The Table Setter, Jan. 12, 2024: Arbitration Record

[Cody Christie]

Thursday’s big news surrounded MLB teams exchanging numbers with arbitration-eligible players. So, what stood out from the Twins’ totals, and could the club avoid an arbitration hearing with all their eligible players?

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have seven arbitration-eligible players in 2024, including Caleb Thielbar, Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, Jorge Alcala, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, and Nick Gordon. MLB Trade Rumors estimated the group to earn $18.8 million next season, with Farmer’s $6.6 million estimated contract accounting for over one-third of that total. Minnesota is actively shopping veteran players on the roster, and Farmer fits this player type. His projected salary for a backup infielder is inflated, especially on a team cutting payroll. So, how did things pan out with the arbitration process?

Minnesota agreed to deals with Thielbar ($3.225 million), Jeffers ($2.425 million), Alcala ($790,000), and Kirilloff ($1.35 million). Other deals for Farmer, Castro, and Gordon weren’t reported until after the deadline. In total, Minnesota avoided arbitration with six of their seven players. MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park reported that Farmer agreed to a $6.05 million deal with a $6.25 million mutual option for 2025 with a $250,000 buyout. Alcala’s deal includes a $1.5 million club option for 2025 with a $55,000 buyout. 

Gordon was the lone player who failed to agree with the team. According to the Star Tribune’s Bobby Nintengale, the Twins could be headed to an arbitration hearing with Gordon. MLBTR estimated Gordon would get $1 million through arbitration, so it will be interesting to see the numbers from both the team and the player. 

Juan Soto Sets Arbitration Record
Soto has made plenty of headlines this winter as his name swirled in the trade rumor mill before being acquired by the Yankees in a blockbuster deal. He was entering his final year of arbitration eligibility as a 25-year-old and was set for a big payday. Soto and New York agreed to terms on a one-year, $31 million contract to avoid arbitration. It is a new record for an arbitration-eligible player as he topped the one-year, $30 million contract given to Shohei Ohtani last season. Soto is set to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign and has a chance to be given one of the largest contracts in baseball history. 

Mauer HOF Update
Joe Mauer is sitting in a good spot when it comes to his first shot at being elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. With an estimated 40% of the ballots revealed, Mauer has been named on 84.1%, the second-highest total for any candidate this year. To be elected, Mauer needs to finish with 75% or more of the vote. He continues to do well because his resume suits both new- and old-school voting styles. An argument can also be made that he was the best catcher of his era compared to the other top catchers, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. The voting results for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced on January 23rd, airing on MLB Network at 5 p.m. CT. 

What stood out to you from this year’s arbitration numbers? How do you feel about Mauer’s chances for the HOF? Leave a COMMENT and start the conversation. 

 

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[IndianaTwin]

Gordon: I've read that "multiple reports" say they could be headed to arbitration. How many of the "multiple reports" were people reporting on the original reporting? If they are indeed at $1.25M and $990,000, it seems doubtful to me that they won't settle in the middle. It's a difference of only $260,000, not worth upsetting a player over. 

Mauer: Mauer is approaching lock status for selection. He's at 83.7 percent through 153 ballots, so he's got some cushion in the bank. He only needs to get 69.3 percent the rest of the way. It's pretty rare to have someone drop by 14.4 percent in the public to private comparison. But unlike Ted, I don't think he'll stay close to 84 percent. Though he won't have the PED drop like Pudge, I suspect he'll still have a larger-than-average drop because of the "I don't want to vote for him because he spent too much time at 1b, but I'm not going to admit that publicly" crowd.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Gordon: I've read that "multiple reports" say they could be headed to arbitration. How many of the "multiple reports" were people reporting on the original reporting? If they are indeed at $1.25M and $990,000, it seems doubtful to me that they won't settle in the middle. It's a difference of only $260,000, not worth upsetting a player over. 

Mauer: Mauer is approaching lock status for selection. He's at 83.7 percent through 153 ballots, so he's got some cushion in the bank. He only needs to get 69.3 percent the rest of the way. It's pretty rare to have someone drop by 14.4 percent in the public to private comparison. But unlike Ted, I don't think he'll stay close to 84 percent. Though he won't have the PED drop like Pudge, I suspect he'll still have a larger-than-average drop because of the "I don't want to vote for him because he spent too much time at 1b, but I'm not going to admit that publicly" crowd.

