BA's top 10 Twins prospects

[2wins87]

Pre-season prospect list season is upon us!

BA released their top 10 for the Twins yesterday.

Since lots of the content is behind a paywall but I will just say that the biggest surprise is definitely CJ Culpepper in their top 10.  They are complimentary of his deep repertoire of pitches and big improvements last year including his big velo jump.

They are also still high on Canterino due to his mix of pitches.  Personally it seems too high, as I just cannot see him making it as a starter with his injury history and delivery, and JJ Cooper did put the odds of him being a starter below 40% in the chat, but also says he wouldn't be shocked if Canterino was among the team's best relievers by the end of this year.

Also interesting to me from the chat was Cooper's overall view of the system with a couple of clear tiers in the top 5, then a muddled tier in the 6-15 range.  He specifically mentions Keaschall and De Andrade as guys outside the top 10 that could just as easily be top 10 guys.

 

[Brandon]

Who was in their top 10?

[nicksaviking]

You can share the intel but not screen print or copy/past their material.

[2wins87]

38 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Who was in their top 10?

Culpepper and Canterino are the only ones who weren't in the latest TD top 10.  Winokur and Keaschall (already mentioned in the chat) missed their top ten.

[SF Twins Fan]

Can you provide the full list of the top ten?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Winokur has more upside than Culpepper, and much less injury risk than Canterino.  I see him as more skilled and powerful Rodriguez.  Rodriguez is primarily just OBP right now.  Both with high strike out potential but potentially more hit tool with Winokur less control of the strike zone. 

Keaschall is a borderline top 10 prospect.    

 

Its odd, they will give Priellip, Soto, Canterino  (injury or very little innings pitched) the benefit of the doubt, but get a good performance by Winokur in an admittedly small sample size and leave him off.  I could argue Winokur has the highest ceiling of any of the 4 players.  

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Winokur has more upside than Culpepper, and much less injury risk than Canterino.  I see him as more skilled and powerful Rodriguez.  Rodriguez is primarily just OBP right now.  Both with high strike out potential but potentially more hit tool with Winokur less control of the strike zone. 

Keaschall is a borderline top 10 prospect.    

 

Its odd, they will give Priellip, Soto, Canterino  (injury or very little innings pitched) the benefit of the doubt, but get a good performance by Winokur in an admittedly small sample size and leave him off.  I could argue Winokur has the highest ceiling of any of the 4 players.  

Prielipp was not in their top 10, and Cooper did address the injury history in the chat, making it pretty clear that it's the main reason.

I don't really get why Canterino doesn't get knocked down more.  He has performed in AA, but the injury history is probably just as worrying.

Soto is quite the physical specimen for his age, I think he's going to be built like Jhoan Duran in a couple of years.  I'm hopeful that he'll be fairly durable because of it.  Maybe the pitches don't develop as well as hoped, but personally I think he's worthy of a top 10 position, and could see him becoming their top pitching prospect pretty quickly with a strong showing.

I'm guessing Winokur will be in the 11-15 range which is not much different than being in the 6-10 range.  It sounds like Rodriguez will probably be in the 20-30 range.  FWIW, Winokur's 32% K rate is quite a bit different than Rodriguez's 19% rate at the same level.  The athletic ability from Winokur is on another level though, I think he'll provide good defensive value wherever he ends up, just not sure about the hit tool.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

14 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Prielipp was not in their top 10, and Cooper did address the injury history in the chat, making it pretty clear that it's the main reason.

I don't really get why Canterino doesn't get knocked down more.  He has performed in AA, but the injury history is probably just as worrying.

Soto is quite the physical specimen for his age, I think he's going to be built like Jhoan Duran in a couple of years.  I'm hopeful that he'll be fairly durable because of it.  Maybe the pitches don't develop as well as hoped, but personally I think he's worthy of a top 10 position, and could see him becoming their top pitching prospect pretty quickly with a strong showing.

I'm guessing Winokur will be in the 11-15 range which is not much different than being in the 6-10 range.  It sounds like Rodriguez will probably be in the 20-30 range.  FWIW, Winokur's 32% K rate is quite a bit different than Rodriguez's 19% rate at the same level.  The athletic ability from Winokur is on another level though, I think he'll provide good defensive value wherever he ends up, just not sure about the hit tool.

E Rodriguez struck out 56 times in 153 plate appearances in the FCL in 2021.   Winokur struck out 23 times in 71 plate appearances.  We are talking extremely SSS but in his first 11 games (50 plate appearances) struck out 18 times.  In his last 6 games (21 plate appearances)  struck out 5 times.    I think we will see improvement in the strikeouts as he gets more acclimated to better pitching.  

A potential 60 power, 60 speed player in a 6 ft 5 frame is insane.  You have a starter kit that has the possibility to turn into an Aaron Judge type player.  Same concerns with Judge as Winokur - concern over the hit tool.  Now will he find the power while maintaining the speed and defense like Judge,  most likely not.  There is only 1 Judge.  He is also just out of high school.  However both Winokur and Jenkins have elite ceilings.  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I see him as more skilled and powerful Rodriguez.  Rodriguez is primarily just OBP right now.

