Is Glen Perkins the Twins greatest trade chip?

[old nurse]

So again, do you have anything to back up your assertion that signing free agents is worse than resigning players?

I looked at your list from the 20 largest contracts of which you highlighted 8. From that list of 8 my assertion was that it was more likely that an elite pitcher was more likely to resign with his old team than a new one. It had nothing to do with free agents in general. My other assertion was that it would be hard to find elite pitching on the free agent market. Again, that has nothing to do with free agents in general. Is that clear enough for you? I did not say one was better the other in this thread. If I said it somewhere else then go find it.

[drjim]

Oxtung - research or not I fail to see how advocating for more free agent signings is helped by citing extensions.

 

The large majority of good pitchers are locked up before free agency. That is why the supply is so low and costs so high.

[Mike Sixel]

Arguments no one has made:

 

The Twins should spend as much as the Yankees, or outbid them for lots of players

FA is the only way to build a team

Every FA will sign here, if only the Twins offer more money

Every team that spends money is guaranteed to win

The Twins never sign FAs of any kind

Every large contract works for every single year of that contract

The Twins are one piece away from winning it all, or even contending

The Twins should spend money to spend money

The Twins should have one of the 10 biggest payrolls in all of baseball

The Twins should spend more than they’ve ever spent this year

The Twins should try to sign 5 starting pitchers

FA is “the answer” and the only answer

The Twins should sign multiple big time free agents

[Monkeypaws]

You say these things like they're obvious and "facts".

 

When they're not.

 

Period.

 

Have you ever been to Detroit? What's the attracton?

 

Time for some helmet adjustment.

 

True, it's just my opinion. But it's based on years of observation.

 

Name me a top shelf free agent from outside the organization who signed with the Twins.

 

Then name me one who signed with the Twins when they weren't contenders.

 

I'll await your response.

 

As for Detroit, reigning AL champs, stacked rotation, likely to get to the post-season. You'll have a good chance to win with that team.

[Monkeypaws]

Sorry Mr. Monkeypaws, but your arguments have long been thrashed all over this forum, these aren't good points.

 

 

 

Two words: "Dollars and years". That's straight from the mouth of the Twins front office. Players don't make decisions on all these extraneous reasons - dollars and years decide it. If you want to disagree with people in the contract meetings, by all means. I'll defer to them and say all of this you list is irrelevant.

 

 

 

The day Ryan signs the equivalent of Jack Morris, I'll be the first to celebrate him all over this board. The problem is that he's has been vocal about disliking the price it would take to sign a contemporary version of Morris. i.e. elite pitching

 

Jack was 36, coming off 2 losing seasons, with an ERA approaching 5 when the Twins signed him. It was very typical Twins free-agent signing, taking a flier on a guy on the decline with a 1 year deal, not a "dollars and years" elite free agent signing.

[Mike Sixel]

do you know what they paid Morris, relative to his previous contracts? It was not bottom of the barrel shopping.....they paid for him to come here. They paid him more money that year than he had made at any point in his career at that time.

[kab21]

Keeping Perkins just is good business unless you are looking for perpetual rebuild mode and competing for BA's #1 farm system.

 

Right now the future of this team depends on developing or trading for starters. I hope they sign a legitimately good starter in FA in the next year or two but I'm not going to hold my breath and I hope they stay away from the Buehrle/Wilson/Jackson tier of pitchers. Just good enough to be really expensive but not good enough to actually be good.

 

If it means that we need to trade a guy like Perkins to land another really good SP'ing prospect then I'm okay with trading Perkins. If the Twins trade Perkins for the sake of trading him then I will be the first critic.

[diehardtwinsfan]

1) Uhh, yeah it was an option.

 

2) You saying "it wasn't going to work" doesn't necessarily make it so

 

No, it wasn't an option. Morneau is under contract. There was no choice to retain/not retain him. This isn't football where you cut the guy and the contract magically goes away. Morenau was here regardless. The question is what value the Twins could have gotten for him in a trade, and my guess is not enough to make it worth trading...

[Mike Sixel]

Jack Morris was the highest paid Twin when he was signed.....Jack Morris made 20% more than any other Twin. He made more than double the salary of all but 1 or 2 Twins the year he signed. It was not a bottom feeding deal....

[Monkeypaws]

do you know what they paid Morris, relative to his previous contracts? It was not bottom of the barrel shopping.....they paid for him to come here. They paid him more money that year than he had made at any point in his career at that time.

 

Sure, the money was good, but would you equate that signing to a multi-year deal for a guy in his prime like Greinke or Sanchez that are being trotted out in this thread?

