Strikeouts.

[stringer bell]

The new rules in baseball have made a faster game, more appreciative of defense and base running, but so far there remains a lack of contact, particularly for the Twins. The Twins are fanning at a rate of 26.06%. I am confident if that rate continues, they will shatter their all-time record for strikeouts in a season.

It was noted that the Twins lead the American League in Ks this season and when I checked just three short games ago they were seventh. Such is the variability early in a season. However, the raw number of strikeouts shouldn't be the be-all and end-all of the discussion. I used my limited internet skills and checked on K% for all MLB clubs, hoping to see the Twins closer to tenth than first. Here is what I found: With 153 strikeouts in 16 games (about 9.5 per game) the Twins rank fourth in strikeout percentage, trailing only the San Francisco Giants, the Royals and the Tigers. Truly not good.

Here are the strike out percentages for the Twins--worst to best: Buxton 40%, Taylor 37%, Wallner 36%, Gallo 35%, Larnach 34%, Farmer 31%, Correa 27%, Julien 26%, Garlick 25%. Jeffers 24%, Castro 21%, Vazquez 20%, Solano 18%, Kepler 17%, Miranda 15% and Gordon 7%. 

It should also be noted that the Twins have fanned 12 more batters than they have fanned, so they are doing better than their opponents. 

[CRF]

Buxton's been doing his best Sano impression since the season started. He's just brutal. The offense and scoring runs on a consistent basis, is going to be a struggle all season...or at least until Polanco, and maybe Kirilloff get back here...then we'll see if anything changes. We had that Yankee series right there on a platter for the taking, and did nothing the last two games. Let's hope it gets better up in Boston. 

[umterp23]

I'm a big believer that the DH role is more difficult for some then others, as you aren't really into the flow of the game for couple reasons: you sit the bench for a few innings/stand around which mentally you aren't fully engaged vs playing a position and you take some swings in the cage/in the tunnel to stay loose prior to your at bat.  This isn't easy for everyone and it does take a guy who can mature into the mindset to be a bat only guy.

Buxton was never a bat only guy.  His offense thrived on his defense and vice/versa.  When you basically "protect" him from himself by limiting his major value to the team by playing the field, you get these breakdowns and downward turns more frequently than not.  He sure did light up the K's by going 10 for 12 in the ugly category in NY this weekend.

Buxton while a tremendous talent, isn't the MVP/All-Star performer at DH we signed him for.  Last 2 games, 7 straight K's.  Call it a slump if you want, but when you limit his effectiveness to be a bat only guy, it creates a trickle down effect: Mentally not helping the team, K's boil up in the confidence and he sits the pine waiting to get another crack at it.  Jogging out to play OF, can help remove the K doubts for a few minutes as he has to focus on playing defense and helping the team.  

The trickle effect than kicks in with M. Taylor playing everyday with how many days off so far to help him reset.  He was brought in to spell Buxton, not replace him in the field.  There isn't a healthy balance in CF the way this has gone for a couple weeks.  

Gallo is what we thought he would be, so no surprises there.  Catchers are fairing quite well which is nice to see (Jeffers improving his batting mechanics, seems to put him in better position for contact vs K's.  Vasquez, never a violent swinger at the plate, so not surprises there.

 

[StormJH1]

We're only looking at like 3 weeks of regular season data, and the perspective is even more anecdotal looking at just the Twins. But it does "feel" to me like strikeouts are up, and you just see crazy 9.0+ K/9 stat lines from pitchers who have not traditionally been huge strikeout guys.  It's also very true that many hitters struggle in April due to a number of factors - timing, conditioning, and cold weather to name a few.  So perhaps it's just a case that pitchers are slightly ahead of hitters on the curve of adjusting to the rule changes.

 

But it would pretty unfortunate if one of the unintended consequences of the pitching clock and abolishing the infield shift is that we see even MORE strikeouts.  My understanding is that K's were down - not up - in the minor league experiments.  But it's plausible that hitters benefited from the constant stop/start, or being able to take more than 10-15 seconds to recover after being buzzed by a 98mph fastball inside.  

