I Believe in Jorge Lopez

I said before the season started that he was the key guy in our pen.  Being able to consistently lock down the 8th and get a save or two when Duran can't go is essential for the Twins BP to succeed.  He's got GREAT "stuff."  He's an easy guy to cheer for.  I hope he can put all this behind him and go out and play like he's capable of.  Because when he's good...he's VERY GOOD.  

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Me too. Seems like a good, talented, young man. Hope he gets a chance to shine in the playoffs. 

For what team? I doubt he will be dealt to a contender at the deadline

I think he would be  great to add  to the  BP another guy you should look out for is Kody Funderburk Big lefty .

high strikeout rate he would good set man . question is Kody Funderburk is a rule 5 or will he be dealt at the deadline. 

Do I want the guy to succeed? Yes.

Has he proven any level of success in his career outside of the first three months of 2022? No.

Sometimes guys can find it later in their career. Most of the time, they are the same cooked dog they always have been with a stroke of luck mixed in.

20 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Don't think it's fair to compare his innings as a starter to his innings as a reliever. I think a lot of cooked dogs come from lack of stuff, guys like Andrew Albers who have immediate success but are later exploited for not being MLB caliber arms. I have plenty of confidence in Lopez's stuff, while maybe he doesn't reach the level he was at in 2022 I think it's fair to think he'll be at least an average Major League reliever. 

It’s about empirical evidence. The reality is Jorge Lopez doesn’t have any track record of MLB success and has demonstrated struggles in the mental aspect of the game. I can name you dozens of players who had a great three months and went on to mediocre/nothing burger careers.

We also have to show that the underlying data points are horrific. His statcast page looks like a AA pitcher being forced into the big leagues. His xBA, xSLG, Hard Hit %, Avg. Exit Velocity, Whiff %, and K% are horrific over a large sample size. This was consistent with what we saw last fall after acquisition too. His pitch sequencing has been fairly questionable and he lets his emotions get the best of him on the mound. Half of those meatballs from this year were after his little anger spouts on the mound. 
 

This is also in stark contrast to Griffin Jax. Jax had a rough month earlier this year but the data showed very strong data points for statistical correction. Since May, Jax is the pitcher we thought he was after a bit of bad luck. Lopez; however, creates his own bad luck.

Right now there’s no tangible data to say he’s any better than a Derek Law or Trevor Megill type reliever. Guys with good fastballs who can’t get the mental side of the game down. That’s why they bounce between AAA and the Bigs. He’s a great guy to have as your last guy in the pen or in your AAA system if he were young enough. Our only problem is we have another basket case in Pagan holding that role now. 

1 hour ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

There's half a season of tangible data that says he's better than Derek Law and Trevor Megill, and he has better stuff than either of them. Expected numbers are always going to underrate sinkerballers, even guys that have been good. 

Looking at data with Jax and Lopez are two different situations, trusting numbers with Jax is seeing he's been performing well on a per batter basis, Lopez it's trusting that when his stuff is as good as it is it's hard to be as bad as he's been. 

While maybe he never reaches 2022 again, I why he can't be a league average reliever. 

At the same time relievers are wildly unpredictable and maybe we've seen the end, I just trust Lopez's stuff more than what we've seen so far. 

We just went through his with Pagan. He had three good months and he's reverted back to who he has always been the past three years. Trevor Megill had three good months last year before going back to who he always was. Both of these guys statcasts look like the second coming of Prime Chapman compared to Jorge Lopez. 

The reality is "Stuff" only matters if you can properly locate your pitches. If this were a situation where he changed his arm slot or saw a noticeable increase in velo/spin rate than we could be having a conversation.  Good stuff that's center cut gets belted which is what has happened since we acquired Lopez. A lot of meatballs wont play in the bigs which is why his exit velocity data and xBA/xSLGs are so horrific. For perspective- these data points combined put him in the bottom 10% of baseball. That's someone who should be on the road to St. Paul rather then in a leverage situation. 

Best case scenario- we drop Pagan at the deadline for a quality medium leverage guy. Lopez can work his way up from the last spot and try and build confidence. I'm not trying to bury the guy but the data is overwhelmingly bad. With an abysmal offense, this team does not have a lot of room for error from the bullpen sadly. Putting Lopez in any leverage situation right now seems like a catastrophe waiting to happen (Pagan 2022). 

Great article, Ted! Understanding is important in this situation. I'm hoping for a full recovery for Lopez. Unfortunately, in Andrelton Simmons case he had serious problems related to covid. When he 1st came to the Twins he was doing great until he was venomously attacked by media & fanbase and never fully recover since.

Regardless how he does in baseball, I hope Jorge Lopez feels better about himself. An imperfect pitching performance does not indicate a flaw in your character.