[drjim]

Sure, the money was good, but would you equate that signing to a multi-year deal for a guy in his prime like Greinke or Sanchez that are being trotted out in this thread?

 

Plus it's not about the money, it's the years. Morris was a one year deal.

 

And the obvious other aspect is that Morris was signing with his hometown team. Might have swayed him in the type of contract he would take vis a vis Sanchez or Greinke.

[Mike Sixel]

Andy McPhail added legit free agents while GM. Those free agents were not cheap relative to other players. The point is that, ans nothing more. I was answering the poster that said signing Morris was just like Ryan's moves, nothing more

[snepp]

Morris was something like the 5th highest paid player in the entire game in '91. Could you imagine Ryan offering a free agent $22+ million for one year?

[old nurse]

Morris was something like the 5th highest paid player in the entire game in '91. Could you imagine Ryan offering a free agent $22+ million for one year?

2006 Twins needed an outfielder/DH and another SP so you only had to count on either Bonser or Liriano to develop and not both. Ryan signed an .800 OPS guy who essentially laid an egg with the Twins. Had Ryan signed a pitcher that year my answer would be yes. The following year they were making Pohlad money. They spent 4 mill on Ortiz and Ponson. They still made a 14 mill profit. That 18 mill could have been better spent to follow up on a very good team to have made it better. Is it Pohlad who never saw a dollar he did not like to keep, or is it Ryan? I think the Twins spent in 91 because McPhail bet on how good they could be and talked Pohlad into approving to spend the money. I don't think Ryan could do that.

[Shane Wahl]

Some need to be traded. I don't think any of them can get more than we got for Liriano. Maybe Burton. We might be able to buy prospects by sending cash with Willingham or Morneau. Plouffe probably has a better chance to be a useful major leaguer than anything we can get for him. I don't think Carroll has any value.

 

Leaving Carroll aside (value only for NL team in search of utility player), look at LF, 1B, C, 3B, and DH:

 

There is one team who has four sub-.700 OPS at these positions and the fifth is .709 (DH). Guess who it is? The New York Yankees. Their third base situation is a mess, catching and LF not much better. They are injured all over and have Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay holding it all together right now.

 

As far as the kind of player in return, I am not talking top 100 or even 200 prospect overall. I may blog about "What is a 'top prospect'?" later. I will also have to check on where Hernandez and Escobar ranked for the White Sox going into 2012.

[Twins Twerp]

Leaving Carroll aside (value only for NL team in search of utility player), look at LF, 1B, C, 3B, and DH:

 

There is one team who has four sub-.700 OPS at these positions and the fifth is .709 (DH). Guess who it is? The New York Yankees. Their third base situation is a mess, catching and LF not much better. They are injured all over and have Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay holding it all together right now.

 

As far as the kind of player in return, I am not talking top 100 or even 200 prospect overall. I may blog about "What is a 'top prospect'?" later. I will also have to check on where Hernandez and Escobar ranked for the White Sox going into 2012.

 

I want to say Hernandez was ranked number 20, in what you already may know is one of if not they worst farm system in the league.

[jorgenswest]

Leaving Carroll aside (value only for NL team in search of utility player), look at LF, 1B, C, 3B, and DH:

 

There is one team who has four sub-.700 OPS at these positions and the fifth is .709 (DH). Guess who it is? The New York Yankees. Their third base situation is a mess, catching and LF not much better. They are injured all over and have Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay holding it all together right now.

 

As far as the kind of player in return, I am not talking top 100 or even 200 prospect overall. I may blog about "What is a 'top prospect'?" later. I will also have to check on where Hernandez and Escobar ranked for the White Sox going into 2012.

 

The Yankees need to stay under luxury tax for next year so they would not take on a 2014 contract. They did get creative in the Wells deal that may be a possibility. Somehow Angels have 2014 burden.

 

I would be really surprised if they take Doumit. Jose Molina credits Girardi and the Yankees for his growth on framing pitches. They add catchers who do well in this area.

 

I am not sure our guys with their current contracts and lack of defensive skill are a good fit.

[chopper0080]

How about a trade with the Reds, a team that the Twins have some history and connection to?

 

While Cincy has no need for one of our SP dump-offs, they might very well find Perkins intriguing, he fits in perfectly with their RP expectations and would immediately become their best non-closer overall RP, 2nd best lefty RP option, best high-leverage option, alternative closer and cheap insurance to a potential Chapman breakdown.

