Angels 4, Twins 2: Twins Fail with Bases Loaded Once Again in the Series Finale

[John Belinski]

One number that shows the Twins have problems with men  on base is hitting into too many double plays. In Sunday's game LA hit into 0 double plays and Twins hit into 3 double plays.  We will not be a winning team until we solve that problem.

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Arraez is sitting at .382/.437/.478 right now; he's probably not a great example of Miami's offensive issues. 

Player OPS+

Luis Arraez 153

Alex Kirilloff 191

Joey Gallo 146

The Twins don't really miss Arraez at all.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

- All winter I bitched and moaned about the Urshela trade.   

You can stop now. It's like complaining about the Matt Capps trade.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

One number that shows the Twins have problems with men  on base is hitting into too many double plays. In Sunday's game LA hit into 0 double plays and Twins hit into 3 double plays.  We will not be a winning team until we solve that problem.

The Twins are league average at grounding into double plays. Problem solved.

BTW - the antidote to GIDP is usually swinging hard, which creates strikeouts. The people here who want fewer strikeouts are asking for more double plays.

[Woof Bronzer]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, good teams generally go .500 on a road trip or 3-3. They go 4-2 at home. That's a 94 win pace - win half your game on the road and 2/3 at home. Your expectations are completely unrealistic - you're expecting a 135+ win pace.

Serious question:  did you watch the games?  

Are you saying it's completely realistic for a good team to win 5 of 6 games every now and then?  

Nobody is saying they should win 5 of every 6 games.  The Twins should have won 5 of these 6, though.  

[Fred]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Take out the 5 highest scoring games for any team and their average runs per game will fall. If I take out their 5 lowest scoring games their average runs will go up too. Removing data from the sample makes it less representative, not more.

The problem has more to do with when they score than how much they score. Situationally they are horrible. Much like Pagan and J Lopez on the mound.

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 

The Twins don't really miss Arraez at all.

It's hard to take you seriously when you make claims like this.

One can be in favor of the Lopez trade while still understanding how much the Twins offense could use Arraez.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The Twins should have won 5 of these 6, though.  

The Dodgers are leading their division. They aren't going to roll over at home.

The Twins went up against Ohtani on Sunday - were you really expecting them to win that game? A Sunday win would have been an upset.

[Woof Bronzer]

Just now, DJL44 said:

The Dodgers are leading their division. They aren't going to roll over at home.

The Twins went up against Ohtani on Sunday - were you really expecting them to win that game? A Sunday win would have been an upset.

I'll ask again:  did you watch the actual games, and see how they actually played out?

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are league average at grounding into double plays. Problem solved.

BTW - the antidote to GIDP is usually swinging hard, which creates strikeouts. The people here who want fewer strikeouts are asking for more double plays.

The actual antidote to GIDPs is to hit the ball in the air. 

Two strikeouts still leave you scoreless. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

One can be in favor of the Lopez trade while still understanding how much the Twins offense could use Arraez.

A Twins offense with Arraez starting means Gallo is not signed or Kirilloff is on the bench. Which one do you want to subtract?

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

A Twins offense with Arraez starting means Gallo is not signed or Kirilloff is on the bench. Which one do you want to subtract?

I don't accept either of those statements as facts. 

I believe a MLB manager can find room for all three on most days.

[DJL44]

Just now, Woof Bronzer said:

I'll ask again:  did you watch the actual games, and see how they actually played out?

Mostly no, I went to bed. I read the box scores and watched the game highlights in the morning. I listened to a couple games on the radio. I'm not sure how watching the games in real-time is going to give me more information than the recap, box scores and the highlights. What exactly did I miss? Be specific. Tell me something you saw that wasn't in the box score and highlights.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The actual antidote to GIDPs is to hit the ball in the air. 

Two strikeouts still leave you scoreless. 

Trying to hit the ball in the air leads to more strikeouts. There is a reason GIDP and Ks are negatively correlated.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The total runs is a farce.  They score big 10 - 11 runs in 5 games throws the stats out of whack.  Take those 5 games out of our 47 and we drop to3.9 runs per game from 4.7.  Scoring big is fun, but scoring consistently is essential and scoring in the clutch is even better. 

What happens to their numbers if you take out their 5 lowest scoring games? What does "scoring consistently" look like in MLB? Honest questions. The numbers sound terrible when looking at them scoring 3 or fewer runs, and "scoring consistently" sounds great, but what are other teams doing? When you look at the best offenses for a year what percentage of games do they score 3 or fewer runs? What percentage do they score between 4 and 6 (or however you define "scoring consistently")? What percentage do they score 7 or more? I have no idea, and have never looked it up. How far off the MLB norm is this offense for consistency?

[Woof Bronzer]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Mostly no, I went to bed. I read the box scores and watched the game highlights in the morning. I listened to a couple games on the radio. I'm not sure how watching the games in real-time is going to give me more information than the recap, box scores and the highlights. What exactly did I miss? Be specific. Tell me something you saw that wasn't in the box score and highlights.

