The Twins Should Let the Pirates, Well, Pirate The Farm

[Jeremy Nygaard]

It's been a long time since the Twins have won a playoff game, let alone a playoff series. You knew that, right? The streak has got to end sometime and it feels like this year is a good of year as any to put an end to it. The American League Central is, as the kids like to say, dogwater. And if you can hang a pennant for winning this trash division... then all bets are off. The 2019 Nationals were a hot mess - 12 games below .500 before Memorial Day - yet found a way to win the whole dang thing! Why can't the 2023 Twins be next?

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the Nationals of 2019 were able to get it together before the end of July (but only to the tune of 57-51) and played very well down the stretch to finish 93-69.

But the reality of that is that they still narrowly escaped a one-game playoff with the Brewers and went the distance with the Dodgers in the NLDS and the Astros in the World Series. Sure, they swept the Cardinals, but the difference between being the World Champion and not even being a memorable team was razor thin.

And that can be the Twins this year. Literally, every team in the American League is doing their best anti-Nancy Kerrigan, "Why not me?!" "Why not now!?"

The Rangers are good, but adding help like their ship is sinking. The Orioles are good, but they're average age is young enough to have like six fathers on the Yankees team. The Rays are slipping. The Astros. The Angels. The others in the American League East. They all think they can win the American League pennant and the way that the playoffs work in baseball; they're not wrong.

So, back to the Twins. It's time to make the move. I'm not suggesting blowing it up for this year's team. I am, however, more than willing to accelerate the timeline of certain players. And by that I mean, turn a current prospect and their seven years of control into less years of control of a player who is ready to contribute right now.

That big prospect is Emmanuel Rodriguez.

I recorded a little five-minute video explaining why I'd trade him. I was on Twitter Sunday night posting about my fears of what he turns into.

And I'm calling the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates have two players that I'm mostly intrigued by: Reliever David Bednar and outfielder/first baseman Connor Joe. Would it be possible to pry both players away from them? I'm not sure.

Bednar is 28 years old, but will enter arbitration for the first time this offseason. He's a luxury: a closer on a bad team. His numbers are relatively consistent over the last three years at 11.4-12.0 K/9, 2.7-2.8 BB/9, a WHIP between 0.97-1.10. There's always risk in trading for a reliever - ALWAYS! - but he's been really good since becoming a regular in Pittsburgh in 2021. This isn't Jorge Lopez. This is a significant step up. So much so that the price is going to be extremely high.

Joe is even older. He will turn 31 in two weeks. But he's not even arbitration-eligible until following next season. The reason I'm buying Joe, though, is because of his ability to hit left-handed pitchers and play two positions of need (left field and first base). An .858 OPS against lefties is what the lineup needs and will continue to need as they churn through left-handed outfielders for the foreseeable future.

The Pirates almost certainly ask for Brooks Lee - and they should - but I'd hold strong to Emmanuel Rodriguez being the headliner. They passed on Dylan Crews, here's the outfielder they need. Rodriguez would be too much to give up for Joe and not enough for Bednar, but you've at least closed the gap enough to have a conversation.

What else would it take: I'd be shocked if it didn't take one of the AAA/MLB outfielders in Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. I'd let them take their pick. I'm sure it would take a young pitcher - like Louie Varland maybe. I wouldn't be overly inclined to trade Marco Raya, but if they want to take one of those 2022 drafted pitchers, ok. If they want two, I probably wouldn't walk away from the table either.

They'd probably ask for a lottery ticket or two: Bryan Acuna carries extra value because his last name is Acuna and not Smith. Before you go too crazy, you'd have no issue trading Bryan Smith, born in Manchester, New Hampshire and struggling in the Florida Complex League. But he's Ronald's brother, born in Manchester, New Hampshire and struggling in the Florida Complex League, and the last one just netted Max Scherzer and $36 million. And there are a dozen others who you've maybe heard their name, but are six years away from hearing their name at Target Field... if they're lucky.

It might also take more than that and that's fine. And it's made possible by headlining a deal with a Top 50 prospect who might never swing the bat enough to hit.

Are Bednar and Joe enough to push the Twins over the top? Who knows. Would the Twins regret trading Rodriguez, Wallner, Varland, Acuna and some combination of others for them? Who knows on that either! But someone is going to come out on top in the American League Central and someone is going to win the American League Championship Series.

Why not the Twins?

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[MGX]

E-Rod for a reliever. I get that Bednar is good, but no way would I want the Twins to consider this. No interest in trading for Connor Joe at all.

It sounds like the Guardians just traded Civale for a prospect. We can win the division with what we have. If we're not good enough as is then Bednar & Joe aren't going to be enough of a difference to help us win the division & in the playoffs.

I hope the Twins stand pat or if they do anything add a reliever like Hernandez in KC if the cost is reasonable.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

7 minutes ago, MGX said:

E-Rod for a reliever. I get that Bednar is good, but no way would I want the Twins to consider this. No interest in trading for Connor Joe at all.

