Vikings Offseason Thread

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I guess I just don't get the negativity. They won 13 games last season and they played most of this season without Cousins. It seems like people don't want to give them credit for last year (they were lucky!) but want to give them all the blame this year. 

It's way too early to judge Kwesi or KOC but I tend to think both are improvements over Spielman and Zimmer. I liked the Hockenson trade. KOC has certainly seemed to improve the offense and bringing in Flores (whether that's a KOC or Kwesi decision) was a good one. When they were hired, we knew that the defense was in trouble and the improvement we saw in one year of Flores makes me think that the team has a plan and knows what kind of players fit its scheme. 

We'll see how the off-season goes but I think it is far too early to give up on both of them.

I'm not giving up on them, but I'm reserving the right to be critical. I hate the half-measure approach and this organization seems to live there. It's getting frustrating.

[wabene]

That's a good point @nicksavikingabout Spielman and ownership kicking the can. Maybe I need to ease up on Kwesi and consider he may be operating under pressure that isn't helping him.

 

[wabene]

@gunnarthor As a Viking fan since '73 I've come to realize that my fandom is based on a team and mystique long past. No more menacing dark purple uniforms. No more foreboding frigid stadium. People lament the 4 Superbowl losses, but that team was amazing to follow. This team has been mediocre at best for decades. So yes I'm jaded and should probably keep it to myself to not spoil it for others, lol.

 

[Mike Sixel]

51 minutes ago, wabene said:

That's a good point @nicksavikingabout Spielman and ownership kicking the can. Maybe I need to ease up on Kwesi and consider he may be operating under pressure that isn't helping him.

 

Ya, we have no idea what ownership feels about a rebuild....

The defense has zero CBs from the old regime. One linebacker. Two good DL. That's hard to fix.  The first draft was bad, but the dice roll on Booth being healthy just didn't work. Not giving them credit for signing a udfa that worked out is weird.

I don't have a ton of faith in the GM, but it's way too early to know, especially since we don't know if ownership has given him free reign. 

They won 13 games with a healthy QB. This year wasn't great, but there were somehow in the playoff hunt with no QB most of the year. 

Hockenson getting hurt is a big blow to next year.....

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya, we have no idea what ownership feels about a rebuild....

The defense has zero CBs from the old regime. One linebacker. Two good DL. That's hard to fix.  The first draft was bad, but the dice roll on Booth being healthy just didn't work. Not giving them credit for signing a udfa that worked out is weird.

I don't have a ton of faith in the GM, but it's way too early to know, especially since we don't know if ownership has given him free reign. 

They won 13 games with a healthy QB. This year wasn't great, but there were somehow in the playoff hunt with no QB most of the year. 

Hockenson getting hurt is a big blow to next year.....

They get credit for signing Pace.  They don't get credit for drafting Pace (that is, you can't say the 2023 draft was ok in part because of Pace).

Whether or not Kwesi was given free rein, I don't know how you can argue he's clearly improved the team's talent level.  At best, we've treaded water.  Doesn't give me much confidence that Kwesi will all of the sudden figure out how to identify talent in the draft and FA, since he's yet to do it.  I'm not saying I'd fire him now, but I'd make it pretty clear that if there aren't some immediate returns on this year's draft, he can find a job elsewhere for 2025

They won 13 games with the greatest amount of luck any NFL team has ever had.  They were outscored on the season, and score fewer points than in the last Zimmer season of 2021.  The 13-4 season papered over the team's actual issues, and if you could go back and replay that season, odds are they finish more like 9-8 or 8-9.  They should have lost to BUF and IND, and with the number of close games they played, another loss or three was hardly improbable.  They were in the playoff hunt this year because there was a massive number of middling teams, which is why 9-8 was enough to make the NFC playoffs.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

 

Whether or not Kwesi was given free rein, I don't know how you can argue he's clearly improved the team's talent level.  At best, we've treaded water.  Doesn't give me much confidence that Kwesi will all of the sudden figure out how to identify talent in the draft and FA, since he's yet to do it.  I'm not saying I'd fire him now, but I'd make it pretty clear that if there aren't some immediate returns on this year's draft, he can find a job elsewhere for 2025

My hope is that if the team finally commits to one path, like the rebuild, his drafts will be crafted completely differently. Like most teams, you probably go get your QB, O line and D line. You fill out from there. (Personally, I'd do QB and the defensive front seven and spend every free agent dime on the O line).

