Game Thread Twins @ Yankees 3:05 ET 9/7/22

[UpstateNewYorker]

Today The Twins play the Yankees in a doubleheader in the Bronx. Twins fans obviously have nightmares about facing this opponent, especially on their home turf, but fortunately I happen to have at least one fond memory of a Twins-Yankees game in the House of Horrors.

I've always lived in New York State and over the years I've tried to catch the team on their visits to Boston and New York. (My trips to Boston have been much more enjoyable on many levels!) The last game I attended was in May of 2019 against the Yankees in the new Yankee Stadium, which is a monolith and is as far removed from a Fenway-type ball park as you can get. My 20-something daughter and I took a two hour Metro North train ride from my home in the Hudson Valley to the Yankees-East 153rd exit for a Saturday afternoon game at a packed Yankee Stadium. Jake Odorizzi pitched two-hit, shut-out ball for six innings, and Mitch Garver, CJ Cron, and Nelson Cruz went deep (the first two against Yankee starter JA Happ) as the Twins pounded New York 7-3 in a rare win in the Bronx.  

After the game, the two of us and about 40,000 disgruntled Yankee fans all headed for the train station. My daughter and I ended up wedged like sardines into a train car that was SRO, but here's the interesting thing: we were shoulder to shoulder with about 12 other Twins fans! What were the chances? I met a 30-something guy who started following the Twins during the Gardenhire years. He liked how those teams played the game. Another guy had some serious PTSD regarding Joe Nathan's implosions in the playoffs. He couldn't stop recounting Nathan's blown saves, almost pitch-by-pitch. An older man was there with his three adult sons. He said he had recently moved his family from Minnesota to upstate New York. It was great to commiserate with all these Twins fans in the heart of Yankees territory, and it was especially enjoyable to share the day with my daughter. We now have a bucket list item to attend a game at Target Field.

Before we get to the lineups, here is a Spot Quiz: What percentage of doubleheaders in MLB this season have been sweeps? There have been 51 doubleheaders through August 18th, and 23 of them (45%) have ended up as sweeps. Which is higher than I would have expected. My guess is the sheer number of bad teams has contributed to this high percentage. Spot Quiz #2: Where does the term doubleheader originate? A doubleheader refers to a train pulled by a locomotive with two engines, and baseball likely started using the term in the early days when teams traveled exclusively by train.

Game 1 lineup ... Louie Varland takes the hill to make his big league debut against Domingo Herman (2-3)

					TWINS L. Arraez 1B C. Correa SS J. Miranda 3B N. Gordon 2B     G. Urshela DH     K. Garlick RF J. Cave LF G. Sanchez C G. Celestino CF     YANKEES O. Cabrera RF     A. Judge DH     G. Torres 2B     R. Guzman 1B     M. Andujar LF     I. Kiner-Falefa 3B E. Florial CF     K. Higashioka C     O. Peraza SS

[Longdistancetwins]

Will be there today.  Been to many games here since the early 1970s; not many good memories, but, yes, it is a delight to see other Twins fans.

[ashbury]

30 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Before we get to the lineups, here is a Spot Quiz: What percentage of doubleheaders in MLB this season have been sweeps? There have been 51 doubleheaders through August 18th, and 23 of them (45%) have ended up as sweeps. Which is higher than I would have expected. My guess is the sheer number of bad teams has contributed to this high percentage.

If the games were just dumb coin flips, which they obviously are not, the logic would be that some team is going to win that first game, call them Team A*, and then for Team A it's 50/50 whether it wins the rematch.

So then the question for baseball or any sport becomes, what if anything gives Team A a disadvantage relative to dumb coins when the second game starts, as you seem to expect?  Or, does something give Team A an advantage, such as maybe they were the better team in the first place?

The actual outcome you quoted of 45% seems close enough to what you might expect (45-55%?) from flipping pairs of dumb coins 51 times, though.

Or, were you expecting 25%?  That would be the odds of specifying "heads" ahead of time, not just accepting matching outcomes of the two flips.  25% for two heads, plus 25% for two tails, gives the 50% found by the other chain of logic.  (Sorry if this wasn't what you meant.)

* or, just go ahead and call them the Yankees 

[UpstateNewYorker]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

If the games were coin flips, which they obviously are not, the logic would be that some team is going to win that first game, call them Team A*, and then for Team A it's 50/50 whether it wins the rematch.

So then the question for baseball or any sport becomes, what if anything gives Team A a disadvantage when the second game starts, as you seem to expect?  Or, does something give Team A an advantage, such as maybe they were the better team in the first place?

The actual outcome you quoted of 45% seems close enough to what you might expect (45-55%?) from flipping pairs of coins 51 times, though.

* or, just go ahead and call them the Yankees 

Good point!  I guess the old adage that it's hard to sweep a DH is not necessarily true.

[CRF]

I'll be watching and keeping my fingers crossed not to get swept today. I'm not asking for much, am I? For once I'd like to go in there and kick ten kinds of dog crap outta the Yankees! I am looking forward to seeing Varland.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

33 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Twins fans obviously have nightmares about facing this opponent, especially on their home turf

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Good point!  I guess the old adage that it's hard to sweep a DH is not necessarily true.

It's hard (25%) for your particular team to sweep.  But it's also hard for your opponent, and we just never notice that.

None of this alleged logic has the slightest bearing where it comes to the Yankees.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Great setup, @UpstateNewYorker !!

