Woods-Richardson

[Squirrel]

16 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

so  you want to get me started  on the primary part of the trade....  no expectation for immediate return but SOME return would be nice.  can't have an SWR discussion without the trade being part of it. sorry

 

I'm not saying the trade is off limits in the discussion, but it's not really how or why the thread has started but it's where we are in a thread titled SWR. I'm saying I think your expectations are a bit off, and you seem angry about it. From what you've said, you are wanting a return NOW and you seem angry that that return isn't NOW. I think SWR will be good. He is well regarded and a top prospect. You seem to want him to be Berrios now, and I think that is unrealistic. It doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade. I still make that same trade, any time. And the other piece of that trade is still a question mark, but I still hope for a good return there as well. SWR will be up and down this year and I think he will be ready for a bigger role next season. He is still young. For a pitcher, 22 is still  young and I don't think he's being promoted slowly.

[dxpavelka]

23 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I'm not saying the trade is off limits in the discussion, but it's not really how or why the thread has started but it's where we are in a thread titled SWR. I'm saying I think your expectations are a bit off, and you seem angry about it. From what you've said, you are wanting a return NOW and you seem angry that that return isn't NOW. I think SWR will be good. He is well regarded and a top prospect. You seem to want him to be Berrios now, and I think that is unrealistic. It doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade. I still make that same trade, any time. And the other piece of that trade is still a question mark, but I still hope for a good return there as well. SWR will be up and down this year and I think he will be ready for a bigger role next season. He is still young. For a pitcher, 22 is still  young and I don't think he's being promoted slowly.

Not angry at all.  Just leery of some fans who blindly buy in to every move the front office makes.  Yes, I know Berrios didn't seem to do much in Toronto last year but he would have been one of our top two starters.  Could have made a difference for us last year. He'd still be part of our rotation this year and deservedly so.  AND we might not have had to make the Mahle trade last year and we still might have a guy who IS producing at the big league level.   And, yes, I agree that 22 is young for a pitcher but when that pitcher was a a big piece in a major trade at 19, 22 is not that young anymore. Not only do I think the fan base too easily buy into some moves it almost feels like some are based on what the FO reads on some of these websites.  I constantly harp on moving on from Rosario.  I'm 60 years old and old enough to remember when a front office in these parts would have been LAMBASTED for moving on from a guy who got MVP votes in his last two years here to save $8 Million.  And, yes I know the move was made to make room for Kirilloff & Larnach.  That has not panned out at all.  Bottom line, I don't think that having an expectation to get some production within two years when you move the best starting pitcher you have developed in a generation is unreasonable.

[jkcarew]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Cuz we're pushing two years out on the Berrios trade and still have ZERO return on it????

Then again, we’re not on the hook for another $120M and 6 years to a guy that’s consistently posted negative WAR over the last two seasons.

So far, the FO, by trading and not signing Berrios…are ahead on this transaction by a county mile. But yes, it would be nice to see return on the field soon. SWB seems on track. Martin is behind.

[Fatbat]

I would much rather see young guys come up and struggle vs. watching pagan throw gopher balls. It seems like we are gonna use 3-4 guys with options to be the long RP and shuttle them across the river.  It might work better if you just reassign pagan to be the shuttle driver. Lol

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Not angry at all.  Just leery of some fans who blindly buy in to every move the front office makes.  Yes, I know Berrios didn't seem to do much in Toronto last year but he would have been one of our top two starters.  Could have made a difference for us last year. He'd still be part of our rotation this year and deservedly so.  AND we might not have had to make the Mahle trade last year and we still might have a guy who IS producing at the big league level.   And, yes, I agree that 22 is young for a pitcher but when that pitcher was a a big piece in a major trade at 19, 22 is not that young anymore. Not only do I think the fan base too easily buy into some moves it almost feels like some are based on what the FO reads on some of these websites.  I constantly harp on moving on from Rosario.  I'm 60 years old and old enough to remember when a front office in these parts would have been LAMBASTED for moving on from a guy who got MVP votes in his last two years here to save $8 Million.  And, yes I know the move was made to make room for Kirilloff & Larnach.  That has not panned out at all.  Bottom line, I don't think that having an expectation to get some production within two years when you move the best starting pitcher you have developed in a generation is unreasonable.

Not one person blindly buys into every move. Not one. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think in future years, when we look back on Simeon Woods Richardson’s career, the most probable outcome will be that he was an AAAA type pitcher in the mold of Gonsalves or Kohl Stewart. Decent minor league numbers but not usually good enough for MLB. However, I think he will be given a longer run than those two, and might have a nice short stretch in him at some point like Dobnak did. 

