Pitching Showdown: Rating the Twins' Staff against the Rangers and Diamondbacks Rotations

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins were carried by pitching for much of the 2023 season, especially when it came to the starting rotation. But how would their frontline arms match up with the starting corps of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks? How far off are they from looking like a World Series-caliber rotation?

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

While the Twins could not reach the World Series this year. We can assign blame to various factors, including lack of offense at critical moments, poor timing defensively at others, and savvy postseason-experienced veterans of an American League dynasty may have been too much to handle in a best-of-5 series.

It takes a complete team to have success in the postseason. (And a little bit of good fortune.) But when you focus on the starting rotation, the Twins make an interesting comparison with those currently in the World Series. So, how do they stack up against these championship contenders?

Staff Aces
Rangers: Jordan Montgomery (3.22 ERA, 188 IP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 3.7% walk rate, 4.3 fWAR)
Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 26% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 5.2 fWAR)
Twins: Pablo López (3.66 ERA, 194 IP, 29.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 4.5 fWAR)

As it stands, each of these three arms had stellar seasons, even ace-level in some respects. They each stayed healthy throughout the year, starting at least 32 games. All three had strong strikeout and walk rates under the hood and found themselves in the top 13 regarding wins above replacement for a starting pitcher. 

Montgomery was a mid-season addition at the trade deadline and had a fantastic two-month stretch with his new team, where he had a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts, even though his strikeout numbers were just OK.

 

 

Gallen has been one of the best starting pitchers since being traded to Arizona in 2019, and he has taken a significant leap to ace status since the beginning of the 2022 season. The Snakes' top arm is becoming quite the household name after pitching 396 innings of 3.04 ERA ball over the last two seasons.

These stats are purely looking at each player's regular season numbers. But if we consider the two brilliant performances that López accomplished in the playoffs, this one looks even closer. 

If the Twins had pushed the Astros series to a winner-take-all Game 5, López would have had another chance to shine under a national spotlight. With another start like his first two in the postseason (0.71 ERA, 12 ⅔ innings pitched, ten strikeouts, three walks), the Twins' ace might have a big enough reputation to top the other two arms, but instead the edge has to go to Gallen. 

 

 

Next arms up:
Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 144 IP, 22.9% K-rate, 3.8% BB-rate, 2.5 fWAR)
Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 177 ⅔ IP, 25.9% K-rate, 9.6% BB-rate, 3.2 fWAR)
Twins: Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 184 IP, 24.3% K-rate, 7.3% BB-rate, 5.3 fWAR)

There is a case that Gray had a superior season to López, but for this exercise, we'll have him line up as the second starter. Considering how the two lined up in the Wild Card series, it's only fair. Again, all three starters in this matchup had rock-solid campaigns, though Eovaldi missed a handful of turns in the rotation due to forearm soreness. Still, each pitcher showed top-of-the-rotation stuff when healthy and arms that you would easily roll out early in a playoff series.

Eovaldi has lost a couple of ticks on his once-electric fastball, which is understandable for a 33-year-old veteran. But he still found a way to get out of jams by inducing plenty of ground balls (86th percentile). He was one of the best at limiting damage with runners in scoring position, where his opponents hit an anemic .168 against him (third-best in baseball, according to Inside Edge). That's extremely valuable, especially in high-octane settings like the MLB playoffs. 

Kelly has some of the best off-speed stuff in the game but showed a tendency to lose control in 2023. His chase rate was in the 88th percentile, and like Eovaldi, he got plenty of ground balls (68th percentile) to help him wriggle out of danger. While he isn't on the same level as Gallen, Kelly is still a formidable opponent. 

Gray had the best season of his career in 2023, and he will almost certainly find himself getting some Cy Young award consideration. He was as consistent as any pitcher in the game, with only two blemishes on his 32-start game log. Gray was the best of these three pitchers at limiting hard contact, especially on pitches in the strike zone (.394 opponent slugging, second-best in MLB). That helps to provide some context as to how he avoided giving up the long ball (just eight home runs allowed all season). 

Regular season numbers might point to Gray having the edge, but his start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS proved how anything can happen in one game. The Twins might not have Sonny Gray to include in this list next year, yet his abilities equal that of a good number two starter in any playoff series. 

Rounding out the playoff rotations:
Rangers: Max Scherzer (3.77 ERA, 152 ⅔ IP, 28% K-rate, 7.2% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR)
Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 96 IP, 22.3% K-rate, 6.2% BB-rate, 0.3 fWAR)
Twins: Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 161 ⅔ IP, 29.3% K-rate, 5.1% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR)

Here's where things get dicey for all three clubs. The rotations take very similar turns at this point in a series, as all three of these arms are likely facing short starts in high-pressure games. 

Scherzer is a slam dunk for the Hall of Fame when that time comes, but he finds himself playing through a nagging injury that kept him out of the rotation for weeks leading up to the ALCS. 

Still, the allure that made him an enticing trade acquisition at the deadline remains. He still possesses elite expected numbers (86th percentile xERA, 90th percentile xBA) and has an extensive history of turning it on in October (3.86 ERA, 29.2% K-rate across 140 career postseason innings). But he was lit up in his two starts in the ALCS, where he allowed seven earned runs in just 6⅔ innings pitched. 

