Twins 5, A's 4: Joey Gallo Plays Hero in Sloppy Twins Victory

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, Shobae said:

I mean I don't think that trend means a whole lot given we're looking at a small sample (his PAs this season) of a small sample (his homers) of a small sample (the score when he hits them). Also if you look at the numbers Gallo ranks third in situational wins on the twins (150 PA minimum). Better Buxton, Kirilloff and Jeffers who with the exception of buxton get more praise for their hitting. Though if you don't adjust for LI or game state then Gallo ranks 6th in RE24. But I'm not super concerned about the numbers his style of play and how mad it makes people is far more valuable to me. Obviously if he's bad then yeah people are justified in criticizing his play (not as a person as often happens). But when he gets hot it's all the more satisfying to watch. And that to me is worth the 11 mil they spent on him this off season.  

Of course home runs are a small sample, that's kind of the problem with him.  I was trying to be nice, but the data didn't even support me on that when I split them out.  Would you prefer to discuss the larger sample size of his strikeouts instead?

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So Miranda got hurt over the all star break? Only the Twins can get injured when all of baseball (except the best of the best) are on a break.

I made the assumption that he was working hard over the break both on throwing and hitting. The work on the off days can have more strain than a game.

[Shobae]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Of course home runs are a small sample.  I was trying to be nice, but the data didn't even support me on that when I split them out.  Would you prefer to discuss the larger sample size of strikeouts instead?

Sure, but the fact remains that Gallo is a better hitter, context neutral or sensitive, than most of the guys they employ. Unlike the other dude's who strikeout over a 30% clip on this team Gallo has elite power which is why he has the offensive production he does (only Julien has a higher slugging percentage).

[JD-TWINS]

59 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

That's true but other also play well against good teams.  The Twins are 9 wins under a 50/50 record against all other teams.  Not really playoff material to my mind.

We lost 2 games in 10 innings v. Orioles & won 2 of 6 - played Boston well - played Yankees well (w/Judge) - played Angels well - played Dodgers well - played Houston well. Some tough losses mixed into these series.

Played a couple good games v. both Tampa Bay & Atlanta but lost all 6 (6 of your 9 v. baseball’s best 2 teams) these offset our KC success. We’re a game under .500 in 7 games v. Tigers & a game under .500 in 7 with Guardians.

A bunch of good teams in our rear view mirror!

If we stay above .500 in division, the balance of our schedule should allow us to level up our record v. non division teams.

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, Shobae said:

Sure, but the fact remains that Gallo is a better hitter, context neutral or sensitive, than most of the guys they employ. Unlike the other dude's who strikeout over a 30% clip on this team Gallo has elite power which is why he has the offensive production he does (only Julien has a higher slugging percentage).

Usually context-neutral tells you what you need to know, but if by "situational wins" you mean the WPA/LI column in b-r.com then look at the next column over, Clutch.  Gallo ranks among the bottom of the team.  This matches the "eye test" that a lot of us here have been seeing with him.  I don't remember ever finding as much discrepancy between OPS and its relative stat WAR (WAA actually), versus the situational WPA.  WPA has its flaws but usually it tracks with WAA.  Gallo has for the most part come up small when the situation is big.  That's been a trend in his career stats, which I never looked at until now that he's on the Twins, but it's even more pronounced this season.  I dislike questioning clutch ability in most cases and I don't think he lacks heart, but pitchers seem to be able to manipulate his production and the numbers in Gallo's case just aren't good.

[Shobae]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Usually context-neutral tells you what you need to know, but if by "situational wins" you mean the WPA/LI column in b-r.com then look at the next column over, Clutch.  Gallo ranks among the bottom of the team.  This matches the "eye test" that a lot of us here have been seeing with him.  I don't remember ever finding as much discrepancy between OPS and its relative stat WAR (WAA actually), versus the situational WPA.  WPA has its flaws but usually it tracks with WAA.  Gallo has for the most part come up small when the situation is big.  That's been a trend in his career stats, which I never looked at until now that he's on the Twins, but it's even more pronounced this season.  I dislike questioning clutch ability in most cases and I don't think he lacks heart, but pitchers seem to be able to manipulate his production and the numbers in Gallo's case just aren't good.

Yeah situation wins in WPA/LI and you're right that his clutch score (WPA added in high leverage compared to WPA added in lower leverage iirc) is pretty bad. Also if you just use straight up WPA it's negative but if you actually adjust it for something he can't control, what leverage index he comes up to bat with, you see he's been adding WPA relative to the situations he's been in. So even if he sucks in high leverage his value in other contexts is enough to make up for that. He's certainly better than Jeffers on all counts except clutch (jeffers isn't god awful but still bad) but since Jeffers "only" strikes out 29.3% of the time and his a better context neutral hitter he gets a pass from most fans. Just isn't consistent thinking.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Shobae said:

Sure, but the fact remains that Gallo is a better hitter, context neutral or sensitive, than most of the guys they employ. Unlike the other dude's who strikeout over a 30% clip on this team Gallo has elite power which is why he has the offensive production he does (only Julien has a higher slugging percentage).

Gallo is a hitter for which OPS is incredibly misleading. 

He fails to put the ball in play so often he more than cancels out the few HRs he hits.

He has 16 HRs...and 30 RBI.

Thirty. 

3 sac flies IN HIS CAREER.

SLG is only valuable in that it contributes to scoring runs. When you don't drive in runs, theoretical mumbo jumbo is just that...mumbo jumbo. It doesn't demonstrate some greater understanding of baseball. In fact, just the opposite. 

Gallo is not a good offensive player. He's awful. Much worse than a cursory glance at OPS indicates. 

His 16 HRs do not represent a positive for this offense.

[RickOShea]

Teams try to win games in order to draw fans.  Obviously, not everyone wins enough, so the teams need to provide other means of entertainment.  This may range from a decent baseball team, to a nice stadium, variety of concessions, mascots to entertain the kids and t-shirts shot from a hand cannon.

So, Gallo fills a portion of that secondary entertainment.  People love homers and want to cheer for the guy who hits the 400 foot blast.  Gallo fills that role, although not often enough for most of us.  The average fan (kid or adult) doesn't really get that involved in the myriad of stats measuring Gallo's effectiveness.  They just want to see Gallo take a mighty swing and send the ball into the stands.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I made the assumption that he was working hard over the break both on throwing and hitting. The work on the off days can have more strain than a game.

According to Rocco. This is the same issue as he had in ST and never has gotten completely healed. If that's the case why would he not be resting it? 

 

[RickOShea]

Texas beats Cleveland 2-0!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SwainZag]

9 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

According to Rocco. This is the same issue as he had in ST and never has gotten completely healed. If that's the case why would he not be resting it? 

 

Because he wants to play?  Because he sees his role being taken.   It's so easy for us from the sidelines to just toss guys on the IL.  A young competitive player downplaying an injury to stay in the lineup....... not the first nor last time you will hear of it.