Five Remaining Free-Agent Fits For The Twins

[DocBauer]

The FO has been ties to Stroman previously and really liked him. I don't think he's washed up, but he's gotten older, and didn't finish 2023 very well. I could only see a cheap 1yr if he doesn't get what he wants.

I just keep thinking about a Castillo trade, or signing Montgomery...previously mentioned...who sits around $20-23M. Polanco goes to Seattle, OR, if Montgomery WERE signed, you're only adding around $11-13M for 2024. But I am also concerned about that 2025 payroll down the road.

Hoskins only works if Kepler is moved.

Duvall on an inexpensive 1yr works as a 4th OF. 

I can get on board for Brebbia. Solid, proven, veteran middle arm. But what's the cost? SP has to be figured out first.

[notoriousgod71]

They should probably think about resigning Taylor since they'll need a starter once Buxton is inevitably hurt.

[AlwaysinModeration]

How about they sign Sean Manaea?  One thing I’ll note that these guys have in common:

Lopez-Ryan-Ober-Paddack-Varland-Woods-Richardson - Festa - Canterino - Raya….

…All right handed.  Only lefties of note are Prielipp.and Headrick.

[kenneth frank]

Dream on. The best this organization is going to do is sign a cheap and wild righthanded relief pitcher. This is exciting :(

[Beast]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Moving Kepler and/or Polanco without a significant return would weaken the team quite a bit. 

I would love for the Twins to sign Montgomery (or Snell), but these type of large money, long term deals for free agent pitchers is a near zero chance for the Twins by practice and design. Removing money from the roster doesn't change the thought process in my opinion, but I do agree that adding either Monty or Snell would be nice. We just don't know if the Twins are looking to use a roster budget of $100-125 this year and going forward. A guy like John Brebbia might help. If there is $12-15M available, Rhys Hoskins would be a sweet addition, but again .... money.

$100-$125 million?  Fans should boycott if that’s the budget.  Probably will be a lot that do naturally because the product will be unwatchable.

I don’t care what the TV deal is.  That’s how you get a dead-ass team, and only a handful of dead-ass fans in an empty stadium.

Why fans just accept this as “Oh well, Ownership needs to make theirs too,” is so strange to me.  Any other business on the planet refuses to take a risk by investing in a quality product people don’t buy the product.  And shouldn’t. Here, they’re lauded.

I just don’t get how more aren’t fed up with this ownership group treating the team like their personal annuity fund, while the Blue Jays (no better market than here) were just about to spend $700M on Ohtani.  A bigger lie has never been perpetrated, and believed, by a customer base than what we’re seeing here.  This is not necessary.

[rv78]

So far the FO has made moves that don't move the needle. With the loss of Gray and Maeda they have gone backwards. Meanwhile other teams continue to take the cream of the crop. Nothing new here. It is the way this FO operates. A small playoff success last year has them thinking they are doing things the right way. Falvine has been in charge for 7 seasons going on 8 and have 3 playoff victories as their major accomplishments. Think about that for a minute. These guys continue to operate the same way each year thinking it works when it obviously doesn't. In past years we've been told they had plenty of dollars at their disposal to improve the team but always bypassed the expensive Free Agents in favor of trading away players, even batting champions (Arraez), for players of need (Lopez). Now we are told they need to trim the budget. The chance of them signing any significant Free Agent WILL NOT HAPPEN. They didn't do it when they had an almost unlimited payroll, why do any of you think it will happen when they are trimming payroll. It is ridiculous and insane to continue to think it will happen. The Twins are a 2nd or even 3rd tier team. Always have been, always will be. It's in their DNA and without a major change in ownership it won't change. They aren't going to spend like the Dodgers or Yankees even if they could. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, weneedneshek said:

Contract predictions for Montgomery are between 20-25 million annually. How is that not in the realm of possibility if Kepler/Polanco are moved?

Pretty sure he’ll be at or north of $25M! ……don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor! 5 years for $22M - $25M - $27M - $27M - $27M with player option for year 4 & 5 to let him leave & explore the market at that point, to stroke his ego. We’ll have about an 85% chance of paying him through 5 years but he’s an awfully valuable guy.

