The History of Fifth Overall Picks

[Matt Braun]

The Twins recently won the 5th overall pick; how much fruit has that slot borne in MLB history?

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

For the Twins, the history of the 5th overall pick is short and straightforward: Nick Gordon and B.J. Garbe. Garbe—an outfielder drafted out of Moses Lake, Washington, in 1999—quickly flamed out in the minors with a bat made of balsa wood. Gordon, however, scrapped through some disappointing minor league seasons to break out with a 113 OPS+ on the Twins last season. He looks to be a future consistent big league ballplayer. 

Side ramble: that Moses Lake team in 1999 also featured future Twin and negative WAR enthusiast Ryan Doumit who went in the 2nd round that year. Jason Cooper, an outfielder also on that team, eschewed a 2nd round selection from the Phillies for Stanford and eventually ended up with the St. Paul Saints. As someone who has frequently driven through that town, Moses Lake is worthwhile only for the gas you need to make it beyond Spokane. To have three legitimate MLB prospects is unheard of. What a weird time.

For major league history as a whole, the 5th overall pick contains fascinating pitchers and hitters, names whose baseball influence flows into the present day and who are necessary to tell baseball’s story. There are three MVP winners, two Cy Young winners, and six players with more than 40 rWAR. But, oddly, no player drafted 5th overall has made the hall of fame.

Let’s look at the list of players with more than 10 rWAR:

 

 

That top six is as strong of a collection of players as you’ll find; add them up, and you have 4 MVP awards, 1 Cy Young award, 28 All-Star selections, 18 Silver Sluggers, 11 Gold Gloves, and 3 Rookie of Year awards. Again, no player resides in the hall—although Dale Murphy owns a strong case, and Buster Posey will surely enter when he’s eligible—but these are all memorable and great players. 

Taking off the nostalgia glasses and looking at only recent picks tells a far less impressive tale:

 

 

Kyle Tucker is good! Very good, in fact. Drew Pomeranz has been inconsistent, but an 11-season MLB career is far from disappointing. Then, errr, Jonathan India had a great rookie season in 2021! And Kyle Wright finally broke out in 2022!

Alright, it’s a mixed class; there are two firmly established big league regulars with a sprinkling of talented players held back by a few flaws they have yet to shed. If you want to be optimistic, every player drafted 5th overall between 2004 and 2019—except for Matt Hobgood in 2009—has at least made the majors, so there’s a good chance the player the Twins draft will impact the big-league club in some fashion. 

While this article is fun, it means almost nothing; invisible forces don’t grip the 5th overall pick, cursing whomever the Twins take to be a Hall of Very Good player. Whoever that player is, their story is up to them, not based on a hex placed by Bubba Starling or Kyle Zimmer. There’s a good chance that player ends up a quality, everyday ballplayer for the Twins, and that’s something to be excited for.

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[MN_ExPat]

Thanks Matt, great write up. Like you said… it (the 5th overall pick) may not actually mean anything significant but it’s a pretty cool look back. I for one appreciate the time and effort that went into it. 
 

Whomever the young man that is picked to be added to the Twins family I say “SKOL!” And May God be with him and his family on a very exciting next step in his journey!

[MN_ExPat]

Also, keep an eye out for this young man 4 years from now. Fast riser with HUGE potential (filthy slider and plus sinker ?)

[mikelink45]

MLB draft is just hard to get excited about - unlike NFL and NBA, the players are lesser known and years away from the Majors.  But let's hope we get a really good one.  I have been excited about Chase Petty (sigh) and Brooks Lee (hope he makes it this year), but often it is late in the draft that so many good players are found. 

[terrydactyls]

Two questions.

1. What does FrRnd stand for?

2. Why is "minors" in parentheses for each person?

[jmlease1]

14 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Two questions.

1. What does FrRnd stand for?

2. Why is "minors" in parentheses for each person?

"FrRnd" = First Round

minors is in parens because the link just takes you to their minor-league stats when you do a search like this in Baseball Reference

[terrydactyls]

30 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

"FrRnd" = First Round

minors is in parens because the link just takes you to their minor-league stats when you do a search like this in Baseball Reference

Thanks

[roger]

2 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

Also, keep an eye out for this young man 4 years from now. Fast riser with HUGE potential (filthy slider and plus sinker ?)

Guessing that’s your Son?

[MN_ExPat]

4 hours ago, roger said:

Guessing that’s your Son?

Yes Sir. So here’s hoping a team is looking for a “crafty” righty when he’s done with college ??. 

[darin617]

i was catfished

 

[MABB1959]

Sadly, they aren't even good at developing 1st round picks.  

[21bdp21]

This looks like a perfect time to post this spread sheet I made. It's a little out of date made it last off season I think.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_fIMrnEV8x44_GeHX-kDq4d4rqoCuTll/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=113796250486978022042&rtpof=true&sd=true

 

[Trov]

I take little weight in the history of 5th overall picks, and what it may mean for Twins.  There are many players taken after the 5th pick that have been great, turns out the team that picked that year were wrong, it happens a lot.  We just need to hopefully guess right. 

In 92, Derek Jeter went 6th overall, none above him were all that great, Phil Nevin 1st and Jeffery Hammond 4th were all-stars, and some guy named Chad Mottola went 5th.  Jeter was first high schooler off the board too. The MLB draft is mostly a crap shoot of trying to figure out if the kid is peaked, or will grow.  

[Ricardo]

I see that the Twins took Bryan Olekars at number 4 in the 82 draft instead of Gooden. I suspect David Kahn was somehow involved in that decision. 

[LewFordLives]

2 hours ago, Ricardo said:

I see that the Twins took Bryan Olekars at number 4 in the 82 draft instead of Gooden. I suspect David Kahn was somehow involved in that decision. 

Those were some BAD draft years. They had the first overall pick the following year and took Tim Belcher, whom they couldn't sign. (Not to mention they passed on some kid named Clemens from the University of Texas.) The following year they took Jay Bell at #8. McGwire went at #10.