Twins' Pitching Puzzle: Unraveling Bailey Ober's Role as Playoffs Approach

[Lou Hennessy]

While he failed to break camp with the big league club out of Spring Training, Bailey Ober eventually made his way to being the Twins’ most consistent starter for much of the season. But now that he has blown past his career-high for innings pitched, and the club has a handful of rotation options, what will the tall righty’s role be down the stretch and into a possible postseason run?

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

There's no doubt about it. The Twins wouldn't be where they are today without the steadying presence of Bailey Ober in their rotation for the bulk of the season. He's surprised many with his ability to control his fastball up in the zone while limiting walks as good as anyone. He's been the unsung hero of the team's biggest asset - their starting rotation. 

Okay, he has received plenty of praise this year, so maybe he's not so unsung anymore, but the fact remains that Ober has been a critical contributor to the team's modest success. 

But some interesting variables have come into play as the 2023 season rounds third and embarks on its home stretch. Ober has started to show cracks in his last seven starts, which is unsurprising for a young hurler. But the Twins now have a handful of options for their starting rotation, and they are entering the same stage of the season where things went off the rails a year ago.

Indeed, the club will want to monitor his workload now that he's established a new high mark for innings pitched. That could mean skipping a start here and there or getting an extra day of rest when available. A likely scenario is to give him a quicker hook within each game when possible. Old-timers and zealots who cling to the outdated concept of pitch count being the critical motivating factor for these decisions will hate that idea. Still, it makes sense if the team hopes to keep Ober healthy while making sure he remains in the starting rotation. 

We saw that play out in real-time in Tuesday's 7-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Ober avoided a big blow through five innings, giving up two earned runs while throwing just 78 pitches. But out of the 13 balls put into play against him in those five innings, more than half had an exit velocity of 93.5 MPH or more. Yes, it was great that Ober could wiggle out of significant damage. But it's hard to look at the batted-ball results - combined with allowing three walks - and conclude that he was dominating. 

And that's been his story for the last seven starts. Since the All-Star break, Ober has pitched 36 innings to a 5.25 ERA, with a 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk numbers have stayed consistent, but he's giving up a lethal amount of home runs (2.25 HR/9), and opposing hitters are boasting a .311 batting average against him. That's cause for concern, especially because Ober has thrown more innings this year than in any season of his career, with six weeks remaining on the schedule. 

So what's next? Since it's impossible to fathom the Twins shutting Ober down entirely at any point, there are only so many options. Does he continue to start with added rest days? Should he get an earlier hook on a game-to-game basis, regardless of how well he's pitching? Will the club change his role based on the available rotation options?

While he's been shakier than usual in the last month, Ober is still one of the five best options for the Twins' starting rotation as they head into a crucial stretch to a hopeful playoff run. He tends to steady himself as the game goes along, just as he did on Tuesday night. When going through the order for a third time, Ober has limited his opponents to just a .271 slugging percentage, which is sixth-best among starting pitchers, according to Inside Edge. In those scenarios, he has only walked two batters all year, as well. So, as the game goes on, Ober limits damage and baserunners, giving many the impression that he's rolling. 

That accounts for much of the fan outrage any time he gets lifted with fewer than 90 pitches, and it also makes things tricky when determining if he would be the proper candidate to move to a piggyback and bullpen role at some point, as was suggested in Dan Hayes' recent piece for The Athletic. On the one hand, there's merit in limiting his exposure, and innings total at this point in the season, but on the other hand, it's logical to keep him in a position where he's had the most success despite his recent struggles. 

So what will happen when Joe Ryan returns to the rotation if all five current starters remain healthy and relatively effective? That point is approaching rapidly. It'll be worth watching how the Twins navigate Ober and the rest of their starting staff, especially if they make it into the postseason.

What do you think will happen with the Twins' rotation mix? What do you want to happen? In the comment section below, let us know your thoughts about Ober's season and role. 

 

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[Sean.h]

perfect situation for piggy-backing. 6-man rotation with short starts puts more pressure on the BP! Just stick with a 5-man rotation with Keuchel starting the 1st inning and Ober starting the 5th inning.

[Mike Sixel]

He and Varland should be moved to the bullpen. Varland now, so he can get used to it (it won't hurt him as a starter next year) and Ober as the last week apporoaches. They are both better than most of the current bullpen. NOT doing this would be another nail in the coffin of this FO for me. There is no reason not to put Varland there right now.

[gman]

I think you stay with a 5 man rotation, with different skipped starters. Give rotation breaks to Ober, Gray and Lopez. Ryan has had a long break and Maeda got close to 2 months off earlier. Keuchel has had half a year break almost. I think mostly they need the best health  and most rest posssible for the playoffs. To me it doesn't matter if they win the division by 10 games or 1.

[DJL44]

Keep pushing until the division is won and then give everyone the week off before the playoffs. Hopefully you can skip 2 Ober starts in late Sept.

[Karbo]

A couple of wild cards. Is Keuchel going to work out on a consistent basis and how does Ryan do.

[Trov]

I think it depends on if they plan to use him in the playoff rotation or not.  Of course that will depend on other injuries.  If they do not plan to use him in playoff rotation, unless they would look to use him long relief in playoffs, if they feel he is nearing end of season do to too much use, then why not skip a start or shut him down completely?  I am fine with a 6 man rotation to help rest the other guys overall too.  However, if you want to use Ober in post season, you should either go 6 man with him or move him to pen now, if the team thinks the drop in production is clearly due to fatigue. 

[karcherd]

We currently have 5 starters, if the front office is counting on Keuchel down the stretch, then we are in trouble and this front office needs to go.  A six man rotation takes everyone out of their rhythm, which we have been told over the years is just as important in the performance of a starting pitcher.  Stay with a 5 man rotation, release Keuchel when Ryan comes back and slide in Varland if another starter is needed.

[mikelink45]

Don't change the rotation.  If we are lucky enough to win in the first round I do not want to see starters go on short rest. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He and Varland should be moved to the bullpen. Varland now, so he can get used to it (it won't hurt him as a starter next year) and Ober as the last week apporoaches. They are both better than most of the current bullpen. NOT doing this would be another nail in the coffin of this FO for me. There is no reason not to put Varland there right now.

I didn't think you had any more room left for nails with this FO...🙂

[JD-TWINS]

It would be great to skip a start or two for Ober! No 6 man rotation/piggyback. Maeda is strong with the rebuilt arm & rest he got early this year & pitching well. Skip a start in late September.

Gray & Lopez could use 1 skip each at some point mid-month. Sooner the better.

4 starters in Playoffs is plenty with the travel days in 7 games series………..5 starters may be an advantage just because teams don’t see the same guy twice in a week. I think we go with Lopez, Gray, Maeda, & Ober in rotation & with Ryan, Kuechel, Varland, Pagan, Thielbar, Jax, & Duran. ……4 starters & 7 relievers gives us 15 bats in October.

[JD-TWINS]

An aside from topic:

Kepler - .244BA - .792OPS

Solano - .282BA - .770OPS

Jeffers - .288BA - .884OPS

Wallner - .244BA - .878OPS

Julien - .285 - .857OPS

Lewis - .328 - .885OPS

When Polanco - Correa - Taylor - etc. are your weak links, your line-up is in good shape! Never gonna be perfect, but if we could get Kirilloff (.270BA - .799OPS) back we stack up with anyone in baseball!

Get the pitchers some rest by utilizing Kuechel & Varland over last 33 starts & am optimistic about hosting first round.