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Suddenly, the road to the playoffs looks bumpier than anyone in Twins Territory would like. Now, the Twins find themselves in a fight, with three teams breathing down their necks for the sixth seed in the American League: the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, and Detroit Tigers.
So, let’s take a look at these teams and rank them based on their threat level to the Twins. We’ll factor in rosters, tiebreakers, strength of schedule, and any remaining head-to-head matchups that could make or break Minnesota’s postseason hopes.
The Tiebreaker Situation
The good news for the Twins? They’ve already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the Tigers and the Mariners. With a 7-6 season record against Detroit and a 5-2 record against Seattle, the Twins essentially hold an extra half-game cushion on these two teams. If they finish the season tied, the Twins would claim the Wild Card spot.
Boston, however, is a different story. The Twins lead their season series 2-1, with three games remaining in September at Fenway Park. If the Twins avoid a sweep in that series, they will most likely secure the tiebreaker against the Red Sox, as well. In a scenario where the Sox take two of three when the Twins go there and then catch them the rest of the way, the battle for the Wild Card would come down to intradivision record--where the Twins currently hold a slight edge. Thanks, White Sox.
Now, let’s break down the three teams.
3. Seattle Mariners
Of the three teams chasing the Twins, the Seattle Mariners rank as the least threatening. Yes, they have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball, with a league-leading 3.55 team ERA, but their offense has been a serious weak spot all year, ranking 25th in OPS at just .675. They're going to break the team strikeout record the Twins just set last year, but they have very little power to counterbalance that. In a playoff chase where every game matters, that’s not going to cut it.
Another point in the Twins’ favor is the Mariners’ grueling remaining schedule. Seattle still has seven games left against tough opponents, in the Astros, Yankees, and Padres, who are all still fighting for playoff positioning. On top of that, they face the reigning World Series champion Rangers seven times. While the Mariners could put up a fight, their offensive struggles and challenging schedule make them the least concerning of the three.
2. Detroit Tigers
Coming in at number two are the Detroit Tigers—a team many wrote off after they sold at the trade deadline. Yet, since early August, the Tigers have become a sneaky threat, thanks largely to their dominant pitching. With a 2.85 team ERA since the deadline, they’ve actually had the best pitching in the American League over the last few weeks, even after dealing away Jack Flaherty.
What makes Detroit a bigger threat than Seattle is their schedule. They have the third-easiest remaining slate in baseball, including five games against two of the league’s worst teams, the Rockies and White Sox. While their offense is hardly a juggernaut, ranking 24th in team OPS, the Tigers’ favorable schedule means they could pick up easy wins and close the gap.
Fortunately for the Twins, they’ve already clinched the season series against Detroit, which adds a bit of breathing room. But Detroit’s surge in pitching and their remaining schedule make them a team to keep an eye on.
1. Boston Red Sox
And now, we come to the biggest threat: the Boston Red Sox. Despite having the 7th-toughest remaining schedule in baseball, Boston’s high-powered offense, paired with their ability to control their own destiny, makes them the most dangerous competitor. Their offense ranks second in the league in OPS, and with sluggers like Rafael Devers and breakout star Jarren Duran, the Red Sox have the firepower to get hot and take control.
Unlike Seattle and Detroit, Boston still has a head-to-head opportunity to make up ground against the Twins, with a crucial three-game series at Fenway Sept. 20-22. If Boston sweeps that series, they could at least force a stressful final week, for all involved. That, combined with their offensive firepower, makes the Red Sox the most immediate threat.
With the pack tightening, the Twins can’t afford any more slip-ups. While Seattle and Detroit pose challenges, it’s the Red Sox who present the most dangerous roadblock between Minnesota and October baseball. If the Twins take care of business, they should be able to hold onto that third Wild Card, but fans would be wise to keep an eye on these three teams in the weeks to come.
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