Thinking Ahead: How the Twins' Books Shape Up Going Forward

[twinstalker]

On 10/25/2023 at 10:51 AM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I do agree with you that declining Kepler’s option and moving Wallner to right looks like an easy decision. 

Why in the world would they decline Kepler's option?  Because the whole league would love to have him at $10 million, and it's close to Christmas?

I'm not saying the Twins won't screw up after picking up his option, but you've got to at least take the first obvious step.

[Linus]

I would pick up keplers and Polos options. I would keep Polo and trade Max. He had a great second half but I don’t trust that more than the prior 3 years he wasn’t good. Sell high and use the money on a starter or good rh left fielder. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Why in the world would they decline Kepler's option?  Because the whole league would love to have him at $10 million, and it's close to Christmas?

I'm not saying the Twins won't screw up after picking up his option, but you've got to at least take the first obvious step.

I think it’s a stretch to say the whole league would love to have Kepler or that the Twins could trade him for a ton of value, but I get your point. Ultimately the front office needs to recognize that they have internal options that are more cost effective. If Kepler goes somewhere and leads his team to a World Series like Rosario did, well, then, good for him. 🙂

[tony&rodney]

45 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think it’s a stretch to say the whole league would love to have Kepler or that the Twins could trade him for a ton of value,

You have two things going on here. I don't see the relationship. The Twins are not going to get back very much in return for Kepler alone. He has one year left on his contract. On the other hand, if the Twins did not pick up his contract and Max becomes a free agent ... well, then Kepler jumps to the front of the line as the best free agent outfielder. A team that has too many excellent outfielders would not be interested in adding another, but any team needing a solid fielding, good base running, athletic guy who is coming off a season where he had an OPS of .816 with an OPS+ of 121  is going to be very actively interested. We can all agree that Kepler was frustrating in 2022 and the first half of 2023, but it would be stubborn to ignore his talent and production along with the potential for future production from Max. Kepler could possibly be dealt in a package that includes a couple of good prospects for a needed pitcher.

[tony&rodney]

23 hours ago, Linus said:

I would pick up keplers and Polos options. I would keep Polo and trade Max. He had a great second half but I don’t trust that more than the prior 3 years he wasn’t good. Sell high and use the money on a starter or good rh left fielder. 

Can the Twins find a starter on the market for $10 million? What is the limit or possibility of the Twins going big on a starting free agent pitcher? I like the idea of adding a good RH left fielder. I believe Gurriel Jr. is the best on the market. There is a decided lack of good outfielders available in free agency this year. It might be tough to improve on what we currently have in the system. I'm open to all ideas though. Most of the trade ideas I goof around with ( a second here and there) are a little unrealistic or seem impracticable.

[wabene]

On 10/25/2023 at 12:04 PM, 2wins87 said:

if Kirilloff is out to start he season, which sounds likely,

Kirilloff is having a minor procedure with a short recovery time. He will be full go for spring training and have his first normal off-season in 3 years. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 10/28/2023 at 6:26 AM, miracleb said:

You missed my point.  Goldschmidt...we have better options internally...... and Aaron Judge and Alonso.......we are not getting them.

:)

Please list for me the better internal options than Goldschmidt or Alonso.  Keep in mind you can't list Lewis or Julien, as I specifically called out there's no point to move a player down the defensive spectrum to 1B simply because the bat plays.

[miracleb]

20 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Please list for me the better internal options than Goldschmidt or Alonso.  Keep in mind you can't list Lewis or Julien, as I specifically called out there's no point to move a player down the defensive spectrum to 1B simply because the bat plays.

No better option than Alonso or Aaron Judge...but we are not getting them.....so no reason to discuss them.  Julien.....yes because you are not pushing him down the the "defensive spectrum" (AT ALL) with Polanco at 2nd.  Kiriloff, if healthy, is also better than a 36-37 yr old Goldschmidt.  I would even say Miranda, Brooks Lee, (and yes,) Lewis...... would all be better options.....for a FRACTION of the price!   Just helping you out as to why those three are NOT options for the Twins next year......

