Rik19753 Verified Member Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 First of all, let me be clear that I'm not trying to justify the FO's decision to bring back Pagan for 2023. I was one of the people that was upset that he wasn't traded, and I would still rather not see him on the Twins this year. But since he is back and there is nothing we can do about it, we might as well find something to be hopeful about, and this piece of data gave me a slimmer of hope. As we all know, at the end of last year, Pagan was relegated to lower leverage situations and he thrived. In September, he had easily his best month as a Twin, as he held opponents to a .567 OPS in 12.0 IP. This in itself is somewhat encouraging, as there may be a chance that he changed something in his repertoire/approach that led to this success. But I think the actual reason for his success was not because he changed how he pitches, but because he was in less stressful situations. Pagan's career numbers in Low/Medium/High leverage situations Low: 179.1 IP, 5.47 K/BB, 1.51 HR/9, 3.77 FIP Medium: 95.1 IP, 3.71 K/BB, 1,60 HR/9, 4.05 FIP High: 56.0 IP, 2.83 K/BB, 2.73 HR/9, 6.03(!) FIP As we can see, Pagan has a history of thriving in low leverage and struggling in high leverage. While he seems to give up HRs no matter the situation, his 5.47 K/BB in low leverage is tremendous. This number would be a solid 6th out of 46 qualified pitchers in 2023, ahead of aces like Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, Max Fried and Shohei Ohtani. On the other hand, his 6.03 FIP in high leverage is beyond terrible, Of the 347 pitchers that had at least 50 IP in 2023, only 5 had a worse FIP. If this trend was seen for only a single season, it would be best to not read into it too much. But when the sample size is 300+ IP, it is hard to ignore. There are some players that wilt in stressful situations, and Pagan definitely seems like one of them. If the FO realizes this and deploys him in the right situations, Pagan could be a dependable arm in 2023. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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