Ok, it makes a lot more sense now.  Apparently you didn't see in the box score that the Twins held leads in every game, and blew 3 of them.  Did you notice how often the Twins left runners on base?  Did you notice how often the Twins struck out? Did you notice they were 0 for 10 with the bases loaded? 

[Woof Bronzer]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Trying to hit the ball in the air leads to more strikeouts. 

Uh, what?  Putting the ball in play is the opposite of a strikeout.  

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What happens to their numbers if you take out their 5 lowest scoring games? What does "scoring consistently" look like in MLB? Honest questions. The numbers sound terrible when looking at them scoring 3 or fewer runs, and "scoring consistently" sounds great, but what are other teams doing? When you look at the best offenses for a year what percentage of games do they score 3 or fewer runs? What percentage do they score between 4 and 6 (or however you define "scoring consistently")? What percentage do they score 7 or more? I have no idea, and have never looked it up. How far off the MLB norm is this offense for consistency?

Not exactly an answer, but here's part of it...I found some of what I was looking for the other day: what's the magic number in MLB?

It's 5. Score 5, and you win more than lose. Score 4, and you lose more than win. Obviously, scoring less than 4 gives you an even worse record. 

This data is 2023,  but it holds up

https://stathead.com/baseball/inning_summary.cgi?request=1

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What happens to their numbers if you take out their 5 lowest scoring games? What does "scoring consistently" look like in MLB? Honest questions. The numbers sound terrible when looking at them scoring 3 or fewer runs, and "scoring consistently" sounds great, but what are other teams doing? When you look at the best offenses for a year what percentage of games do they score 3 or fewer runs? What percentage do they score between 4 and 6 (or however you define "scoring consistently")? What percentage do they score 7 or more? I have no idea, and have never looked it up. How far off the MLB norm is this offense for consistency?

Games with 3 runs or less: Here's some comparisons, 2023 to date:

TX 13

LAD 15

ClE 28

MN 21

CWS 26

I'm too lazy to go team by team at BBRef and I can't find the data already assembled. 

But at least on first glance, good offenses don't get shut down as often. Which makes intuitive sense to me.

 

 

 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Ok, it makes a lot more sense now.  Apparently you didn't see in the box score that the Twins held leads in every game, and blew 3 of them.  Did you notice how often the Twins left runners on base?  Did you notice how often the Twins struck out? Did you notice they were 0 for 10 with the bases loaded? 

Apparently you didn't notice that the other team is allowed to try to win even when the Twins have a lead (especially when it is a small lead). Did you notice that the other pitchers are trying to strike out the Twins batters?

0 for 10 with the bases loaded is frustrating but considering MLB batting average is around .230 expectations should be 2 for 10 with the bases loaded. That doesn't move them from 2-4 to 5-1.

You can re-read that if you want. Your favorite team should fail to get a hit with the bases loaded more than 75% of the time.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Not exactly an answer, but here's part of it...I found some of what I was looking for the other day: what's the magic number in MLB?

It's 5. Score 5, and you win more than lose. Score 4, and you lose more than win. Obviously, scoring less than 4 gives you an even worse record. 

This data is 2023,  but it holds up

https://stathead.com/baseball/inning_summary.cgi?request=1

So with my quick math, there have been 1406 team games played. 603 of those have scored 3 runs or fewer. That's roughly 43% of team games where teams score 3 or fewer runs. The Twins (based on your next post) are at 21 of 47 games, or 44.6%. So Twins are worse than average, but not significantly so. But I don't want them to just be average so they definitely need to pick that up.

I'd think the teams that have top notch pitching staffs see a boost in their winning% at 4 runs per game compared to normal. The Twins starting rotation is definitely giving them a chance to see a boost there. But the bullpen has not been helping lately. Overall, I'm surprised they're as close as they are to average in terms of scoring 3 runs or fewer, and the problems for this team are what many of us thought they'd be. They're short a big, middle of the order bat, and the bullpen has stretches where it's simply not good enough. 

I expect there to be some dip in the starting rotation performance, but nothing drastic. Their best internal option for added offense is Lewis, and he should be here soon (although, this article tempering expectations has me worried they're going to be dumb about things), but the bullpen is really going to need some guys to step up. I believe in Duran and Lopez. But the rest make me nervous right now. It's not easy to find external improvements in May. They need Stewart to be for real, Thielbar to come back in top form, and Jax to make a tweak or 2 and be a real asset again.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Uh, what?  Putting the ball in play is the opposite of a strikeout.  

Do you think players are headed to the plate thinking "I bet a strikeout will help here"? They're trying to hit the ball hard in the air somewhere. That approach leads to strikeouts. A "contact" swing where they meet the pitch is a lot more likely to cause a double play.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Apparently you didn't notice that the other team is allowed to try to win even when the Twins have a lead (especially when it is a small lead). Did you notice that the other pitchers are trying to strike out the Twins batters?

0 for 10 with the bases loaded is frustrating but considering MLB batting average is around .230 expectations should be 2 for 10 with the bases loaded. That doesn't move them from 2-4 to 5-1.

