Rumor: Rodon seeking six year contract

[mnfireman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/carlos-rodon-rumors-six-year-deal-free-agency.html

View full rumor

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see MN paying what it will take, given what DeGrom and Verlander just got paid. I'm thinking AT LEAST 4 years and $120 million, more like 4/140. That's a lot of money........

[mnfireman]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't see MN paying what it will take, given what DeGrom and Verlander just got paid. I'm thinking AT LEAST 4 years and $120 million, more like 4/140. That's a lot of money........

He wants 6 years.....

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, mnfireman said:

He wants 6 years.....

I saw that....I'm saying I don't think he gets it. But I think he gets at least 4.

[Vanimal46]

He’s the last remaining front line SP on the free agent market. Let the bidding war begin… I think he gets the 6 years, maybe an opt out after year 3 or 4, at $35+ million AAV. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

He’s the last remaining front line SP on the free agent market. Let the bidding war begin… I think he gets the 6 years, maybe an opt out after year 3 or 4, at $35+ million AAV. 

I'm guessing vesting player options for year 5 and 6 based on health. 

Last good SP in free agency.....I just can't see the Twins winning this bidding war. Go trade for a SP and sign a SS or OF (are there any OF we want? no idea).

[Squirrel]

I’ve said all along front end starting pitching … we aren’t signing that. But to go get high end relief pitching

[nicksaviking]

The Yankees have been linked to him, but I just don't see them doing 6 years. That sounds more like something the Angels would do.

And then soon regret it.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Yankees have been linked to him, but I just don't see them doing 6 years. That sounds more like something the Angels would do.

And then soon regret it.

I don't think the Dodgers do that length either. Or Philly (though maybe them). That leave TX and LAA and ? that would go that long?

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Yankees have been linked to him, but I just don't see them doing 6 years.

 

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't think the Dodgers do that length either. Or Philly (though maybe them)

Term length hasn’t been too much of an issue for the large market teams. They can write off the loss much easier than mid market teams. If they really want Rodon, they’ll meet the 6 years. Hell, even tack on a 7th year as leverage.  

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Term length hasn’t been too much of an issue for the large market teams. They can write off the loss much easier than mid market teams. If they really want Rodon, they’ll meet the 6 years. Hell, even tack on a 7th year as leverage.  

They can obviously handle it better than other teams, but the Dodgers haven't been doing long term deals for starting pitchers since Friedman has been there; they tend to get their ace pitchers via the farm or on expiring contracts they trade for.

The Yankees are more desperate and do seem to be the more likely team to make this deal, but they still seem to have been making a concerted effort the last couple of years to stay away from the longer term contract bidding wars. If they want to keep Judge, they'll have to bend to his wishes, will they do it for a second player? One that is a pitcher with a sketchy health history? My bet is the Yankees will offer no more than four years. But that's based on nothing but my gut.

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They can obviously handle it better than other teams, but the Dodgers haven't been doing long term deals for starting pitchers since Friedman has been there; they tend to get their ace pitchers via the farm or on expiring contracts they trade for.

The Yankees are more desperate and do seem to be the more likely team to make this deal, but they still seem to have been making a concerted effort the last couple of years to stay away from the longer term contract bidding wars. If they want to keep Judge, they'll have to bend to his wishes, will they do it for a second player? One that is a pitcher with a sketchy health history? My bet is the Yankees will offer no more than four years. But that's based on nothing but my gut.

There are some other larger markets that could jump in the mix… Toronto, San Diego, Seattle, one of the Chicago teams. 

I will say, it’s quite telling that San Francisco is radio silent in their efforts to retain him. 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

There are some other larger markets that could jump in the mix… Toronto, San Diego, Seattle, one of the Chicago teams. 

I will say, it’s quite telling that San Francisco is radio silent in their efforts to retain him. 

For sure. I personally think 6 years is a boneheaded deal for a guy who's struggled to stay healthy, so in my mind, I'm pairing him up with teams that tend to make boneheaded deals.

Others are more than free to feel more bullish on Rodon's future of course.

[farmerguychris]

I like him but no thanks.  Too much risk for me.

[chpettit19]

I think he's going to have a hard time finding a 6 year deal, but good for him if he can. I agree the Rangers and Angels are the 2 teams most likely to get crazy (because they're the worst run, high spending teams currently), but extra years have been hard to come by with the other big guns (NYY and LAD especially). The big guys are now flexing their spending power on short term, high AAV deals. I wouldn't be surprised by either NY team signing Rodon for 3 years at 40M+ AAV.

As for the Twins in this whole thing, they're pretty clearly out at the numbers being thrown around for front end pitching.

[tony&rodney]

Four years at $120 M or 5/$135 seemed to be the early market. Now, i think someone goes six years, just not the Twins. Who knows - there appears to be plenty of money floating around.

[Heistyman]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Four years at $120 M or 5/$135 seemed to be the early market. Now, i think someone goes six years, just not the Twins. Who knows - there appears to be plenty of money floating around.

Each team just got $30M for the Bamtech sale so that unexpected windfall seems to be burning a whole in the old pockets.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Heistyman said:

Each team just got $30M for the Bamtech sale so that unexpected windfall seems to be burning a whole in the old pockets.

I'll bet the Pirates find a way not to spend their windfall. 

Just a hunch.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

There are some other larger markets that could jump in the mix… Toronto, San Diego, Seattle, one of the Chicago teams. 

I will say, it’s quite telling that San Francisco is radio silent in their efforts to retain him. 

SD likely wants to extend their RF.....so I'm not sure, unless they deal a player off. I agree on Chicago.....CO is badly enough run to do 6 years, but I doubt it. Seattle could afford this, and it would be great for a couple years for them. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

There are some other larger markets that could jump in the mix… Toronto, San Diego, Seattle, one of the Chicago teams. 

I will say, it’s quite telling that San Francisco is radio silent in their efforts to retain him. 

The Sox did the same thing last year and I'm sure SF was grateful. Obviously it's not apples to apples with the term lengths being thrown around, but I wouldn't read too much into SF not jumping into the bidding war. 

[dxpavelka]

Probably looking at 6 years $195 Million for a guy who probably slots in as the 4th best SP in the AL.  We can dream.

[Trov]

Only way Rodon gets 6 years is if a desperate team thinks he is their savor that will carry them, or a team like Phillies who think they are just 1 pitcher away from a ship and will eat the last 3 to 4 years and have a ton of old talent in next 3 years and will deal with huge overpaid guys for many years, like Nationals dealt with to win a Ship 1 year.