Tigers 9, Twins 2, Festa struggles, Lee Makes MLB Debut in Loss to Tigers

[LambchoP]

I like the Tyler Anderson move. If not him, have Estevez as a fall back. He'd be a good late inning guy for us.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

My immediate reaction to the Varland “piggy back” was it won’t work, not an option. 30 seconds later????

Varland is strong enough to throw 3 innings in “a Festa start” and throw 1 inning in between. This approach wouldn’t shorten the Pen enough to be harmful…..at first blush.

Problem is, when (on what pitch) is Festa grooving a pitch for a home run? It’s worth some consideration! ……probably only from those who frequent TD.

Probably giving Festa one more start regardless of outcome and back to Paddack from July 19 to September 1st……. then a re-shuffling.

Piggy-backing in the TD world, it doesn't work. But in the real world, there is great success for those who are courageous enough to buck the system. Twins had great success with it under 1st year of Baldelli with Perez & Pineda. It wasn't until some time after they stopped it that rotation blew up. Since then piggy-backing & even long relief has been frowned upon by the Twins & TD. In my recollection, Twins always had trouble hitting against piggy-backing or BP games.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don't think Festa will (or should) get another start. His turn comes up Monday 7/8 in Chicago. With the off day next Thursday, we can pitch Ober today, next Tuesday, and again on Sunday the 14th. Then it's the ASB so it's only this one start next Monday we have to cover.  Paddack went on the 15 day IL on 6/25 so he isn't available until the 10th. The only obvious AAA on the 40 man answers are Caleb Boushley and Louie Varland. Boushley pitched last night (poorly, but was good until then), so he is on track for Monday. Varland is not pitching well in AAA so he would be a real crapshoot.  I would give Boushley a one game audition against the worst team in the AL to see if there's anything there. 

Festa has talent but he just isn't ready yet. Send him back down to work on his command. He'll be back and I would guess he's back this year unless we trade for another starter. 

[wabene]

38 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Is it possible that a Festa start against Chicago could be a confidence builder?  I'd still send him down afterwards but with a boat load of confidence assuming of course he'd have a solid outing against the worst team in BB.

Good thinking but if course it could backfire, lol.

[bean5302]

I've already seen all I need to see with Festa for a while. The Tigers are not a good hitting ball club and they just destroyed what he was offering. Festa also struggled against the Diamondbacks. 

It's easy to back up the eye test with pitch info. Festa does not have great control, his changeup is 30 grade, a show me pitch, really. Festa was able to get AAA hitters out with an average MLB caliber fastball and a very good slider, but the changeup is honestly just batting practice at the MLB level.

Festa's getting ahead in the count with a 60-70% first pitch strike rate, and he's throwing a ton of strikes (too many), but his stuff just doesn't fool MLB hitters.

[wabene]

For those ready to stick a fork in Festa have a gander at Jose Berrios first year starting with the Twins. Yes he was a little younger, but gads.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

For those ready to stick a fork in Festa have a gander at Jose Berrios first year starting with the Twins. Yes he was a little younger, but gads.

Is anybody actually giving up on Festa?

Berrios was rough to start, no doubt, but he was also a much better prospect, with far better results in AA/AAA, and maybe most importantly he was debuting for a terrible team vs. one that is pushing for a postseason spot. 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, wabene said:

For those ready to stick a fork in Festa have a gander at Jose Berrios first year starting with the Twins. Yes he was a little younger, but gads.

In addition to Kirbydome's excellent points above...

Why would we want to repeat that?

[wabene]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

In addition to Kirbydome's excellent points above...

Why would we want to repeat that?

Huh? Who said that settle down

[wabene]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Is anybody actually giving up on Festa?

Berrios was rough to start, no doubt, but he was also a much better prospect, with far better results in AA/AAA, and maybe most importantly he was debuting for a terrible team vs. one that is pushing for a postseason spot. 

Adding a little perspective and interest. I have not stated any opinion. Show me where I explicitly compared Festa to anyone. You make the point anyway by pointing out that Berrios was superior. If someone as pedigreed as Berrios can struggle anyone can.

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Piggy-backing in the TD world, it doesn't work. But in the real world, there is great success for those who are courageous enough to buck the system. Twins had great success with it under 1st year of Baldelli with Perez & Pineda. It wasn't until some time after they stopped it that rotation blew up. Since then piggy-backing & even long relief has been frowned upon by the Twins & TD. In my recollection, Twins always had trouble hitting against piggy-backing or BP games.

I couldn't remember Pineda and Pérez piggybacking, so I checked the game logs. Pérez relieved Pineda in Big Mike's first start of 2019 and not ever again for the entire year. Maybe you are remembering someone else relieving Pineda and maybe it wasn't in 2019, but that was Pérez' only year with the Twins.

[bean5302]

I'm not ready to completely stick a fork in Festa because there's no need to do that. He'll have 2 more option years. There's also no chance I'd call his number again this year, and I never expect him to be good in an MLB rotation. He's got to find a 3rd MLB caliber pitch because he has an average fastball since it only has vertical movement, and a good slider.

