I Believe in Jorge Lopez

[Ted Wiedmann]

Just being back on a Major League mound is a victory for Lopez, but he has more to offer than a feel-good story.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

July 4th was a great night for Twins fans, not just because of a win that involved all parts of the team, but in particular because Jorge Lopez made his return to the Twins. The outing itself wasn't anything to celebrate, and from a pure baseball standpoint, maybe the opposite, but on a much bigger scale, it was one of the best moments this season. 

Those with experience with mental health struggles, whether your own or someone close, know the impact they can have on life. None of us knew the exact extent of what was happening, but it must have been challenging for things to come to the point of stepping away from his profession. I think this took tremendous courage from Lopez, and I'm happy he seems to have received the needed help and will continue to address his ongoing mental health issues. 

Jorge Lopez made his return in blazing fashion. Although he only threw eight pitches, four were sinkers, averaging 97.8 MPH and topping out at 98.5 MPH. As stated before, the outing wasn't spectacular, as he allowed a run and only generated one swing-and-miss. Still, the return of his velocity was encouraging, especially since it declined dramatically right before his IL stint. 

So why should we believe Lopez will turn things around? He was brilliant in April but faltered in May and June, and it seemed like his season was declining, as was his stuff. Two things make me optimistic about Jorge Lopez: pitch usage and Stuff+ numbers.

It was written about before on Twins Daily, but Jorge Lopez had been throwing an unusual amount of four-seam fastballs this season, 20.4% of his pitches after only using it 4.5% of the time last year. Hitters are currently hitting .438 with a .875 SLG against his four-seam fastball. While 89 pitches might seem too small of a sample for judgment, Lopez's four-seam has never performed well in any season. I think part of the successful transition to the bullpen was lowering the pitch's usage. 

Lopez also significantly increased his slider usage from 10.7% in 2022 to 20.6% this year. While not as bad as his four-seamer, the pitch still hasn't garnered quality results. Of pitchers with at least ten plate appearances against the pitch, Lopez's slider ranks 272nd out of 358 pitchers in xwOBA at .345 and 236th out of 358 in whiff% at 29.2%. Not great. 

However, Jorge Lopez's curveball in the same qualifier ranks 69th out of 198 pitchers in xwOBA at .252 and 28th out of 198 in whiff% at 41.4%. His curve has also generated a .203 xBA and .333 xSLG, in addition to its excellent swing and miss capability. Fewer four-seam fastballs and sliders with more sinkers and curveballs could help Lopez regain some form. 

Even without adjusting his pitch distribution, I still believe in Jorge Lopez's improvement this season; as mentioned before, Lopez rates highly in Stuff+. If you are unfamiliar with Stuff+, it essentially measures the characteristics of a pitch, its speed, vertical and horizontal movement, release, spin rate/efficiency, etc. The league average for Stuff+ is 100. I will link an article by Owen McGrattan on Fangraphs that explains Stuff+ and how it can be used in more detail. It also details how stuff+ can be more predictive than standard metrics like ERA, K%-BB%, RA/9 and when a sample size becomes large enough to use. 

Back to Lopez, among qualified relievers on Fangraphs, his 114 Stuff+ ranks tied for 47th out of 170 relievers. This doesn't guarantee above-league-average production from Lopez. Still, it certainly indicates that a very projectable metric has Lopez in a similar Stuff+ range as other elite relievers such as Devin Williams (118 Stuff+), Brusdar Graterol (116 Stuff+), and Michael King (113 Stuff+). 

Stuff+ also helps explain why the Twins wanted to experiment with a four-seam fastball and slider. Lopez's four-seam grades at 106 Stuff+ better than his sinker at 103 Stuff+, and his slider grades at 138 Stuff+ higher than his curveball at 127 Stuff+. While current results have not been as hoped, the reasoning for trying makes sense. 

I believe Lopez can conquer his struggles in Minnesota. He has shown the ability to overcome difficulties in his career and has just returned from maybe the biggest hurdle he'll face. More than just the numbers, Lopez has my support as a player and as a person. He has endured something that could have destroyed his career, and I am rooting for him regardless of how he pitches and for his career to be successful, even if not in a Twins uniform. 

 

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[Craig Arko]

Me too. Seems like a good, talented, young man. Hope he gets a chance to shine in the playoffs. 

[Dman]

I really like the guy and your article gives me hope that he can turn things around as we really need him back to who he was for this team to be better.