The team's last two drafts were basically just continuing the Frankenstein's Monster approach of desperately trying to patch things up. Oh, Thielen's going to be released? Get a WR. Our DBs are awful? Use most of our picks there. We can make these fixes on the fly and nobody will notice!

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

My hope is that if the team finally commits to one path, like the rebuild, his drafts will be crafted completely differently. Like most teams, you probably go get your QB, O line and D line. You fill out from there. (Personally, I'd do QB and the defensive front seven and spend every free agent dime on the O line).

The team's last two drafts were basically just continuing the Frankenstein's Monster approach of desperately trying to patch things up. Oh, Thielen's going to be released? Get a WR. Our DBs are awful? Use most of our picks there. We can make these fixes on the fly and nobody will notice!

To give some credit to the front office, the 2023 class had a good rookie season for what picks they did have. Addison was a BPA pick when they could have easily filled a bigger need on defense, and found a really good player. Blackmon was the last pick in the 3rd round and played decently well, faaaaar better rookie year than Booth or Evans had previously. I hated the Ward pick (I had a 7th round grade on him), and now it looks unnecessary as Metellus and Bynum have proven themselves and Theo Jackson is the next guy up. The rest of the picks were fine for what they were, though I do wonder if they would have taken Pace if DeWayne McBride weren't on the board - they reportedly had a high grade on him as he looked dominant on tape but looked out of shape / way slower than expected in camp, possibly connected to a hamstring problem he had been dealing with for a good 6-8 months. Both he and Pace were in the top 5 of prospects left on the board at that point.

It doesn't make up for the atrocity that was the 2022 draft class, but it is a step in the right direction, albeit with far less draft capital.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, Danchat said:

To give some credit to the front office, the 2023 class had a good rookie season for what picks they did have. Addison was a BPA pick when they could have easily filled a bigger need on defense, and found a really good player. Blackmon was the last pick in the 3rd round and played decently well, faaaaar better rookie year than Booth or Evans had previously. I hated the Ward pick (I had a 7th round grade on him), and now it looks unnecessary as Metellus and Bynum have proven themselves and Theo Jackson is the next guy up. The rest of the picks were fine for what they were, though I do wonder if they would have taken Pace if DeWayne McBride weren't on the board - they reportedly had a high grade on him as he looked dominant on tape but looked out of shape / way slower than expected in camp, possibly connected to a hamstring problem he had been dealing with for a good 6-8 months. Both he and Pace were in the top 5 of prospects left on the board at that point.

It doesn't make up for the atrocity that was the 2022 draft class, but it is a step in the right direction, albeit with far less draft capital.

I'll take Addison, and it looks like they got it right but he wasn't a BPA pick, they picked him because they knew they weren't going to keep Thielen. Pretty much everyone had Nolan Smith, Myles Murphy, Brian Breese and Joey Porter higher rated. 

I'm glad they got him over those guys at this time, but I really doubt he was their highest graded player, unless they were weighting their highest graded player based off of what position they wanted. Heck of a coincidence if he was. Like the time they drafted Justin Jefferson after losing Stefon Diggs, Laquan Treadwell after the Mike Wallace deal didn't work out, Cordarrelle Patterson after Percy Harin was traded and Troy Williamson after Randy Moss was traded. Funny, works out that way every single time when they need a receiver.

[Mike Sixel]

Addison and Pace on the all rookie team. Maybe the GM doesn't suck, and the issue is partly what he took over...

[yeahyabetcha]

57 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Addison and Pace on the all rookie team. Maybe the GM doesn't suck, and the issue is partly what he took over...

I think it is going to take more than what Addison and Pace offer to get more than 7 wins next year.  The team the current GM took over was not exactly without talent.  He needs a better offseason than he has produced the last two to keep his job. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I think it is going to take more than what Addison and Pace offer to get more than 7 wins next year.  The team the current GM took over was not exactly without talent.  He needs a better offseason than he has produced the last two to keep his job. 

