Twins' Pitching Puzzle: Unraveling Bailey Ober's Role as Playoffs Approach

There's no doubt about it. The Twins wouldn't be where they are today without the steadying presence of Bailey Ober in their rotation for the bulk of the season. He's surprised many with his ability to control his fastball up in the zone while limiting walks as good as anyone. He's been the unsung hero of the team's biggest asset - their starting rotation. 

Okay, he has received plenty of praise this year, so maybe he's not so unsung anymore, but the fact remains that Ober has been a critical contributor to the team's modest success. 

But some interesting variables have come into play as the 2023 season rounds third and embarks on its home stretch. Ober has started to show cracks in his last seven starts, which is unsurprising for a young hurler. But the Twins now have a handful of options for their starting rotation, and they are entering the same stage of the season where things went off the rails a year ago.

Indeed, the club will want to monitor his workload now that he's established a new high mark for innings pitched. That could mean skipping a start here and there or getting an extra day of rest when available. A likely scenario is to give him a quicker hook within each game when possible. Old-timers and zealots who cling to the outdated concept of pitch count being the critical motivating factor for these decisions will hate that idea. Still, it makes sense if the team hopes to keep Ober healthy while making sure he remains in the starting rotation. 

We saw that play out in real-time in Tuesday's 7-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Ober avoided a big blow through five innings, giving up two earned runs while throwing just 78 pitches. But out of the 13 balls put into play against him in those five innings, more than half had an exit velocity of 93.5 MPH or more. Yes, it was great that Ober could wiggle out of significant damage. But it's hard to look at the batted-ball results - combined with allowing three walks - and conclude that he was dominating. 

And that's been his story for the last seven starts. Since the All-Star break, Ober has pitched 36 innings to a 5.25 ERA, with a 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk numbers have stayed consistent, but he's giving up a lethal amount of home runs (2.25 HR/9), and opposing hitters are boasting a .311 batting average against him. That's cause for concern, especially because Ober has thrown more innings this year than in any season of his career, with six weeks remaining on the schedule. 

So what's next? Since it's impossible to fathom the Twins shutting Ober down entirely at any point, there are only so many options. Does he continue to start with added rest days? Should he get an earlier hook on a game-to-game basis, regardless of how well he's pitching? Will the club change his role based on the available rotation options?

While he's been shakier than usual in the last month, Ober is still one of the five best options for the Twins' starting rotation as they head into a crucial stretch to a hopeful playoff run. He tends to steady himself as the game goes along, just as he did on Tuesday night. When going through the order for a third time, Ober has limited his opponents to just a .271 slugging percentage, which is sixth-best among starting pitchers, according to Inside Edge. In those scenarios, he has only walked two batters all year, as well. So, as the game goes on, Ober limits damage and baserunners, giving many the impression that he's rolling. 

That accounts for much of the fan outrage any time he gets lifted with fewer than 90 pitches, and it also makes things tricky when determining if he would be the proper candidate to move to a piggyback and bullpen role at some point, as was suggested in Dan Hayes' recent piece for The Athletic. On the one hand, there's merit in limiting his exposure, and innings total at this point in the season, but on the other hand, it's logical to keep him in a position where he's had the most success despite his recent struggles. 

So what will happen when Joe Ryan returns to the rotation if all five current starters remain healthy and relatively effective? That point is approaching rapidly. It'll be worth watching how the Twins navigate Ober and the rest of their starting staff, especially if they make it into the postseason.

What do you think will happen with the Twins' rotation mix? What do you want to happen? In the comment section below, let us know your thoughts about Ober's season and role.