Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #3.5 Gabriel González, OF

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, roger said:

The number that stuck out to me was 535 plate appearances.  He played a lot of baseball last year.  Expect there were a few, but don't recall any of the better Twins prospects playing that much.

Assume that ERod will be #3.  In a direct comparison, how do they compare?  Would be great if one of the two becomes a very good player for the Twins a couple years from now. 

Just an FYI, but Lee had 567, Schobel 554, Keirsey 549, Ortega 537, Rosario 530, Severino 528, Fajardo 527, Miller 526. Those were the Twins prospects with over 500 PAs last year.

[Doctor Gast]

I like his arm & contact rate. Everybody likes his slugging rate for his age, thinking he'll continue to fill out & add power but with his height of 5'10, he's pretty much filled out & won't naturally gain much more power to profile at RF/1B or DH. I think a Willian Astudillo comp is fair although Astudillo is a better fielder. 

Because of the vast differences in style from the Twins, just like Rosario & Astudillo, I don't think they will be able to change him. Gonzalez is young enough to where he'd become confused & become worse especially in striking out. IMO Gonzalez's stock will fall harder than Salas did last year. It'd be hard to find a trade partner for him but I'd trade him as fast as I could to take advantage of his trade value.

[Cris E]

Plus the move to high A is when pitchers start improving too. You get some separation between the throwers and the pitchers, and guys are better able to exploit poor plate discipline. He'll be seeing better arms and need to lay off the stuff that can't be driven, so I hope he's a guy that can learn.  Perhaps our minor league staff learned their lesson with leaving Arreaz alone, and messing up Martin before leaving him alone, but the fact is it's not a lock that everyone makes that jump to plate discipline and a lot is rooted in a guy's willingness to listen and change. I don;t know anything about this guy, but I'm with @Doctor Gast and think he's as ranked about high as he'll ever be, so maybe move him on for something we need if any other org falls in love with him.

 

[Linus]

You can make a credible case for boom or bust here. I’m always a little concerned with guys who end up sliding down the defensive spectrum. IF (please note the if) he ends up being a first base DH type then the bar to clear for the bat gets pretty high. 

[DocBauer]

Sounds like he has a really good arm. If that's accurate, it helps make up some for a general lack of speed.

I would MUCH RATHER have a young kid who swings at everything but MAKES CONTACT rather than a kid who swings and misses a ton. Pure bat to ball skills are something that you seem to have or not have. But recognition and the ability to hold back on swinging at everything is a discipline issue, as much as a recognition issue, that I would hope comes with additional experience and maturity.

Personally, considering his contact ability and low K numbers, I'd almost like to see him hold up on some borderline pitches and "risk" taking them for strikes instead of popping out or hitting a slow roller to the 2B. That's not the contact we want, or that he needs. The power numbers would go up, along with the EV. 

Reigning in a young bat is not an awful "problem" to have.

[mikelink45]

He's a little slow, he swings at too many pitches, and he's poor defensively and yet we jump him to 3.5 before we even watch him play in our system. Wishful thinking. 

[DocBauer]

20 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

He's a little slow, he swings at too many pitches, and he's poor defensively and yet we jump him to 3.5 before we even watch him play in our system. Wishful thinking. 

I think I would have had him a couple spots lower than 3.5 simply because Raya and Festa are awfully good prospects. But I believe he was #3 with Seattle. He's on a pair of top 100 lists and is generally accepted as being a top 150 otherwise. That should equate to a top 10 ranking for the Twins, even though he's new to the organization. It's where he should be in that top 10 that I think is debatable.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, rv78 said:

González's calling card is his bat, so don't be surprised if he can unlock a new gear with the Twins' player development staff, who are known to accentuate hitting prospects' strengths.

 

Yes, that's why we have so many players at the major league level who hit .230 or less.

The claim was the player development staff accentuates hitting prospects' strengths. Lewis, Jeffers, Jiulien, and Wallner all came up through the Twins system, and they all hit well above .230 last year. Besides, accentuating prospects' strengths isn't necessarily batting average. Wallner hit .249, but that's not his strength as a hitter. His .877 OPS is primarily because of his power, which is his strength.