There are zero CBs from the previous regime. Two good DL and no LB. The defense was abysmal. They had no QB last year, they won 13 games the year before ... The first draft was not good. Last year was better than average. Need a better one this year for sure. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 1/24/2024 at 9:59 PM, Mike Sixel said:

There are zero CBs from the previous regime. Two good DL and no LB. The defense was abysmal. They had no QB last year, they won 13 games the year before ... The first draft was not good. Last year was better than average. Need a better one this year for sure. 

Can't help but notice you didn't mention Metellus, Bynum, or Smith.  Along with those three, the current FO also inherited Hunter, Jefferson, Cousins, Darrisaw, and O'Neil.  That's 8 pretty good players, no?  And at Kwesi's current rate of good player procurement (Addison, Hockenson, and Pace in 2 years), he would need 3 more years (5 total) to amass the same quantity of good players as the previous FO left him (which was justly let go for their failures in player acquisition).

2 points stick out here

• When you have a disastrous draft (like 2022 was), you can't have a better than average draft the next year.  You have to have a good to great one to offset all your misses from the prior year.
• The Vikings will never realistically compete for a Super Bowl if every draft weekend produces one good pick and one good UDFA.  I'm fine giving Kwesi one more year to show what he can do, but as I've said before, this is his last shot to show he can actually consistently identify and draft talent.

There's a quotation in Rounders; "If you can't spot the sucker at the table in the first 30 minutes, then you are the sucker."  To apply the concept to Kwesi; "If Kwesi can't prove he's good at drafting in his first 3 drafts, then he's not good at drafting."  Why would we continue to employ a GM who is not good at drafting?

[Parfigliano]

41 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Can't help but notice you didn't mention Metellus, Bynum, or Smith.  Along with those three, the current FO also inherited Hunter, Jefferson, Cousins, Darrisaw, and O'Neil.  That's 8 pretty good players, no?  And at Kwesi's current rate of good player procurement (Addison, Hockenson, and Pace in 2 years), he would need 3 more years (5 total) to amass the same quantity of good players as the previous FO left him (which was justly let go for their failures in player acquisition).

2 points stick out here

• When you have a disastrous draft (like 2022 was), you can't have a better than average draft the next year.  You have to have a good to great one to offset all your misses from the prior year.
• The Vikings will never realistically compete for a Super Bowl if every draft weekend produces one good pick and one good UDFA.  I'm fine giving Kwesi one more year to show what he can do, but as I've said before, this is his last shot to show he can actually consistently identify and draft talent.

There's a quotation in Rounders; "If you can't spot the sucker at the table in the first 30 minutes, then you are the sucker."  To apply the concept to Kwesi; "If Kwesi can't prove he's good at drafting in his first 3 drafts, then he's not good at drafting."  Why would we continue to employ a GM who is not good at drafting?

We shouldnt.  Its put up or shut up time for Kwesi.

[Mike Sixel]

42 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

We shouldnt.  Its put up or shut up time for Kwesi.

Three years? Wow.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Three years? Wow.

Average NFL career is 3.3 years.  Cant afford to keep guys that cant do the job.  If he fails again this year buh-bye.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Parfigliano said:

Average NFL career is 3.3 years.  Cant afford to keep guys that cant do the job.  If he fails again this year buh-bye.

GM average is 3.3 years? Or player......and he didn't fail last year. Kirk got hurt. It's like people don't realize that or something...

[nicksaviking]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

GM average is 3.3 years? Or player......and he didn't fail last year. Kirk got hurt. It's like people don't realize that or something...

I'm not calling for his head, but this team had nothing going for it even if Kirk didn't get hurt. They wouldn't still be playing right now. 

I haven't seen one move the current GM has made to suggest the goal is to be the best team in the league. Nothing with a look to the future and long term success. They only address the most fungible roster spots in the draft because those are the team's current weaknesses, they aren't drafting players at positions that you build for long term. Trading for Hockenson was the only aggressive move this team has made, and that was for THE most luxury position in the league. You only do that if you think you are one piece away, and they were FAR from one piece away. Every move seems to be made with the goal of keeping the status quo and putting fans in the seats.

