The Big Question for the Minnesota Twins at DH: Alex Kirilloff's New Home

[Eric Blonigen]

I’m a big believer in AK’s bat. When healthy, he’s been an above-average hitter, and that’s been true from the low minors through his limited healthy time in the majors. Will he be a good - or even serviceable - 1B? Who knows. But, the Santana signing takes some pressure off him and sets him up to build defensive skill in a backup capacity while still getting him consistent ABs. I think there’s a real chance that as the regular DH, he might put up an .850 OPS which would definitely play. Is DH the future any of us hoped for? Probably not. But, he can still make a big impact. 

[darin617]

AK being DH simply opens up Julien to share 1st base with Santana and gives Brooks Lee a spot at second base.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Santana will play 1B against LHP because he hits lefties and Kirilloff struggles, and every once in a while if the DH spot is open vs RHP you might as well play Santana at 1B and DH Kirilloff because he's clearly not the potential Gold Glove defender that the Twins were hyping him up as 2-3 years ago.

The Twins aren't stupid enough to give Santana ABs vs righties when the platoon splits are this obvious and they have better LHB options on the bench. 

There isn't a great option for the ninth starter against right handed pitching and I think Santana will get a lot of playing time at least until someone emerges. It has been mentioned often that Buxton most likely will get some DH time and it is possible that other regulars will also occasionally DH. When this occurs, AK should get 1B time. I don't think Kirilloff profiles as a bad first baseman long term as I mentioned before he had neutral numbers in 2021-2022 and his skills shouldn't be diminished at his age.

[Eris]

20 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Big error in big game last year playoffs=big influence on perceptions of his D ability.

But he was playing hurt. It is not reasonable to assess his capabilities under those circumstances. More reasonable we could ask why was he playing when the team the team knew he would need surgery. 
 

His injury history is an important consideration. If you can’t pencil someone in the lineup 130 - 140 games a year his value goes down. A healthy Kirilloff is likely in the top 3 of Twins hitters ( after Lewis and Julien). 

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Santana will play 1B against LHP because he hits lefties and Kirilloff struggles, and every once in a while if the DH spot is open vs RHP you might as well play Santana at 1B and DH Kirilloff because he's clearly not the potential Gold Glove defender that the Twins were hyping him up as 2-3 years ago.

The Twins aren't stupid enough to give Santana ABs vs righties when the platoon splits are this obvious and they have better LHB options on the bench. 

You could be right because I have to wait like everyone else to see how Rocco deploys the troops. 

However... As things stand right now... I can't see Santana as a short side platoon candidate.  

Kirilloff/Santana does make a decent platoon combo. As does Julien/Farmer and Wallner/Margot. 

But if you lock into that... include the two catchers on the roster and the catching position - You will have 5 players left for the remaining 5 spots in the lineup. 

5 players who would have to face both righties and lefties. Those 5 players would be Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Kepler and Willi Castro. 

The first 4... we can all nod our head but the last one Willi Castro over Carlos Santana for a starting spot is something I can't see.

Castro has worse platoon splits than Santana does. Castro is significantly better against Right Handers so he isn't really a handcuff candidate.  

Again... you could be right and it will be interesting to see how Rocco does it. It sure looks like we are one player short if we want to short side Santana. 

   

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

There isn't a great option for the ninth starter against right handed pitching and I think Santana will get a lot of playing time at least until someone emerges. It has been mentioned often that Buxton most likely will get some DH time and it is possible that other regulars will also occasionally DH. When this occurs, AK should get 1B time. I don't think Kirilloff profiles as a bad first baseman long term as I mentioned before he had neutral numbers in 2021-2022 and his skills shouldn't be diminished at his age.

I'd put Willi Castro in the OF and Wallner or Buxton at DH ahead of Santana at 1B against right-handed pitching. 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I'd put Willi Castro in the OF and Wallner or Buxton at DH ahead of Santana at 1B against right-handed pitching. 

So would I, but I'm guessing we are going to see much more of Santana than Castro against right handed pitching. 

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

That was my thoughts also, Besides not having total trust in Santana, we need to look at the future & to raise Kiriloff's stock, stuck at DH won't do it. Kiriloff being rusty needs a lot of time at 1B that he won't get. In the long run signing Satana was a mistake. When Kiriloff & Miranda proves themselves there's a market for their services, MIA being one.

Do not understand the issue with signing Santana? He’s a perfect platoon guy with Kirilloff. He’s a very good defender at 1B……good enough for late inning defensive replacement. He’s not expensive. 300 plus career HR’s with 23 last year. It’s a one and done signing. ……..Kirilloff can’t “practice” 1B during games…….he’s got to work at it for hours on the side just like Julien has and continues to do. Hopefully, Santana can tutor him a bit as well.