We are counting on you to bring home the 1-1 split today  

 

(asking for a sweep is asking for trouble from the baseball gods)

[ashbury]

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I though I read somewhere once that double headers were 70-75 percent likely to end in splits? 

which defies probability, yes, so something else at work?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I feel like the Twins played a doubleheader in the Bronx in ‘87 and also got swept, and that one of the games they jumped out to a 7-1 lead but still lost. 

also, my memory is not to be trusted much lately 
 

[RpR]

IF, if the Twins win the first game they will win both.

They beat them 8-1 once this year, and I still see Cruz hopping down the baseline in one of the Twins few bright spots last year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

10 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I feel like the Twins played a doubleheader in the Bronx in ‘87 and also got swept, and that one of the games they jumped out to a 7-1 lead but still lost. 

also, my memory is not to be trusted much lately 
 

Ok so no such thing exists, but on July 7 of that season (I got the season right!) the Twins lost a game 12-7 while taking a 7-0 lead into the bottom of the seventh, and the next day lost 13-4.

[Danchat]

It's shocking to see the Yankees' lineup emaciated like this - Guzman hitting at the #4 spot? He was literally just called up after not being in the majors since 2021. But they'll still likely beat us all the same!

[Squirrel]

Just don’t pitch to Judge and I will consider that a success

[RpR]

Maybe it is wishful thinking but I remember Judge was not the feared batter he is supposed to be in the games earlier this year.

[stringer bell]

Great intro. Thanks UpstateNewYorker! The Yankees aren’t what they were in the first 100 games. Unfortunately, the Twins aren’t what they were invtge first 50 games. I hope the team can provide Varland with offensive  and defensive support. 

[CRF]

Yeah way Jose!

[Dave The Dastardly]

Jose!!!!!

[Aggies7]

LETS GOOOO

[RpR]

AHH, short fences bits the Yankees for once, LOL!

Miranda puts fear of Twins bats in the Yankees.

[CRF]

I know it's a make up, middle of the week, day game...but that's as empty as I think I've ever seen Yankee Stadium. There's nobody there. 

[Aggies7]

LETS GOOOO

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Today The Twins play the Yankees in a doubleheader in the Bronx. Twins fans obviously have nightmares about facing this opponent, especially on their home turf, but fortunately I happen to have at least one fond memory of a Twins-Yankees game in the House of Horrors.

I've always lived in New York State and over the years I've tried to catch the team on their visits to Boston and New York. (My trips to Boston have been much more enjoyable on many levels!) The last game I attended was in May of 2019 against the Yankees in the new Yankee Stadium, which is a monolith and is as far removed from a Fenway-type ball park as you can get. My 20-something daughter and I took a two hour Metro North train ride from my home in the Hudson Valley to the Yankees-East 153rd exit for a Saturday afternoon game at a packed Yankee Stadium. Jake Odorizzi pitched two-hit, shut-out ball for six innings, and Mitch Garver, CJ Cron, and Nelson Cruz went deep (the first two against Yankee starter JA Happ) as the Twins pounded New York 7-3 in a rare win in the Bronx.  

After the game, the two of us and about 40,000 disgruntled Yankee fans all headed for the train station. My daughter and I ended up wedged like sardines into a train car that was SRO, but here's the interesting thing: we were shoulder to shoulder with about 12 other Twins fans! What were the chances? I met a 30-something guy who started following the Twins during the Gardenhire years. He liked how those teams played the game. Another guy had some serious PTSD regarding Joe Nathan's implosions in the playoffs. He couldn't stop recounting Nathan's blown saves, almost pitch-by-pitch. An older man was there with his three adult sons. He said he had recently moved his family from Minnesota to upstate New York. It was great to commiserate with all these Twins fans in the heart of Yankees territory, and it was especially enjoyable to share the day with my daughter. We now have a bucket list item to attend a game at Target Field.

Before we get to the lineups, here is a Spot Quiz: What percentage of doubleheaders in MLB this season have been sweeps? There have been 51 doubleheaders through August 18th, and 23 of them (45%) have ended up as sweeps. Which is higher than I would have expected. My guess is the sheer number of bad teams has contributed to this high percentage. Spot Quiz #2: Where does the term doubleheader originate? A doubleheader refers to a train pulled by a locomotive with two engines, and baseball likely started using the term in the early days when teams traveled exclusively by train.

Game 1 lineup ... Louie Varland takes the hill to make his big league debut against Domingo Herman (2-3)

					TWINS L. Arraez 1B C. Correa SS J. Miranda 3B N. Gordon 2B     G. Urshela DH     K. Garlick RF J. Cave LF G. Sanchez C G. Celestino CF     YANKEES O. Cabrera RF     A. Judge DH     G. Torres 2B     R. Guzman 1B     M. Andujar LF     I. Kiner-Falefa 3B E. Florial CF     K. Higashioka C     O. Peraza SS

Obscure stat:  Mets just won 1st game against Pitt today...going for 5th doubleheader sweep tonight  deGrom pitching

My NL team is Mets

[Aggies7]

Quick worker. Thanks minor league pitch clock

[LVTwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Just don’t pitch to Judge and I will consider that a success

I’d rather see a K, that’s real success

[CRF]

Just now, Aggies7 said:

Quick worker. Thanks minor league pitch clock

100% agree. It's nice to see a pitcher get the ball back from the catcher and throw the next one, instead of putzing around. 

[Aggies7]

Already has done better than 98% of twins pitchers against the Yankees 

[ashbury]

Fun so far!

[Dave The Dastardly]

Louie! Louie!~