Pre-emptive Kevin Correia Is Great and You're All Dumb Thread

[jay]

We get one of these after each Correia start, so I'll just beat [insert random antagonist with 50 posts or less] to it. Yes... all Twins fans hope he pitches extremely well all year long and next year as well, even if it means that the vast majority of us were wrong. Please keep the expectations reasonable!

 

The strib and Kevin himself after yesterday's start:

Correia, now 3-1 with 2.33 ERA this season, said the breaking ball he struck out Beltre on wasn’t that good of a pitch.

“I don’t know what people were expecting,” he said. “I’m only five starts in. I’m not going to be pitching on a high all year. I’m going to have some starts where it doesn’t work. But it is nice to get off to a nice start when I go to a new team.”

To manage expectations, keep in mind that Correia is the first Twins pitcher to start a season with five quality starts (at least six innings, no more than three earned runs) in a row since Ramon Ortiz in 2007.

Again, that’s Ramon. Ortiz.

[Nick Nelson]

Nice to hear that he's realistic and frank in assessing himself. And good on him for the strong start. It won't last forever -- as he admits -- but right now I'm happy to shut up and enjoy the ride.

[Twins Twerp]

This is a nice thread you can look back to and say: "I told you so" when Correia struggles.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm with Nick.....good for him for being realistic, and glad to enjoy being wrong so far. It's much more fun to watch good baseball than 7 runs given up in 3 innings baseball....

[fairweather]

I was as negative about the Correia signing as anyone, but it starting to look like he might be closer to Rick Reed than Jason Marquis. Fine with me. I haven't been this happy to be wrong since Carl Pavano won 17.

[fairweather]

Also I feel the need to give credit where it's due. Rick Anderson has tweaked Correia's delivery just enough to ensure that Correia consistently stays down in the zone.

[jay]

This is a nice thread you can look back to and say: "I told you so" when Correia struggles.

 

I think there's plenty of ammunition around TD for "I told you so" on Correia already. Hopefully, we won't have any reason to. If we do, I'm also hopeful we won't hear chirps after a bad start or two or even three.

[Riverbrian]

I have been wrong a million times so I won't type the words "I told you so". Oops I actually just typed "I told you so" and I just did it again... but hopefully the context is understandable.

 

I really feel I'm in good position here... Because I was not one of those who were wringing their hands over the Correia signing in the off-season. I looked at his game by game logs from last year and the year before and thought to myself... If he can just do what he did last year he will work out great for us... Maybe not amazing(like he has been so far) but I thought he could give us the chance to win some games and that was something we didn't have a lot of in 2012.

 

On TD... Correia was the poster boy for a failed off season. We were all feeling good (most of us) about the Span and Revere trades and that good feeling went away hard as soon as Correia was inked to a contract. Very few were talking about Worley, May and Meyer anymore... OMG Correia had taken over the sentiment of TD.

 

I won't stand here and type ". .... ... .." It's a long season... I think it's prudent to wait... For actual failure before being upset.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I don't think anybody expected him to be great, and I certainly expect some regression to his historical numbers. That being said, there was a lot of negative ink here in the offseason predicting he would be worse than Marquis, and it certainly did feel like there were some who were eagerly anticipating an April meltdown so they could say "we told you so" and lambast the front office again.

 

Personally, I would be happy for him just to keep us competitive more often than not, and give the offense a chance to win (if they ever decide to start hitting again). If he can keep it so we're not hopelessly behind by the third inning, I'll be happy and think he was a worthwhile acquisition.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think anybody expected him to be great, and I certainly expect some regression to his historical numbers. That being said, there was a lot of negative ink here in the offseason predicting he would be worse than Marquis, and it certainly did feel like there were some who were eagerly anticipating an April meltdown so they could say "we told you so" and lambast the front office again.

 

While I agree that he received a ton of negative ink, I think the bolded is a bit of an exaggeration. Jason Marquis posted an 8.47 ERA in seven starts. Correia would really have to give it the ol' college try to be worse than Jason.

[Badsmerf]

/Fail

I'm happy for KC, the Twins, and the fans he is performing well. Lets not get carried away and flame for the sake of flaming. He's not going to pitch like this every game, but at least he is showing he is capable of making quality starts. I doubt the wheels will fall off like Ramon Ortiz. I just don't see why people have to be vindictive about a player's performance.

 

Yes, many people were negative about it. Many felt like it was a bad financial commitment for 2 seasons of 5th starter upside. There were in-house options that were cheap whom could fill in a put up similar numbers. Obviously, the sample so far shows KC is giving the Twins their money's worth. It is also early, and hyperventilating about posters wanting the front office to make better decisions.