Pfaadt was one of the better pitching prospects in Arizona's farm system coming into this season. His regular season numbers may have been pedestrian, if not disappointing, but he has been a revelation in the postseason. Across his four October starts, the righty has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP across 16 ⅔ innings pitched. 

Ryan should be considered an exciting arm for Twins fans going forward, but his lone playoff start against the Astros showed he's still a step behind the veterans in his rotation. In 2023, Ryan gave up home runs at an alarming rate (1.78 HR/9) and ran out of gas in the second half. His strikeout-to-walk rate shows there is still a lot to like for the 27-year-old, and it's encouraging to see him start his off-season with an evaluation from Driveline. Still, the edge has to go to the savvy veteran in Scherzer or the hot hand in Pfaadt. 

What do you think? How do you see the Twins' rotation matching the Rangers and Diamondbacks' rotations? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. 

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[ashbury]

The Twins had a breakthrough season this year.  Starting pitching was expected to be the team's strength, and that proved out.

The reason the Twins are now sitting at home instead of being on the big stage beginning tonight isn't because of the players named in this article.

[old nurse]

You forgot pitcher number 4

[chpettit19]

I think this is a good representation of why it's so important to replace Gray with someone who can replicate that type of production. Can Ober take that next step? Ryan maintain his early season production for a full season? Paddack come back and throw 30+ starts of 5-6+ innings? I don't know that I trust any of those things to come true to replace Gray's numbers. I love those 3 as starters 3-5 in the rotation to be able to have 1 of them step up and perhaps even improve on Ryan's status as the #3 arm. But I think an outside acquisition is needed to give them the best possible option of finding a #2 who can pair with Lopez at the top of their 2024 playoff staff. But they certainly matched up well at the 1-2 spots this year. Was fun to finally have some starters worth tuning in for!

[tony&rodney]

I would take the Twins pitchers before either team, Texas or Arizona, every time. Nobody can guarantee results in the postseason but it is worth noting that the Twins has success against both World Series teams, even though some might point to when we played those quads.

[arby58]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

The Twins had a breakthrough season this year.  Starting pitching was expected to be the team's strength, and that proved out.

The reason the Twins are now sitting at home instead of being on the big stage beginning tonight isn't because of the players named in this article.

Sonny Gray had a great year, but he is a reason they are now sitting at home - it was a 1-1 series after the big Lopez win, back at home, and he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings. 

[Karbo]

Compare the lineups and we probably rank last. Bullpen at least in the playoffs pitched well.

[Hubie29]

Texas and Arizona prove that pitching isn't the number 1 factor in making it to the Series. Of course pitching is important, but the ability to hit in key situations and not constantly leaving runners on base after "another strikeout" is probably more important. Witness the Twins and what was their downfall all year.  Arizona and Texas are in the Series due to clutch hitting. Eovaldi gives up 5 and the Rangers still won with clutch hitting. Something the Twins failed at time and time again.

[tony&rodney]

No team ever won a game when the offense didn't score; that's simple enough. Still, baseball has a long history of proving that  pitching is the key ingredient in winning. I'm with those who have hopes that the Twins add a strong starting pitcher this offseason. While signing a free agent saves the loss of good position player and prospects, a trade seems more likely.

While it might be beneficial to add to the offense, it is very possible that good health, always elusive, and incremental improvements by a few players make the Twins into a productive offense. The Twins have some decisions to make about Julien, Polanco, and Lee. Perhaps this gets deferred. Royce Lewis just may be a steady player and a fixture in the lineup. I'm still bullish on Correa and believe he will have a better year with the bat going forward. The key, as it ever is, will be if Byron Buxton can be productive for 110+ games. Not just home runs, but the Buxton everyone pictures and hopes for only at a reduced rate of games. It is also reasonable to expect Alex Kirilloff to improve quite a bit if he is finally fully healthy and can have the offseason and March needed to prepare him for seven months of baseball. I'm thinking that the offense will be stronger in 2024, more in tune but even improved from the second half of 2023.

The key remains to consistently place very good pitching on the mound.  The decisions made this winter will determine whether those arms are from the current roster or from a few guys brought aboard.

[miracleb]

I think Ryan's ERA will always hover around 4.5 because his high fastball at 92mph is NOT a force to be reckoned with.  A solid number 4 or 5 pitcher in a good rotation appears to be his up-side.

[tony&rodney]

14 hours ago, miracleb said:

I think Ryan's ERA will always hover around 4.5 because his high fastball at 92mph is NOT a force to be reckoned with.  A solid number 4 or 5 pitcher in a good rotation appears to be his up-side.

Merrill Kelly shut down the Rangers on Saturday night. He usually throws his fastball around 91-92 and topped out at 94. Ryan hangs out in the same neighborhood, topping out at 95-96 on the rare occasion. MLB hitters punish 100 mph down the middle. The ability to keep batters off stride and the ball off the barrel by moving it around the zone is more important than velocity. We see this with Louie Varland, who I believe will be a really good starting pitcher with a little more command of his pitches. While velocity can be a nice addition, Joe Ryan will be successful as long as he locates his pitches.