Trade Polanco….$10.5M in ‘24 freed up.  Farmer gone in ‘25 - Kepler gone in ‘25 ………frees up additional $18M. Amend the budget back to $150M in ‘25 from the $135M this year with some secured broadcast deal.

Don’t see the Montgomery deal happening but it seems this type of budgeting allows for a deal with Clevinger for 2yrs at $14M/yr & a player option for the 2nd year.

Buxton isn’t going anywhere so the other FA signings to possibly be a DH aren’t going to fly - Julien’s best position is still DH as well. I think the “position spots” are covered internally. The only “affordable RH bat” as insurance for Miranda’s hitting, is Solano.

[TopGunn#22]

Great post Lou !  Interesting players to consider and good comments.  I'm in agreement with Doc Bauer and I've made several posts regarding going after Luis Castillo.  If you approach this thinking that we have a massive hole in our rotation with the departure of Sonny Gray why not make a blockbuster move and acquire the pitcher who was always considered his superior in every way in Cincinnati.  Castillo would be our #1 pushing Lopez to #2.  

If the Twins are going to give up Kepler or Polanco, we all agree it has to be for a player of consequence.  Why not Castillo?  I think Seattle is willing to deal him.  They just traded Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger (welcome home Mitch) and Anthony DeSclafani.  Getting DeSclafani is key here.  He's a back of the rotation piece and depth in case they DO trade Castillo. 

A trade of Kepler AND Polanco with a prospect like Prielipp included would net Seattle about a $4 million cut in payroll.  Is that enough for them?  Or would they want one of Kepler and Polanco and a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez to save more like $14 million?  For the Twins, acquiring a pitcher of Castillo's talent and only adding $4 million to the payroll would be tremendous.  I'll say this again:  The Twins won the division last year and in 2020 because of pitching.  We have young emerging hitters and it's reasonable to expect a better offensive year out of Correa and even Buxton (it couldn't be any worse than 2023).  If we pitch, we're in every game.  Castillo would be a tremendous addition for 2024 and beyond.

Duval is someone I've mentioned before, but $8 million seems a bit high for him.  No-at that price.  Soler would be a great RH power bat, but anyone who has been primarily a DH isn't a fit with Buxton on the roster.  If our DH spot was wide open, 550 AB's for Soler there would be fine.

Stroman, to me, seems too expensive even at a lower price.  I would prefer Castillo (obviously) or even a cheaper Trevor Bauer.  I'm not a big fan of one-year contracts because I prefer cost certainty going forward and if it works, you're just dealing with they same problem one year later.  But in specific circumstances they work.  One year of Bauer would allow one additional year of growth for Louie Varland, David Festa, Marco Raya, as well as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  It would also allow the Twins to use Varland in the bullpen and for spot starts.  Maybe 100 innings.  Varland in the pen means you have no need for Brebbia (especially with the Staumont signing).

I like Hoskins, but would like to see the Kirilloff/Miranda development continue.  

Brebbia is O.K. but a middle man in the bullpen shouldn't be anywhere near a priority over SP and CF.

I'll conclude with one more thought.  A day or two ago, I mentioned my frustration with the self-imposed salary cut the Twins are imposing.  I mentioned how shrewd a move would be if the Twins made a trade with Miami for Sandy Alcantara and had the patience to wait for him to pitch in 2025.  Now we see the Giants making a deal for Robbie Ray KNOWING he can't pitch until at least the All Star break.  The Giants are either incredibly desperate, or smart like a fox.  They got a LH former Cy Young Award starting pitcher in a deal for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSlafani !!  

Imagine if the Twins were able to get Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins for Trevor Larnach and Christian Vasquez?  Alcantara has a VERY favorable contract based on his ability and what the market for pitching would be going forward. ($9 million in 2024, $17 million in 2025 & 2026).  I'm not suggesting a rotation of Castillo, Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack for 2025 am I??  Well, maybe I am.  But $9 million for Alcantara to rehab for 2024 and $17 million for the next two years sure seems smart like a fox to me. 