Maybe Bednar/Joe isn't the target, but the idea of using Rodriguez as a headliner is intriguing to me. Maybe it's Keller and they deal a different pitcher. Or maybe it's a different team. I don't know. Main point: they should be willing to move him for the right return.

[Linus]

If they can solve the right handed hitting outfield problem with 3 years control I would move E Rod. 

[LastOnePicked]

Good article, and a position very contrary to mine. I've stated on multiple threads that I think the window of contention slammed shut after 2020, and that a rebuild is overdue.

HOWEVER ...

I could accept a "push all the clips in" trade deadline IF AND ONLY IF I saw some sense of urgency from the FO. Urgency means ...

Firing Rocco immediately. He's proven incapable of leading, inspiring or developing the team. Replace him with a seasoned manager with playoff experience, if possible.

Firing Tingler immediately. He's got the stink of the 2021 Padres still all over him, and the only thing I've heard him "credited" for this year is being the "Gallo whisperer." How has that worked out?

Firing Popkins immediately. The Twins approach at the plate is beyond ridiculous at this point.

Releasing Gallo and Pagan. Enough is enough.

Once you've cleared out the clear barriers to success, then sure, pry that window open and give 2023 your best shot. But you could put any all-star on this club with this terrible management, soft spirit and low morale and it would wreck anybody you bring in at the deadline, no matter how big a name. Change the culture first,

[D.C Twins]

Dude... Cleveland and Chicago are selling big.

Kansas City and Detroit are well... Kansas City and Detroit.

Our division is such a Sh- Show that we could sell AND accidentally win the division!

[Vanimal46]

Dear god no. 

[JDubs]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Firing Rocco immediately. He's proven incapable of leading, inspiring or developing the team. Replace him with a seasoned manager with playoff experience, if possible.

This is just wildly overstating the role of baseball manager. How'd hiring Tony La Russa work out for the White Sox? He's a seasoned manager with tons of playoff experience, he surely elevated that talented but underperforming team to new heights, right? I mean, if that's all a team needs to break through to the next level, surely the 2022 White Sox went deep into the postseason, right? Now to take a big drink of water and look up how that went...

[MGX]

3 hours ago, JDubs said:

This is just wildly overstating the role of baseball manager. How'd hiring Tony La Russa work out for the White Sox? He's a seasoned manager with tons of playoff experience, he surely elevated that talented but underperforming team to new heights, right? I mean, if that's all a team needs to break through to the next level, surely the 2022 White Sox went deep into the postseason, right? Now to take a big drink of water and look up how that went...

Tony La Russa's teams won nearly 3000 games in his managerial career along with 6 Pennants & 3 World Series. Rocco Baldelli's teams have won a little over 300 while playing just over .500 ball & nothing in the post-season. 

There is a huge difference in those two managers. The 2021 Sox won 93 games under La Russa & last year they were 63-65. So his teams did fine. Both seasons under his leadership the winning % was higher than Rocco's was here.

It seemed the comment above was directed at the way Rocco's teams have played - they look lost & show no sense of urgency. 

 

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, JDubs said:

How'd hiring Tony La Russa work out for the White Sox?

How'd hiring Rocco Baldelli work out for the Twins?

Jokes aside, you've picked a good cherry. Perhaps the Twins could avoid hiring La Russa, I agree.

[umterp23]

I like the idea but maybe not the partner.  E-Rod is 20 years old, lefty/lefty OF with some speed, some power.  Currently at Cedar Rapids and not necessarily lighting it on fire but does fit the mold of 30% K rate the Twins seem to live with.  At best 3 years from seeing target field but could be longer.  Are we losing anything at this point by including him in a trade?  I don't think so.

Pirates are truly the Pirates and always play the 5 year plan every year is year one of the plan.  Ownership runs the team as a business and don't care much for worrying about being a true competitor.  Living in Pittsburgh area, the running joke is Penguins make the playoffs and then Steelers training camp conversation and activity ramps up after July.  So Pirates, get one month of attention.

Wallner and Larnach, redundant attributes and both may not be long term fixtures either, so do we lose one of those guys and miss a beat?  Not sure we would.

Somebody has to win the division, Twins have the talent to be that team.  Playoffs is a crap shoot, got hot and win one game one and monkey starts to jump off your back.  Who knows at that point

[JD-TWINS]

Bednar is a great Target. Experienced, durable, & effective.

Martin - Larnach - young arm other than Festa or Raya.

Bednar is a difference maker!! Can use Duran as a stopper at any point in game. Bridge to 9th with Jax & Co. and let Bednar close!!

This would be fantastic - too good to be true.

[Larry Janisewski]

19 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Dude... Cleveland and Chicago are selling big.

Kansas City and Detroit are well... Kansas City and Detroit.

Our division is such a Sh- Show that we could sell AND accidentally win the division!

Do you mean the Royals that just swept the Twins???