What Should the Twins Do with Trevor Larnach?

[Rosterman]

With the possible return of Kepler, it doesn't look like he brings anything special to the outfield. The Twins will probably add Keirsey to the 40-man, and if they feel Celestino and Gordon should also stay around, it is getting pretty crowded out there.

And who knows if Kirilloff will be the first baseman, or if the Twins do need to find a place for Julien in the long run (not to mention what to do about Miranda).

Yep, Larnach could be bundled with a prospect or two for a solid relief pitcher or middle rotation arm, perhaps. If teams feel the Twins high draftee shows promise. If the Twins are giving up on him, though, do we jsut try and rebuild his worth?

[jorgenswest]

It is getting crowded but I don’t think they add Keirsey. At 26 his wRC+ at AA (120) and AAA(109) is pretty common. His experience may have allowed him to take better advantage of the tiny robo-strike zones to increase his walk rate.

I think many teams already have a guy with his profile in their system. The Twins really had two in he and Stevenson. There is another Stevenson in the Phillies system. Cal is age 26, plays centerfield, has a good walk rate and OBP. His wRC+ is 123. He has had a couple of cups of coffee in the major leagues. It all looks good until you realize Jake Cave was with that AAA team also and had a wRC+ of 171. Stevenson was in the majors with Oakland and in AAA with them. In a short stint he  had a wRC+ of 141 in AAA. On that team there are a handful of guys better and J.J. Bleday who has the same profile put up better numbers. Bleday was a prospect a few years back with the Marlins and did get a chance this year with the A’s with pretty poor results.

I think the run scoring context of the upper minors this year gives a false impression of players particularly this that are older. There are a lot of Keirsey’s out there and I wouldn’t worry about losing him in a rule 5 draft. There will be a Cal Stevenson to pick up as a minor league free agent.

[stringer bell]

I thought that Larnach was the superior option to Wallner, but Trevor fell on hard times with the Twins. Wallner came on and provided power that (so far) Trevor has been unable to produce. 
 

As many have pointed out, having depth is desirable, but having Trevor go back to AAA isn’t great for his career. He’ll probably get another chance and it may be his last with the Twins. If the team thinks they have other guys to step up perhaps they will try to trade Larnach. 

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Those two and what? Because combined they aren't worth much of anything right now. They need to be healthy and effective. 

Yes and no.

I simply tossed them out without having an exact destination or return. 

Think about a deal for Odorizzi for a milb SS that might have been a salary dump.

Ryan was acquired from TB for a half season of a DH. And they are known to look at talent and potential, and often win trades. They might salivate over a couple former top prospects just waiting for a full season of opportunity and another big bat who just needs to get healthy again.

And maybe they aren't the target. Maybe the A's are looking to do the same thing as the Ray's and bring in young, cheap talent and make it work.

I'm just spitballing. You say selling low. You might be right. And I don't know if the Twins are even selling. But some teams like buying low with potential.  And there is room for a ton of potential here.  And that's all I'm conjecturing.

[Hashim]

16 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Raya is 21 in A+ with 59 innings he probably isn't a real solution next year, Festa has 90 innings and a 4.39 ERA in AA, again probably not a solution other than a few starts. Paddock is coming off TJ surgury and will be on a innings limit. So in reality there isn't much depth after the starting 4.

 

Raya is in AA and Festa is in AAA. Look at Atlanta and how they develop young pitchers and call them up from AA/AAA. 

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Maybe he is the next Rooker or Raley - he needs a true chance to play through the challenges.  He is not going to be part of the Twins OF based on the names and numbers. 

Brent Rooker 28

2023	28	OAK	AL	121	468	410	53	99	18	1	24	58	3	0	45	151	.241	.327	.466	.793	122	191	11	9	0	4	1	D79H

Luke Raley 28

023	28	TBR	AL	114	400	351	54	87	23	3	18	48	14	3	28	127	.248	.333	.484	.818	124	170	2	18	1	2	0	937DH/81

 

Very good point. At this point, I just don't see any room for Larnach on the Twins. But I also don't see that he has much, if any, trade value either. Mostly likely, he's cast aside and yeah, he could indeed become the next Rooker or Raley if given the chance. 

[arby58]

On 9/13/2023 at 8:33 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

For crying out loud, the Twins spent $11MM on Joey Gallo and gave him hundreds of ABs while Larnach has festered in St.Paul. Larnach must be shaking his head wondering how much better he’d be if he had those major league ABs (and how much more valuable he might be for the Twins in the trade market - his value couldn’t really be any lower now.). 

He had 162 at bats with the Twins this year, which worked out to a WAR of 0.0. More at bats doesn't necessarily translate into better results. He's had 582 at bats in his career, and his OPS+ is 94 - which suggests he is what he is, a fringe MLB player. He's not a kid anymore either. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who's trading an elite pitching prospect for Larnach? No one. AAA isn't full of OF options either. 