I see Kirilloff as part of the Twins at 1B for another 3-4 years.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Like usual... your post is spot on. 

Being Limited to primarily DH work, Limited to facing Right Handed Pitchers, frequent health issues and Options Dwindling, are the confluence of 4 fairly big things that will get in the way of his future.  

To survive these 4 things, it would take an extraordinary performance at the plate that he hasn't demonstrated yet. 

Fortunately... for Alex... This vague guideline of "gloves play ahead of sticks" that Rocco made public will only last as long as the  context of the team allows it to continue. In other words... quoting Mike Tyson. "Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth". 

While Rocco is busy deploying the best gloves for games 1 through 20 on the schedule. Carlos Santana or someone will go on the DL and Kirilloff will find himself the best defensive option by process of elimination.

So... Alex Kirilloff will sit cold in the DH spot and wait... then all of sudden, Hey... Go get your glove... Need you now. Congrats you are now the best defensive option.  

And of course... the most ideal spot for this sudden need to spring to life will happen in late September.

Hey Alex... Playoffs start tomorrow. Santana is down for a month. Go get your glove... I know we have been afraid of your defense all year so we kept you at DH... But Hey... we need you know. There is rust remover in the bottom cabinet in the training room. Apply it liberally and evenly to that glove. Oh... And we believe in you... Always have.    

 

 

The guy hit .270 with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ in ‘23.
 

He doesn’t need options.

Hitting well v. RH pitching, primarily, isn’t unique to Kirilloff as a Left Handed bat. The Athletic did a Twins specific article couple weeks ago on the history of prominent Twins LH hitters. Oliva .690 OPS v. LH. Carew, only guy above .800 OPS v. LH pitching. Hrbek & Koskie were both around .775 or so. Bottom line was that due to how many left handed pitchers a LH faces as they develop (not many) they do not fare well as a rule………not a Wallner issue - not a Julien issue - not a Kirilloff issue.

He’s a Professional Athlete - he needs to excel at whatever the Team asks him to do. If they want him to play 1B in September, he’s got 5 1/2 months to get ready. Personally, I think he starts 80 games at 1B………..Buxton at DH & Kirilloff at 1B is a better approach offensively v. RH pitching!

[Otaknam]

AK may not be a gold glover at first but he’s not a butcher either, like Sano was.  I still think he will be a very productive player offensively if he stays healthy. 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The guy hit .270 with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ in ‘23.
 

He doesn’t need options.

Hitting well v. RH pitching, primarily, isn’t unique to Kirilloff as a Left Handed bat. The Athletic did a Twins specific article couple weeks ago on the history of prominent Twins LH hitters. Oliva .690 OPS v. LH. Carew, only guy above .800 OPS v. LH pitching. Hrbek & Koskie were both around .775 or so. Bottom line was that due to how many left handed pitchers a LH faces as they develop (not many) they do not fare well as a rule………not a Wallner issue - not a Julien issue - not a Kirilloff issue.

He’s a Professional Athlete - he needs to excel at whatever the Team asks him to do. If they want him to play 1B in September, he’s got 5 1/2 months to get ready. Personally, I think he starts 80 games at 1B………..Buxton at DH & Kirilloff at 1B is a better approach offensively v. RH pitching!

I believe Kirilloff was a fine hitter last year. I love the potential of his bat. I'm not trying to tear him apart. 

However, specialists have a shorter shelf life. If you keep adding conditions in order to make him valuable... his overall value is easily surpassed by others without such conditions.  

I understand the platoon split. I understand the large numbers of left against left over the history of baseball and I understand the small samples of a single player over a single season and everything in between. I understand how many right handers are employed vs how many left handers that are employed. I understand Hrbek, Carew, Oliva and Corey Koskie. 

This article has labelled Kirilloff has a DH. I responded to a Jocko post stating that "DH only doesn't bode well for his future". I agree with Jocko and my response was in support of Jocko when he said that "DH only doesn't bode well for his future". I added some thoughts to it. 

The addition of DH with minimized defensive work to: The already established conditions of not facing left handers, fairly frequent injury history and dwindling options are 4 things when happening in concert with each other doesn't suggest long career. Specialists have a shorter shelf life.  

Hey on the other hand... it's working for Joc Pederson as he bounces from the Dodgers, to the Cubs, to the Braves, to the Giants to the D-Backs. If Kirilloff is a special hitter doing the only thing he is allowed to do. He could also bounce around for a while with clubs like Joc does.

However, the reason Joc is bouncing, there is always going to be someone coming up from the minors who can play defense, hit against left and right handers stay healthy and make less money to take his job and force him to the next job where that guy isn't quite there yet... but that guy is always coming.  

I love Alex and his .793 OPS... It was a nice improvement over his .651 the year before. I think he is great hitter. However, I'm willing to bet that he won't be signing a multi year deal in the future, if the Twins continue to strip mine him for parts.  