And that's likely not an Adofo-Mensah problem, it's likely an ownership problem. Or actually, a Minnesota sports problem. But I'm tired of it. I don't want to keep this awful cycle of being happy wining 10-11 games every two or three years. I want to take a step back and then win 11+ games every year and a legit shot at being the best team in the league.

Saying that, I think the adults in the room understand where the Vikings truly are at right now, and I think they will actually try to build this team the right way. I'm expecting a much better draft this year.

[Parfigliano]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

GM average is 3.3 years? Or player......and he didn't fail last year. Kirk got hurt. It's like people don't realize that or something...

Internet says average NFL GM career over last 5 years is 2.1 years.  Player 3.3 years.  Kwesi is right at average now.  If this next draft is more of the same I stand by he should be buh-bye.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Internet says average NFL GM career over last 5 years is 2.1 years.  Player 3.3 years.  Kwesi is right at average now.  If this next draft is more of the same I stand by he should be buh-bye.

crazy. thanks for the info. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not calling for his head, but this team had nothing going for it even if Kirk didn't get hurt. They wouldn't still be playing right now. 

I haven't seen one move the current GM has made to suggest the goal is to be the best team in the league. Nothing with a look to the future and long term success. They only address the most fungible roster spots in the draft because those are the team's current weaknesses, they aren't drafting players at positions that you build for long term. Trading for Hockenson was the only aggressive move this team has made, and that was for THE most luxury position in the league. You only do that if you think you are one piece away, and they were FAR from one piece away. Every move seems to be made with the goal of keeping the status quo and putting fans in the seats.

And that's likely not an Adofo-Mensah problem, it's likely an ownership problem. Or actually, a Minnesota sports problem. But I'm tired of it. I don't want to keep this awful cycle of being happy wining 10-11 games every two or three years. I want to take a step back and then win 11+ games every year and a legit shot at being the best team in the league.

Saying that, I think the adults in the room understand where the Vikings truly are at right now, and I think they will actually try to build this team the right way. I'm expecting a much better draft this year.

I mean, that means either signing Kirk, Hunter, and JJ (and deferring a lot of money) and then signing the best DL and best CB and a decent RB and going all in. Because the other option is a rebuild, and I'm betting this ownership group isn't about that....that's the key unknown for me, what are the owners telling the GM to do. 

They could blow it up and start over and have a great draft, and people will call for his head when they win 3-6 games with a rookie QB and no defense.

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, that means either signing Kirk, Hunter, and JJ (and deferring a lot of money) and then signing the best DL and best CB and a decent RB and going all in. Because the other option is a rebuild, and I'm betting this ownership group isn't about that....that's the key unknown for me, what are the owners telling the GM to do. 

They could blow it up and start over and have a great draft, and people will call for his head when they win 3-6 games with a rookie QB and no defense.

I disagree. This can was kicked down the road about three years longer than anyone figured it would be, but it's done. 100% done and I think ownership knows that. This team wasn't playing good even before Cousins got hurt. They can keep trying to kick the can, but it's going to be bouncing off of a brick wall now. Either next year or the year after, they're going to start winning 3-6 games one way or another, they might as well do it while they are building for the future instead of trying to patch up the past.

And besides, young guys who have something to prove tend to play better than vets who are discouraged by the trajectory of their team's success. I think they'll have a better record in 2025 if they start now instead of continuing with this charade for another year.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I disagree. This can was kicked down the road about three years longer than anyone figured it would be, but it's done. 100% done and I think ownership knows that. This team wasn't playing good even before Cousins got hurt. They can keep trying to kick the can, but it's going to be bouncing off of a brick wall now. Either next year or the year after, they're going to start winning 3-6 games one way or another, they might as well do it while they are building for the future instead of trying to patch up the past.

And besides, young guys who have something to prove tend to play better than vets who are discouraged by the trajectory of their team's success. I think they'll have a better record in 2025 if they start now instead of continuing with this charade for another year.