[Jocko87]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The description gives me Delmon Young flashbacks. If they can get him to be more selective they could have another Dan Ford. Looks like he has enough bat for CF and barely enough glove for LF.

Careful, we don't want to turn him into a Danny Goodwin.  Props for the extra deep pull, can you translate that into the 20th century? 

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

He's a little slow, he swings at too many pitches, and he's poor defensively and yet we jump him to 3.5 before we even watch him play in our system. Wishful thinking. 

He has been playing other baseball, on tape?  Our front office paid top 100 prospect prices for him sooo, the ranking is about right?  Just behind our other top 100 prospects probably would make sense.

I just love that he is still listed at 165 lbs.  Dudes 220 by the time he hits MLB.  Hopefully pure athleticism lets him stay in the outfield at that size.  He looks like a guy who will always have to manage the weight.  As many have mentioned, if he can't stick in the outfield the stick has to go like crazy.  The hitting bar for a 5'10 RH first baseman is crazy high.

I do like that they finally invested in a RH outfield bat.  They have a type, and this ain't it.  He swings wrong sided for them.  It seems like they have operated under the principle that they can grab a RH power OF bat whenever they need it but then seem to balk at the price when they have the chance.  They may be thinking we should develop one of our own so we can afford it.

[mikelink45]

9 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Careful, we don't want to turn him into a Danny Goodwin.  Props for the extra deep pull, can you translate that into the 20th century? 

He has been playing other baseball, on tape?  Our front office paid top 100 prospect prices for him sooo, the ranking is about right?  Just behind our other top 100 prospects probably would make sense.

I just love that he is still listed at 165 lbs.  Dudes 220 by the time he hits MLB.  Hopefully pure athleticism lets him stay in the outfield at that size.  He looks like a guy who will always have to manage the weight.  As many have mentioned, if he can't stick in the outfield the stick has to go like crazy.  The hitting bar for a 5'10 RH first baseman is crazy high.

I do like that they finally invested in a RH outfield bat.  They have a type, and this ain't it.  He swings wrong sided for them.  It seems like they have operated under the principle that they can grab a RH power OF bat whenever they need it but then seem to balk at the price when they have the chance.  They may be thinking we should develop one of our own so we can afford it.

Fine with everybody's evaluation of him. I just would have him down the list to begin the season. Top 10 is fine. Even five or six of what the shiny new toy is always of higher value at the beginning

[Scott51104]

Since no one has suggested this, I presume this is a bad idea.  But, when I look at his height, weight, comparative lack of speed (though much better than mine), and strong throwing arm, I think of a catcher.

[Danchat]

On 2/9/2024 at 3:54 PM, mikelink45 said:

He's a little slow, he swings at too many pitches, and he's poor defensively and yet we jump him to 3.5 before we even watch him play in our system. Wishful thinking. 

The kid is 19 and those issues can be ironed out - it's not as if we are talking about some prospect who is 23/24 years old and is close to debuting. There is still a lot of development time to go.

But in the same vein he probably is rated too highly because he's so far away.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

The kid is 19 and those issues can be ironed out - it's not as if we are talking about some prospect who is 23/24 years old and is close to debuting. There is still a lot of development time to go.

But in the same vein he probably is rated too highly because he's so far away.

Your final comment agrees with what I wanted to say. I don't want to be rated, I just don't think we immediately put him in the top five

[Finlander]

Hmm. A hitter who doesn't strike out much, and can hit balls hard in or out of the zone. Until his numbers nosedive, I'm not sure I'd mess with him much yet. This sounds like someone who could drive opposing pitchers nuts.

I seem to recall a couple of players with "see the ball, hit the ball" approach, named Oliva and Puckett. They did okay.

Having ten SB doesn't scream useless runner at me either. I'll be interested in his fielding routes for balls hit to the OF. He's gonna be fun to watch this year - I hope he's not moved.