Ranking the Biggest Threats to the Minnesota Twins' Wild Card Spot

[Matthew Taylor]

A few weeks ago, it seemed the Minnesota Twins had their playoff spot all but secured. However, a recent slide has turned their postseason hopes into a battle for the third Wild Card spot. With the Mariners, Red Sox, and Tigers all jostling for position, the Twins must now fend off some serious threats.

Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Suddenly, the road to the playoffs looks bumpier than anyone in Twins Territory would like. Now, the Twins find themselves in a fight, with three teams breathing down their necks for the sixth seed in the American League: the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, and Detroit Tigers.

So, let’s take a look at these teams and rank them based on their threat level to the Twins. We’ll factor in rosters, tiebreakers, strength of schedule, and any remaining head-to-head matchups that could make or break Minnesota’s postseason hopes.

The Tiebreaker Situation

The good news for the Twins? They’ve already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the Tigers and the Mariners. With a 7-6 season record against Detroit and a 5-2 record against Seattle, the Twins essentially hold an extra half-game cushion on these two teams. If they finish the season tied, the Twins would claim the Wild Card spot.

Boston, however, is a different story. The Twins lead their season series 2-1, with three games remaining in September at Fenway Park. If the Twins avoid a sweep in that series, they will most likely secure the tiebreaker against the Red Sox, as well. In a scenario where the Sox take two of three when the Twins go there and then catch them the rest of the way, the battle for the Wild Card would come down to intradivision record--where the Twins currently hold a slight edge. Thanks, White Sox.

Now, let’s break down the three teams.

3. Seattle Mariners

Of the three teams chasing the Twins, the Seattle Mariners rank as the least threatening. Yes, they have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball, with a league-leading 3.55 team ERA, but their offense has been a serious weak spot all year, ranking 25th in OPS at just .675. They're going to break the team strikeout record the Twins just set last year, but they have very little power to counterbalance that. In a playoff chase where every game matters, that’s not going to cut it.

Another point in the Twins’ favor is the Mariners’ grueling remaining schedule. Seattle still has seven games left against tough opponents, in the Astros, Yankees, and Padres, who are all still fighting for playoff positioning. On top of that, they face the reigning World Series champion Rangers seven times. While the Mariners could put up a fight, their offensive struggles and challenging schedule make them the least concerning of the three.

2. Detroit Tigers

Coming in at number two are the Detroit Tigers—a team many wrote off after they sold at the trade deadline. Yet, since early August, the Tigers have become a sneaky threat, thanks largely to their dominant pitching. With a 2.85 team ERA since the deadline, they’ve actually had the best pitching in the American League over the last few weeks, even after dealing away Jack Flaherty.

What makes Detroit a bigger threat than Seattle is their schedule. They have the third-easiest remaining slate in baseball, including five games against two of the league’s worst teams, the Rockies and White Sox. While their offense is hardly a juggernaut, ranking 24th in team OPS, the Tigers’ favorable schedule means they could pick up easy wins and close the gap.

Fortunately for the Twins, they’ve already clinched the season series against Detroit, which adds a bit of breathing room. But Detroit’s surge in pitching and their remaining schedule make them a team to keep an eye on.

1. Boston Red Sox

And now, we come to the biggest threat: the Boston Red Sox. Despite having the 7th-toughest remaining schedule in baseball, Boston’s high-powered offense, paired with their ability to control their own destiny, makes them the most dangerous competitor. Their offense ranks second in the league in OPS, and with sluggers like Rafael Devers and breakout star Jarren Duran, the Red Sox have the firepower to get hot and take control.

Unlike Seattle and Detroit, Boston still has a head-to-head opportunity to make up ground against the Twins, with a crucial three-game series at Fenway Sept. 20-22. If Boston sweeps that series, they could at least force a stressful final week, for all involved. That, combined with their offensive firepower, makes the Red Sox the most immediate threat.

With the pack tightening, the Twins can’t afford any more slip-ups. While Seattle and Detroit pose challenges, it’s the Red Sox who present the most dangerous roadblock between Minnesota and October baseball. If the Twins take care of business, they should be able to hold onto that third Wild Card, but fans would be wise to keep an eye on these three teams in the weeks to come.

View full article

[Craig Arko]

I’d have to say the Twins are the greatest threat to the Twins wild card position. It’s theirs to lose.

[CRF]

37 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’d have to say the Twins are the greatest threat to the Twins wild card position. It’s theirs to lose.

100% agree. They themselves are the biggest obstacle.

[gregens]

45 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’d have to say the Twins are the greatest threat to the Twins wild card position. It’s theirs to lose.

I agree, the Twins are their own worst enemy.  But it's theirs to win!

[bean5302]

The Tigers are the biggest threat based on how they've been generating results and playing. They're among the leaders in every facet of the game. There are some components of their performance which doesn't seem sustainable (xFIP's are much higher than ERA/FIPs, and BABIP for their hitters is inflated at .323), but Detroit was due for some BABIP luck, and it still hasn't evened out.

Over the past month
Batting wRC+ 108 (10th)
Defense +3.5 (4th)
Base Running +2.0 (10th)
Starter ERA 3.11 (3rd)
Starter FIP 3.44 (5th)
Reliever ERA 1.92 (1st)
Reliever FIP 3.20 (4th)

The Tigers have moved on from Javy Baez and it's paid dividends with Trey Sweeny providing league average production at the plate. Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith are showing some signs of life, and the rest of Detroit's lineup is producing as well. It's not 1 or 2 guys carrying the team.

The Twins are in a position where they need to find motivation and energy. They've undermined their spark plug, face of the franchise star player so I'm not sure it'll come from there. The other team leaders are injured and not with the team. If the team does find the motivation through desperation should the Tigers close in further, that kind of energy is more like a second wind and fades fast.