Truthfully, acquiring BOTH Castillo and Alcantara is NOT realistic.  But one of them SHOULD be.  Our young hitters will be affordable for a couple more years.  We've got one or two years before Ryan and Ober start to stretch the budget.  If you didn't have to assume a maximum payroll of $125 million the Twins could do some really creative and exciting things.   

[jmlease1]

If Stroman is available for a 2-year deal I'd grab him in a heartbeat. No, he didn't finish the season well for the Cubs last year, but that looks injury-related, so if he's healthy I suspect he'll do fine. Twins have shown success in managing pitchers whose workloads need to be monitored and he's a quality starter when healthy and would raise the ceiling on the rotation instead of just the floor.

The position players are harder for me to judge, because unless and until a trade is made...not much room on this roster.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Great post Lou !  Interesting players to consider and good comments.  I'm in agreement with Doc Bauer and I've made several posts regarding going after Luis Castillo.  If you approach this thinking that we have a massive hole in our rotation with the departure of Sonny Gray why not make a blockbuster move and acquire the pitcher who was always considered his superior in every way in Cincinnati.  Castillo would be our #1 pushing Lopez to #2.  

If the Twins are going to give up Kepler or Polanco, we all agree it has to be for a player of consequence.  Why not Castillo?  I think Seattle is willing to deal him.  They just traded Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger (welcome home Mitch) and Anthony DeSclafani.  Getting DeSclafani is key here.  He's a back of the rotation piece and depth in case they DO trade Castillo. 

A trade of Kepler AND Polanco with a prospect like Prielipp included would net Seattle about a $4 million cut in payroll.  Is that enough for them?  Or would they want one of Kepler and Polanco and a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez to save more like $14 million?  For the Twins, acquiring a pitcher of Castillo's talent and only adding $4 million to the payroll would be tremendous.  I'll say this again:  The Twins won the division last year and in 2020 because of pitching.  We have young emerging hitters and it's reasonable to expect a better offensive year out of Correa and even Buxton (it couldn't be any worse than 2023).  If we pitch, we're in every game.  Castillo would be a tremendous addition for 2024 and beyond.

Duval is someone I've mentioned before, but $8 million seems a bit high for him.  No-at that price.  Soler would be a great RH power bat, but anyone who has been primarily a DH isn't a fit with Buxton on the roster.  If our DH spot was wide open, 550 AB's for Soler there would be fine.

Stroman, to me, seems too expensive even at a lower price.  I would prefer Castillo (obviously) or even a cheaper Trevor Bauer.  I'm not a big fan of one-year contracts because I prefer cost certainty going forward and if it works, you're just dealing with they same problem one year later.  But in specific circumstances they work.  One year of Bauer would allow one additional year of growth for Louie Varland, David Festa, Marco Raya, as well as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  It would also allow the Twins to use Varland in the bullpen and for spot starts.  Maybe 100 innings.  Varland in the pen means you have no need for Brebbia (especially with the Staumont signing).

I like Hoskins, but would like to see the Kirilloff/Miranda development continue.  

Brebbia is O.K. but a middle man in the bullpen shouldn't be anywhere near a priority over SP and CF.

I'll conclude with one more thought.  A day or two ago, I mentioned my frustration with the self-imposed salary cut the Twins are imposing.  I mentioned how shrewd a move would be if the Twins made a trade with Miami for Sandy Alcantara and had the patience to wait for him to pitch in 2025.  Now we see the Giants making a deal for Robbie Ray KNOWING he can't pitch until at least the All Star break.  The Giants are either incredibly desperate, or smart like a fox.  They got a LH former Cy Young Award starting pitcher in a deal for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSlafani !!  

Imagine if the Twins were able to get Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins for Trevor Larnach and Christian Vasquez?  Alcantara has a VERY favorable contract based on his ability and what the market for pitching would be going forward. ($9 million in 2024, $17 million in 2025 & 2026).  I'm not suggesting a rotation of Castillo, Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack for 2025 am I??  Well, maybe I am.  But $9 million for Alcantara to rehab for 2024 and $17 million for the next two years sure seems smart like a fox to me. 