 

And while more strikeouts are helpful to quicker game times, they aren't helpful to the product.  Never seeing the ball go into play harms the TV product, but IMO, it's even worse for the in-person product.  There's very views in the ballpark that actually allow you to critique a pitching performance.  An 89mph fastball versus a 101mph fastball doesn't really look any different to the dude sitting in section 230 in left field, nor can you really tell balls versus strikes.  

 

To be clear, I do mostly like the new rule changes, but this will be a trend to watch.  As a Twins fan, I'm obviously enjoying watching starting pitching that can miss bats, and hope that continues.

[Nine of twelve]

To balance this out, the Twins pitchers lead the major leagues in strikeouts.

[wsnydes]

Fanning 26% of the time nets you 7th in the AL?  Middle of the pack.  Out of everything in this post, that's what stuck out to me.  That's crazy.  Welcome to modern baseball, I guess.

[chpettit19]

22 hours ago, StormJH1 said:

We're only looking at like 3 weeks of regular season data, and the perspective is even more anecdotal looking at just the Twins. But it does "feel" to me like strikeouts are up, and you just see crazy 9.0+ K/9 stat lines from pitchers who have not traditionally been huge strikeout guys.  It's also very true that many hitters struggle in April due to a number of factors - timing, conditioning, and cold weather to name a few.  So perhaps it's just a case that pitchers are slightly ahead of hitters on the curve of adjusting to the rule changes.

 

But it would pretty unfortunate if one of the unintended consequences of the pitching clock and abolishing the infield shift is that we see even MORE strikeouts.  My understanding is that K's were down - not up - in the minor league experiments.  But it's plausible that hitters benefited from the constant stop/start, or being able to take more than 10-15 seconds to recover after being buzzed by a 98mph fastball inside.  

 

And while more strikeouts are helpful to quicker game times, they aren't helpful to the product.  Never seeing the ball go into play harms the TV product, but IMO, it's even worse for the in-person product.  There's very views in the ballpark that actually allow you to critique a pitching performance.  An 89mph fastball versus a 101mph fastball doesn't really look any different to the dude sitting in section 230 in left field, nor can you really tell balls versus strikes.  

 

To be clear, I do mostly like the new rule changes, but this will be a trend to watch.  As a Twins fan, I'm obviously enjoying watching starting pitching that can miss bats, and hope that continues.

K/9 for the league is almost exactly the same as last year through the 16/17/18 game/team timeframe. Not sure that should make you feel any better about things, but the Ks haven't gone up. Basically 8.75 this year after having been 8.74 last year at this time. I'd actually expect K/9 to go down as the year goes on as pitchers wear down more since they can't spend 30 seconds walking around the mound getting as recovered as possible before throwing another max effort pitch. But it'll be interesting to watch how all these rules change the game as teams adapt and adjust.

[4twinsJA]

Last year pitchers were behind where they are now with limited spring training, may be a factor in increased K rates at least early in the year.

[UpstateNewYorker]

Stolen bases and SB% are up significantly.  The Twins are not built to take advantage of the larger bases:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/17/stolen-bases-rule-changes-increase

[KirbyDome89]

On 4/17/2023 at 8:27 AM, stringer bell said:

Here are the strike out percentages for the Twins--worst to best: Buxton 40%, Taylor 37%, Wallner 36%, Gallo 35%, Larnach 34%, Farmer 31%, Correa 27%, Julien 26%, Garlick 25%. Jeffers 24%, Castro 21%, Vazquez 20%, Solano 18%, Kepler 17%, Miranda 15% and Gordon 7%. 

The numbers for Buxton and Taylor are pretty extreme (SSS yada yada) but Gordon at 7% balances that out a bit. Gallo, Larnach, Vazquez, Kepler, and Solano are in a "normal," range. Correa likely moves down a tick. Miranda could see a bit of a jump; ditto for Jeffers. 

I'm not counting Wallner, Julien, or Castro because they're not (or shouldn't in Castro's case) getting regular ABs. I guess we'll see how Farmer's ABs are distributed, but it's kind of discouraging when you look at these guys individually and realize the K numbers aren't all that inflated by the SSS. 

[Doctor Wu]

During the last series, after another Twins loss, the roundup on ESPN stated:

Minnesota struck out 16 times, matching a season high. Twins batters lead the major leagues with 474 strikeouts,