I'd expect a larger vote drop from the "I dont want to vote for him because its his 1st time on the ballot" crowd

[stringer bell]

From what I can tell, everyone can be expected to see their vote percentage drop. I've seen a couple of in the know types that think a candidate over 80% when the public ballots are counted has a excellent chance of getting elected. Mauer has done surprisingly well and looks like a lock this year and for sure next year. Helton has gained very little from last year when he came 11 ballots short. Wagner and Sheffield need to get a lot of last-chance votes, even though Wagner has another year. 

[Old fox]

I feel comfortable that Mauer will make the HOF.  Gordon will settle for what the arbitrator decides.

[minman1982]

Gordon and the Twins will work something out. They are only $260,000 apart, which is not a lot of money when you are talking MLB payroll. They should tell Gordon that they would love to have him back for $1.05M plus some performance incentives that can get him to $1.25M. That pretty much splits to difference between where the Twins are and what Gordon wants and gives him the chance to go out and earn the last $200K. 

As for Mauer, a year ago, I would have said he might get in the Hall of Fame someday. A month ago, I would have said he will get in the Hall of Fame but not on the first ballot. Now, I am pleasantly surprised that it is looking more and more likely that he will get elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot.

For the old school voters, it is hard to argue against three batting titles and an MVP award as a catcher. For reference, the only other catchers to win a batting title and MVP are Hall of Famer Ernie Lombardi who won two batting titles and an MVP and Buster Posey who won a batting title and an MVP. Also, the hometown kid turned first overall pick turned superstar is a great story.

For the new school voters, compared with other catchers in MLB history, Mauer is 9th in WAR, 5th in WAR for his best seven seasons (right between a couple of no names Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra), 12th in Wins above Average, 7th in JAWS score, etc. He is a better than the average catcher in the Hall of Fame in most of the new metrics and matches up well with other Hall of Fame catchers.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, minman1982 said:

Gordon and the Twins will work something out. They are only $260,000 apart, which is not a lot of money when you are talking MLB payroll. They should tell Gordon that they would love to have him back for $1.05M plus some performance incentives that can get him to $1.25M. That pretty much splits to difference between where the Twins are and what Gordon wants and gives him the chance to go out and earn the last $200K. 

As for Mauer, a year ago, I would have said he might get in the Hall of Fame someday. A month ago, I would have said he will get in the Hall of Fame but not on the first ballot. Now, I am pleasantly surprised that it is looking more and more likely that he will get elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot.

For the old school voters, it is hard to argue against three batting titles and an MVP award as a catcher. For reference, the only other catchers to win a batting title and MVP are Hall of Famer Ernie Lombardi who won two batting titles and an MVP and Buster Posey who won a batting title and an MVP. Also, the hometown kid turned first overall pick turned superstar is a great story.

For the new school voters, compared with other catchers in MLB history, Mauer is 9th in WAR, 5th in WAR for his best seven seasons (right between a couple of no names Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra), 12th in Wins above Average, 7th in JAWS score, etc. He is a better than the average catcher in the Hall of Fame in most of the new metrics and matches up well with other Hall of Fame catchers.

Longevity is the only possible strike for Mauer but it seems he’s overcoming that in the early vote. His stats glow compared to others at his position as you point out. There is one other catcher prior to Lombardi in 1926 to win the batting title. Mauer has 3 of the 7……pretty good.

100% on the Gordon situation.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Longevity is the only possible strike for Mauer but it seems he’s overcoming that in the early vote. His stats glow compared to others at his position as you point out. There is one other catcher prior to Lombardi in 1926 to win the batting title. Mauer has 3 of the 7……pretty good.

Mauer was a catcher for only seven plus years. It appears he is being considered as a catcher and that makes his path much, much easier. Dare I dream of Mauer, Jack, Winnie and Molitor all alive and in the Hall? St. Paul can be proud.

[Jeff K]

Very happy to see the results thus far for Mauer.  As for Gordon, if I were the Twins, I would stick pretty close to their proposed number.  The delta is not that great; however, Gordon was terrible before his injury and his role with the Twins has more competition than two years ago.

[Heymel]

Now that arb is settled, except for Gordon, where does the Twins payroll stand? Even cutting to 125MM they should have 15-20MM to spend, more if they move, Kep, Polo, or Farmer.