Keeping Christian Vázquez Isn't a Sunk-Cost Fallacy Situation

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Cody for this article. We have to look back on why we signed him. We signed him because our catching was in the toilet. Defensively he has raised the level to above average. Besides raising the catching level our pitching level has increased. Besides being a top defensive catcher, he's very good at game-calling & handling the pitchers. Besides working well with the pitchers, he works well with the INFers, especially Correa. He's also a great clubhouse guy.

Did we overpay for Vazquez? Maybe so. But what is done is done & what is the alternative? If we DFA him we are out the money or if we can trade him we'll have to eat a good portion of that money. Either way, our defense will take a blow. Carmargo isn't a serious backup. Then we'll have to pay extra for an inferior backup. 

 

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Vazquez isn't MLB caliber.

You doubled down on this statement. Apparently you have an insight that surpasses those of the people who are employed to evaluate and sign athletes to MLB contracts or you have fallen victim to data.

I'm often confused by your takes. Are you addicted to data in a manner that restricts any option to just watch a game or just simply unfamiliar with the game? I'm believing the former. Data is useful but seems to ruin the game for many people. Using data, you can say that Vazquez is nearly useless and that Pablo Lopez is a poor pitcher. I would suggest that those who make their living at the game would strongly disagree with that view. 

I get the fascination with data. In the 1990s I used charts, graphs, and self-made systems to manage teams for decades in a manner that seemed representative of what I saw from my teams. There are many such schemes and far more complicated and accurate systems used in the game today. Every team employs people using data, which is transferred as suggestions down to the players.

So I agree with the use of data. However, I would suggest  that one would get more out of the game from taking a couple of years away from all data and just watching the games. Watching the games can also allow one to avoid falling prey to constant criticism of the athletes thus making for a more positive entertainment experience. Baseball, for those not making their paychecks from the game, is simply entertainment.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I would suggest  that one would get more out of the game from taking a couple of years away from all data and just watching the games. Watching the games can also allow one to avoid falling prey to constant criticism of the athletes thus making for a more positive entertainment experience. Baseball, for those not making their paychecks from the game, is simply entertainment.

I am excited to watch a game this weekend and I would like to watch more of them. When do you think the Twins will make their games readily available to their fans who don't want cable TV?

[srlarson]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You don't have to ignore 2023. If you assume that 600 OPS is his true talent level he's a perfectly fine 2nd catcher because of his defense.

but not at $10mil/yr.....back up catchers should be a couple of million/yr......and having another yr of this is terrible for a team on a budget!  

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I am excited to watch a game this weekend and I would like to watch more of them. When do you think the Twins will make their games readily available to their fans who don't want cable TV?

Solid point. The media fiasco is probably hurting the Twins more than they realize. Attendance is down in 2024 with a team that is more fun to watch .... if you can. 

[bean5302]

57 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You doubled down on this statement...

I'll 1,000x down on that. Vazquez's fWAR is -0.1 after 50 games, and MLB owners proposed using fWAR as a basis for player compensation. It's also worth noting multiple players are on record saying WAR is the most important stat for any player in terms of negotiations. It's the defacto "how good is a player?" as evaluated by the people who employ baseball players. Lets go ahead and say it's considered a fairly good estimate of player value.

Christian Vazquez, by very definition, is worse than your average AAA call up catcher. That's not MLB caliber.
He's not great at blocking.
He's not great at controlling the run game.
He's very good at framing because he's short
He calls a good game  (analysis attempts have been unable to prove game calling is even a "thing" and ask Jhoan Duran about Vazquez's amazing game calling. Catchers don't need to call games anymore since they can get a cheat sheet or they get their direction from the pitching coaches/dugout)

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Ctwink said:

Apparently you skipped over the parts of the article where he talked about Vazquez sucking at the beginning of the season.....

He acknowledged it, calling a 7 wrc below average......, he didn't try to look at the relative value of that and his defense. It was also a few lines.... In a long post. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thank you Cody for this article. We have to look back on why we signed him. We signed him because our catching was in the toilet. Defensively he has raised the level to above average. Besides raising the catching level our pitching level has increased. Besides being a top defensive catcher, he's very good at game-calling & handling the pitchers. Besides working well with the pitchers, he works well with the INFers, especially Correa. He's also a great clubhouse guy.

Did we overpay for Vazquez? Maybe so. But what is done is done & what is the alternative? If we DFA him we are out the money or if we can trade him we'll have to eat a good portion of that money. Either way, our defense will take a blow. Carmargo isn't a serious backup. Then we'll have to pay extra for an inferior backup. 

 

Which has nothing to do with Vazquez being good. It's a knock on their catcher depth. Which we both dislike. 

[yeahyabetcha]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Vazquez isn't MLB caliber, but at least his bat isn't the worst in MLB anymore. There's still some positive regression possibility for him. He could wind up at at 0.5 or maybe even 1.0 WAR with some luck?

In any case, he's not a guy a playoff caliber team wants playing much, but there aren't probably a lot better options for essentially "free."

10 year veteran including 2 world championships, yet he isn’t MLB caliber.  I wonder how he has fooled everyone for so long??

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

10 year veteran including 2 world championships, yet he isn’t MLB caliber.  I wonder how he has fooled everyone for so long??

I mean, Kent Hrbek isn't a mlb caliber 1B anymore....maybe Vazquez isn't either. I'm not sure how things that happened 3-7 years ago tell us much more than the last 18 months do.....

[yeahyabetcha]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, Kent Hrbek isn't a mlb caliber 1B anymore....maybe Vazquez isn't either. I'm not sure how things that happened 3-7 years ago tell us much more than the last 18 months do.....