I have not seen Winokur play in games, just a few highlight videos of a single pitch here and there. Have you seen him play? I'm curious what people say who have seen him play. I'm excited to see him play and love what I have read about Winokur.

Are you referencing Emmanuel or Jose Rodriguez? I have not seen Jose Rod play but read solid reports on him.  I have seen Emm-Rod and while he is still young (immature), the talent jumps out when you watch him. He controls the game when he wants to do so. He can run, field, throw, hit, and hit for power - that is a five tool player. His knowledge/eye for the strike zone matches or even surpasses that of Edouard Julien. No one else in the Twins system and hardly anyone else in all of baseball has a feel for the strike zone as clearly as Emm-Rod. The wart is a red flag; he can wander in his concentration and often just swings wildly and misses at pitches, even those right down the middle or just stands at the plate and takes pitches right down the middle. Thus it is hard to know where he is headed. This year should reveal how much determination Emm-Rod has towards the grind of professional baseball. I would not question the talent at all. If you saw his at bat where he just decided to hit a grand slam in the playoffs ..... it was electric. The ball was gone, poof. 

When people go to watch a prospect, a wide outcome is possible. Sometimes a writer/scout will see a guy strike out in four at bats without swinging and nobody hits a ball to the player in the field either. Then there are times a player will show off everything they have. I think that Keith Law had a pretty good write up on Emm-Rod last Spring. He could be top ten in all of baseball or not ranked at all. If I'm picking teams, I'm gambling on the talent.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I have not seen Winokur play in games, just a few highlight videos of a single pitch here and there. Have you seen him play? I'm curious what people say who have seen him play. I'm excited to see him play and love what I have read about Winokur.

Are you referencing Emmanuel or Jose Rodriguez? I have not seen Jose Rod play but read solid reports on him.  I have seen Emm-Rod and while he is still young (immature), the talent jumps out when you watch him. He controls the game when he wants to do so. He can run, field, throw, hit, and hit for power - that is a five tool player. His knowledge/eye for the strike zone matches or even surpasses that of Edouard Julien. No one else in the Twins system and hardly anyone else in all of baseball has a feel for the strike zone as clearly as Emm-Rod. The wart is a red flag; he can wander in his concentration and often just swings wildly and misses at pitches, even those right down the middle or just stands at the plate and takes pitches right down the middle. Thus it is hard to know where he is headed. This year should reveal how much determination Emm-Rod has towards the grind of professional baseball. I would not question the talent at all. If you saw his at bat where he just decided to hit a grand slam in the playoffs ..... it was electric. The ball was gone, poof. 

When people go to watch a prospect, a wide outcome is possible. Sometimes a writer/scout will see a guy strike out in four at bats without swinging and nobody hits a ball to the player in the field either. Then there are times a player will show off everything they have. I think that Keith Law had a pretty good write up on Emm-Rod last Spring. He could be top ten in all of baseball or not ranked at all. If I'm picking teams, I'm gambling on the talent.

its Emmanuel,  he has immense plate discipline,  still some high strike outs.  Yes I see Winokur as a similar type level as Emmanual,  with the same risks.   If you look at them both 50 hit tools,  60 power,  then speed and defense Winokur has an actual bit of an advantage.  Now he may lose that if he gets bigger.   Winokur will have to rely on better hitting with more power than Rodriguez.  Rodriguez if he can keep the OBP needs to increase his power a bit,  or give up a little walks for more hits.   Both players have sky high ceilings,  I think Winokurs is higher.  

Thats where I think both should be higher than the pitchers mentioned earlier.  The upside is what is intriguing.   

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

its Emmanuel,  he has immense plate discipline,  still some high strike outs.  Yes I see Winokur as a similar type level as Emmanual,  with the same risks.   If you look at them both 50 hit tools,  60 power,  then speed and defense Winokur has an actual bit of an advantage.  Now he may lose that if he gets bigger.   Winokur will have to rely on better hitting with more power than Rodriguez.  Rodriguez if he can keep the OBP needs to increase his power a bit,  or give up a little walks for more hits.   Both players have sky high ceilings,  I think Winokurs is higher.  

Thats where I think both should be higher than the pitchers mentioned earlier.  The upside is what is intriguing.   

Wait, I wanted to know how many times you have seen Winokur or Emm-Rod actually play. Have you? 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Wait, I wanted to know how many times you have seen Winokur or Emm-Rod actually play. Have you? 

To be fair you asked 2 questions in that post,  one if I had seen them which I ignored and the second was which rodriguez it was 😁

They had a video replay of one of the FCL games.   Both Winokur and Jenkins looked really good, smooth athletic.  Good swings,  although Winokur does seem to swing for the fence a bit.  Both players looked fairly seasoned for being 18 years old.  That is where projection comes in.  Jenkins bat to ball skills were slightly better, but for the most part Winokur hung with Jenkins and beyond those 2 the FCL team didn't have much,  maybe 1 other solid bat so they really weren't protected much.  