 

The Reds bullpen is currently ranked a lowly 21st, and while their SP has put up good numbers, they are pretty much 6 inning guys. If they are motivated enough to make a big push in the competitive NL Central, would they be willing to unload a package for package deal that included 20 year old Robert Stephenson- currently A-ball level, but potential future front-end starter?

 

I would take Tony Cingrani off of their hands, but I am not sure what it would take.

[Shane Wahl]

The Yankees need to stay under luxury tax for next year so they would not take on a 2014 contract. They did get creative in the Wells deal that may be a possibility. Somehow Angels have 2014 burden.

 

I would be really surprised if they take Doumit. Jose Molina credits Girardi and the Yankees for his growth on framing pitches. They add catchers who do well in this area.

 

I am not sure our guys with their current contracts and lack of defensive skill are a good fit.

 

I don't think the $7 million owed to Willingham is that much to take on, but I don't know how much they have coming off the books.

[Shane Wahl]

I would take Tony Cingrani off of their hands, but I am not sure what it would take.

 

Cingrani would take another prospect with Perkins. Anyway, Perkins is making too much money to go somewhere to be a setup man, especially one same-handed as the actual closer.

[TheLeviathan]

Sure, the money was good, but would you equate that signing to a multi-year deal for a guy in his prime like Greinke or Sanchez that are being trotted out in this thread?

 

Maybe not, but it's still FAR more than the Twins have done by percentage. As I said, if they want to go invest in a starter that would instantly rival the pay of, say, Morneau (which is about the equivalent) - I'd applaud the hell out of that.

 

Fact is - Willingham is the best they've managed. And Ryan is public about loathing anything beyond three year deals. Which, for all intents and purposes, means we aren't playing with serious FA talent on the pitching side especially.

[Oxtung]

I looked at your list from the 20 largest contracts of which you highlighted 8. From that list of 8 my assertion was that it was more likely that an elite pitcher was more likely to resign with his old team than a new one. It had nothing to do with free agents in general. My other assertion was that it would be hard to find elite pitching on the free agent market. Again, that has nothing to do with free agents in general. Is that clear enough for you? I did not say one was better the other in this thread. If I said it somewhere else then go find it.

Oxtung - research or not I fail to see how advocating for more free agent signings is helped by citing extensions.

 

The large majority of good pitchers are locked up before free agency. That is why the supply is so low and costs so high.

 

I have no opinion or knowledge into how many elite pitchers choose FA over resigning with their original teams. Basing a claim off of 8 contracts out of the 40 or so that have been signed seems a little silly to me.

 

The cost for good pitchers is high no matter if they make it to FA or not. Verlander just resigned for $180M over 7 years, King Felix for $175M over 7 years and Greinke for $148 over 6 years. So the money seems to be the same either way for the elite pitchers.

 

Unless you two are suggesting that the elite pitchers that do make it to FA are more prone to injuries/poor pitching than their brethren that resign with their original franchise, then my point still stands. If you are saying that elite FA pitchers are riskier than pitchers that re-up with the same team then show some kind of analysis.

[drjim]

I have no opinion or knowledge into how many elite pitchers choose FA over resigning with their original teams. Basing a claim off of 8 contracts out of the 40 or so that have been signed seems a little silly to me.

 

The cost for good pitchers is high no matter if they make it to FA or not. Verlander just resigned for $180M over 7 years, King Felix for $175M over 7 years and Greinke for $148 over 6 years. So the money seems to be the same either way for the elite pitchers.

 

Unless you two are suggesting that the elite pitchers that do make it to FA are more prone to injuries/poor pitching than their brethren that resign with their original franchise, then my point still stands. If you are saying that elite FA pitchers are riskier than pitchers that re-up with the same team then show some kind of analysis.

 

I would suggest the best pitchers - ie those with the fewest question marks and an expectation to be good for several years - very rarely hit free agency in their prime years. Maybe one every 2 years.

 

So when you examine the biggest contracts for pitchers they will skew very heavily towards extensions with maybe 1 or 2 good free agents and the rest bad free agency overpays.

[Oxtung]

I would suggest the best pitchers - ie those with the fewest question marks and an expectation to be good for several years - very rarely hit free agency in their prime years. Maybe one every 2 years.

 

So when you examine the biggest contracts for pitchers they will skew very heavily towards extensions with maybe 1 or 2 good free agents and the rest bad free agency overpays.

 

There are very few elite pitchers available. I agree. If that has been your point all the way along then perhaps we're just talking past each other.

[The Wise One]

I have no opinion or knowledge into how many elite pitchers choose FA over resigning with their original teams. Basing a claim off of 8 contracts out of the 40 or so that have been signed seems a little silly to me.

