Do the Twins have the staying power to win a divisional title in 2023?

[killebrewlover]

So there are reasons to believe that the Twins may have turned a corner, if you compare it with last years progressive decline over the 2022 season.  This year, they started the season by beating the heck out of divisional foe KC (6 wins, 1 loss).  And for the first time in many years, they took the season series with the Yankees.  The starting rotation has been better and despite Maeda's injury (and Pagan's inconsistency), the pitching (in general) is doing their job.  Offense has been respectable, but inconsistent, especially at key moments where run support was essential.  Defense is a meh, but there's hope that it can improve with time.  So, on the surface, we should be happy the Twins are in 1st place in the Central and 2.5 games in front of the nearest team. Right?  But then again....

You look at the last six games on the road.  Losing 2 of 3 to divisional rival Chicago.  Then another 2 of 3 to Cleveland. It's these games early in the season that can make the difference late in August and September when the race really ramps up. I really want to believe in this team. But my gut tells me we still have a long way to go.  (Then again, I've had some indigestion lately watching the close games go the other way!). I'm worried that once the Tigers and/or Guardians get their acts together, we'll be relegated to a repeat of the slow inexorable decline of 2022.  Someone convince me otherwise.  Please!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, killebrewlover said:

So there are reasons to believe that the Twins may have turned a corner, if you compare it with last years progressive decline over the 2022 season.  This year, they started the season by beating the heck out of divisional foe KC (6 wins, 1 loss).  And for the first time in many years, they took the season series with the Yankees.  The starting rotation has been better and despite Maeda's injury (and Pagan's inconsistency), the pitching (in general) is doing their job.  Offense has been respectable, but inconsistent, especially at key moments where run support was essential.  Defense is a meh, but there's hope that it can improve with time.  So, on the surface, we should be happy the Twins are in 1st place in the Central and 2.5 games in front of the nearest team. Right?  But then again....

You look at the last six games on the road.  Losing 2 of 3 to divisional rival Chicago.  Then another 2 of 3 to Cleveland. It's these games early in the season that can make the difference late in August and September when the race really ramps up. I really want to believe in this team. But my gut tells me we still have a long way to go.  (Then again, I've had some indigestion lately watching the close games go the other way!). I'm worried that once the Tigers and/or Guardians get their acts together, we'll be relegated to a repeat of the slow inexorable decline of 2022.  Someone convince me otherwise.  Please!

It’s 6 games. Bad teams win 40% of their games against better teams.

Correa should improve as the season progresses 

Kiriloff just came back, Miranda and Larnach aren’t locks, but there’s hope they can show this year what they’ve shown in the past.

Maybe Royce comes back and shows the promise that he held last season. Farmer should come back and provide a very nice floor above the current reserve levels.

Solano and Castro’s playing time should reduce as the above players mentioned get healthier/find their stroke.

Kepler is looking more like (or better than) what I expected. Gallo has been very good, these two combined make my offseason rants look very foolish so far.

Buxton has hit very well! Jeffers should be getting some more time behind the dish, and Polanco is looking like he’s getting back to normal too.

the floor should raise for the hitters as we go through May. There should be more hitters to carry the load soon.

[chpettit19]

I still think the key to the season is the young guys. Correa isn't going to hit .200 for the year. He'll get it going. That'll raise the overall team performance up pretty decently being that he hits in the heart of the order. But, to really be any kind of threat, the season is in the hands of Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Lewis, with secondary support from Julien and Wallner types (and Lee?). At least a couple of these guys need to take prominent roles that come with above average production. My bet is Kirilloff and Lewis both achieve this. If they do I like their chances to not just win the division, but also a playoff game! (Don't want to get my expectations too high so I'll just stick to break "the streak" at this point)

[Craig Arko]

Hard to say; let me brew a fresh pot of tea and examine the residuals.

Before doing so, my best guess is that they can hold on to the division, but will have a tough time with the likes of the Rays come playoff time.

[MGX]

34 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Gallo has been very good,

Has he?

The 3 HR's in two days in KC & Miami were nice. If we look at his last 28 days he's slashing - .154/.323/.462. I'm hoping for a little more from a 1B/corner OF. Over that span he has 8 hits, at least 7 of them were for extra bases.   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 minutes ago, MGX said:

Has he?

The 3 HR's in two days in KC & Miami were nice. If we look at his last 28 days he's slashing - .154/.323/.462. I'm hoping for a little more from a 1B/corner OF. Over that span he has 8 hits, at least 7 of them were for extra bases.   

We are talking about small sample sizes, but season to date he’s hitting 141 wRC+. That’s 41% better than league average.

[MGX]

22 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

We are talking about small sample sizes, but season to date he’s hitting 141 wRC+. That’s 41% better than league average.

True. He did get off to a great start, but the last month is a bit concerning.

[gunnarthor]

My feeling at the beginning of the season was that the team hadn't done enough to fix last year's problem - pitching. And, like last year, the pitching has started hot. If the Twins pitching staff really is a 133 ERA+, we have nothing to worry about. But I suspect the pitching staff will regress a lot. 

But, you want reasons for optimism? The starters are throwing more pitches this year and eating more innings. We have Buxton and Correa. Brooks Lee isn't too far away. The offensive pieces we have are too good to be this bad. The offense will get a lot better by the end of the season and it's certainly not going to stay at a 91 OPS+. And, of course, they took the season series from the Yanks. We're in first place. So enjoy the run. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yes.

