2024 Roster/Payroll

[Cypower]

Looking at all the young guys coming up lately got me thinking towards the off-season and what’s to come or what could come. I think they’ll have plenty of money to spend if they choose to as the roster I’ve built comes to about $109. I didn’t include any free agents, trades, or anything like that. 

For arbitration players like Jeffers and Castro I just tried to make an educated guess as best as possible. If arb players cost a little more or a little less it’s not going to drastically change things I don’t think. 
 

Looking at the lineup there’s lots of things to like. Lots of controllable youth that has been producing. Hopefully Miranda can get healthy this off-season and perform as we saw him last year. I think it’ll be important to add a RH hitting corner bat and someone who can play CF. Maybe the CF is Lewis or Austin Martin? Or maybe the Twins trade Polanco for something? I really don’t see Larnach on the roster next year either. 
 

For pitching this is where they could spend some money I feel. Either trade for a high end starter or try to sign another starter to add more depth. It’d be nice to add another late inning bullpen piece along with a middle relief option. I don’t see Alcala and Stewart being able to be counted on. Thielbar is also going to be 37. Need to look for a dependable LH pitcher probably. Could they trade Polanco for a starter? Could they move Larnach for a bullpen piece? Lots of youth knocking on the door at AAA. 
 

With this current roster they are at about $109 million and that’s a lot of money left to add pieces to build a great team. Starting in another year some of the young pieces are going to start getting more expensive. 

[FlyingFinn]

Polanco out, Farmer on roster. Julien at 2B. Lee at 3B, Lewis in CF, Buxton at DH, Miranda starts out in AAA. Austin Martin on the team. Larnach in AAA. Funderburk in place of Moran. Free agent in place of Winder. Leaves without a long reliever but someone will be hurt on the pitching staff and Sands or someone can be that guy.

[Heiny]

Players on your roster that may not be on the team - Polanco, Kepler,  Larnach, Castro, Miranda.  Pitchers - Alcala, Moran, Winder.   That's 24.4M on postion players, and 2.4M on pitchers.  That's 26.6M off the roster that could be replaced by guys like Martin, Farmer, Gordon, Lee, Funderburk, Floro, Henriquez, Sands, Richardson, among others not on the 40 man.  But I agree that there should be money for the spending.  At this point it just looks to me that it may be a little too early to tell.  I'm not real high on the free agent market for the coming year, but there certainly could be some trades.  If the Twins hold with the current budget level this team could be vastly improved.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Players on your roster that may not be on the team - Polanco, Kepler,  Larnach, Castro, Miranda.  Pitchers - Alcala, Moran, Winder.   That's 24.4M on postion players, and 2.4M on pitchers.  That's 26.6M off the roster that could be replaced by guys like Martin, Farmer, Gordon, Lee, Funderburk, Floro, Henriquez, Sands, Richardson, among others not on the 40 man.  But I agree that there should be money for the spending.  At this point it just looks to me that it may be a little too early to tell.  I'm not real high on the free agent market for the coming year, but there certainly could be some trades.  If the Twins hold with the current budget level this team could be vastly improved.

Agreed, and the Pohlads might tighten the purse strings a bit. One never knows…

[NotAboutWinning]

19 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, and the Pohlads might tighten the purse strings a bit. One never knows…

The loss of the Bally revenue has got to have an effect on payroll going forward. MLB or whomever takes up the broadcasts is not going to pay anywhere near those $$$.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

27 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

The loss of the Bally revenue has got to have an effect on payroll going forward. MLB or whomever takes up the broadcasts is not going to pay anywhere near those $$$.

Hard to say, there might be other broadcasters willing to pay as much or more. There might not with cable on its last gasp

[jorgenswest]

On 8/19/2023 at 1:17 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Polanco out, Farmer on roster. Julien at 2B. Lee at 3B, Lewis in CF, Buxton at DH, Miranda starts out in AAA. Austin Martin on the team. Larnach in AAA. Funderburk in place of Moran. Free agent in place of Winder. Leaves without a long reliever but someone will be hurt on the pitching staff and Sands or someone can be that guy.

I wonder how much you would pay for Farmer’s third year arb at 33. I looked at last year’s arb 3 players and really couldn’t find a comp because most similar players were not tendered an offer. For example Luke Voit had a close second year arb salary (5.45 million) with a season of 0.2 fWAR. He was projected by MLBTR for 8.2 million. Farmer starts this year higher at 5.85 and has 0.8 fWAR. Would that project him for 8.6 million or more?