I’ve also noticed some other odd stuff, like not appearing in games for long stretches that can’t be explained by injury or Covid. He did not pitch in the Olympics in 2021 (Joe Ryan pitched a lot). He was demoted to St. Paul really quick this spring and he did not make his first start for the Saints until game 8. Maybe he needs a mentor or teammate he can connect with, or some other way to harness that excess energy, if that’s actually a thing and I’m not reading too much into it. 

to add: just trying to present a realistic counterpoint to all the good stuff you read about him , accept or reject as it suits you

Edited April 24, 2023 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[KirbyDome89]

24 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think in future years, when we look back on Simeon Woods Richardson’s career, the most probable outcome will be that he was an AAAA type pitcher in the mold of Gonsalves or Kohl Stewart. Decent minor league numbers but not usually good enough for MLB. However, I think he will be given a longer run than those two, and might have a nice short stretch in him at some point like Dobnak did. 

I’ve also noticed some other odd stuff, like not appearing in games for long stretches that can’t be explained by injury or Covid. He did not pitch in the Olympics in 2021 (Joe Ryan pitched a lot). He was demoted to St. Paul really quick this spring and he did not make his first start for the Saints until game 8. Maybe he needs a mentor or teammate he can connect with, or some other way to harness that excess energy, if that’s actually a thing and I’m not reading too much into it. 

to add: just trying to present a realistic counterpoint to all the good stuff you read about him , accept or reject as it suits you

Idk if I'm ready to compare him to Kohl Stewart, but SWR was shut down in 2021, not because he was injured, but because he was pitching so miserably and (in a very SSS) he's not off to a good start this year after bouncing back in 2022. I see people constantly referring to him as a "top prospect," but that term is relative. The Twins don't have a particularly strong farm system, and the high end talent they do possess all seems to be position players, so yeah, SWR might be one of their "best SP prospect," but what does that really mean? I definitely think he'll have a longer leash/run as well, and he'll have every opportunity to grab a rotation spot with 3/5 of the current staff heading into FA, so I guess we'll find out soon. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Then again, we’re not on the hook for another $120M and 6 years to a guy that’s consistently posted negative WAR over the last two seasons.

So far, the FO, by trading and not signing Berrios…are ahead on this transaction by a county mile. But yes, it would be nice to see return on the field soon. SWB seems on track. Martin is behind.

What Berrios has or hasn't done in Toronto has no bearing on what he would or wouldn't have done here.

[Squirrel]

Stick to the topic and not other posters

[Fatbat]

On 4/23/2023 at 9:29 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think in future years, when we look back on Simeon Woods Richardson’s career, the most probable outcome will be that he was an AAAA type pitcher in the mold of Gonsalves or Kohl Stewart. Decent minor league numbers but not usually good enough for MLB. However, I think he will be given a longer run than those two, and might have a nice short stretch in him at some point like Dobnak did. 

I’ve also noticed some other odd stuff, like not appearing in games for long stretches that can’t be explained by injury or Covid. He did not pitch in the Olympics in 2021 (Joe Ryan pitched a lot). He was demoted to St. Paul really quick this spring and he did not make his first start for the Saints until game 8. Maybe he needs a mentor or teammate he can connect with, or some other way to harness that excess energy, if that’s actually a thing and I’m not reading too much into it. 

to add: just trying to present a realistic counterpoint to all the good stuff you read about him , accept or reject as it suits you

I like your take on it.  Seems like the twins have a few guys in the minors that have had some strange developmental issues. Maybe some guys just don’t grow up and view baseball as a business and its their job to be the best. Many guys just can’t handle the work and stress it takes. 

[Major League Ready]

On 4/23/2023 at 2:58 PM, dxpavelka said:

He's been developing for half a decade.  We still have ZERO return on the deal.

 

The trade was basically a year and a half ago.  What do you expect when you trade for prospects?  We also would not have gotten anything from Berrios last year had we kept him.  He was literally replacement value and he has not been good this year either.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The trade was basically a year and a half ago.  What do you expect when you trade for prospects?  We also would not have gotten anything from Berrios last year had we kept him.  He was literally replacement value and he has not been good this year either.

He would have been our second best starter last year and would be in the rotation this year whether you like it or not.

 

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

He would have been our second best starter last year and would be in the rotation this year whether you like it or not.

 

Based on what?  He had an ERA over 5.  He sucked!  What I said was that he provided no value and for you to insist a player with an ERA over 5 was valuable is just totally devoid of objectivity.   

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Based on what?  He had an ERA over 5.  He sucked!  What I said was that he provided no value and for you to insist a player with an ERA over 5 was valuable is just totally devoid of objectivity.   