[Guest USAFChief]

I hope my currently-proven-foolish offseason opinions on signing KC look even more foolish as time goes by. I'd much rather TR be proven right than me.

[Top Gun]

I was wrong and I'm happy to have him on the team. I hope he can keep it going all season Go and keep up the good work Correia!

[johnnydakota]

I have been wrong a million times so I won't type the words "I told you so". Oops I actually just typed "I told you so" and I just did it again... but hopefully the context is understandable.

 

I really feel I'm in good position here... Because I was not one of those who were wringing their hands over the Correia signing in the off-season. I looked at his game by game logs from last year and the year before and thought to myself... If he can just do what he did last year he will work out great for us... Maybe not amazing(like he has been so far) but I thought he could give us the chance to win some games and that was something we didn't have a lot of in 2012.

 

On TD... Correia was the poster boy for a failed off season. We were all feeling good (most of us) about the Span and Revere trades and that good feeling went away hard as soon as Correia was inked to a contract. Very few were talking about Worley, May and Meyer anymore... OMG Correia had taken over the sentiment of TD.

 

I won't stand here and type ". .... ... .." It's a long season... I think it's prudent to wait... For actual failure before being upset.

 

Well not all of us felt good about trading proven mlb players for a maybe and a posible ....

At least when the now was ignored, as for Mr. Correia, is he this years R.A. Dickey?

His career stats tells us he is a fast starter, dont get me wrong, i luv when he goes 7+ innings and gives up 2 or 3 runs,but i dont expect it to last and i expected better from our G.M..It was owed to us , as fans who bought 9 million tickets to the worst show in the American leaque ....even a broken watch is right twice a day , and once again Ryan got lucky so far....

[gil4]

"We get one of these after each Correia start..."

 

I hope we keep the tradition up for the rest of this year and all of the next. When KC collects his Cy Young award(s) I will be the happiest wrong person in the world (except maybe Chief.)

 

I know that's not the standard even those who supported the deal are expecting, but even the realist optimistic projections are no sure thing even now. It's fairly common for pitchers who suddenly flip the switch on to just as suddenly flip it back off again.

 

it's fun watching a team that isn't constantly down 6-0 in the 4th, which is what the previous 2 years seemed like.. I hope it continues.

[gil4]

...there was a lot of negative ink here in the offseason predicting he would be worse than Marquis.

 

I think the critics said it was a worse signing than the Marquis one. The contracts (1 yr/$3M vs. 2/$10M) were the main factors. Correia doesn't have to pitch worse than Marquis to make it a worse signing. At the price, an ERA over 5 would get him there. If he keeps hanging sliders like the one Beltre missed, he will get there.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I was as negative about the Correia signing as anyone, but it starting to look like he might be closer to Rick Reed than Jason Marquis. Fine with me. I haven't been this happy to be wrong since Carl Pavano won 17.

 

I was actually thinking about Pavano--after an earlier start--a guy who came here with nothing the past couple of years and did (moderately) well. Will KC regress--probably. Can he give us 15 quality starts leading to 10-12 wins--most definitely. That would be a reasonable return.

 

I actually figured we would get this from Pelfrey--but he looks more like Marquis.

[Ultima Ratio]

I'm surprised there isn't a "Is it time to extend Correia?" thread already with all the Pollyannaish finger waving. Let's hope he keeps it up, but let's not get carried away and let's not petulantly try to "rub it in" -- let's stay above that.

[drivlikejehu]

I was against it at the time and haven't changed my mind at all. Correia has unsustainable LOB% and HR% numbers. He's not a different guy. Signing him for two years made no sense then and still doesn't.

 

Pitching performances are not evenly distributed. Mediocre pitchers have 'good' stretches all the time. It's just part of the game. Getting all worked up over it shows a lack of understanding.

[cmathewson]

We could look at his peripherals relative to the last few years and see some things that represent deviations from his career averages. For example, walks. He'd currently walking 1.2 batters per nine innings. His career average is 3.2. He's currently surrendering 0.5 HR/9, while his career average is 1.1. And his current K rate is 3/9, while his career average is 5.9. Though that is a drop from his career average, his K/BB is at 3.0; his career average is 1.88.

 

Those are the relevant fielding-independent stats, indicating that this good stretch is not just a matter of luck or better fielding behind him. He's also demonstrating better control than he has throughout his career. If that continues, he will certainly have a better year than he's had in a long while.

[drivlikejehu]

It's not really about fielding for the most part. Correia has been lucky as to when he gave up hits (no one in scoring position) and is lucky to have allowed so few home runs. He actually has a below-average (high) rate of home runs allowed per fly ball in his 10 previous seasons combined; it won't be long before the balls are peppering outfield seats.