Not sure what we disagree on, other than winning 3 games next year if Kirk is the starter. I've been asking them to blow it up for two years.... But I don't know what they'll do

[nicksaviking]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not sure what we disagree on, other than winning 3 games next year if Kirk is the starter. I've been asking them to blow it up for two years.... But I don't know what they'll do

Yeah, on the same page, I just disagreed in that I think ownership will finally give up the ghost and acknowledge it’s time to try something new.

Im not confident about that, but I think they will.

[Mike Sixel]

I keep reading they will trade up. Other than maybe Chicago, why are the other two top three not taking QB? And are they really shipping that many picks to Chicago? I'll be shocked if they get one of the top three QB

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I keep reading they will trade up. Other than maybe Chicago, why are the other two top three not taking QB? And are they really shipping that many picks to Chicago? I'll be shocked if they get one of the top three QB

Me too.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Me too.

I guess one of the teams might really like the fourth QB....

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I keep reading they will trade up. Other than maybe Chicago, why are the other two top three not taking QB? And are they really shipping that many picks to Chicago? I'll be shocked if they get one of the top three QB

I’m guessing it won’t work out. With three months to go, those three QBs are going to start sounding stale though. Maybe we will get lucky and the hype on one wanes after excessive analysis brings up red flags.

I’ve also been thinking lately if Chicago has the appetite to break in another young QB. What if they go hard after Cousins? Trade Fields for picks, trade down one or two spots and take Harrison.

I wouldn’t do that as a fan of a team that is usually somewhere from average to pretty dang good. But for a franchise that is almost always a loser, a better than likely playoff spot might look pretty good.

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I guess one of the teams might really like the fourth QB....

Right, the closer Nix, Pennix and McCarthy can get to the top guys, the more likely one of the top guys will fall, as teams ahead of the Vikings may be satisfied to wait on the position and take from the next group, or even trade back.

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, on the same page, I just disagreed in that I think ownership will finally give up the ghost and acknowledge it’s time to try something new.

Im not confident about that, but I think they will.

In fairness to ownership (which pains me, a lot), they did go all-in. They signed Cousins. They had a top defense from 15-17 but a different QB each year (Teddy, Bradford, Keenan). Cousins was supposed to fix it. He was the #1 QB on the market (by far). He was the missing piece. And the defense was really good in 18 and 19. So we finally had both the elite D and the elite QB.

In retrospect, it was clear that the head coach wasn't ready/able to have a pass heavy offense. Spielman should have gotten a HC that would, but that was a hard decision to make. But the Vikes have been tied to an elite QB (by some definition) the last few years. I think trying to plug holes as the pop up and ride the QB isn't necessarily an awful idea.

Now, I think they have two choices. 1) Ride Cousins again, he's still elite and their #1 player loves him. 2) Draft a QB and hope he fits. Hunter is gone - and should be. He's 30 and missed a bunch of time the last three years. I can see arguments for both but - at least to me - the key thing is I think they have offensive and defensive minds (KOC and Flores) who are in agreement on overall team strategy and both know how to build what they want. You won't see Zimmer mistakes here.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

In fairness to ownership (which pains me, a lot), they did go all-in. They signed Cousins. They had a top defense from 15-17 but a different QB each year (Teddy, Bradford, Keenan). Cousins was supposed to fix it. He was the #1 QB on the market (by far). He was the missing piece. And the defense was really good in 18 and 19. So we finally had both the elite D and the elite QB.

In retrospect, it was clear that the head coach wasn't ready/able to have a pass heavy offense. Spielman should have gotten a HC that would, but that was a hard decision to make. But the Vikes have been tied to an elite QB (by some definition) the last few years. I think trying to plug holes as the pop up and ride the QB isn't necessarily an awful idea.

Now, I think they have two choices. 1) Ride Cousins again, he's still elite and their #1 player loves him. 2) Draft a QB and hope he fits. Hunter is gone - and should be. He's 30 and missed a bunch of time the last three years. I can see arguments for both but - at least to me - the key thing is I think they have offensive and defensive minds (KOC and Flores) who are in agreement on overall team strategy and both know how to build what they want. You won't see Zimmer mistakes here.

Hunter missed 10 games in 2021 and has played every game since, 34 in a row. I have no concerns with his health, more with are we okay paying him big money when he’s 32/33?