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

No better option than Alonso or Aaron Judge...but we are not getting them.....so no reason to discuss them.  Julien.....yes because you are not pushing him down the the "defensive spectrum" (AT ALL) with Polanco at 2nd.  Kiriloff, if healthy, is also better than a 36-37 yr old Goldschmidt.  I would even say Miranda, Brooks Lee, (and yes,) Lewis...... would all be better options.....for a FRACTION of the price!   Just helping you out as to why those three are NOT options for the Twins next year......

No idea where Judge came from, I don't think anyone said Judge as an option at all.  No reason Julien can't play second (he got better as the year went along), so eliminating a significant portion of his value makes no sense.  Kiriloff--IF--is the key word here; IF healthy is not a bet I'm willing to make at this point, so when you say Kiriloff is a better option than Goldy OR Alonso (which was your original point), you're betting on a guy that's played more than 110 games once in 6 years.  Miranda had a sub-.600 OPS last year (even in AAA it was sub-.700); even in his "breakout" season, his OPS was .751 (Goldy or Alonso have literally never been below .800).  Brooks Lee has lots of promise, but he still had a .731 OPS in AAA last year.  Lewis has the ceiling of above-average 3B or CF; it makes zero sense to sacrifice all that by putting him at 1B.

[Major League Ready]

On 10/26/2023 at 6:47 PM, DocBauer said:

They've got roughly $30-31M to work with if that happens. And that's keeping all 3 of Polanco, Kepler, AND Farmer, if I understand correctly. So if one of those is not kept, or moved, they would have another $6-10M to work with. That should be enough for a quality starter, and one more good bat somewhere. Possibly a solid but not grossly expensive pen addition or re-sign, (can't believe I'm actually, maybe, probably, in favor of Pagan back), and set up an inexpensive, milb flier offer to a SP depth option.

It's all a question of at least keeping the payroll at status quo. And I just can't believe they are remotely blind-sided by the loss of the Bally contract. So no matter how this turns out, I don't see any kind of big cut.

They don't have much for OF depth so I think Kepler is the most likely of the 3 you mentioned to be retained.  Of course, they could get an offer they can't refuse. Polanco is the most likely to be traded.  He is a good player but he would be diminished to a utility role.  He is not well suited for that role and given that role the money can be spent more effectively elsewhere.  The money is better used for a CF or 1B back-up plan.

They would have $40M if they maintained payroll.  We need to keep in mind that $150M payroll was done in a season when they got the final BAM payment and of course TV revenue is likely less.  My guess is they spend $140M but that's obviously pure speculation.  Perhaps (hopefully) they made a decision last year to allocate part of the BAM money to 2024 payroll so that they could maintain the current level of spending.

My hope is that they are able to land a front of the rotation SP even though that makes Polanco's departure even more certain.  That puts Varland in the BP and first man up if a SP goes down.  

[miracleb]

17 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

No idea where Judge came from, I don't think anyone said Judge as an option at all.  No reason Julien can't play second (he got better as the year went along), so eliminating a significant portion of his value makes no sense.  Kiriloff--IF--is the key word here; IF healthy is not a bet I'm willing to make at this point, so when you say Kiriloff is a better option than Goldy OR Alonso (which was your original point), you're betting on a guy that's played more than 110 games once in 6 years.  Miranda had a sub-.600 OPS last year (even in AAA it was sub-.700); even in his "breakout" season, his OPS was .751 (Goldy or Alonso have literally never been below .800).  Brooks Lee has lots of promise, but he still had a .731 OPS in AAA last year.  Lewis has the ceiling of above-average 3B or CF; it makes zero sense to sacrifice all that by putting him at 1B.

The original point is that Alonso is as much of an option as Aaron Judge.....he is NOT an option.  I threw Judge in so you could recognize that he is NOT an option for the Twins.  28 year old who hit 86 home runs the last two years....not an option.  If you trade Polanco....then Julien has a free run at 2nd base.  These things don't happen in a vacuum......