You can re-read that if you want. Your favorite team should fail to get a hit with the bases loaded more than 75% of the time.

You don't even need a hit to score a run with the bases loaded and less than 2 outs.  Look, the Twins are not going to revoke your fandom for admitting what anyone who watched those games knows:  the Twins lost several winnable games last week.  It's hard to take you seriously when you pretend otherwise, and I am not sure what it accomplishes, other than attempting to let the team off the hook for poor performances.  

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

And that's just their own pitching lines.  Doesn't include the inherited runner charged to the starter.  Very poor showing after a fine start that had us in a pitchers' duel to that point.

It seems the They we are referring to is principally Jorge Lopez. First 10 plus innings of the season dominant/perfection! Since then, still looks to have good stuff but not getting outs in tough situations. Discouraging.

Need bullpen depth with trying a AAA reliever or two. New guys. Funderburk - Balazovic - somebody. Sands is never used so why have him take up a roster spot?……..really hopeful Maeda may help in Pen soon - in June!

Maybe Headrick - why not, he’s effective?………..can’t worry about keeping him stretched out in case of injury to someone else. Need to utilize him!

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Apparently you didn't notice that the other team is allowed to try to win even when the Twins have a lead (especially when it is a small lead). Did you notice that the other pitchers are trying to strike out the Twins batters?

0 for 10 with the bases loaded is frustrating but considering MLB batting average is around .230 expectations should be 2 for 10 with the bases loaded. That doesn't move them from 2-4 to 5-1.

You can re-read that if you want. Your favorite team should fail to get a hit with the bases loaded more than 75% of the time.

Actually, across MLB in 2023 here's the numbers with bases loaded:

.259/.307/.430

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2023

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Woof Bronzer said:

You don't even need a hit to score a run with the bases loaded and less than 2 outs.  Look, the Twins are not going to revoke your fandom for admitting what anyone who watched those games knows:  the Twins lost several winnable games last week.  It's hard to take you seriously when you pretend otherwise, and I am not sure what it accomplishes, other than attempting to let the team off the hook for poor performances.  

Every team loses winnable games. It happens every day. It's disappointing but there was nothing wildly unexpected or unusual about the results.

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So with my quick math, there have been 1406 team games played. 603 of those have scored 3 runs or fewer. That's roughly 43% of team games where teams score 3 or fewer runs. The Twins (based on your next post) are at 21 of 47 games, or 44.6%. So Twins are worse than average, but not significantly so. But I don't want them to just be average so they definitely need to pick that up.

I'd think the teams that have top notch pitching staffs see a boost in their winning% at 4 runs per game compared to normal. The Twins starting rotation is definitely giving them a chance to see a boost there. But the bullpen has not been helping lately. Overall, I'm surprised they're as close as they are to average in terms of scoring 3 runs or fewer, and the problems for this team are what many of us thought they'd be. They're short a big, middle of the order bat, and the bullpen has stretches where it's simply not good enough. 

I expect there to be some dip in the starting rotation performance, but nothing drastic. Their best internal option for added offense is Lewis, and he should be here soon (although, this article tempering expectations has me worried they're going to be dumb about things), but the bullpen is really going to need some guys to step up. I believe in Duran and Lopez. But the rest make me nervous right now. It's not easy to find external improvements in May. They need Stewart to be for real, Thielbar to come back in top form, and Jax to make a tweak or 2 and be a real asset again.

Concur.

I'd say they are missing 2 middle of the order bats, not 1, but that's a nitpic.

We better hope the starting pitching holds up. 

[Woof Bronzer]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 It's disappointing but there was nothing wildly unexpected or unusual about the results.

We've gotten to the point in the Falvine era that 10 hitless as bats with bases loaded and 3 bullpen meltdowns in 6 games is neither unexpected or unusual.  We agree on that :)

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Concur.

I'd say they are missing 2 middle of the order bats, not 1, but that's a nitpic.

We better hope the starting pitching holds up. 

It was good to see Correa produce an RBI double. He's one of the missing middle of the order bats. I'm hopeful Royce Lewis is able to be at least a league average offensive contributor.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

It seems the They we are referring to is principally Jorge Lopez. First 10 plus innings of the season dominant/perfection! Since then, still looks to have good stuff but not getting outs in tough situations. Discouraging.

Need bullpen depth with trying a AAA reliever or two. New guys. Funderburk - Balazovic - somebody. Sands is never used so why have him take up a roster spot?……..really hopeful Maeda may help in Pen soon - in June!

Maybe Headrick - why not, he’s effective?………..can’t worry about keeping him stretched out in case of injury to someone else. Need to utilize him!

I think it's pretty extreme to suggest not worrying about keeping your next starting pitcher stretched out while also suggesting they move Maeda to the pen. Do you believe the current starting 5 will make it through the rest of the year injury free? I get the bullpen is in the midst of falling on it's face, but to fix that by blowing up all rotation depth seems like you're not really solving the problem of maximizing season wins. They've got 115 games left. Let's pace ourselves a little when it comes to rotation depth. They're going to need it.