[TopGunn#22]

I said before the season started that he was the key guy in our pen.  Being able to consistently lock down the 8th and get a save or two when Duran can't go is essential for the Twins BP to succeed.  He's got GREAT "stuff."  He's an easy guy to cheer for.  I hope he can put all this behind him and go out and play like he's capable of.  Because when he's good...he's VERY GOOD.  

[DocBauer]

Absolutely rooting for him as an individual! He seems like a good guy and he's openly thanked the Twins for helping him get help.

Also rooting for him as a fan. His arm in the 7th and 8th innings is huge for the team. If Stewart and Thielbar can be back come August, with Jax looking good as ever, the back end of the pen looks really good.

[Ted Wiedmann]

51 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I said before the season started that he was the key guy in our pen.  Being able to consistently lock down the 8th and get a save or two when Duran can't go is essential for the Twins BP to succeed.  He's got GREAT "stuff."  He's an easy guy to cheer for.  I hope he can put all this behind him and go out and play like he's capable of.  Because when he's good...he's VERY GOOD.  

I think the most encouraging part of this is he might not even need to be an 8th inning guy. Jax has been great and with the emergence of Brock Stewart (who I very much believe in) his role can be significantly reduced from preseason expectations. If he regains 2022 form that would be great but he doesn't need to get all the way back. 

[rusty boots]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Me too. Seems like a good, talented, young man. Hope he gets a chance to shine in the playoffs. 

For what team? I doubt he will be dealt to a contender at the deadline

[william]

I think he would be  great to add  to the  BP another guy you should look out for is Kody Funderburk Big lefty .

high strikeout rate he would good set man . question is Kody Funderburk is a rule 5 or will he be dealt at the deadline. 

[DFlow]

Do I want the guy to succeed? Yes.

Has he proven any level of success in his career outside of the first three months of 2022? No.

Sometimes guys can find it later in their career. Most of the time, they are the same cooked dog they always have been with a stroke of luck mixed in.

[Ted Wiedmann]

11 minutes ago, DFlow said:

Do I want the guy to succeed? Yes.

Has he proven any level of success in his career outside of the first three months of 2022? No.

Sometimes guys can find it later in their career. Most of the time, they are the same cooked dog they always have been with a stroke of luck mixed in.

Don't think it's fair to compare his innings as a starter to his innings as a reliever. I think a lot of cooked dogs come from lack of stuff, guys like Andrew Albers who have immediate success but are later exploited for not being MLB caliber arms. I have plenty of confidence in Lopez's stuff, while maybe he doesn't reach the level he was at in 2022 I think it's fair to think he'll be at least an average Major League reliever. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

30 minutes ago, william said:

I think he would be  great to add  to the  BP another guy you should look out for is Kody Funderburk Big lefty .

high strikeout rate he would good set man . question is Kody Funderburk is a rule 5 or will he be dealt at the deadline. 

Not huge on soft-tossing reliver prospects, even less so if they don't have elite secondaries. I would be curious to see his extension and his FB IVB, can't ignore those swing and miss numbers. 

[DFlow]

20 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Don't think it's fair to compare his innings as a starter to his innings as a reliever. I think a lot of cooked dogs come from lack of stuff, guys like Andrew Albers who have immediate success but are later exploited for not being MLB caliber arms. I have plenty of confidence in Lopez's stuff, while maybe he doesn't reach the level he was at in 2022 I think it's fair to think he'll be at least an average Major League reliever. 

It’s about empirical evidence. The reality is Jorge Lopez doesn’t have any track record of MLB success and has demonstrated struggles in the mental aspect of the game. I can name you dozens of players who had a great three months and went on to mediocre/nothing burger careers.

We also have to show that the underlying data points are horrific. His statcast page looks like a AA pitcher being forced into the big leagues. His xBA, xSLG, Hard Hit %, Avg. Exit Velocity, Whiff %, and K% are horrific over a large sample size. This was consistent with what we saw last fall after acquisition too. His pitch sequencing has been fairly questionable and he lets his emotions get the best of him on the mound. Half of those meatballs from this year were after his little anger spouts on the mound. 
 

This is also in stark contrast to Griffin Jax. Jax had a rough month earlier this year but the data showed very strong data points for statistical correction. Since May, Jax is the pitcher we thought he was after a bit of bad luck. Lopez; however, creates his own bad luck.