The Tigers' march has been steady and consistent. The kind of performance which sustains energy and provides confidence. I suspect the Twins will miss the playoffs this year at this point, and they'll miss it due to Detroit marching past.

[Doctor Gast]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Tigers are the biggest threat based on how they've been generating results and playing. They're among the leaders in every facet of the game. There are some components of their performance which doesn't seem sustainable (xFIP's are much higher than ERA/FIPs, and BABIP for their hitters is inflated at .323), but Detroit was due for some BABIP luck, and it still hasn't evened out.

Over the past month
Batting wRC+ 108 (10th)
Defense +3.5 (4th)
Base Running +2.0 (10th)
Starter ERA 3.11 (3rd)
Starter FIP 3.44 (5th)
Reliever ERA 1.92 (1st)
Reliever FIP 3.20 (4th)

The Tigers have moved on from Javy Baez and it's paid dividends with Trey Sweeny providing league average production at the plate. Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith are showing some signs of life, and the rest of Detroit's lineup is producing as well. It's not 1 or 2 guys carrying the team.

The Twins are in a position where they need to find motivation and energy. They've undermined their spark plug, face of the franchise star player so I'm not sure it'll come from there. The other team leaders are injured and not with the team. If the team does find the motivation through desperation should the Tigers close in further, that kind of energy is more like a second wind and fades fast.

The Tigers' march has been steady and consistent. The kind of performance which sustains energy and provides confidence. I suspect the Twins will miss the playoffs this year at this point, and they'll miss it due to Detroit marching past.

& they were sellers at the deadline. What would it be like if they'd have kept them & added to their need?

[MinnInPa]

unbelievable that Twins are even in this tight situation...if they could hit the ball, pitch the ball, field the ball..and run the bases correctly they would be fine.. thats all.. hahahahahah

[Trov]

Twins fully control their fate.  If they can win series down the stretch they will take the wild card.  They need to take care of business against the Reds, then hopefully minimal split against Cleveland, win the sox series and it should be locked in after that. We can have a good bounce back against Miami if needed, and the last series against Baltimore will be interesting match up at that point.  Baltimore may be trying to win division and a bye, or setting up for first round matchup, which depending on how things play out, could be against the Twins. 

[LambchoP]

Twins pitching just needs to hold up. Three rookies in the rotation is extremely risky in a tight playoff race. My guess is, we're going to be giving up some runs. Meaning we're going to have to out-slug our opponents and our bullpen is going to be pitching a LOT of innings. With Buxton back on Friday and Correa hopefully soon after, we control our own fate. Get hot at the right time and anything can happen!

[IaBeanCounter]

Good day for the Twins; Cle, Det and Boston lost.  WC magic # 12.  Det loss to Colo was kind of a must win game.  Their next 3 series are Balt, KC and Balt.

As said above the Twins just need to win or split the remaining series.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

the Twins just need to win or split the remaining series

If this is true, they’re in deep trouble. They’ve won or split 3 of the last 7 series.

[IaBeanCounter]

7 hours ago, jkcarew said:

If this is true, they’re in deep trouble. They’ve won or split 3 of the last 7 series.

They have 5 series left, if they win each of the 3 game series  and split the Cle series they have 10 wins at the minimum.   At 88 wins they should have a WC spot.

The last weekend of the season could be very interesting.   Hopefully the Twins have a playoff spot locked up and are just playing for seeding.  The Twins play Balt, KC v Atl,  and Cle v Hou.

[stringer bell]

It's hard to expect much more than.500 from the Twins the rest of the way when they are starting a rookie 60% of the time. Maybe Buxton (and hopefully Correa) can help the club offensively and defensively enough to win some games they've been coughing up lately, but IMHO they still short on pitching, leaky on defense and slump-prone on offense at exactly the worst time. 

To the OP, I still think the Red Sox are a threat with three home games vs. the wounded Twins coming up with a sweep winning the Rose Hose the tiebreaker. Seven wins is probably enough to get a series in Houston, six maybe and five means a longer off-season.

[Riverbrian]

Every day is a new day. Whatever happened up from the beginning of the season to September 12th no longer matters. 

It's a 16 game sprint to the finish line. We currently have 3.5 game head start over the closest competitor behind us.

Each win by the Twins and each loss by the Mariners, Tigers and Red Sox is big because it's a sprint now.

I'll place extra importance on the Red Sox series but in no way will I diminish the importance of the other 13 games. 

Buckle Up... This is what I want every single year. I want September to matter and it matters. Hats off to the players, coaches and management for getting us this far. 

Bring it Home 

[PatPfund]

What @Craig Arko said. And frankly the Twins need to forget all three teams, and use the last games of the season to (re)figure out how to beat teams on a regular basis, and at least put a scare into those above us. Because if we enter the last week worrying about tie-breakers with Detroit or intra-division records this is just a race to become playoff practice fodder for some team with higher aspirations.

Maybe scraping into the playoffs for a quick first round exit would have been fine a few years ago, but as defending division champions, this team was set up for much more even given a reduced budget. The aim needs to be higher than losing out on the 3rd wild card.

[jkcarew]

On 9/13/2024 at 7:16 AM, IaBeanCounter said:They have 5 series left, if they win each of the 3 game series  and split the Cle series they have 10 wins at the minimum.   At 88 wins they should have a WC spot.

The last weekend of the season could be very interesting.   Hopefully the Twins have a playoff spot locked up and are just playing for seeding.  The Twins play Balt, KC v Atl,  and Cle v Hou.

See what I mean? “Winning each of the 3 game series” was highly unlikely the way they’d been playing.

[cmoss84]

3. Ourselves

2. Rocco

1. Front office Einsteins