Another comp is Urshela. Urshela was at 6.55 and projected at 9.2. He asked for 10 and lost getting 8.4 instead. He probably gets low 9s if he asks for that amount. The Twins did tender a deal for Urshela but likely had a trade in place to give control to the Angels. Urshela was going into his age 31 season and had a better arb 2 season. I don’t think they find a similar trade partner for Farmer.

I think Polanco has for more upside for what is likely less than 2 million dollars more in comparison. That amount is small and not going to impact the roster and budget. If they pay Farmer that arb award they won’t be releasing him and he likely will decline further at age 33. In my mind the choice is Polanco or neither and I am leaning Polanco.

If neither they could try to pick up someone in the 2.5 million range that would hopefully be a salary they would be willing to cut loose. Solano was in that range this year. Farmer may not find offers much better as a free agent.

[Jocko87]

10 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

The loss of the Bally revenue has got to have an effect on payroll going forward. MLB or whomever takes up the broadcasts is not going to pay anywhere near those $$$.

They turned down the same money again, they have to believe there is better out there.

These are the discussions I would love to watch.  How much of the comfort with the Correa contract was the controlled youngsters?  Nice to have a young core that they can have a good idea on costs for the next 3-4 years.

[tony&rodney]

Good topic for the postseason. 

Expect trades (possibly one or more of your favorite guys) and a reduced payroll.

[Brandon]

There should still be money to sign a starting pitcher and a reliever or two.  I expect the Twins to go dumpster diving for relievers.  They may sign one for a 4 or 5 million 1-year contract or 2.  I doubt Larnarch and Walner will be on the Twins.  I think it's either one or the other with them.  Gordon will still be around to be a backup OF.  The Twins will still want a backup IF.  As far as starting pitchers go, they won't want both Paddack and Varland in the same rotation especially since they don't have a viable 6th starter in AAA yet.  I can see the Twins signing someone over the offseason.  They will have the money based on the budget.  and the Fact that they will want a short-term starter I can see them resigning Maeda on a 2-year deal or someone like Odorizzi on a 1-year deal.  I do think they will want to watch costs unless the Twins win the World Series then I can see them getting to 130-140 million payroll level.  I do agree that the spending will be less, but I think the Twins will have a budget closer to 130 million.  

[ToddlerHarmon]

11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

On 8/19/2023 at 2:17 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Expand  

I wonder how much you would pay for Farmer’s third year arb at 33

Love your breakdown of this and just wanted to comment that Farmer had a huge opportunity with Correa struggling, Miranda down, Polanco hurt, Lewis hurt, and no one able to hit left handed pitching, but he just did not produce. If he had, I gotta wonder if Lewis would be in CF right now. Instead, he is staring down the barrel of a non-tender at age 33.

[ToddlerHarmon]

On 8/19/2023 at 12:20 PM, Cypower said:

Looking at all the young guys coming up lately got me thinking towards the off-season and what’s to come or what could come

Your roster is a fair baseline. I think Martin and Lee compete with Larnach and Miranda for roster spots, and hopefully fill the RH bat need. I also think both Maeda and, gasp, Pagan get signed, as the Twins waited on their return to effectiveness, so there should be comfort for both team and players. Given all that, your point of plenty of payroll room stands.

[Trov]

Outside of Otani there is nothing too great in FA wise to fit the timeline of payroll.  Yes, we have some cheaper guys next couple of years, but the better they do, the more they will cost us even in the 3 years of arb years.  There are a couple of middle of road pitchers that will be looking for 4 to 6 year deals is my guess. Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urías, Eduardo Rodriguez are the top starters that would be looking to get new big deals.  Kershaw would be a type to try to sign to a 1 or 2 year big money deal, but he is never likely to leave Dodgers.  

For the right price I would be willing to sign any of those guys, but most will be looking for longer term deals that could be an issue at end of the deal when we will need to start to pay guys like Lewis.  There are no Verlander/Scherzer type starters that are older and will take bigger 1 to 2 year deals, or guys that need to do prove it type deals outside of Severino from Yankees, he has been terrible this year after looking like a top arm for years.  Do we want to gamble on that? 

In terms of pen arms, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel,  David Robertson, are all some end of pen options that could be had on 1 to 2 year deals, but they are all aging and have had struggles at times in past, bouncing back this year, but any one of them could fall off the cliff too.  I would be fine with going after 1 or 2 of them on 1 to 2 year deals.  Hader I would be willing to look at 3 year deal but I never want to give a relief guy more than that. 

In terms of trades too early to speculate on that.  The issue with trades of a top starting pitcher will be hard to do because it will require giving up some of young top talent, that allows us to have a low payroll.  Someone wrote about going all in for Otani, on a crazy high per year short term deal, would he go for it?  If so, I would be all in on that idea, but my guess he will take the longer term super high value deal than short term high annual value.