I don't think anyone is going to trade an "elite" pitching prospect for Larnach. That's why my view is that you test the market to see if there's someone that you think has value that can be unlocked. Two good examples are the Ryan trade and the trade of Spencer Steer. Neither was considered an elite prospect but the Twins and Reds saw something and now both appear to above average MLB players. Target that kind of player at the AA or A level on a poor team who is rebuilding their offense. Rooker was never going to be a starter on a good team. His only chance was to go to a bad team and get an opportunity. The jury is still out on him but he might be a decent to good MLB hitter. I see Larnach in the same way. He could be a good MLB hitter but only if he gets a full year of playing very day in the Bigs.  The Twins are in a contention window and can only do that with either Larnach or Wallner. We've chosen Wallner. Perhaps the As, Royals, Rockies, etc. see Larnach's potential the same way and would be willing to gamble a 20-30 prospect in the low minors to get a guy who will be controllable for a few years and isn't even arb eligible so he'll be cheap for those few years. The Twins get a development prospect that may pan out but may not. That's the kind of trade I'm advocating.

If we can't get that, keep him for depth.  

[KirbyDome89]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The track record with healthy Martin is great.....

Yeah no clue whether this version of Martin is the "real," version. Hopefully it is, I just wouldn't be penciling him as a starter in LF to begin next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah no clue whether this version of Martin is the "real," version. Hopefully it is, I just wouldn't be penciling him as a starter in LF to begin next year. 

At some point you have to trust and try rookies. Seems to work for other teams. I'd prefer him over Luplow or Stevenson or Gallo...and most other mediocre veterans. We KNOW those guys are mediocre (or worse). 

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/13/2023 at 8:38 AM, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

Health & Effectiveness. Without those, more depth is needed than 3 additional minor league arms.

Not necessarily picked up via trade - difficult to do unless trading guys like Arraez.

Larnach - Miranda - Celestino …….withering away in AAA ……..gotta move them or cut bait, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Health & Effectiveness. Without those, more depth is needed than 3 additional minor league arms.

Not necessarily picked up via trade - difficult to do unless trading guys like Arraez.

Larnach - Miranda - Celestino …….withering away in AAA ……..gotta move them or cut bait, IMO.

Miranda is withering away? Wow. Celestino is 24 and been hurt. I really don't get how you can feel that way about those two who spent all of this year hurt (mostly).

[KirbyDome89]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

At some point you have to trust and try rookies. Seems to work for other teams. I'd prefer him over Luplow or Stevenson or Gallo...and most other mediocre veterans. We KNOW those guys are mediocre (or worse). 

Same, obviously, I just don't think one hot month is enough to justify handing him a starting spot. He's cooled considerably, albeit in a smaller SS, this month vs. August. He wasn't impressive at all last year either. How much of that is injury, again, Idk. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Same, obviously, I just don't think one hot month is enough to justify handing him a starting spot. He's cooled considerably, albeit in a smaller SS, this month vs. August. He wasn't impressive at all last year either. How much of that is injury, again, Idk. 

It's a fair position to hold. Unlike some on this board, you at least consider rookies an option.....

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Miranda is withering away? Wow. Celestino is 24 and been hurt. I really don't get how you can feel that way about those two who spent all of this year hurt (mostly).

Where do they fit in going forward…….you think Martin & Lee are players, correct? Where will Miranda play in a Twins Uniform? Who is he playing in front of next season? Same with Celestino - he’s a right handed bat with lesser skills than Castro. Larnach has been up & down for 3 years………as I’ve said before, love his look as a ball player & his pedigree prior to draft………if Kepler comes back (90%?) then I do not see a spot for him either in ‘24, even to try.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Where do they fit in going forward…….you think Martin & Lee are players, correct? Where will Miranda play in a Twins Uniform? Who is he playing in front of next season? Same with Celestino - he’s a right handed bat with lesser skills than Castro. Larnach has been up & down for 3 years………as I’ve said before, love his look as a ball player & his pedigree prior to draft………if Kepler comes back (90%?) then I do not see a spot for him either in ‘24, even to try.

I have no idea,  but that's different than "withering away." They need backups. They need AAA players that might be MLB players. I'll give you Larnach, which is why I didn't mention him, but those other two aren't 25 yet. They've been hurt. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea,  but that's different than "withering away." They need backups. They need AAA players that might be MLB players. I'll give you Larnach, which is why I didn't mention him, but those other two aren't 25 yet. They've been hurt. 

So we differ on Celestino - just don’t see him evolving into a player we want. I have no crystal ball, so we’ll find out. Miranda - had some success in ‘22 - seemed to have played quite a few games in ‘23 to have been hurt most of the year……..I guess the shoulder lingered. When he did play, he didn’t play well. We’ll see with him as well.

My withering away comment was intended for now & forward, don’t see these guys making it in our organization so we should let them have opportunities elsewhere to be fair. Trading for much value, unless with other young prospect types, seems slim.

[Guest]

Coach him up, bigly.  It's too early to cut bait.  Larnach's current trade value is zip.  And too many young former Twins seem to have a remarkable amount of success after the Twins cast them off.

Larnach has a hole in his swing.  His weaknesses can be coached.  Compare video of Larnach's swing in April-May with July-August.  Somebody's been in his ear about that leg kick.  He's still learning to shift his weight in lieu of the leg kick.  Nobody's going to make us an offer that accounts for Larnach's still-possible upside.  Coach him up!

[Guest]

BTW, call it another Larnach hitting streak that won't sustain if you wish, but he's hitting over .400 since 28 July in St. Paul with power.  His SO rate is down, and more importantly Larnach's walks-to-strikeouts are 9-13.  Someone's gotten to him (I hope) about controlling the strike zone, pitch selection and quieting his head, keeping his hands back and hips in.  Don't quit on this kid yet.