We Were Deluding Ourselves, the 2024 Twins Were Never That Good

[Teflon]

Write the story of the 2024 Twins and you'll say that the team started strong but injuries overtook them, exposing a lack of depth especially on the pitching staff. That is the story I'd write, too, until I looked at the Twins' season splits.

The splits reveal the Twins to be near the middle of the pack or a little worse in almost every category except one - their winning percentage against losing teams. The Twins are a MLB-best 41-18 when playing sub .500 teams. No other team - not the Yankees or Phillies or Dodgers or Guardians - has been more dominant against losing teams. Combine that with just an average performance against winning teams and the Twins would be in the postseason. Unfortunately, the Twins have struggled against teams north of .500, going just 40-58.

Looking at the results month-by-month, it's clear how this has obscured the results this season. Minnesota had a 29-25 record at the end of May and Twins Territory was feeling encouraged about the season. The Twins were 10-0 at that point against the White Sox and Angels, however, and 19-25 against everyone else.

June (15-12) was another winning month for the Twins but... they had the good fortune of playing the Athletics in two series, going 6-1. They had a 9-11 record against everyone else. 

When July and August rolled around, the prevalent patsies of the prior months were not to be found on the schedule. The Twins only played 12 game against teams with losing records in those two months as opposed to 39 games versus teams at or above .500.  They throttled the White Sox again, taking 5 of 6, but went 21-24 against the other 14 teams.

In September, the now injury-ravaged Twins have looked much less like the schoolyard bullies they were through the end of August. They are only 6-6 this month against the sub .500 teams and an abysmal 2-8 against winning teams. 

There is no argument that injuries have impacted the Twins' playoff chances. If they had managed to keep dominating the losing teams in September they would have a spot all but clinched. The story the spilt against losing teams tells us, however, is that the Twins overall record before the injuries was propped up by a domination of one particular sad-sack team - the White Sox (12-1). The Twins simply weren't that good against the stronger teams in the league at any point in the season.  (A case could be made for how they handled the Royals early in the season, but when it counted most, they swept us.)

 

 

 

[mrcharlie]

The cream rises to the top and the Twins are fat free.

[Riverbrian]

Here is some additional support for your research and I do appreciate your research. 

The White Sox were historically bad.  In my opinion. The AL Central has received a White Sox bounce not available to the American League East and West.  That White Sox bounce was 7 additional games playing the White Sox (something Cleveland didn't take advantage of). 

Here is something that will go against your hypothesis.

We hold the tiebreakers over the Mariners, Tigers, Royals and Astros. 

 

10 hours ago, Teflon said:

The Twins are a MLB-best 41-18 when playing sub .500 teams. No other team - not the Yankees or Phillies or Dodgers or Guardians - has been more dominant against losing teams.

So what is wrong with the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians? Why the propensity to stub their toe against these sub .500 teams? Wouldn't that be concerning for the fans of the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians? 

I love your research. Thank You.

In the end... we all play a 162 game schedule. There just isn't a lot of space in the margins from the best record and the 29th best record. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Here is some additional support for your research and I do appreciate your research. 

The White Sox were historically bad.  In my opinion. The AL Central has received a White Sox bounce not available to the American League East and West.  That White Sox bounce was 7 additional games playing the White Sox (something Cleveland didn't take advantage of). 

Here is something that will go against your hypothesis.

We hold the tiebreakers over the Mariners, Tigers, Royals and Astros. 

 

So what is wrong with the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians? Why the propensity to stub their toe against these sub .500 teams? Wouldn't that be concerning for the fans of the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians? 

I love your research. Thank You.

In the end... we all play a 162 game schedule. There just isn't a lot of space in the margins from the best record and the 29th best record. 

I mean, really. How good can Cleveland be? They lost five times to what could be the worst team in modern baseball history! They even got swept by the White Sox. They lost to Chicago more than the Twins, Royals and Detroit did combined.

I never put that much stock in the records vs. winning or losing teams. By definition, most teams are going to have a losing record against teams above .500 and a winning record against those below.  

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I mean, really. How good can Cleveland be? They lost five times to what could be the worst team in modern baseball history! They even got swept by the White Sox. They lost to Chicago more than the Twins, Royals and Detroit did combined.

I never put that much stock in the records vs. winning or losing teams. By definition, most teams are going to have a losing record against teams above .500 and a winning record against those below.  

Exactly. 

The Typical level of Good is around a .600 winning percentage.  

The Typical level of bad is around .400. The Marlins are the typical level of bad. The typical level of bad will win 4 games every 10 on average. 

29 teams are within this narrow range. The White Sox certainly plunged well below this typical level. Yet...

Cleveland dropped the ball against the White Sox more times than others did. We are getting admonished for our record against the Yankees, Orioles and Cleveland. Shouldn't Cleveland be admonished for what they didn't do against the White Sox. 

This gate swings both ways... but no matter how the gate swings. It's attached firmly to the middle over 162 games. After 162 games. 6 teams are standing... the others go into the lottery.  

 

 

[Squirrel]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yet...

I’ve said it often … you never know what the day will bring. On any given day the best can be the worst and the worst can be the best. Everyone and every team has moments. It’s why we tune in every night, because we really don’t know. As for the Twins, this is just about where I thought they’d be. Not that I’m a good predictor of anything, the off season just couldn’t inspire me that they would be anything more. I wasn’t deluded by anything and I don’t think most people on these boards were. But hope springs eternal. And when spring and spring training comes around, we are all at 0-0 and anything is possible. (Probable is a different discussion.) I may not like what all transpires throughout the year, my hopes for better get dashed and dashed again, but deluded? Nope. I think people on these boards confuse hoping and wishing vs those who just want to grumble. I’m not sure who are the deluded ones in this scenario.