[cmathewson]

It's not really about fielding for the most part. Correia has been lucky as to when he gave up hits (no one in scoring position) and is lucky to have allowed so few home runs. He actually has a below-average (high) rate of home runs allowed per fly ball in his 10 previous seasons combined; it won't be long before the balls are peppering outfield seats.

 

Some of that is park effect. The last time he was close to this on HRs, he pitched for San Diego. Last time I checked, home runs were not counted as a matter of luck. Pitching in Target Field should help him vs. PNC.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Some of that is park effect. The last time he was close to this on HRs, he pitched for San Diego. Last time I checked, home runs were not counted as a matter of luck. Pitching in Target Field should help him vs. PNC.

 

It's possible that his homers will drop a bit but he's also pitching in the AL now. And given Target Field's 2012, it's hard to say just how much of a pitching park it is when the weather warms.

 

Also, Correia's BABIP is .269. That's probably due for a regression to .300.

 

In other words, still a lot of variables out there. I hope he continues to pleasantly surprise us all but I'm still not convinced he's going to do it.

[drivlikejehu]

Some of that is park effect. The last time he was close to this on HRs, he pitched for San Diego. Last time I checked, home runs were not counted as a matter of luck. Pitching in Target Field should help him vs. PNC.

 

Well, actually, most MLB pitchers allow home runs on about 10% of fly balls. It's rare to be much above or below that. Matt Cain is an example of a guy who has a track record of not allowing that many.

 

But, as it turns out, Correia might be an exception as well. In a bad way. Between 2010-2012, of the 76 pitchers who threw 450+ innings, Correia was 3rd worst. And that included 1 season in San Diego and 2 in Pittsburgh; the two who did worse (Mike Leake and AJ Burnett) both pitched in tougher environments (NY 2010-11 for Burnett since he joined Pittsburgh in 2012).

 

Correia's current 4.8% rate is certain to rise dramatically. If he's really lucky, it might only double. That would allow him to potentially have an ERA in the low-4s if he doesn't walk anyone. But, realistically, it probably is going to more than double. He is going to get bashed, sooner or later.

[Oxtung]

I thought he could give us the chance to win some games and that was something we didn't have a lot of in 2012.

 

Personally, I would be happy for him just to keep us competitive more often than not, and give the offense a chance to win (if they ever decide to start hitting again). If he can keep it so we're not hopelessly behind by the third inning, I'll be happy and think he was a worthwhile acquisition.

 

 

I think these quotes highlight the difference between those OK with the KC signing and those left wanting more. Some just see it as an upgrade to last year (which in my mind is/was no sure thing) while others look at what could have been.

 

When I go to Murray's steakhouse the chicken might be better than I can make at home but it's the New York Strip steak that get's my mouth watering.

[cmathewson]

It's possible that his homers will drop a bit but he's also pitching in the AL now. And given Target Field's 2012, it's hard to say just how much of a pitching park it is when the weather warms.

 

Also, Correia's BABIP is .269. That's probably due for a regression to .300.

 

In other words, still a lot of variables out there. I hope he continues to pleasantly surprise us all but I'm still not convinced he's going to do it.

 

Good points. Also, I was wrong about PNC park effects. It has a rating of -83, whereas Target has a rating of -92.

[jay]

Good points. Also, I was wrong about PNC park effects. It has a rating of -83, whereas Target has a rating of -92.

 

Kudos to you, sir, for backing up more of your posts lately.

[Riverbrian]

I'll let others discuss luck and BABIP and that stuff.

 

Thus Far... I've seen all of Correia starts and I think he's lucky because no one is hitting him very hard. Is that luck or good pitching? Personally I'll go with the latter.

 

Watch Pelfrey and they are hitting him hard. Even the outs are stroked with Pelfrey. You can see a clear difference.

 

It's my opinion... but I think Correia has earned his numbers so far.

[Brandon]

Well, If Correia makes it to 11 starts and is still pitching this good he will have earned his money this year as he is getting paid 1/3 of an ace salary and 11 starts is about 1/3 of a seaason. So he still has a ways to go. But my main problem with signing him was the 2nd year. So i wont agree with this signing unless he pitches great all year with 200+ innings or he does well (sub 4.00 era and close to 7 innings per start) for at least half a season next year.

[Boom Boom]

Doesn't anyone think that a guy with Correia's lengthy track record can suddenly emerge as a Cy Young candidate?

 

Me neither.

 

Some of it is luck and some of it is hitters who haven't seen much of him.