Truthfully, acquiring BOTH Castillo and Alcantara is NOT realistic.  But one of them SHOULD be.  Our young hitters will be affordable for a couple more years.  We've got one or two years before Ryan and Ober start to stretch the budget.  If you didn't have to assume a maximum payroll of $125 million the Twins could do some really creative and exciting things.   

We can’t come up with enough trade pieces to land Luzardo but Polanco & Rodriguez will net us Castillo?????

Alcantara is young and a Cy Young winner that is just as inexpensive for the Marlins as he is for anyone else. His value, just like Robbie Ray, is down right now due to the surgeries and unknown performance/durability when coming back.

The Mariners have a bunch of young arms and are lead by Castillo. They went through ‘23 & got 3 innings out of Ray. He’s not available until 2nd half of this year & he’s expensive. He’s essentially a non-contributor & not worth paying with the young depth they have on hand. They got rid of his salary - got a depth arm - got a platoon OF they can pair with Raley when he arrives from Tampa.

To me Raley going to Seattle (big guy, that bats LH & plays OF) eliminates any desire they may have had for Kepler.

Lopez was 3rd in baseball in strikeouts & 23rd in ERA & am assuming top 10 in innings pitched. He had two different lights out games in the playoffs. He’s a top 15 starter in the game - no doubt! Underestimated by many.

IMO, Twins fans are spoiled after one year of the rotation having the best ERA. It seems everyone thinks they should have half dozen guys with ERA’s under 4.00. We’re all used to having a really good chance every day, after ‘23, based on who is starting - this is highly unusual for a rotation! I certainly think we should aspire to get as good as we can get - I love Castillo (I live in Cincinnati) & wanted a bigger push for him when Mahle was acquired…….. Don’t have any desire to trade for a guy who is out for a year in Alcantara while he will be re-habbing and HOPING to be a top flight arm again someday.

Many potential paths to get better - hope we can land an arm!

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Great post Lou !  Interesting players to consider and good comments.  I'm in agreement with Doc Bauer and I've made several posts regarding going after Luis Castillo.  If you approach this thinking that we have a massive hole in our rotation with the departure of Sonny Gray why not make a blockbuster move and acquire the pitcher who was always considered his superior in every way in Cincinnati.  Castillo would be our #1 pushing Lopez to #2.  

If the Twins are going to give up Kepler or Polanco, we all agree it has to be for a player of consequence.  Why not Castillo?  I think Seattle is willing to deal him.  They just traded Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger (welcome home Mitch) and Anthony DeSclafani.  Getting DeSclafani is key here.  He's a back of the rotation piece and depth in case they DO trade Castillo. 

A trade of Kepler AND Polanco with a prospect like Prielipp included would net Seattle about a $4 million cut in payroll.  Is that enough for them?  Or would they want one of Kepler and Polanco and a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez to save more like $14 million?  For the Twins, acquiring a pitcher of Castillo's talent and only adding $4 million to the payroll would be tremendous.  I'll say this again:  The Twins won the division last year and in 2020 because of pitching.  We have young emerging hitters and it's reasonable to expect a better offensive year out of Correa and even Buxton (it couldn't be any worse than 2023).  If we pitch, we're in every game.  Castillo would be a tremendous addition for 2024 and beyond.

Duval is someone I've mentioned before, but $8 million seems a bit high for him.  No-at that price.  Soler would be a great RH power bat, but anyone who has been primarily a DH isn't a fit with Buxton on the roster.  If our DH spot was wide open, 550 AB's for Soler there would be fine.

Stroman, to me, seems too expensive even at a lower price.  I would prefer Castillo (obviously) or even a cheaper Trevor Bauer.  I'm not a big fan of one-year contracts because I prefer cost certainty going forward and if it works, you're just dealing with they same problem one year later.  But in specific circumstances they work.  One year of Bauer would allow one additional year of growth for Louie Varland, David Festa, Marco Raya, as well as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  It would also allow the Twins to use Varland in the bullpen and for spot starts.  Maybe 100 innings.  Varland in the pen means you have no need for Brebbia (especially with the Staumont signing).