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I believe Kirilloff was a fine hitter last year. I love the potential of his bat. I'm not trying to tear him apart. 

However, specialists have a shorter shelf life. If you keep adding conditions in order to make him valuable... his overall value is easily surpassed by others without such conditions.  

I understand the platoon split. I understand the large numbers of left against left over the history of baseball and I understand the small samples of a single player over a single season and everything in between. I understand how many right handers are employed vs how many left handers that are employed. I understand Hrbek, Carew, Oliva and Corey Koskie. 

This article has labelled Kirilloff has a DH. I responded to a Jocko post stating that "DH only doesn't bode well for his future". I agree with Jocko and my response was in support of Jocko when he said that "DH only doesn't bode well for his future". I added some thoughts to it. 

The addition of DH with minimized defensive work to: The already established conditions of not facing left handers, fairly frequent injury history and dwindling options are 4 things when happening in concert with each other doesn't suggest long career. Specialists have a shorter shelf life.  

Hey on the other hand... it's working for Joc Pederson as he bounces from the Dodgers, to the Cubs, to the Braves, to the Giants to the D-Backs. If Kirilloff is a special hitter doing the only thing he is allowed to do. He could also bounce around for a while with clubs like Joc does.

However, the reason Joc is bouncing, there is always going to be someone coming up from the minors who can play defense, hit against left and right handers stay healthy and make less money to take his job and force him to the next job where that guy isn't quite there yet... but that guy is always coming.  

I love Alex and his .793 OPS... It was a nice improvement over his .651 the year before. I think he is great hitter. However, I'm willing to bet that he won't be signing a multi year deal in the future, if the Twins continue to strip mine him for parts.  

Thanks Brian I think this scenario is the floor for Kirilloff. If so, he’s not a failure or bust, but not a success. The ceiling is still possible and I think he could be an All-Star. At two years plus of service time, I don’t think options are that important, but the three other knocks on AK need to be addressed if he is to become more than a corner platoon bat. 
 

Improved health, improved defense and more success against left handed pitching are all areas which need improvement to take the next step. I don’t expect AK to be available for all 162, have neutral splits and positive defensive metrics in one year, but notable improvement is needed for him to become someone the team is counting on and maybe building around. 

[Riverbrian]

43 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Thanks Brian I think this scenario is the floor for Kirilloff. If so, he’s not a failure or bust, but not a success. The ceiling is still possible and I think he could be an All-Star. At two years plus of service time, I don’t think options are that important, but the three other knocks on AK need to be addressed if he is to become more than a corner platoon bat. 
 

Improved health, improved defense and more success against left handed pitching are all areas which need improvement to take the next step. I don’t expect AK to be available for all 162, have neutral splits and positive defensive metrics in one year, but notable improvement is needed for him to become someone the team is counting on and maybe building around. 

I agree with you that options are not an issue YET. However... that could change on a dime and become an issue as soon as this off-season.

You are correct and I'll add to your correctness by also mentioning that that he is super-two so there is a possible 4th year of Arb in his future before he reaches free agency... if he makes it. He currently sits at 2.141 on the ole service time clock.

However, he may not see that 4th year of Arb in a Twins uniform because he currently stands with one little lonely option left in his back pocket.   

If he struggles this year and we can't assume that he won't because it's baseball and baseball happens. Just using Sano and Buxton for example because they made some surprise visits back to the farm to correct some things. If Alex needs to be sent down to fix something this year... or next year... it will burn his final option.

Once that last option is burned... he stands on the edge of the same cliff that Nick Gordon stood on, the same cliff that he would face each year of arbitration as his price tag rises. The same cliff he would face during his fifth year of service time should he make it that far. The same cliff that Eddie Rosario fell off when the Twins decided that Eddie wasn't worth what the arbitrators were going to award him. Eddie wasn't being strip mined to the degree that this article suggests by making Alex DH only, adding to not facing left handers and frequent injuries.  

Once he can't be sent down, once the raises start to kick in, once the cheaper replacements find there way North... his floor will be realized because he will be lying on that floor, calling his agent, looking at the ceiling that he can't reach. 

You turn Kirilloff into a DH only and limit his defensive work. The monster will be created from those spare parts. Fate sealed.  

 

 

  

 

[jkcarew]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Buxton most likely will get some DH time and it is possible that other regulars will also occasionally DH. When this occurs, AK should get 1B time.

I do anticipate that Kirilloff will start at 1B fairly often against right-handed pitching. I’d rather have Buxton resting than DH’ing in that scenario (if he isn’t in CF)…just put Castro or Farmer in and move Wallner or Julien to DH and be done with it.

[MGM4706]

Julien needs to be DH. His range is so limited at 2nd and he is horrible at turning the DP. Put Miranda at 2nd.