on selling off Wallner who has been one of the Twins best players the last two seasons. Despite the bad start he finished the season with a 149 OPS+ and was one of the only LH bats we had that could be counted on to consistently punish RHP. He's been an excellent corner OF, and i can't support the idea of trading him because people don't like the style.

I can explain it.   While his value is high and he is replaceable.  It is that simple.  We have two solid OF coming up in the next season or two in ERod and Jenkins.  I would support keeping him if he can demonstrate an ability to hit the ball to all fields.  Otherwise, he is expendable, along with Larnach.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

I can explain it.   While his value is high and he is replaceable.  It is that simple.  We have two solid OF coming up in the next season or two in ERod and Jenkins.  I would support keeping him if he can demonstrate an ability to hit the ball to all fields.  Otherwise, he is expendable, along with Larnach.

You want Wallner to hit less home runs and doubles, to change an approach that has him as one of the top 70-100 hitters in all of baseball so he can maybe get ten more singles?

[jorgenswest]

On 10/30/2024 at 3:10 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Put him in left field day one and leave him there. Move Larnach to first and DH. 

He subs in center when Buxton isn't playing. 

I have thought about Larnach at 1B also. I am not a believer that anybody can play 1B though or that it isn’t an important position. It is an option for a lot of players because handedness, arm strength and range are not critical. Good hands are critical and it helps to have good feet. The reality is that Larnach did not play an inning of 1B in college or the minors. Wallner hasn’t either though he played some CF and pitched in college and they may not have wanted to add 1B. It seems like a corner OF would have seen some action at 1B if his skills were any fit at all.

I think Wallner and Larnach are strictly corner OFs and I think there is space on the roster for Rodriguez and the two of them. It will be OK if two of them were in the line up against a lefty. Bat them in the bottom half of the order and the starter will be out of the game before they see him a third time.

[mrcharlie]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You want Wallner to hit less home runs and doubles, to change an approach that has him as one of the top 70-100 hitters in all of baseball so he can maybe get ten more singles?

With his power those singles are just as likely doubles and the good possibility of a few home runs.  As to his ranking across MLB as a hitter.  You might want to research that statement of yours.  Heck: there are 30+ OF alone who are better hitters.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

With his power those singles are just as likely doubles and the good possibility of a few home runs.  As to his ranking across MLB as a hitter.  You might want to research that statement of yours.  Heck: there are 30+ OF alone who are better hitters.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&qual=250

Nope. 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, mrcharlie said:

I can explain it.   While his value is high and he is replaceable.  It is that simple.  We have two solid OF coming up in the next season or two in ERod and Jenkins.  I would support keeping him if he can demonstrate an ability to hit the ball to all fields.  Otherwise, he is expendable, along with Larnach.

I believe a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues (or something like that).

The second half of your comment sounds like the advice David Ortiz got from Tom Kelly. Wallner has an elite ability to hit the ball really, really hard. Lean into that.

[beckmt]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I believe a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues (or something like that).

The second half of your comment sounds like the advice David Ortiz got from Tom Kelly. Wallner has an elite ability to hit the ball really, really hard. Lean into that.

My point is to get something good you have to give something good.  While I might prefer Laurnach, Wallner probably has more value at this time, so to get an above average pitcher (like a #2 starter), you are going to have to give some quality.  Wallner has a combination of one more year of cheap value and another year of moderate pricing.  That could be a good value to a cheap club (like Pittsburg), who may have some decent starters starting to cost more.  So the ingredients for a deal are there. 

[mrcharlie]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I believe a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues (or something like that).

The second half of your comment sounds like the advice David Ortiz got from Tom Kelly. Wallner has an elite ability to hit the ball really, really hard. Lean into that.

Good points.  And Ortiz did adjust his two strike approach later in his career.  As Wallner matures let's hope he can adjust too.

[mrcharlie]

On 11/2/2024 at 11:18 AM, Mike Sixel said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&qual=250

Nope. 

This is laughable.  wRC+ is your chosen stat line?  Most evaluations go to WAR these days; which Wallner grades out as 2.1.  I think we can find 30 OF who surpass that low bar.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, mrcharlie said:

This is laughable.  wRC+ is your chosen stat line?  Most evaluations go to WAR these days; which Wallner grades out as 2.1.  I think we can find 30 OF who surpass that low bar.

In ranking hitting ability I would use wRC+ over WAR. OPS+ and dRC+ can also be helpful. Those three can vary some in a season sample so I would probably look at 2-3 seasons weighing the most recent more.

WAR has a lot of noise and can be very different for the same player in the varied calculations. It is a stat that grows with more playing time and hard to compare with players of differing plate appearances. It includes a positional adjustment so games as a DH will be worse than the same batting line as a corner OF. It is also a base running factor that isn’t very consistent year to year.

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, mrcharlie said:

This is laughable.  wRC+ is your chosen stat line?  Most evaluations go to WAR these days; which Wallner grades out as 2.1.  I think we can find 30 OF who surpass that low bar.

War includes defense.. you said there were thirty better hitting OFers . Also it's a counting stat, and he didn't play even close too the whole year. Should I do the math for 150 games?

Even if there are thirty... There are over 100 OFers that are effectively starters. Of your mythical thirty, how many are available to replace Wallner?