I like Hoskins, but would like to see the Kirilloff/Miranda development continue.  

Brebbia is O.K. but a middle man in the bullpen shouldn't be anywhere near a priority over SP and CF.

I'll conclude with one more thought.  A day or two ago, I mentioned my frustration with the self-imposed salary cut the Twins are imposing.  I mentioned how shrewd a move would be if the Twins made a trade with Miami for Sandy Alcantara and had the patience to wait for him to pitch in 2025.  Now we see the Giants making a deal for Robbie Ray KNOWING he can't pitch until at least the All Star break.  The Giants are either incredibly desperate, or smart like a fox.  They got a LH former Cy Young Award starting pitcher in a deal for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSlafani !!  

Imagine if the Twins were able to get Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins for Trevor Larnach and Christian Vasquez?  Alcantara has a VERY favorable contract based on his ability and what the market for pitching would be going forward. ($9 million in 2024, $17 million in 2025 & 2026).  I'm not suggesting a rotation of Castillo, Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack for 2025 am I??  Well, maybe I am.  But $9 million for Alcantara to rehab for 2024 and $17 million for the next two years sure seems smart like a fox to me. 

Truthfully, acquiring BOTH Castillo and Alcantara is NOT realistic.  But one of them SHOULD be.  Our young hitters will be affordable for a couple more years.  We've got one or two years before Ryan and Ober start to stretch the budget.  If you didn't have to assume a maximum payroll of $125 million the Twins could do some really creative and exciting things.   

Alcantara, former Cy Young winner in his mid-twenties, for Vazquez & Larnach…………we would need to add another 2-3 guys, plus pay 40% of Vazquez’ salary.

[TopGunn#22]

JD, you make good points, but I would counter that Ray has much greater value than what the Giants gave up for him simply because he will only be available for half of the coming season and the Giants are clearly banking on having him longer.  The Mariners have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller and DeSlcafani in addition to Emerson Hancock.  They have been linked to Blake Snell as he is a Seattle native. 

They are cutting costs so it's not unreasonable to speculate that they may be open to trading Castillo as much to cut $24 million in payroll as it is open up a spot for Snell.  I agree, the acquisition of Raley probably means they are out on Kepler.  But a trade of Polanco and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Castillo, or a deal straight up for Julien is not unreasonable either.  I'm not downplaying Lopez.  Rather, I'm highlighting what a tremendous rotation the Twins would have with BOTH.  

There are certainly shortcomings with the trade simulator of Baseball Trade Values but for the vast majority of us who don't really have a clue how baseball front offices truly value their assets it's at least a starting point.  Miami thinks they can contend for a Wild Card because they also have great pitching depth.  Alcantara is missing the entire season.  His "value" at present is -39.1 (that's Negative 39.1).  Luzardo's value is +63.3.  Alcantara's value has never been, nor will it ever be as low as it is, because not only is he missing 2024 but there's no guarantee he will make it back to the level he pitched at previously.  Does Miami have the "patience" to wait for him.  I've outlined how the Twins, in the early 70's didn't have the patience to wait for Jim Kaat and Luis Tiant and it cost them.

I think it's a gamble worth taking.  Miami needs a catcher, and Vasquez is is only a negative 10 in value and Larnach is a plus 3.6.  Flawed as BBTV may be, it's a vast overpay for the Twins.  I would even be willing to trade Polanco to Miami straight up, an even greater overpay.  Polanco's $10 million dollar salary for 2024 is a one-million dollar surplus to Alcantara's.  Miami adds a solid, switch hitting bat to their lineup for a player who isn't available for 2024.  How would Miami feel about that?

In the end, we're all just 12-year old boys trading baseball cards.  The Twins FO doesn't read Twins Daily and say "You know, that TopGunn#22 guy sure has some GREAT ideas.  Let's call Seattle, and then call Miami and see what they think?"  :)   

Nobody ever thought the Orioles would trade Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson or the Cards would trade Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock.  But it's always fun to speculate.  

[DocBauer]

Just wanted to add a couple thoughts on some guys mentioned here. And understand, this is just MY OPINION.