 

The cost for good pitchers is high no matter if they make it to FA or not. Verlander just resigned for $180M over 7 years, King Felix for $175M over 7 years and Greinke for $148 over 6 years. So the money seems to be the same either way for the elite pitchers.

 

Unless you two are suggesting that the elite pitchers that do make it to FA are more prone to injuries/poor pitching than their brethren that resign with their original franchise, then my point still stands. If you are saying that elite FA pitchers are riskier than pitchers that re-up with the same team then show some kind of analysis.

 

You found with the 20 largest contracts that the highest paid pitchers in the last 13 years could pitch at an above average level most of the time. Thus you claim they are a wise investment? They are paid to be outstanding, not above average.

 

You compare outcomes of pitchers in their late 20's , which is when the extentions happen, and think that it should happen for pitcher's in their mid thirties. Brother that is not the same. But I will supose you will demand that I do an age comparison study.

[jokin]

There are very few elite pitchers available. I agree. If that has been your point all the way along then perhaps we're just talking past each other.

 

Hmmm, what an oddly and strangely unusual occurrence around here...

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would take Tony Cingrani off of their hands, but I am not sure what it would take.

 

Yes, I desperately want to figure out a way to make that work... Sadly, I think that's just a dream....

[jokin]

I have no opinion or knowledge into how many elite pitchers choose FA over resigning with their original teams. Basing a claim off of 8 contracts out of the 40 or so that have been signed seems a little silly to me.

 

The cost for good pitchers is high no matter if they make it to FA or not. Verlander just resigned for $180M over 7 years, King Felix for $175M over 7 years and Greinke for $148 over 6 years. So the money seems to be the same either way for the elite pitchers.

 

Unless you two are suggesting that the elite pitchers that do make it to FA are more prone to injuries/poor pitching than their brethren that resign with their original franchise, then my point still stands. If you are saying that elite FA pitchers are riskier than pitchers that re-up with the same team then show some kind of analysis.

 

They won't, because they can't. They are up on tip-toes on a tipsy 3-legged stool still convinced that a Zito-style signing is the death-knell to the Twins franchise.

[Oxtung]

You found with the 20 largest contracts that the highest paid pitchers in the last 13 years could pitch at an above average level most of the time. Thus you claim they are a wise investment? They are paid to be outstanding, not above average.

 

And they are elite 42% of the seasons. In fact 25% of the seasons have been ERA+ >140 which is fan-friggin-tastic. You show me a pitcher you can sign for 1 or 2 years that has a realistic chance at an elite season let alone a high probability of one. My definition of elite is an ERA+ >120.

 

Look, no one is saying that elite FA pitchers are going to be awesome every season. Everybody agrees that it is better to develop your own elite pitcher. Everyone agrees it is cheaper too, at least until they are looking for their payday. Just better all around. However the Twins don't have an elite pitcher. They haven't since Santana left. There are only have 2 in the entire minor league system who have a chance at becoming elite and one of those 2 was just drafted and is years away. So how do the Twins fill that role?

 

They have tried filling it by scraping the bottom of the barrel. In the last 15 years the Twins have gotten exactly 1 year of above average pitching from a pitcher acquired through FA. That was Pavano in 2010 with an ERA+ of 109. Several have been down right terrible.

 

So yes, signing an big FA has risks and not every season is going to be perfect. That 42% chance at an elite season is still a better risk than the almost pure dreck the Twins have signed.

 

You compare outcomes of pitchers in their late 20's , which is when the extentions happen, and think that it should happen for pitcher's in their mid thirties. Brother that is not the same. But I will supose you will demand that I do an age comparison study.

 

"Brother" can you show me where anyone is advocating signing anyone long term when they are in their mid-thirties? No? People were advocating for Greinke and Sanchez who are both 29 this season.

 

From my list earlier Halladay was 31 when he signed, Oswalt was 29, Buerhle was 29, Carpenter was 33, Dempster was 32 and Verlander was 27. Here's another one I didn't add earlier. CC Sabathia was 28 when he signed his 7 year contract. In the first 4 years his ERA+ is 135 and he is averaging 226 IP. He pitched so well in fact that the Yankees reworked his contract through to 2016.

[kab21]

Yes, I desperately want to figure out a way to make that work... Sadly, I think that's just a dream....

 

Cingrani wouldn't happen but this guy could Robert Stephenson » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

 

That's if the Reds were interested in adding a top setup man. It would be interesting having a lefty/lefty closer/setup combo. I consider this unlikely still but it's the kind of deal that you shoot for with Perkins.

 

btw - Perkins definitely does not make too much money to be a setup man.