Should the Twins sign Aaron Nola in free agency?

[CoasterProductions]

Should the Twins sign Aaron Nola to be they’re ace?
 

The Twins have 3 pitchers hitting the market after this season. One of them will most likely be replaced with Bailey Ober. As for the other 2 who knows. The Twins have several options on the market this off-season so here is my proposal for an Aaron Nola contract. 9 years $225,000,000. I know that it seems unrealistic for a small market team considering they just gave a buttload of cash to Correa, but just imagine if this deal actually happened. 

[Mike Sixel]

Yes.....a bit premature, but yes.

[ashbury]

$25M a year for 9 years? He turns 30 in a couple of months.  Will he be worth that kind of money late into his 30s?  I have to let some other team take him if that'll be the price.  That's a rich team's luxury.

[Twodogs]

It's seems that the Twins just don't do long term deals with pitchers.  For whatever reason good or bad.  But realistically, the Twins are going to put Ober in the rotation along with Paddock as he should be ready to go next year.  He might get 10 - 20 innings at the end of this season.  So you're looking to fill one spot which could be a competition between SWR, Balazovic if he bounces back, Varland, etc.... They could also try to resign one of those three that are due up for a new contract.  Probably Mahle, but again, he will probably be looking for a long term deal, 4 - 5 year range and the Twins just don't usually do those deals.  I'd love to see someone like Nola pitching for the Twins, but I just haven't seen them do business like that.

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes.....a bit premature, but yes.

Also premature, but no.  Absolutely not.  Unless they are really opening the pocketbooks with Joe in charge they don't need to be swimming in these waters.  The cost of missing is far too high.

From a practical matter, nothing to talk about for a few months anyway.  Who falls to the #5 pick?  Extend Pablo?  Extend Mahle?  Preilipp for real?

I'd love to have a true ace again but we did have that in Johan and struggled anyway.  The depth is more important for consistent winning, then when someone from the depth develops into an ace you can be dominant.  Work the international free agency while they still can, draft well and trade to fill holes.  Things are in too good of a place now to put that many eggs in one basket. 

The most likely path to an ace currently is one of the top two pitchers falling to #5.  They've cobbled together a pretty good rotation from spare parts, keep at it.

[ToriiRules!!]

Never sign free agent pitchers who are 30 plus to multi year deals!! The twins do not do this they don’t even sign their own pitchers to multi year deals once they hit 30!!!! So no don’t give him the money

[Major League Ready]

The answer will be much clearer after we get another year to evaluate SWR / Varland / Festa / Preilipp / Raya and Balazovic.  If they get Dolander or Skenes at #5 pick comes into play.   If Paddack is back and looking good that changes things as they have him through 2025.  

In my dream world, 3 or 4 of those prospects have a huge year and they get Skenes at 5!

[Nine of twelve]

We don't know the answer to this question yet. My hope is that the pitchers already in the organization do so well this year that we don't have a need to spend any money on a free agent pitcher.

[Linus]

Don’t worry about it because it will never happen. This FO has clearly decided they are not handing out big contracts for pitchers and I don’t necessarily disagree. 

[twinfan]

It is way too early to even talk about this. And there are lots of questions about our own pitchers due for an extension, possible trade deadline deals and whomever else comes on the market. I agree that 9 years is too long for someone 30 years old. Maybe 6 or a stretch to 7.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The front office doesn't spend money on pitchers period - relief or SP.  With the Correa and Buxton contract in place,  we will not be able to do a major pitching contract for the next 5 years.  I would love to extend one of the three pitchers we have coming off the books.  Maeda, Gray or Mahle or have one of the 3 take a qualifying offer.  However,  it is not a must.   With Paddack, Ryan, Lopez, Ober,  you have a nice core to work around and see if any of the prospects have the stuff to take the 5th spot for next year.  The real question is do you have 1-2 more pitchers that can provide depth.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The answer will be much clearer after we get another year to evaluate SWR / Varland / Festa / Preilipp / Raya and Balazovic.  If they get Dolander or Skenes at #5 pick comes into play.   If Paddack is back and looking good that changes things as they have him through 2025.  