I don't see Clevinger or Bauer as Twins options. I am not one who piles on anyone, and I don't get involved in rumors or "he said, she said" reports. That's not how I operate. But the Twins FO, generally speaking, seems to promote harmony and a "feel good" and even family atmosphere. And I just don't see either of these guys being a target. And I'm going to leave it at that.

I am also not one to pile on ownership. No matter whether I disagree at times with what they might do, generally speaking, I think the Twins ownership is very solid. And I like what they have done, versus what they haven't at times, with a fan approval rating of somewhere around 80-85% approval rating. 

I DO understand the whole TV revenue situation being an issue. And something similar would apply to any business. And right now, it could be a 1yr Bally deal which helps MLB get set for 2025 and beyond where they would have even MORE teams looking to figure out the future. This allows for a larger/greater collection of teams for MLB to collectively plan for the future, whether the Amazon deal or something else makes more sense, rather than piecemealing some teams in 2024, and then adding others in 2025.

I get all of that. I really do.

But for a moment, accepting Polanco might be moved. Accepting Kepler might not be re-signed following 2024. Accepting Farmer will be gone now, or after 2024, does free up a lot of $. And yes, there are raises in 2025 payroll on the books, and additional raises here and there. BUT, IMO, even though I generally like our ownership, I believe that when you own a sports franchise, you owe a little something to the "product" for the fans, the community, and yourself. 

I believe that ownership, even with the questions facing them right now, has an obligation to keep the 2024 payroll as high as they can. I'd that means a trade that would, theoretically bring in someone like  Castillo from the Mariners...that could fit in the 2024 budget...but might put a squeeze on 2025, they should be willing to accept they might have to be inventive in financial growth streams going forward, hope for MLB to step in to establish new TV and streaming options to help, or simply accept a lower revenue for a season or two while this all gets figured out. 

ONLY an example, but let's say a $30M profit vs a $50M profit, even for a season or two. For an ownership worth billions, in which the Twins profits probably rank pretty low on their income ladder, I believe this should be part of not only their future value of the team, but a sort of responsibility for being a pro sports team in general.

Again, ONLY my opinion. I'd never ask a business owner to take a loss on their product/team. That's just ridiculous. But in this case, a short term loss of profit may actually be a longer term investment in their product.

Just me ranting a little bit.

Back to your regularly scheduled program. Lol.

 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

To me Raley going to Seattle (big guy, that bats LH & plays OF) eliminates any desire they may have had for Kepler.

I second that emotion. If he's going anywhere, Kepler won't be in Seattle. 

[Doctor Wu]

Frankly, I had never even heard of Brebbia before reading this post, but he seems like the only logical and affordable option that is presented. But hey, we still need that starting pitcher. I don't think Stroman is, or should be, the answer. 

[Paul D]

This is the 3rd consecutive season that I have been hoping for a Duvall signing. He fits all of the criteria the Twins are looking for as a depth addition: 1) bats right handed, 2) can play CF, 3) no long term committment, 4) 20+ home runs are a given, and 5) won't break the bank.

Let's sign him for 2024!

[BsuNemo]

The right answer is Snell, Bellinger and Hader. This immediately makes the twins a world series contender. Without the commitment to do this, Soler at 3 and 36, Hoskins on a 1 year 15 with an option year for around that and Stroman at 2 for 36 would be the poor man's version of "going for it" with the addition of a cheap relief pitcher. Soler and Hoskins could combine for 65+ home runs, Stroman (if he stays healthy) could be a very strong #2. This would mean Kep and Polo are probably gone though but maybe for a relief pitcher or two. We still keep our prospects this way as well. The truth is we will probably spend less than 10mil more than what we've already got and try to figure the rest out with trades and youth - which doesn't give world series contender vibes. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 1/5/2024 at 11:47 PM, AlwaysinModeration said:

How about they sign Sean Manaea?  One thing I’ll note that these guys have in common:

Lopez-Ryan-Ober-Paddack-Varland-Woods-Richardson - Festa - Canterino - Raya….

…All right handed.  Only lefties of note are Prielipp.and Headrick.

Never mind…Manaea to the Mets for 2/28.