Funny how folks think ERA is no longer a valid stat unless they think it's gonna win them an argument.  Berrios was better last year than any Twins starter not named Joe Ryan.  End of story. 

[Squirrel]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Funny how folks think ERA is no longer a valid stat unless they think it's gonna win them an argument.  Berrios was better last year than any Twins starter not named Joe Ryan.  End of story. 

This thread not about Berrios. Keep it focussed on SWR and not the tangents.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

14 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

He would have been our second best starter last year and would be in the rotation this year whether you like it or not.

 

Right now Berrios is a bloated contract and not performing to his past stats.  We had money to extend 1 pitcher and currently I would rather have Lopez for the next 4 years as our #1 pitcher than Berrios.    

Sorry just saw Squirrels post.  In regards to SWR he is on track.  he is showing top stuff in the minor leagues.  I am slightly disappointed his velocity pulled back a bit.  I think he is lined up more to be a #2 or #3 similar to a Joe Ryan.  As to the other half of the trade I was pleasantly surprised by fall ball,  disappointed by the injury in spring ball.  I am hoping it is minor and heals by the end of may to early June.   

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Right now Berrios is a bloated contract and not performing to his past stats.  We had money to extend 1 pitcher and currently I would rather have Lopez for the next 4 years as our #1 pitcher than Berrios.    

Sorry just saw Squirrels post.  In regards to SWR he is on track.  he is showing top stuff in the minor leagues.  I am slightly disappointed his velocity pulled back a bit.  I think he is lined up more to be a #2 or #3 similar to a Joe Ryan.  As to the other half of the trade I was pleasantly surprised by fall ball,  disappointed by the injury in spring ball.  I am hoping it is minor and heals by the end of may to early June.   

I actually think SWR will be comparable to Berrios in quality. But ... he is just 22 ... 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 4/23/2023 at 11:07 AM, dxpavelka said:

Cuz we're pushing two years out on the Berrios trade and still have ZERO return on it????

You are right, the Twins haven’t gotten any return out of the Berrios trade as of yet.  A couple of points, though.  First, the trade was on July 30 of 2021, so it’s really only been 2 months in 2021, 6 months in 2022, and 1 month in 2023, so 1.5 years since the trade, not almost two.

Second, as a point of comparison, the Twins have also gotten basically zero return (0.3 WAR) out of their first overall pick from the 2017 draft, Royce Lewis.  Lewis happens to be more than a year older than SWR.

Does it matter?  What matters in my view is whether the players are developing in a way that means they will contribute to the Twins for the six years of their service time (and hopefully more).  I think SWR is on track to provide a lot of return for the Twins from age 23-29, just as Royce Lewis is on track to produce even more value for the Twins from age 24-30.  Austin Martin is already 24 and older than both.  It’s harder to see how much value he will provide from, say age 25-31 for the Twins, but there is certainly a plausible scenario where he does provide a decent amount of value over that timeframe.

It was disappointing to see Berrios get traded, but I think it will prove to have been well worth it over the long run.

[August J Gloop]

The subject of the discussion is SWR. But naturally since he was traded for Berrios comparisons are made. 

So let's look at these two in comparable ways. JB played 6 minor league years before becoming established in the bigs during the 2017 season. SWR has had 5. ERA is a pretty crap stat to use for big league pitchers. Doubly so for minor leaguers. WHIP isn't great either as minor leagues have lots of hits that aren't thanks to so many poor defenders down there. But it's what we got.

Player - WHIP - H/9 - HR/9 - BB/9 - K/9- K/BB
JOB -  1.075 - 7.2 - 0.5 - 2.5 - 9.6 - 3.83
SWR - 1.203 - 7.7 - 0.6 - 3.1 - 10.9  - 3.50

Remarkably similar development. SWR has a bit less control, but that also manifests as quite a bit more in the K zone. Homers are a slight bit more. Add those walks and you see where the ERA difference lives. (JOB 2.77 SWR 3.80)

I'm sensing a fair bit of dismay in the thread about SWR's inability to pitch the other day. While that was a bummer, let's consider that JOB's entire Age 22 performance at MLB level was basically like that. He had 58 IP and gave up 52 runs.  Progress is not linear, but we should still have hope that SWR will be a big league arm. There is literally no data that suggests otherwise yet. 

 

[Linus]

I don’t see that much upside in SWR. His stuff is meh as is his control. Hope I’m wrong but he looks like a back of the rotation starter at best. I’m glad the Twins don’t owe Berrios $120 million (although he has been unhittable his last three starts).