[Riverbrian]

48 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I’ve said it often … you never know what the day will bring. On any given day the best can be the worst and the worst can be the best. Everyone and every team has moments. It’s why we tune in every night, because we really don’t know. As for the Twins, this is just about where I thought they’d be. Not that I’m a good predictor of anything, the off season just couldn’t inspire me that they would be anything more. I wasn’t deluded by anything and I don’t think most people on these boards were. But hope springs eternal. And when spring and spring training comes around, we are all at 0-0 and anything is possible. (Probable is a different discussion.) I may not like what all transpires throughout the year, my hopes for better get dashed and dashed again, but deluded? Nope. I think people on these boards confuse hoping and wishing vs those who just want to grumble. I’m not sure who are the deluded ones in this scenario.

I think you are spot on. 

If a team goes on a 10 game win streak. Was it because the team was playing good baseball or was it because the teams they were playing were playing bad baseball at the time? 

If a team goes on a 10 game losing streak... was it because they were playing bad baseball or were the teams they were playing feeling it?  

The impossible to beat Yankees. From June 13 to July 26 went 11-24. Were they just bad during this stretch or did they catch Cincinnati and Tampa at the wrong time? The Yankees finished that stretch of bad with one win and 5 loses and then BAM!!! The Yankees did a 180 by 8-1 in the next 9 games. That is stopping and starting on a dime and this happens all year long with all 30 teams. 

The Twins were 21-13 during this same stretch. Did the Twins play good baseball during that stretch or did they catch Arizona, Seattle and Philadelphia at the right time. Probably a little of both but who knows who gets the credit for such things. Every game involves two teams with their own individual pendulums swinging back and forth. 

The Twins were 70-53 after winning the first three games of a 4 game series against Texas. They were going for the sweep with a comfortable lead on Sunday August 18... And then BAM. Alcala coughs up the lead and Duran picks up the loss in 10 innings.

Since then... The Twins have gone 12-24... Which is just like the Yankees from June 13 to July 26 going 11-24.

Our timing just happens to be a little more critical with this happening while the 162 game clock running out. 

In the end. You are right... The Twins are finishing around where you thought they would. When the wins and losses occur? No one can predict. All I know... It's 162 games and we have 4 left to play and we are down 2. Our extended stretch of losing baseball has gone on too long and our cushion is gone!!!

We have to win tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow.  

 

[Craig Arko]

Welcome to the fascinating world of statistics. 

[Squirrel]

7 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Welcome to the fascinating world of statistics. 

Can statistics measure luck, good and bad? :) 

[Craig Arko]

10 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Can statistics measure luck? :) 

We’d call it error analysis. I think ANOVA (analysis of variance) is one of the terms they toss around.

[TheLeviathan]

It's fair to argue that the ALC teams have received a boost from being able to wail on the White Sox all year.  That said....good teams should wail on bad teams.  When they don't, it has seriously negative impacts on them and they are rightly criticized.  Look no further than the 22-23 Timberwolves who were a play-in team rather than a #3 seed by virtue of a god awful record against terrible teams.  Even a .500 record against the dregs would've earned them a huge bump in the standings.

The Twins have had long stretches of really good baseball this year.  They've had long stretches of really bad baseball this year.  Perhaps they're just mediocre.  Given the way the roster was gutted of depth, that would seem to make sense.  They banked on big performances from young guys and got mixed results.  (Julien, Wallner, Lee, SWR, Lewis, Larnach, etc)  They banked on come-back performances and got mostly bad results.  (Margot, Paddack, Vasquez, Kepler)  They banked on star/established players carrying them and again got mixed results.  (Correa, Buck, Lopez, Duran, Jax, Santana, Theilbar)

All and all, the fact they'll finish with a (just barely) winning record is about what was reasonable.  It might even be a bit surprising given the injuries.

[Danchat]

They've also been a hot-and-cold team. Cold at the start and end of the season, and got hot in May-July. The difference in at-bats we've seen from then to now is monumental. I had this team at around 85-86 wins so reaching close to that isn't a shock, it's just the way the season has gone has been full of twists and turns.

[NYCTK]

I text my buddy this back on July 8th. This was never not the case. This team was just exceptional and beating the bad teams they were supposed to beat. They were 1-16 against what you would classify as "good" teams at that time. The Twins were always a mirage. 

[Jocko87]

Counterpoint. Nobody else was ever that good either.  

An offense that was league average over the last 30 days cruises into the playoffs.  The Twins were a bottom 3 offense at the time the pitching needed them most.  Nobody had that on their bingo card.  

An offense at full (Twins) tilt walks away with the division.  

This roster is good, if flawed just like the rest of them. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

I text my buddy this back on July 8th. This was never not the case. This team was just exceptional and beating the bad teams they were supposed to beat. They were 1-16 against what you would classify as "good" teams at that time. The Twins were always a mirage. 

But were they a mirage for those of us who expected what we got? Of course I always hope for better, we should hope for better. But many of us still predicted average or just above. That's where they are right now.

[Reider]

I remember looking at the standings, when the Twins had 70 wins. The Yankee's had 73 wins. The Yankees either had the most wins in the MLB at the time or were close to having the most. The Twins were in the mix. However, over the last five or six weeks, the Twins have tanked. It's really too bad because for a while there, it looked like they had a good chance of earning a Wild Card spot.