In my dream world, 3 or 4 of those prospects have a huge year and they get Skenes at 5!

Skenes is going one or two. Dollander might be there, but they'll pass and take a hitter.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

Should the Twins sign Aaron Nola to be they’re ace?
 

The Twins have 3 pitchers hitting the market after this season. One of them will most likely be replaced with Bailey Ober. As for the other 2 who knows. The Twins have several options on the market this off-season so here is my proposal for an Aaron Nola contract. 9 years $225,000,000. I know that it seems unrealistic for a small market team considering they just gave a buttload of cash to Correa, but just imagine if this deal actually happened. 

I think that we can all agree that Polanco - Kepler - Gallo are not necessary for Twins success in 2024. That’s $32 million/year in salary available in 2024 within the existing 2023 budget. The 3 guys above can be replaced by rookies at $750K each. That’s $30 million available.

Nola, maybe. Would like C. Byrnes more. 9 years is a hell of a long time! Maybe 6 years at $28M/year?

Alternative that’s more sensible due to spread of risk:

If healthy, I would extend Gray for 2 years (try) with his existing salary of (??) $12M + $8M = $20M/year.

Could take Gray’s $20M & most of what’s leftover in budget and spend $28M/year for an ACE instead. Hard to argue with…….just high risk looking at the stable of arms we currently have.

With more of what we’ve seen, I’d extend López ASAP for 3 more years past his 2024 year of club control for $22M/year. Currently around $5M + $17M

This leaves $5M from this year’s budget left to spend.

Taylor at $4M & Solano at $2M are both probably gone so there’s another $6M to spend relative to this year’s budget.

Lopez - Gray - Ryan - Paddack - Ober (Varland/SWR/Prielipp & crew) locked up through ‘25 & beyond would be very positive outlook!!

Based on assumptions here we have $11M left to spend using this year’s Salary #…..used on relief pitching IMO. We have plenty of young talent to take 4-5 spots on the everyday player roster.

(Lewis/Lee/Walner/Julien/Rodriguez/Martin & others potentially have a shot).

They have Farmer under contract & he’ll stick in ‘24 for around $5M.
 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Skenes is going one or two. Dollander might be there, but they'll pass and take a hitter.

That's why I said in my dream world!  You are probably right.  I don't really care as long as they get a great player with that pick.  There are several guys that look like they could be difference makers.  Clark or Langford could look really good alongside Buxton and Rodriguez in a couple years.  Hopefully, we get one.  We finally got lucky with Lee falling to us last year and this stroke of luck in the lottery.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Long season to declare Skenes gone although right now very likely he is.   Throwing 100+ with control,  unless an injury pops up or loses his control similar to what seems to be happening to Dollander, and a few other of the higher rated pitchers.   Skenes definitely seems like the head and shoulders pick right now,  but a month ago it was Dollander.   The drafts are a crapshoot and there are 3 very good hitters.  To me top 5, or top 4 is a very good place to be.  Either the #2 or #3 hitter or the #2 pitcher most likely.     

Langford 1.400 OPS

Crews   1.525  OPS

Skenes -  what more needs to be said

Dollander -  still looks like one of the best pitching prospects in last decade

http://www.usabaseball.com/golden-spikes-award/news/topic/golden-spikes/gsa-spotlight-wake-forest-s-rhett-lowder

Throw in Lowder, or a wildcard like Clark  who is the best prep player.  I think we are going to be very happy with the outcome.  

[Rosterman]

The tlough part is getting major league experience, as well as staying competitive, if you wish to get a good look at Varland, SWR, Balazovic, even Ober this season. Not to mention Julien. Injuries can help get these looksees.

And then you also have to evaluate if you can afford to flip well performing free agents (Mahle, Madea, Gray, Gallo - not to mention Polanco, mKepler and maybe Pagan) for decent prospects and to make spots to try new talent...and still stay competitive.

Fun times in Twins Front Office-land!