Right now there’s no tangible data to say he’s any better than a Derek Law or Trevor Megill type reliever. Guys with good fastballs who can’t get the mental side of the game down. That’s why they bounce between AAA and the Bigs. He’s a great guy to have as your last guy in the pen or in your AAA system if he were young enough. Our only problem is we have another basket case in Pagan holding that role now. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

29 minutes ago, DFlow said:

It’s about empirical evidence. The reality is Jorge Lopez doesn’t have any track record of MLB success and has demonstrated struggles in the mental aspect of the game. I can name you dozens of players who had a great three months and went on to mediocre/nothing burger careers.

We also have to show that the underlying data points are horrific. His statcast page looks like a AA pitcher being forced into the big leagues. His xBA, xSLG, Hard Hit %, Avg. Exit Velocity, Whiff %, and K% are horrific over a large sample size. This was consistent with what we saw last fall after acquisition too. His pitch sequencing has been fairly questionable and he lets his emotions get the best of him on the mound. Half of those meatballs from this year were after his little anger spouts on the mound. 
 

This is also in stark contrast to Griffin Jax. Jax had a rough month earlier this year but the data showed very strong data points for statistical correction. Since May, Jax is the pitcher we thought he was after a bit of bad luck. Lopez; however, creates his own bad luck.

Right now there’s no tangible data to say he’s any better than a Derek Law or Trevor Megill type reliever. Guys with good fastballs who can’t get the mental side of the game down. That’s why they bounce between AAA and the Bigs. He’s a great guy to have as your last guy in the pen or in your AAA system if he were young enough. Our only problem is we have another basket case in Pagan holding that role now. 

There's half a season of tangible data that says he's better than Derek Law and Trevor Megill, and he has better stuff than either of them. Expected numbers are always going to underrate sinkerballers, even guys that have been good. 

Looking at data with Jax and Lopez are two different situations, trusting numbers with Jax is seeing he's been performing well on a per batter basis, Lopez it's trusting that when his stuff is as good as it is it's hard to be as bad as he's been. 

While maybe he never reaches 2022 again, I why he can't be a league average reliever. 

At the same time relievers are wildly unpredictable and maybe we've seen the end, I just trust Lopez's stuff more than what we've seen so far. 

[DFlow]

1 hour ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

There's half a season of tangible data that says he's better than Derek Law and Trevor Megill, and he has better stuff than either of them. Expected numbers are always going to underrate sinkerballers, even guys that have been good. 

Looking at data with Jax and Lopez are two different situations, trusting numbers with Jax is seeing he's been performing well on a per batter basis, Lopez it's trusting that when his stuff is as good as it is it's hard to be as bad as he's been. 

While maybe he never reaches 2022 again, I why he can't be a league average reliever. 

At the same time relievers are wildly unpredictable and maybe we've seen the end, I just trust Lopez's stuff more than what we've seen so far. 

We just went through his with Pagan. He had three good months and he's reverted back to who he has always been the past three years. Trevor Megill had three good months last year before going back to who he always was. Both of these guys statcasts look like the second coming of Prime Chapman compared to Jorge Lopez. 

The reality is "Stuff" only matters if you can properly locate your pitches. If this were a situation where he changed his arm slot or saw a noticeable increase in velo/spin rate than we could be having a conversation.  Good stuff that's center cut gets belted which is what has happened since we acquired Lopez. A lot of meatballs wont play in the bigs which is why his exit velocity data and xBA/xSLGs are so horrific. For perspective- these data points combined put him in the bottom 10% of baseball. That's someone who should be on the road to St. Paul rather then in a leverage situation. 

Best case scenario- we drop Pagan at the deadline for a quality medium leverage guy. Lopez can work his way up from the last spot and try and build confidence. I'm not trying to bury the guy but the data is overwhelmingly bad. With an abysmal offense, this team does not have a lot of room for error from the bullpen sadly. Putting Lopez in any leverage situation right now seems like a catastrophe waiting to happen (Pagan 2022). 

[Doctor Gast]

Great article, Ted! Understanding is important in this situation. I'm hoping for a full recovery for Lopez. Unfortunately, in Andrelton Simmons case he had serious problems related to covid. When he 1st came to the Twins he was doing great until he was venomously attacked by media & fanbase and never fully recover since.

[rwilfong86]

Great article, thanks for posting.

[jimbo92107]

Regardless how he does in baseball, I hope Jorge Lopez feels better about himself. An imperfect pitching performance does not indicate a flaw in your character.