The Twins record with him seems to be ok.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, yeahyabetcha said:

The Twins record with him seems to be ok.

I have no idea how this is relevant at all. The other players being great doesn't make him good. 

[Linus]

It doesn’t really matter because the Twins are tube locked with the guy. They would have to pay down his salary substantially to be able to trade him and then turn around and pay another guy to take his place. So get used to him because you will be watching him for another year and a half. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Linus said:

It doesn’t really matter because the Twins are tube locked with the guy. They would have to pay down his salary substantially to be able to trade him and then turn around and pay another guy to take his place. So get used to him because you will be watching him for another year and a half. 

agreed.

[Craig Arko]

32 minutes ago, Linus said:

It doesn’t really matter because the Twins are tube locked with the guy. They would have to pay down his salary substantially to be able to trade him and then turn around and pay another guy to take his place. So get used to him because you will be watching him for another year and a half. 

And if this team makes it through three seasons with two, and only two catchers, with neither spending a day on the IL, I’m really happy about that. I suspect the pitching staff would be, too.

[NYCTK]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Vazquez isn't MLB caliber.

Frankly, you don't know what you're talking about. He's not MLB starting caliber. But half the teams in the league would take him as a backup. These last couple seasons, he's ranked 38th amongst the 62 Catchers with at least 200 PAs. 

Are we paying him too much for his production? Yes. But be for real. 

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Frankly, you don't know what you're talking about. He's not MLB starting caliber. But half the teams in the league would take him as a backup. These last couple seasons, he's ranked 38th amongst the 62 Catchers with at least 200 PAs. 

Are we paying him too much for his production? Yes. But be for real. 

I don't huh? Oh if only it were 2023 again, but it's not. Go troll someplace else.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Frankly, you don't know what you're talking about. He's not MLB starting caliber. But half the teams in the league would take him as a backup. These last couple seasons, he's ranked 38th amongst the 62 Catchers with at least 200 PAs. 

Are we paying him too much for his production? Yes. But be for real. 

He's not the Twins number 2 catcher.....that's on the Twins for refusing to play Jeffers like other teams play their top catcher (admittedly, Jeffers isn't hitting well right now, but I don't believe in the hot hand all that much, play the better player more).

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

I don't huh? Oh if only it were 2023 again, but it's not. Go troll someplace else.

Ok, guy saying a dude that just hit a walk-off homerun isn't MLB caliber. 

He's probably being played too much, but let's not pretend as if Jeffers doesn't have 100 more PAs than him. 

And you want to ignore 2023, but I assume you also want to ignore that Vazquez has been more valuable the last month as well, because that doesn't fit in with your hyperbolic narrative. 

Vazquez kinda sucks. There's no way around it. But almost every team's backup catcher kinda sucks. That's the job. 

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not the Twins number 2 catcher.....that's on the Twins for refusing to play Jeffers like other teams play their top catcher (admittedly, Jeffers isn't hitting well right now, but I don't believe in the hot hand all that much, play the better player more).

You can say he's started more games, sure, but let's not pretend as if Jeffers isn't Option A. Jeffers has 100 more PAs for a reason. If the Twins had a legit DH option for longer stretches, Jeffers wouldn't be seeing so many starts there. 

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which has nothing to do with Vazquez being good. It's a knock on their catcher depth. Which we both dislike. 

I'm glad we both agree Mike, about our catching depth. But to quote what I wrote before to show his value to the Twins, "Defensively he has raised the level to above average. Besides raising the catching level our pitching level has increased. Besides being a top defensive catcher, he's very good at game-calling & handling the pitchers. Besides working well with the pitchers, he works well with the INFers, especially Correa. He's also a great clubhouse guy."

And I'd like to add also that he's durable, a rare quality for catchers. I'd also like to point out that Ryan Jeffers is a great backup catcher or in tandem but doesn't have the physical or mental durability to be a primary catcher. Let's look at his stats.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2020	23	MIN	AL	26	62	55	5	15	0	0	3	7	0	0	5	19	.273	.355	.436	.791	119	24	0	2	0	0	0	2/DH
2021	24	MIN	AL	85	293	267	28	53	10	1	14	35	0	1	22	108	.199	.270	.401	.670	83	107	6	4	0	0	0	2/H
2022	25	MIN	AL	67	236	212	25	44	10	1	7	27	0	0	23	62	.208	.285	.363	.648	85	77	6	0	1	0	0	2/DH
2023	26	MIN	AL	96	335	286	46	79	15	2	14	43	3	2	33	93	.276	.369	.490	.858	134	140	6	10	4	2	1	2H/D
2024	27	MIN	AL	72	285	247	35	59	16	0	14	47	2	0	21	59	.239	.324	.474	.798	123	117	6	12	1	4	0	2D/H

'20 he subbed a few games, he had a good year. '21 Garver was injured & Jeffers had the lion's share over Rortvedt, Jeffers slumped. '22 Garver & Rortvedt traded, Jeffers was declared the primary catcher, not able to handle the added physical & mental strain Jeffers quickly crashed & burned. '23 Vazquez was signed as the principal catcher in the catching duo. Jeffers as backup, Jeffers thrived. '23 postseason Jeffers was declared primary catcher (over 2X WS championship experienced Vazquez) Jeffers got 2 singles out of 19 ABs no RBIs. '24 sharing duties at catcher & did well until he got extra DH duties & started to slump.

As you look at Jeffers stats, Jeffers depends on Vazquez to at least carry 50% of the catching duties for him to thrive. Vazquez not missing time has aided in Jeffers success. IMO many people will be very delusional after Vazquez, leaves, thinking Jeffers & Camargo can handle the catching duties.