My rotation depth chart looks like this:
Boushley > Matthews (NR) > Dobnak (NR) > Varland > Morris (NR) > Festa at the moment.

@KirbyDome89 is dead on with his assessment about Berrios' performance in the minors. Berrios was consistently dominant and he was a universal top 30 prospect. #19 for MLB. #12 for Fangraphs, etc before he dominated AAA in 2016. Day in, day out. Berrios (a22) had only 3 starts in 17 AAA (18%) appearances where his FIP was north of 4.04 with none over 5.29. His final 4 starts before call up? 4 GS, 28.0 IP (7.0 avg), 2.25 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 12.86 K/9, 1.93 BB/9.

Festa's been a Fangraphs velo darling who's flirted with top 100 status in some circles despite never being all that great of a results pitcher. Like Jim Hoey, though, a 100mph straight ball is still something MLB hitters will crush. Comparing Festa's a24 second go 'round in AAA season to Berrios' age 22 season. 14 GS 59.2 IP (4.1 avg), with 7 games (50%) having an FIP of 4.27 or higher, and 4 which were 6.27+. His last 4 starts? 20.2 IP (avg 5.0), 5.66 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 13.12 K/9, 3.62 BB/9.

The two prospects weren't remotely similar. Berrios had multiple plus to plus-plus pitches and great control. He was an elite prospect with consistently dominant performances. Festa has none of that.

[bean5302]

17 minutes ago, wabene said:

Adding a little perspective and interest. I have not stated any opinion. Show me where I explicitly compared Festa to anyone. You make the point anyway by pointing out that Berrios was superior. If someone as pedigreed as Berrios can struggle anyone can.

I felt the same way most other felt. You compared the struggles of a now highly proven, great MLB pitcher who had a lot of struggles in his first MLB opportunity (Berrios) to Festa's struggles leading to 2 presumptions.
1) Any prospect can struggle because Berrios did
2) Any prospect can overcome the struggle because Berrios did <--- this is the part where Berrios gets directly compared to Festa

[wabene]

42 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I felt the same way most other felt. You compared the struggles of a now highly proven, great MLB pitcher who had a lot of struggles in his first MLB opportunity (Berrios) to Festa's struggles leading to 2 presumptions.
1) Any prospect can struggle because Berrios did
2) Any prospect can overcome the struggle because Berrios did <--- this is the part where Berrios gets directly compared to Festa

Most others? 2? Whatever you want to read into it is your choice. I was providing perspective. Struggles happen. They can be overcome. The rest is your own noise.

[wabene]

What would I do? Give Festa one more against the ChiSox and reevaluate from there. 

 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

What would I do? Give Festa one more against the ChiSox and reevaluate from there. 

 

I agree prospects can struggle. It's not necessarily indicative of much.

But the I don't think the current version of Festa is ready to win a game in the big leagues. 

The Twins can't really afford to give away games. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

18 hours ago, wabene said:

For those ready to stick a fork in Festa have a gander at Jose Berrios first year starting with the Twins. Yes he was a little younger, but gads.

There is that small little thing that Berrios was 22 and Festa is 24, but sure lets ignore that part of the equation.

I am not giving up on him, but his first two starts reminds me of Jax.

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Is anybody actually giving up on Festa?

Berrios was rough to start, no doubt, but he was also a much better prospect, with far better results in AA/AAA, and maybe most importantly he was debuting for a terrible team vs. one that is pushing for a postseason spot. 

You are correct... Berrios was the ranked #19 on the MLB prospect list in 2016.

2nd ranked on the Twins after Byron Buxton. He had some real nice numbers in AAA and AA. ERA below 3.00 on the farm in 2014 and 2015. Berrios was much more bally-hooed and deservedly so. 

All of that and he still struggled.

I believe Wabene is making that point. 

 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There is that small little thing that Berrios was 22 and Festa is 24, but sure lets ignore that part of the equation.

I am not giving up on him, but his first two starts reminds me of Jax.

Age. We all know that is the be all and end all for you. You've told us dozens or is it hundreds of times? In my two short sentences I did manage to mention age so how could I be ignoring it? SMH. The funny part is I added the age disclaimer to my little sentence with you in mind, 😂.

What I've learned from my post that included just two short sentences is if you are vague, people may fill in the blanks however they want, 😂 cracks me up.

Let me be more clear. I posted Berrios' struggles to simply remind people that they happen. I don't think Festa is anything like Berrios except they both throw baseballs for a living. I have no idea what the future holds for David Festa.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, wabene said:

Age. We all know that is the be all and end all for you. You've told us dozens or is it hundreds of times? In my two short sentences I did manage to mention age so how could I be ignoring it? SMH. 

What I've learned from my post that included just two short sentences is if you are vague, people may fill in the blanks however they want, 😂 cracks me up.

Let me be more clear. I posted Berrios' struggles to simply remind people that they happen. I don't think Festa is anything like Berrios except they both throw baseballs for a living. I have no idea what the future holds for David Festa.