What was interesting to me was Jenkins did better in A ball than FCL.   I would be curious if we would see the same improvement in Winokur or a drop off like Max Clark.  These are young players so plenty of valleys,  for certain for these players.   

I just think Winokur although a large player,  has decent bat to ball skills and already with immense power (I think hit if not the farthest one of the farthest home runs in the draft combine.  If we were to get lucky and all of Winokur, Rodriguez and Jenkins pan out,  that is a hell of a defensive and offensive outfield in 2-3 years.  

[nicksaviking]

23 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

E Rodriguez struck out 56 times in 153 plate appearances in the FCL in 2021.   Winokur struck out 23 times in 71 plate appearances.  We are talking extremely SSS but in his first 11 games (50 plate appearances) struck out 18 times.  In his last 6 games (21 plate appearances)  struck out 5 times.    I think we will see improvement in the strikeouts as he gets more acclimated to better pitching.  

A potential 60 power, 60 speed player in a 6 ft 5 frame is insane.  You have a starter kit that has the possibility to turn into an Aaron Judge type player.  Same concerns with Judge as Winokur - concern over the hit tool.  Now will he find the power while maintaining the speed and defense like Judge,  most likely not.  There is only 1 Judge.  He is also just out of high school.  However both Winokur and Jenkins have elite ceilings.  

Winokur was only a third round pick five months ago and a HS one at that, which means 'too raw'. Whether it's fair or not (it's not) draft equity is going to play a huge role in pundits rankings right out of the gate.

If he crushes it this year, he could be the crown jewel of the Twins prospect lists, but he likely was never going to be any higher than he's listed now.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 12/15/2023 at 2:39 PM, nicksaviking said:

Winokur was only a third round pick five months ago and a HS one at that, which means 'too raw'. Whether it's fair or not (it's not) draft equity is going to play a huge role in pundits rankings right out of the gate.

If he crushes it this year, he could be the crown jewel of the Twins prospect lists, but he likely was never going to be any higher than he's listed now.

Yes if he has close to a .900 OPS or hight in A or/or A+ ball he will be a top 5 prospect most likely.  

[tony&rodney]

Way too early to make any guesses about players who have not made it to AA ball yet. On the other hand, we can be excited about the potential of any number of prospects in the Twins system. The physical talent needs to meet the maturation process and deal with days and weeks of failure and then adjustments are made along the line.

I can remember going to a game in Dunedin in July years ago where the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays minor league team struck out the side for three consecutive innings on about 35 pitches. The top of the 4th inning that same pitcher gave up three mammoth home runs on consecutive pitches. The manager walked out and took him out. Baseball is tough, there are lessons to learn. I was glad to see the Twins take a chance on signing Winokur because he is athletic. It will be interesting to see how he does this coming year. The same goes for Charlee Soto. Meanwhile other players up the line will be trying to make their mark. The minor leagues are always fun to follow.

[Mike Sixel]

If Soto is successful, it will be a rarity. HS pitchers are the worst gamble in the MLB draft. That's why he went as late as he did (it was a good gamble that late in the draft, imo).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If Soto is successful, it will be a rarity. HS pitchers are the worst gamble in the MLB draft. That's why he went as late as he did (it was a good gamble that late in the draft, imo).

Soto has a high ceiling but yes is still raw.  It is good and bad.  he doesn't have engrained bad habits,  easier to mold, and less stress on the arm, and has a really nice build should be able to handle the physical demands.  His success will likely come down to increased control.  If you can gain that and develop even further the change up and slider, with the elite fastball, you have a possible #1 pitcher.  However,  you have possibly injuries and other delays or hurdles in development that make success on high school pitchers that much more difficult.  However,  with Questad,  you have take 2 chances to hopefully find an elite pitcher.  

[SteveLV]

Couple comments.

On Winokur, the thing that is unusual about him, given his enormous size, is how short and compact his RH swing is.  He has long arms/levers, but still keeps it short and powerful.  Very intriguing.

On Soto, it is also his size.  He is only 17 and could grow taller and certainly will fill out and get stronger as he finishes maturing. He already humps it up to triple digits.  Pitchers are high risk, but he certainly has the rare physical attributes.  He actually reminds a bit of a RH Randy Johnson with his length and size.  FIngers crossed, and sure hope the Twins do not flip him in a trade this spring.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, SteveLV said:

Couple comments.

On Winokur, the thing that is unusual about him, given his enormous size, is how short and compact his RH swing is.  He has long arms/levers, but still keeps it short and powerful.  Very intriguing.

On Soto, it is also his size.  He is only 17 and could grow taller and certainly will fill out and get stronger as he finishes maturing. He already humps it up to triple digits.  Pitchers are high risk, but he certainly has the rare physical attributes.  He actually reminds a bit of a RH Randy Johnson with his length and size.  FIngers crossed, and sure hope the Twins do not flip him in a trade this spring.

I'm hoping to see both Soto and Winokur play a number of times this coming season. Having only seen briefs videos on these two and read their reports, it is tough to get a feel for them. Certainly you and another paint positive pictures, which is exciting. I'm hoping for the Twins to benefit eventually from these two players.