[TwinsDr2021]

My answer is maybe, Mahle is already out for 60 days, they are into the starting depth already so they need pitchers to stay healthy, the bullpen is still a bit in question. If the offense is due to pick it up right? So if the offense gets better and the starters stay healthy, yes they are, if not could be a lot like 21 and 22.

[Winston Smith]

Who would you be willing to trade for this a year and next of Paul Goldschmidt?

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Winston Smith said:

Who would you be willing to trade for this a year and next of Paul Goldschmidt?

I would trade a fair offer of prospects for a bat like his. :)

[Dave Borton]

5 hours ago, killebrewlover said:

...Offense has been respectable, but inconsistent, especially at key moments where run support was essential. 

Far from respectable in my assessment:

Team is hitting:

BA Avg: .220, dead last of 30 MLB teams
OBP: .300, 28th place
OPS: .689, 21st, one place above Oakland.

A Francona's team should never be counted out. I would like to see Hinch continue to light a fire under the his Tigers. The more competitive those two teams are, the better the Twins will play. 

Chicago is hopeless so maybe it wasn't all LaRussa. KC is young and needs time.

[KirbyDome89]

We're actually worried about hanging around in the AL Central? Really? KC is challenging Oakland for the title of worst team in baseball. Is Detroit a real threat over 162 games? Chicago tanked their season in April. It's MN and Cleveland, and for as much as we bitch (rightfully so) about the Twins offensive struggles, Cleveland is probably worse. This is a really bad division, and barring a collapse a la MN last year, or Chicago last month, nobody is likely running away with it. A decent 6 weeks and some .500ish ball might be all it takes to claim the division crown. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think they can win a division title.  As others have stated, the division does not appear to be very strong.  However, we have more pitching than I can remember us ever having (and I go back to Dave Goltz), which even with a little regression will carry us a long ways.  The hitting situation isn't very good right now and yet we lead the division.  A little regression (upward) to the mean for the offense will help us a lot and perhaps instead of fading at the end of the season, for a change we get a little better and position ourselves to do better in the playoffs.  I know. . . wishful thinking, but that's what makes it fun!

[killebrewlover]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

We're actually worried about hanging around in the AL Central? Really? KC is challenging Oakland for the title of worst team in baseball. Is Detroit a real threat over 162 games? Chicago tanked their season in April. It's MN and Cleveland, and for as much as we bitch (rightfully so) about the Twins offensive struggles, Cleveland is probably worse. This is a really bad division, and barring a collapse a la MN last year, or Chicago last month, nobody is likely running away with it. A decent 6 weeks and some .500ish ball might be all it takes to claim the division crown. 

 

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

We're actually worried about hanging around in the AL Central? Really? KC is challenging Oakland for the title of worst team in baseball. Is Detroit a real threat over 162 games? Chicago tanked their season in April. It's MN and Cleveland, and for as much as we bitch (rightfully so) about the Twins offensive struggles, Cleveland is probably worse. This is a really bad division, and barring a collapse a la MN last year, or Chicago last month, nobody is likely running away with it. A decent 6 weeks and some .500ish ball might be all it takes to claim the division crown. 

I hope you're right.  Time will tell...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, davidborton said:

Far from respectable in my assessment:

Team is hitting:

BA Avg: .220, dead last of 30 MLB teams
OBP: .300, 28th place
OPS: .689, 21st, one place above Oakland.

A Francona's team should never be counted out. I would like to see Hinch continue to light a fire under the his Tigers. The more competitive those two teams are, the better the Twins will play. 

Chicago is hopeless so maybe it wasn't all LaRussa. KC is young and needs time.

The season is early, but… By BABIP they are 29th at .268 vs league average should be around .300. That could point to some bad luck/regression to the mean. 
 

wRC+ and wOBA they are in the 90 and .300 range suggesting closer to middle third in terms of hitting rank once the samples normalize, but average or below average.

[wsnydes]

I'm going to counter OPs question with one of my own; does any other team in the division have enough to not only overtake them but then also hang on themselves?  Every team in the division is rather flawed.  It's a war of attrition and the Twins currently hold the advantage. 

 

Baseball is often a streaky sport.  Baseball is a long season.  There's going to be plenty of ups and downs.

[stringer bell]

I don't see the pitching staff as incredibly deep now that Mahle and Maeda are out for indefinite, but longish periods of time. There aren't any reliable bullpen pieces in Triple A waiting for a callup. So, on the pitching side, I would imagine there will be regression, but the staff currently is probably second-best in all of baseball by almost every metric.

On the position player side, I'm more optimistic, mostly because, by most measures, the offense has been among the worst in MLB. Regression to the mean should bring improved performance. Beyond that, the Twins have only had Polanco in the lineup for two weeks and Kirilloff for two days. By the end of the season, they will probably be the third and fourth-best hitters on the team. Royce Lewis could be ready in three weeks and I think that if they can find a place for him to play, Eduoard Julien can also add offense. Three more youngish players--Wallner, Larnach and Miranda--could find themselves and become big contributors. That seems to be a lot of ifs and maybes, but there are lots of players who could provide help. The depth that is missing in the pitching staff is there in abundance for the position players. 

Outside of the rotation injuries, where the Twins were very prepared for absences, the team's health is pretty good for a change. As mentioned, Royce Lewis could join the team by month's end, Kyle Farmer should be on the field this week and the other players on the Injured List likely wouldn't be on the active roster if they were healthy.

To summarize, I like the Twins chances to win the Central. Playoff baseball is a bit of a lottery, but the Twins currently have as good a front three as anyone in baseball. I'd give them a good chance to win some games and maybe advance.