I used age because the majority of the time it matters. It matters on how much of a leash a player is given, it matters because it also is a good tool (with other stats) on the a players future. You could have used many examples of pitchers that more closely resemble Festa (Sands, Winder, Jax , Ober and others) and his age, prospect ranking, and stuff, but you used one of the best pitching prospects the Twins have had in 10, 20, 30 years and one of the top pitching prospects in the minors? and wanted people  to ignore that fact or not read into that? I think it is obvious to everybody that reads this site knows that prospects can struggle, what you did isn't much different than the people that said EROD compares favorable to Juan Soto, when in reality it just isn't true and when you did this you had to know you would get push back on the comparison, and people pushing back on a back comparison doesn't belittle Festa at all, I believe we all want him to be the next Ryan, Ober, Kluber or any of  pitcher that profiles similar to him.

[LA Vikes Fan]

22 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't think Festa will (or should) get another start. His turn comes up Monday 7/8 in Chicago. With the off day next Thursday, we can pitch Ober today, next Tuesday, and again on Sunday the 14th. Then it's the ASB so it's only this one start next Monday we have to cover.  Paddack went on the 15 day IL on 6/25 so he isn't available until the 10th. The only obvious AAA on the 40 man answers are Caleb Boushley and Louie Varland. Boushley pitched last night (poorly, but was good until then), so he is on track for Monday. Varland is not pitching well in AAA so he would be a real crapshoot.  I would give Boushley a one game audition against the worst team in the AL to see if there's anything there. 

Festa has talent but he just isn't ready yet. Send him back down to work on his command. He'll be back and I would guess he's back this year unless we trade for another starter. 

Turns out I was wrong on Paddack. He went on the 15 day IL on 6/25, retroactive to 6/22. He is available to start next Monday. Festa is going down, expect a reliever for the weekend but only Varland and Winder are on the 40 man. Henriquez  hasn’t spent his 20 days yet in AAA. 
 

My guess is Varland up for the weekend in the Bullpen, maybe through the ASB. 

[stringer bell]

Festa’s pedigree is much more similar to Bailey Ober, a middle range draft choice coming out of college. His increased velo and success in the minors moved him up and got him ranked among top prospects. 
 

The success of developing Ober and Ryan have been huge in putting together the rotation and maintaining the quality of the staff. (I honestly don’t know how much credit the Twins should get for Ryan’s success—it could be shared with the Rays and with Ryan himself).

If Festa can have similar success as those two, then the Twins have another feather in their cap. Limiting walks isn’t the same as command. Festa put too many balls in good hitting spots and paid the price. The stuff looked okay to me, but far from dominant. 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Turns out I was wrong on Paddack. He went on the 15 day IL on 6/25, retroactive to 6/22. He is available to start next Monday. Festa is going down, expect a reliever for the weekend but only Varland and Winder are on the 40 man. Henriquez  hasn’t spent his 20 days yet in AAA. 
 

My guess is Varland up for the weekend in the Bullpen, maybe through the ASB. 

Varland pitched yesterday (poorly) for the Saints. Boushley pitched on Wednesday, also poorly. Of the on-roster guys, that leaves only Winder would be able to be recalled AFAIK. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Varland pitched yesterday (poorly) for the Saints. Boushley pitched on Wednesday, also poorly. Of the on-roster guys, that leaves only Winder would be able to be recalled AFAIK. 

Wow, that's ugly. I read that Festa was packing his bags Thursday to go down. Is this the return of Josh Winder (who has lousy AAA stats)? Are we calling up a position player like Wallner and going with a 7 man bullpen? Or, could it be that there's a trade in the works that will open up a 40 man spot? Should be interesting . . .

[LA Vikes Fan]

The verdict is in. Festa down, Josh Winder up. 

[KirbyDome89]

18 hours ago, wabene said:

Adding a little perspective and interest. I have not stated any opinion. Show me where I explicitly compared Festa to anyone. You make the point anyway by pointing out that Berrios was superior. If someone as pedigreed as Berrios can struggle anyone can.

Idk, I'd say that looping Berrios into a discussion about how much rope Festa should be given invites comparison, but YMMV. 

Again, I haven't seen anybody throw in the towel on Festa, or claim it's uncommon for a young player to struggle during their first taste of MLB. The argument you're making is a double edged sword. 

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You are correct... Berrios was the ranked #19 on the MLB prospect list in 2016.

2nd ranked on the Twins after Byron Buxton. He had some real nice numbers in AAA and AA. ERA below 3.00 on the farm in 2014 and 2015. Berrios was much more bally-hooed and deservedly so. 

All of that and he still struggled.

I believe Wabene is making that point. 

 

I get the point, but it's an argument fueled by survivor bias. 

[Linus]

As I posted after his first start he was going to have better command or he was going to get knocked around. This is particularly true on the fastball which has no movement to speak of. If that isn’t spotted with good command he is in trouble. Pretty similar story with the change as well. Obviously not giving up on him but as he stands right now - not a mlb caliber starter. Not saying it can’t happen but many people just assume success in the bigs because they had some success in the minors and it ain’t so. I truly hope I’m wrong but when I look at Festas  path i see Balazovic. Decent stuff with shaky command leading to erratic results. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I get the point, but it's an argument fueled by survivor bias. 

I am OK with that.

These young players are still trying to define what group they are classified into.